Best NFL Player Props for SNF Tonight | NFL Player Props Lions vs. Packers

good morning everybody Matt Modi here with oddsjam we got a pretty cool uh Sunday Night Football game tonight that is a win and in for the Packers and could be a win and in for the Lions if the Seahawks lose today so pretty decent game we have going on so let's find some Best Bets to lock in for Sunday Night Football so I'm going to be using the oshjam positive EV page as well as the ozjam screen to find my favorite bets for tonight's game uh starting with the EV page there's a couple plays that I like some of them I've already logged in as you can tell by the check mark here so we can just get started right off the bat number one DeAndre Swift under uh 34 and a half rushing yards so the bet is at plus 102 odds at Caesars I know that this is the play because you see how this text is bolded how there is the blue rectangle around it this is a sign saying bet me bet me that's how you know this is the positive EV play now what does positive EV positive expected value mean it just means that basically there is some sort of edge that we have over the sports book with this individual bet and the edge that we have is all based on these no Vig odds this column that you see here so looking at the screenshot we see odds range from plus 102 to -1 15 minus 110 all the way up to minus 134. pretty wide range of odds here well just based on that Gap alone one of these Sports books has to be right one of them has to be wrong it simply doesn't make sense for odds to have like a 30 base 36 Cent difference from -134 to plus 102 and have them both be correct right that just doesn't make any logical sense one of them has to be incorrect and with sports betting some sports books are better than others at pricing odds consistently I don't mean like yesterday or for one specific opportunity I mean historically over the course of time so what oddstamp did was back test thousands and thousands of betting opportunities across all different markets player props NFL NBA NHL all these different markets to determine what historically Sport with sportsbooks excuse me are historically the sharpest and then they remove The Vig from those x amount of sports books Let's Pretend there were five they removed The Vig using a weighted average giving heavier weight towards the sharper ones and spits out these no big odds that you see here this is um why the auction positive EV tool is so powerful because if you think about it just from like a holistic View basically these x amount of sports books are the best at pricing mats historically over the course of time the best so we're going to use them to set the market moving forward and then spit out betting opportunities where you're getting more favorable odds and more favorable just means higher payout for the sports better than what these note that God's calculated that so for this one specifically this bet should be priced at minus one of four essentially which gives it a win percentage of over 51 All Odds have a win percentage associated with them if you click this calculator button right here it pulls up a bunch of information but specifically this win percentage is pulled from the novigots well plus 102 means that we don't have to even win 50 of the time and we can be profitable that's what the plus money means right so right off the bat that's a good play and then what you want to do is compare the other markets so again plus 102 odds means that you you don't even have to win 50 of the time to be profitable we'll look at where the other sports books price it minus 110 minus 115 minus 114 minus 134. Pinnacle is the sharpest Sportsbook in the world they heavily favor it going under which we're getting at plus 102. bet online another sharp Sportsbook has it at 50 50 which even if it is a 50 50 proposition we're still making money off that Pinnacle or excuse me DraftKings also favors it going over or under sorry DraftKings favors it going under granted not as much as Pinnacle does still favors it going under which we are getting at plus 102. that is a really good sign so for a player prop I put three quarters of a unit on this one on Caesar's I have to re-log into my account but I did go ahead and already lock this one in for 75 bucks as you can see right here DeAndre Swift under 34 and a half receiving yards 75 bucks next up the play that I also already locked in uh this one is on Circa Sportsbook so it's not as widely available so I'll just go through this one quickly first quarter total points over nine and a half minus one 13 odds at Circa I got it at -110 odds as you can see right here it's still positive EV at -113 so this is still a good bet to place um calculates the Nova Gods to be at about -119 we are getting -113 look across the board we see eyes range from -120 bookmaker and other very sharp Sportsbook to -127 on Pinnacle which is a good sign all the way up to -135 and minus 140. really good sign here and then my last play specifically for the EV plays is Christian Watson over 50 and a half receiving yards this is at -115 at bet MGM Nova Gods priced this at about -118 let's look at the markets now you can ignore prize picks because they are a daily fantasy sports company they have the same implied odds for every single play but we see -147 minus 130 minus 148 we're getting it at minus 115. so that's three plays from the positive EV page next up looking at the oddsjam screen there is a play there like um I like both quarterbacks essentially to go over their passing yardage prop so I actually already locked in Jared Goff at 240 and a half as you can see here um it's still a good price at 243 and a half so what I'm what I'm actually going to do here is I'm actually going to Parlay both of these quarterbacks to go over their passing yardish prop specifically on FanDuel because FanDuel has these remarkably mispriced compared to the rest of the sports books right so let me go ahead and lock this in and then I'll explain it so I'm just going to put a half unit on them both to go over I guess I need to log back into my FanDuel account let me go ahead and do this real quickly so let's chat about it so let's start with Aaron Rodgers right FanDuel prices it at 251 and a half and the way the oddsjam Screen Works you just pick a market and it pulls up where every single sports book is pricing that market their main line for that market so no alternate lines the main line now almost every other sports book except for win bet prices Aaron Rodgers above 251 and a half so if we're thinking about this logically literally every other sports book I guess points bet has it at 250 as well says he should be priced at 254 257 252 257 and Pinnacle the sharpest Sportsbook in the world has its six yards higher at 257. so that's a really good sign it's the same thing with Jared Goff we're getting it at 243 and a half Pinnacle or excuse me points bet has it at 240 and a half every other sports book has it higher all the way up from 248 to 251 to uh Pinnacle also having it at 251 8 yards higher than what FanDuel is giving us so both of these Sports books have their lines completely mispriced when you compare um when you compare to the rest of the sports books so this is a good parlay for plus 237 odds I'm just going to go ahead and put a half unit on this one 50 bucks to win one a little over basically 119. so that's going to be my parlay that I found using the odds name screen and round out my picks for um this Sunday Night Football game tonight so if you're tailing any of these comment and let me know but that's it so appreciate everybody watching and have a good one