NFL DFS Picks for Friday Night Showdown, Eagles vs Packers: FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Advice

what's up everybody we are back really quickly once again with some NFL DFS picks and lineup advice this time for the single game Showdown slate for Friday Night Football that's right the rare Friday night game Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Bay Packers welcome I'm Brian Jester co-founder here to occupy fantasy here to help you out with your fanuel and DraftKings lineups for tonight's single game Showdown slate what we'll do in this video we will talk about the injuries that impact the Slate unlike last night we actually have a few injuries to monitor heading into practice squad elevations and pregame and actives we will discuss lowrisk lineup construction tips and we'll give picks strategies and ideas for the largest contest on both FanDuel and DraftKings so let's not waste any time let's jump into it and let's talk about these injuries that impact the Slate uh and we'll start on Philadelphia side now uh if you watched our videos last year you know that we highlight defensive injuries defensive injuries that many other sites or content creators may not discuss uh because they do impact the slate and if we look on Philadelphia side offense is healthy however they're missing two guys on defense two guys expected to be starters middle linebacker Devin white who may be uh addition by subtraction uh given his play in the last couple of Seasons uh but he's been rotating at middle linebacker I don't think that'll make too big of an impact because they do have other guys whove been working with the first team in practice may not be a drop off may be an improvement in fact the big injury though is to the their starting outside corner Isaiah Rogers so Rogers was expected to start on the outside he's dealing with an injury he will not play they still have Darius Slay on one side they have the rookie who's going to play inside outside uh but either way there's going to be a backup Corner uh for the Eagles tonight and that means good news for the outside receivers free Green Bay so we'll bump them up a little bit in our projections Romeo dobs uh Christian Watson and Davian Wicks so give those guys a slight manual bump in your own projections uh based on the defensive injury for for Philadelphia now Green Bay is where we're looking at three questionable guys who on a a classic slate a 12 gamer we wouldn't even consider these injuries to be impactful but every injury and every player matters in Showdown those three guys will start at tight end Tucker craft let's scroll down here let's find him where is he he is Tucker craft where are you buddy there he is tuck craft 2,800 bucks he is officially questionable he was added to the injury report after practice on Tuesday with a back injury and while Green Bay is and this will be a theme on Green Bay Showdown slates and for classic slates their medical staff been there forever notoriously conservative when it comes to injuries now I don't think that applies to Tucker crafts here because judging by the reporters who have watched him in practice in Brazil this week they said he's been moving normally practicing is normal so while he has the official questionable tag we don't expect uh him to be bothered or even be out tonight the one uh note the one uh sign that he will be out is the elevations at 4 pm Eastern when they have to elevate guys from the practice squad they would likely Elevate Andrew Beck fullback tight end hybrid so if he gets elevated it's probably bad news for T of craft so let's keep that in mind uh but we do expect craft to play tonight the other situation is the running backs especially important on this showdown slate rookie Marshon Lloyd who I have way too much of in baseball he is officially questionable as is the other running back on the active roster Emanuel Wilson now if you played preseason DFS you know Emanuel Wilson got tons of carries uh all throughout the preseason of the two we expect Emanuel Wilson to play and marshan Lloyd to sit Lloyd is dealing with a hamstring injury it's been a multi-week issue and he even had a rest day that was built into the return to play protocol according to head coach Matt laflor we would not expect someone to have a built-in rest day coming off a hamstring injury without a full week of practice to step in and play on Friday night uh and that's the case for Lloyd so again pair that with uh Green Bay conservative nature in their return to play for their players we do not expect marshan lyd to play now Emanuel Wilson he's been limited all week it's been like a it sounds like a hip pointer a hip issue uh but not a multi-week issue and so we expect him to play and suit up uh and again this could be wrong this is how I'm reading it this early on Friday you do this thing long enough you start to read between the lines you start to understand how injuries work uh and that's our start Reed again this could change Lloyd could be active in Wilson kppi uh but we'll know that for sure uh this game is at 8:15 so we'll know around 6:45 p.m. Eastern on who's officially active now if one or both of these guys are out we'll know because of similar to Tucker craft situation we'll know what the practice squad elevations at 4M two guys traveled with the team to Brazil again this game is in Brazil so uh two guys traveled with the team L Michel pery at $200 as well as Ellis Merryweather at uh at $200 both these guys travel with the team and if both guys are out both guys meaning