NFL Player Props to HAMMER for SNF Tonight

good morning Sports betters Matt Modi here with oddsjam here to give you some Sunday night football player props to lock in for Sunday Night Football seems Seems logical makes a lot of sense uh we obviously we have the Giants vs commanders somehow in NFC East game where both teams have winning records both teams have seven wins yet some somehow just feels like a very boring game mostly because the commanders are hot so I'm not going to take anything away from them mostly because the Giants are the opposite of hot they're like one four and one in their last six games after starting six and one the commanders are on the opposite streak they realize that their team is significantly better without Carson Wentz at quarterback so he got hurt Taylor heinecke put the commanders on a huge win streak and actually they benched Carson Wentz so the commanders are a legitimately good team at this point I don't think they can do much in the playoffs because I still think heinecke is too limited but we're not talking about playoffs we're talking about the game tonight so the first player prop that I am going to lock in here I've actually already locked it in as you can see the check mark next to it Isaiah Hodgins over 32 and a half player receiving yards so Isaiah Hodgins receiver for the Giants whose receiving core has just been totally decimated over the course of the season um the odds Jam no Vig line prices this at about plus 100 and a half almost exactly at plus 100 and a half and we are getting it at plus 104 and these novig odds important to understand that they are pulled from the sharpest Sports books in the world basically um oddsjam back tested thousands and thousands of betting opportunities with the logic being hey we're gonna some sports books are better at pricing odds than others so we're going to test the living crap out of a bunch of data right thousands of betting opportunities over a long period of time as a very large sample size of determining all right which what are these smart books which are the sharp ones once we determine that based on again a ton of data we're going to use those sharp Sports books to set the market moving forward saying all right if every single sharp Sportsbook has on average something priced this way in this case plus 100 and we are able to get it on another book in this case Caesar's at plus 104 that's going to represent a profitable betting opportunity that's positive expected value betting right there betting on an outcome that we know as the sports better has a better chance of occurring than the reflected odds of the sports book which is a mouthful all that means is that we know this should be priced at plus 100 we're getting it at plus 104. that means profit and then what you want to do um because you can look at this and immediately know that it's positive EV right like if it shows up on this page you're gonna know that it's positive EV so the additional research that I recommend doing and I don't mean look into the match-ups and who's going to guard him and his player prop history anything like that I simply mean if you click open the markets you can compare the bet that we are placing to the rest of the sports books right so again we're getting it at Plus 104. look at every other book and where they price it Pinnacle you want to look at as the sharpest Sportsbook in the world Pinnacle um is viewed as the sharpest so we give them the heaviest weight in terms of what how these are pulled in the weighted average they price the over at -116 they price the under at minus 114. they're heavily not heavily they're favoring it going over they think that the over is the more likely scenario by a little bit with -116 versus -1 14 still favoring the over and keep in mind we're getting it at plus 104. so if this bet does hit 50 of the time we are profiting we are profiting because of the odds at plus 104 and then look at the rest of the sports books it's even money each way minus 115 each way minus 113 each way minus 115 minus 115. so every other sports book is saying we don't know what side is more likely we don't know if he's going over or under we don't know it's more likely so we're just going to price it at exactly 50 50. again we are getting it at plus money so if it does hit 50 of the time we are profiting and then what you want to do for a player for a play like this where it's yards where the numbers can kind of vary between what sportsbooks actually price The Yards itself we see a lot of them have them have his yardage at 32 and a half some might have it different so if you view this event page in a new tab it pulls up where every Sportsbook is pricing his yardage prop at so in this case it looks like the other sports books that price it looks like there are three of them that actually price it at 30 and 29. so that is against what we are pricing it at but this plus 104 is still a good price to the sharpest Sportsbook in the world and to the majority of the other sports books right like one two three four five have it at 32 and a half either favoring it going over or 50 50 whereas three have it below this number granted points bet favors it going over at um at 30 and a half as those bet Rivers at 29 and a half so this isn't a complete and total mixed slam but it still is a good play so I put 50 bucks on it I put 50 that's half a unit for me the next play that we are not going to lock in because the odds changed on me which is unfortunate I was going to lock in this Darius Layton one so just gonna have this Isaiah Hodgins receiving yards for you guys and that's it for the Sunday Night Football game so if you're tailing this comment let me know and that's all I got so appreciate everybody watching and have a good one