Best NFL Player Props for SNF Tonight | NFL DFS Player Props Steelers vs. Ravens

what's up everybody Matt Modi here with oddsgam here to give you some player props specifically for Sunday Night Football tonight so we got rivalry game between the Steelers and the Ravens and I have some player props for you guys to lock in I also have a DFS play for you guys as well so I have some regular player props that you can bet on the actual regulated Sports books I also have a prize picks DFS play for tonight as well so regardless of what you want hopefully this video will give you something for you guys to tail to lock in for tonight and I will start with the DFS play because the strategy for DFS is obviously different for regular sports betting right when you're sports betting you're looking for Value reflective to the rest of the market so you don't necessarily want to bet plays that like oh this one's incredibly likely to hit so I'm gonna bet it because you're going to have to pay for a little bit of juice for that for DFS that's exactly what you want to do you only want to bet on plays that are likely to hit basically which I know sounds dumb like obvious cool of course you're going to want to take plays that are going to hit but the key difference for DFS is that it has the same payout regardless of what plays you add so for today I have a two leg entry for um for Price fix no matter what two legs you add you will always double your money always we'll double your money that's different from how sports betting works right obviously the payouts are going to be different depending on how sportsbook's price odds so for Price picks that's exactly what I mean about you're trying to find plays that are likely to hit which again sounds obvious but there's a legitimate strategy to it and that's exactly why it's all about the payouts so starting with prize picks the number one play that I'm going to add in here is Deontay Johnson over four and a half player reception so this is a play that I really like for prize picks um if you compare where every other sports book prices it Pinnacle which is the sharpest sports book in the world has it all the way up at -178 which is insane and then if you look at the rest of the betting markets they're not as high on it as Pinnacle but we still see odds like minus 145 minus 137 at bet Rivers minus 136 at FanDuel and if you click this calculator here it tells you how likely the bet is to hit according to the oddsjam perfect line and the I stream perfect line is pulled from the sharpest Sports books in the world the sports books that consistently do the best job at pricing odds so you can kind of view this win percentage here which again is 56.15 as the true line of what a market should be priced at the true win percentage associated with this bet so because prize picks has the insane implied payouts we're not paying for any extra juice because of that this this player prop this um Deontay Johnson over four and a half perceptions is likely to occur we're not paying for any of that juice which of the same exact payout even though this one's more likely to hit than other plays to pay out the exact same so this is the first leg of the two one of course it's one game so you can only do two legs because you can't have the same on each team um Deontay Johnson over four and a half receptions the sharpest Sports books in the world give this win percentage over 56 percent pretty good play to add the next one is Kenny Pickett over 29 and a half passing attempts similar logic here Pinnacle which is the sharpest sports book in the world has it as pretty incredibly likely to occur at -158 uh DraftKings another pretty good sports book specifically for player props has it at -145 and then we see some other books minus 135 minus 157 all in all the win percentage for this one is just below 56 percent at 55.94 so thanks to using oxjam using the positive EV page we found two DFS plays before price picks that are have a roughly 56 chance of winning both of them over 50 percent and if they do both hit you double your money so the two prize picks plays Deontay Johnson over four and a half receptions Kenny Pickett over 29 and a half passing attempts as my two DFS plays now for the actual uh the actual bets on the regulated Sports books non-dfs plays let me go ahead and filter out prize picks because we don't need that in here anymore and I'll talk about the plays that I really like so number one Tyler Huntley over 0.5 interceptions so basically throws an interception this is at plus 114 odds at bet Rivers um and then for sports betting I mentioned the strategy is different you're looking for Value in the odds reflective of the rest of the betting markets so no longer are we trying to place bets that have the highest likelihood of occurring like we are with DFS we're looking for Value Place so the osteum perfect line as I mentioned before pulled from the sharpest Sports books in the world so in this case they're pricing this play at plus 106 and bet Rivers is giving it to us at six cents higher at plus 114. so there's going to be some sort of inherent value associated with this play because we know that this this play this bet should actually be priced a little bit lower than what we are getting at more likely it's more likely to occur than the reflected odds of plus 114. that's exactly how positive expected value betting works but what's really important with positive EV betting is to compare the rest of the sports books right bet Rivers has this at plus 114 you want to look at every other sports book to make sure that this that is an outlier compared to the rest of the betting market so you're looking for value compared to the rest of the betting markets in this case it is the closest book is Pinnacle at minus 104 every other book minus 105 at betmgm at betfred minus 113 at Caesars and then -110 at bet 365 in drackings and we're getting it for Plus 114. so really good play here Tyler Huntley over 0.5 interceptions so it throws an interception that's my first play the next one I'm actually not oh yeah no this is one of them uh same play or same player I should say Tyler Huntley under 0.5 passing touchdowns so doesn't throw a touchdown he hasn't been great since he came in for Lamar Jackson so this one makes sense uh you can get this at plus 145 odds at points bet bet 365 and typico uh Pinnacle prices this at plus 120 been online all the way down at plus 110 and then you look at and these are the two sharpest right Pinnacle and bend online you give the heaviest weight excuse me and then you still want to compare to the other sports book so we see some of them have a close like that River's seven cents lower at plus 138 giraffe Kings 10 cents lower at plus 135 but then we see seizures plus 116. bad Fred plus 130. so all in all this plus 145 is a pretty good Play Tyler Huntley under 0.5 passing touchdowns so this is my second actual bet my fourth player prop and then I have two more for you guys Deontay Johnson over four and a half receptions so we took it as a DFS play it also makes sense as a regular uh regular bet as well at -125 odds at betfred as I mentioned Pinnacle heavily favors this at -178 Caesars has it at -179 and then we see DraftKings at -145 another reason why I like this one is if you open the event page in a new tab so right now we just see where sportsbooks price the over under four and a half specifically if you open the event page in the new in a new tab you see where other sports books price his reception total at and as we can see two books uh points bet and this is BET online right here this one's bet online actually price it a full reception higher at five and a half and that's a huge deal from four and a half to five and a half is like a 20 difference it's a huge deal so the fact that we're getting him to go over whenever pretty much every Sportsbook heavily favors this going over more so than the best bread line at minus 125 and we see sportsbooks price it higher than this as well Underdog has it at five and then I mentioned points bet and bet online has it at five and a half it's a huge deal with numbers this low so it's Deontay Johnson one it's a really good play um and then my last one again another play that we took as a DFS play can he pick it over 29 and a half passing attempts um oddsgam perfect line prices is at about minus 127 Pinnacle has it at -158 DraftKings minus 145 Caesar's minus 157 bet 365 minus 135 another really good play here they already kind of talked about the value it's a good DFS play it's also good to take straight out at betfred and that's going to be it for this video so there is five total player props uh six total player props for you guys talk and if you include the two DFS ones so if you are tailing these comment let me know but that's it so appreciate everybody watching and have a good one