marshan Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson then we'll see elevations of both Merryweather and Peron if just one is out I imagine it's Merryweather since they've been with the team longer regardless if Lloyd is out we'll see one of these two running backs active uh elevated from the practice squad if none of these guys are elevated that means all three will be active uh Jacobs Lloyd and uh and Emanuel Wilson so lots to say about the injuries and while again on a classic slate it made not matter these these guys will matter on uh on Showdown slates because their value plays Emanuel Wilson just $2,400 Tucker craft is $2,800 if craft is out his backup Ben Sims is $200 men price so this will be extremely important to monitor throughout the day and don't worry our daily plug and our occupy model will be updated as soon as we get news throughout the day over on occupy fantasy.com all right let's uh discuss low-risk contests 50-50s double UPS head to heads and uh try to attack those contests tonight last night was difficult for those contests it's a little similar tonight where we have two stud quarterbacks stud receivers on both sides so it does make it difficult to build a lowrisk lineup uh if you listened yesterday if you watched our content you read our daily plugs you know we tried to lock up all the scoring and lowrisk contest which means play both quarterbacks both bcal running backs that way if a touchdown is scored in the game we have access to it um that can be difficult sometimes especially when guys are expensive like tonight uh and we also want to play any obvious values that's actually the case on FanDuel tonight which is rare so we'll get over there in a second but if we try to do our normal strategy of lock up allall the scoring Jaylen Herz Jordan love saquon Barkley Josh Jacobs Josh Jacobs lead back coming over from the Raiders if you missed any offseason news zon Barkley coming over from the Giants now the lead back for Philly uh so 3350 per player that's not too bad now if we get something like Ben Sims tight end two then we can play 6,500 Jaden Reed or if let's say somehow Lloyd and Mar and uh and are both out we play $200 LS Merryweather same situation so it's actually going to be extremely important if Tucker craft is in we play him 3900 that's a little difficult if Emanuel Wilson is the guy who's the running back to tonight 4,300 still a little difficult because we can't get up to a kicker or a secondary player here so I'm not really sure this is the best way we could Captain Jacobs or Barkley um or you could just leave out someone like Barkley which is scary to do and play let's see here so we played let's say Emanuel Wilson as our punt play in Jacobs then we could play uh let's do Jaden Reed where is he 73 Romeo dobs so there are options here really what we're looking for are the inactives they're extremely important on DraftKings tonight for low-risk contest because if we get one or two of those guys that are questionable out it really opens up lowrisk lineups and small field and large field high-risk lineups as well so it's moniter so try to fit in the core four of the two quarterbacks and two running backs play the best value play and then fill in what's from there now on FanDuel surprisingly unsurprisingly we can't play both quarterbacks both running backs they're too expensive 1,500 we have to leave out one of these guys however the mispricing I was alluding to earlier is Donavan Wicks he's only $6,500 so yes he is technically the wide receiver four on the depth chart however he's going to rotate in he was their most efficient receiver last year these guys the Packers are loaded with efficient talented young receivers Jaden Reed Romeo dobs and uh Christian Watson in addition to donante Tavian Wix so Wicks despite being a wide receiver four on paper wide receiver 3A 3B whatever you want to call it he's going to play 30 plus snaps tonight and at that at that price tag he is far too good to ignore we expect him to be the by far the most popular option in this range so you play him at Flex not a captain or or not an MVP uh let's see here uh and then you play Herz love and we prefer Jacobs over Barkley with the Thousand savings and the uncertainty behind him at running back to 8,500 per player you can actually play a kicker kickers are just 8,500 or 8K tonight on FanDuel so this is probably the way to go for FanDuel lowrisk lineups tonight again barring any news but this is even if the news hits this is how you want to approach it on FanDuel lowrisk lineups tonight and again talking about the news I know the game is in Brazil and I know Twitter is blacked out in Brazil but this is you know 2024 there are other ways to get information if this is a preseason slate yes it may be a little difficult with who's on the field uh live reporting but you know this is a regular season game National reports we'll get who's playing and who's not well ahead of time uh no scrambling so despite Twitter being blacked out in Brazil that won't be an issue for reporting tonight all right let's go back to Draft Kings and let's transition into high-risk contests water sip we're hydrated we're good to go and large Field small field gpps high-risk we talk about contests that are exponential in payouts where risk a little bit of money you can win a lot of money and uh really what you want to do in high-risk contest we have a few strategies that we outline in our strategy guide at occupy fantasy.com our Showdown strategy guide as well as in our daily plug but you need a couple points of differenti