Terrible new poll for Eby's NDP but great for BC Conservatives

details of a new Poll for the British Columbia provincial election have just been released and it should be getting the conservative party of BC quite excited and it should be very concerning to Premier David eie and his bcnp whenever we look at polls we always have to take into account who is the pollster and in this case although the NDP is still leading by three points with the NDP here at 42% the conservatives at 39 BC United at a dismal 10% and the greens at8 this poll was conducted by Le and Le has always historically had a little bit more of a left bias to its results so federally right now although most pollsters have the conservatives leading the Liberals by anywhere from 19 to 21 points when you look at the median polls coming out Le every once in a while will say that the Liberals are actually only down by 17 points or 14 points when all the other pollsters are still saying 20 points they tend to over sample downtown cores and they don't get enough people who work more traditionally conservative jobs a lot of more traditionally conservative jobs are things that don't really allow you to take a poll in the middle of the day so you get a lot more downtown office workers people who work in HR people work who work for the government answering polls and Le's methodology tends to capture that a lot where other pollsters try different tactics in order to get at those who are less likely to pick up the phone even though they're very likely to still still show up and vote on Election Day there is always a response biased to polls polls are never perfect and I can tell you it's not that LE is trying to be biased it's just the way that they do polling tends to have like tends to have these results every pollster has a little bit of a bias this way or that way but this poll is still excellent for the conservatives because of Le saying they're only down three they're probably tied or maybe they're leading by one or two when it comes to turnout because Le had released some numbers ahead of the poll coming out probably about five or six days ago asking people what are your emotions going into this provincial election and 31% of people said apathy crushing apathy and when you take into account the fact that the conservatives really weren't a party in the last election in 2020 they only got 2% I don't think that people choosing the conservatives this election are going to be disproportionately those saying that they're apathetic in fact even if you assume all BCU voters are apathetic and even if all green party voters are also apathetic I guarantee a good third to maybe even half of the ndp's support base is apathetic so I think the conservatives actually are going to have a really good turnout effort in this election there's just going to be a lot more people going out for a change vote rather than for a defensive vote on behalf of the NDP but I want to get into the more detailed statistics here to kind of prove my case of why this poll is so good for the conservatives but before I get into that I'm going to say if you live in British Colombia the BC NDP has a massive money advantage over the conservatives not because they're better at fundraising but because of stupid provincial fundraising rules that give 33% of the party spending in the last election back to them in a big check from taxpayers and then they also get a150 I think a little bit more than that it might be like a$1 56 per vote that they got every single year so if the NDP had like a million votes well they get 1 .5 million given to them from the taxpayer every single year and you only got that 33% money back if you happen to have gotten I believe more than 10% in a riding you got 33% of the money you spent in that riding back well the BC conservatives only had 2% which means that they basically got no money back and the money they get per vote is dismally low I think that nobody should be getting money directly from taxpayers but the bcnp has set it up this way while also raging against corporate donors even though they're forcing taxpayers to become their own corporate donors so if you live in BC donate $100 to the abbottsford South Eda in the description below we are collecting in money and distributing it out to the ridings that need it so that we can win this election everyone in BC should give a $100 you get a 75% tax credit so only cost you 25 bucks to donate 100 that's my pitch please go click on that if you haven't given anything yet because if you don't donate we can't can't win anyways moving on to the polling and so I want to start off with the I guess the approval ratings of the leaders because I think this is going to be very much a referendum style election it's either whether or not you like David eie and the bcnd dp's performance or you don't that's why BCU and the greens have become very irrelevant greens might grab one or two seats but mostly they're going to be a non-factor BCU is definitely a non-factor if anything it's just holding Federal liberal votes back from the bcnp but right now David eie has an approval rating of 44% he is being able to just benefit from the fact that he's the premier not a lot of people know that much about him so they're willing to think nice things but he's dropped below 50% which John Horan could always easily clench back in the day John Horan I believe at one point had like a 65 70% approval rating now we have David eie with only a 44% approval rating and John rustad is at 35% which is not bad considering the fact that a lot of leftwing media has been attacking him left and right and still not that many people know who he is and as the poll mentions he has gone from just 27% approval back in March up to 35% so that is a great Improvement a 8% jump and this is the approval ratings over time so back in January of 2023 