differentiation from your low-risk lineups and depending on how large the contest is how risk adverse you are that'll determine how many points of differentiation you need in your lineups if you if you start with small field gpps think of less than 200 players contest less than 200 players that classify as high risk you only need one point of differentiation roughly that's one player less than 25 20% owned so I'll name a couple guys here that make sense for that for small field differentiation here you want to play most of the guys that are in our low-risk player pool mix in one or two of these guys in your small field gpps uh and that is certainly enough to do uh to get different and get to the top of your small field contest guys that are under 20% according to projected ownership at occupy fantasy.com it's in the model it's in the lineup Builder uh the defenses and the kickers both now Elliott may get over 20% I don't expect him to this could be like last night where we have both kickers projected for under 20% and the favorite kicker gets over 20% like uh Harrison bucker did so I would expect that with Jake Elliot however Braden narison if you don't know who he is don't worry most people don't anytime there's a nonbrain a brand name kicker like narison their ownership is automatically increased adding the fact there's another kick in their player pool Alex hail who's actually not going to kick it's just the narvis and show for Green Bay and people get confused they don't want to click on a kicker with when a team has two projections sometimes miss it no one wants to click on a guy named Braden narvis and they've never heard of so he'll be like 10% owned fantastic leverage play as a kicker at 10% in small field Showdown contest and in large field Showdown contest as well uh the defenses didn't pan out last night looking for a lower scoring defensive game but again as we said said yesterday's video that's going to be a popular and profitable strategy over the course of the season if you play a defense in every lineup you would assuredly end up profitable by the end of the year uh so maybe some jet lag flying down to Brazil who knows some turnovers a defense on the lineup is certainly low owned and can obviously get you there if you build the right way Kenneth gainwell we expect saquon Barkley to be the lead back and while we don't expect it to be as dramatic as what we saw with Derrick Henry and Justice Hill last night if saquon Barkley is takes off a few snaps we've seen gameel be the the two-minute guy here in this offense before he could certainly rack it up he's $2,000 cheaper than Justice Hill was yesterday and again don't expect that performance but K game well going to see some passing down snaps going to mix in he's certainly a low owned option can save you salary as well what about Jan doson wide receiver three now for Philadelphia traded from Washington late in the preseason they were not happy at all with any of their receiving options Dawson is going to slide into the wide receiver three roll will he be fully up the speed likely not but talented and enough to get on the field at $3,200 we have him under 20% projected own in fact under 10% projected own on DraftKings and then of course the Green Bay elevation beneficiaries monitor most of these guys are going to be under 20% whether it's uh Tucker craft Ben Sims whether it's Emanuel Wilson marshan Lloyd or God forbid one of the other two Green Bay running backs on the practice squad and like last night again do not expect a repeat of last night but sucker craft is 2,800 the tight end one supposedly is Luke Musgrave $4,600 and while my best ball exposures will have you believe as well as his 8p that Luke Musgrave is the tight end one here was drafted higher last year earlier in the season before he got hurt was the tight end one over Tucker craft but as he eased back into action late last year Tucker craft was a tight end one over Luke Musgrave and while craft has been dealing with the issue of his own all offseason that's why we believe and that's why musra is priced higher there's a chance craft either out produces or out snaps Luke Musgrave here so Tucker craft $2,800 going to be low owned like that as well but so is Luke Musgrave he's going to be low owned as well so everyone just wants to play the receivers in this game uh definitely not the tight ends or the running backs uh below 5K so Musgrave craft both 20% sub 20% options for your small field or large field gpps now if we talk about large field gpps 1 million to First once again tonight on DraftKings FanDuel has 100K to first so drop down but I'm sure you'd be happy with the 100K if you want it right so let's talk about some high-risk large field strategies your mass multi- entering we do not advise people to enter one line in P these contests you want to enter 20 plus ideally 150 plus if you're entering these but this also goes for the 20 Max contest as well last night didn't pan out but doesn't mean a one game sample should dictate our strategy for future slates last night the Field built Kansas City heavy tonight they're actually going to build Green Bay heavy and not because Green Bay is favored Philadelphia is favored but because Green Bay has so many more affordable uh and just a pure volume of guys that will be involved in their offense there's only so many guys to play from Philly AJ Brown devont Smith saquon Barkley Dallas GD Jaylen Herz and then everyone else is a question mark whereas Green Bay you have Jordan love Josh Jacobs all four receivers and then the tight ends so the field is actually going to build more Green Bay heavy tonight if you build Philadelphia heavy or more Balan that is certainly one way to get different without sacrificing too much ownership or uh projection otherwise we talked about the defensive angle already playing a defense and your high-risk lineups as well I really like the secondary captains and MVPs tonight if you look at FanDuel Jordan love and Jaylen Herz are going to account for 75% of the MVP ownership and we have AJ Brown Devonta Smith known guys who can go for 100 yards and multi touchdowns all the guys on Green can go for 100 yards and a touchdown they could easily be the highest score and considering the salary multiplier on DraftKings really like those guys dobs Reed Wicks and Christian Watson as Captain options tonight in small field and large field gpps all of them will be under 10% more than likely 10% ownership uh and they have the ability to break the slate and allow you to fit in one extra stud because they are cheaper so that's probably my favorite strategy tonight is playing a Green Bay wide receiver at captain on DraftKings or any receiver at MVP over on FanDuel uh let's talk about the the trash plays uh Isaiah likely we didn't call him a trash play we actually had him above the trash play threshold uh but these are guys who we expect to be less than 5% owned in gpps that could break the Slate save some salary let's once again remind you of the beneficiaries we will know at at 4 p.m. Eastern who is elevated from the practice squad for Green Bay we will know at 6:45 p.m. Eastern who is active for Green Bay but the backup running backs backup tight ends uh Ben Sims especially uh could be considered a trash play depending on who's active uh next we have uh playing his role as the number three running back white guy it is uh Carson steel last night it is Will Shipley tonight now will Shipley much higher drafted much more athletic much more Dynamic much more College production but he's going to be behind saquon Barkley and he's going to be behind Kenneth gainwell but if he gets a couple touches here and there he is $2,000 also remember steel was $200 last night so Shipley more expensive uh but higher pedigree could get some catches here he's $2,000 we don't expect him to be more than a couple percent owns if Jan Dawson is not up for a full rle we have rookie Johnny Wilson for Philadelphia and he is just $600 he was actually their wide receiver three throughout Camp faded down the stretch caused them to trade for Jan doson so Johnny Wilson will'll play some snaps tonight Briton kovi is mostly The Return Man he was productive when he got the chance in preseason he could get some offensive snaps tonight he's only $400 now they could also Elevate someone Paris Campbell's on the practice squad a couple other guys on the practice squad uh so watch out for their elevations as well if Paris Campbell's elevated he could easily slide into the wide receiver three roll tonight despite not being on the active roster this morning and Paris Campbell by the way $200 I know Chris our NFL manager big Paris Campbell fan he will be all on board if uh Paris Campbell is elevated from the active roster really like him in large field gpps if he's activated not even guaranteed that he's activated all right I think that covers it we talked about non quarterback MVPs at FanDuel for large field we talked about the trash place here playing uh Philadelphia heavy lineups playing Green Bay receiver at captain on DraftKings and again I know I've said it maybe five times in this video monitor the elevations if you don't know how to do it yourself just subscribe to occupy fantasy.com our daily plug will update you as well as our occupy model and we'll be posted in Discord as well occupy fantasy.com Discord links in the description I'll be posting updates in there all day uh because it will impact the Slate unlike last night where we could set it and forget it not the case tonight you don't want to build your lineups at least until 4 p.m. Eastern or at least have your base set and then tweak after 4 P p.m. uh you will not be able to finalize your lineup before 4 p.m. Eastern today uh a little bit of uh housekeeping here so we do not do Sunday night videos here on the channel so the next time you'll see me you'll actually see me tomorrow moose uh co-founder and I will go over the main slate uh in a live Q&A so make sure you subscribe to the channel here get notified when we go live tomorrow our NFL manager Chris will drop the main slate preview video tonight like I do for The Showdown videos Chris does it for the entire main slate that'll drop this evening after this game locks and then Monday night I'll be back with The Showdown video for Monday Night Football and uh yeah so make sure you subscribe like I said yesterday I'm a YouTube junkie so I'm always on YouTube if I'm subscribed to the channel their recommended videos or the new videos will just pop up on my feed if you're not on YouTube all the time click the Bell notification here on YouTube that way you'll get a notification on your phone or your tablet that uh we posted the video so again we got four more videos coming this weekend make sure you check it out and again occupi fantasy.com is where you get our daily plug the rundown for this slate and for the main slate coming later tonight as well as projector ownership and our rankings for every slate on fan D in draftking so Brian Jester for occupy fantasy thank you for listening as always good luck and enjoy tonight's rare Friday night Showdown sleep