David eie is sitting at a 49% approval rating with which is a little bit due to the fact that he just inherited becoming Premier he never actually ran in a legitimate race the bcnp bullied every single other person who tried to run in the BC NDP leadership race out of it because they knew David eie is a very weak politician he's a weak he's not a very charismatic person so he can't stand up to a like a well organized opponent so they made sure that he just got acclaimed as the leader in the Premier so he's our accidental protester premier he started at 49% and slumped down to 44 he didn't have that much star power to begin with but now that the Gap is only 9% between him and John rustad he should be really worried about what people think about him in the next couple of months because if any bad news comes out and there's tons of it the mission ER just closed for the third time in two and a half weeks a lot of people are going to start turning their attention and fire onto David eie as the culprit behind all the issues but now I want to jump over to some more specific uh party polling and then Regional polling so this is the current polling about who's voting for what party in terms of the federal voting intentions right now 88% of federal NDP voters are voting for The bcnp which makes sense 133% of federal conservatives which seems a little bit odd but I think it's mostly just from the fact a lot of people don't realize the BC conservatives are a real force a lot of people still think this provincial election is between the NDP and the BC liberals who changed their names to BC United and so I think that 30 133% is still going to bleed over to the conservatives eventally then 23% of federal Liberals are voting NDP and 10% of greens but let's jump down to the conservatives 6% of federal ndpers are voting conservative I don't think that's a mistake that's not just people being confused if you're picking conservative on these polls it's probably because you actually want to vote for them and David eie is too radical for even a lot of Jag me supporters especially in the South Asian Community the conservatives are grabbing up 77% of federal conservative voters 9% of federal uh liberals and 1% of greens and so this is where this poll showing the conservatives only down 3% has a lot of room to still grow because the NDP with this 42% rating 133% of that is federal conservatives or at least a sizable amount or 13% of current federal conservatives are saying they're voting BC andp I don't think that's actually going to hold up as people get more serious about who they are going to choose as the race grinds on because why would you want PV to get rid of the federal carbon tax but be okay with David eie keeping the provincial carbon tax which you don't even get a basic rebate for it's a tax that just goes into General revenues and they just blow it on nothing but like safe Supply drugs and woke nonsense so I think that that 133% isn't going to hold up so you'll probably see the ndp's voter basee shrink unless they gain voters from somewhere else probably around 40 to 39% and the conservatives are probably going to at least absorb two-thirds of that maybe some go to BCU because I don't know they just don't like John rusted he's a perfectly fine guy I really know why anyone would dislike John rustad and compared to David Eevee David Eevee comes off like a juvenile Student Union president somebody who seems more comfortable at a Columbia University occupation than at a business meeting and John seems like a real adult which is probably the best way of marketing it John rustad looks like he is David E's Dad here to take the premier's office back from him because he's been a naughty boy and but I'm gonna move on from there but so right now the bcnp is having to rely on a very strange base that is probably more reflective of a lot of people just clicking buttons on the phone and saying yeah I'm voting bcnd DP this time it's not because they like the NDP it's just because they're still in the mindset of it's Wilkinson versus Horgan and John Horgan was a very blue collar NDP leader a blue nper you could say and so he was going to suck up a lot of people who work in trades people who are small business owners whatnot simply because they didn't like the more corporate left style of the BC liberals because the BC liberals used to be a big tent party with a lot of center right people in it and under Christy Clark and then Wilkinson and now Falcon it's just become a full-on normal Center left Federal liberal style party and so a lot of people picked you know the orange people back in the day the NDP because at least they seem to respect workingclass people it was still a left party like the Liberals but at least they seem to care about workingclass people David Eevee is very much not that person he is a pure downtown Victoria Vancouver activist and I think that's going to get him hurt with a lot of these blue voters they still have a very very slight hold on those people are probably going to leave once they realize the Dynamics of the race are not what they were back in 2020 anyways now here is age demographics the bcnp is also having to rely on a lot more older voters who although are very likely to vote have shrunk in their percentage of the voter base these people are also those who probably are not on social media as much generally people who are following political news on places like X and Facebook are going to be in that 40 to probably 55 demographic maybe 30 to 55 it's kind of that specific demographic who really follows the news a lot of people who are 65 and over or 55 and over are going to be still watching a lot of mainstream news and so when the race heats up I think that's going to like Snap people out of normal voting intentions because the mainstream media kind of holds up the BC United as if it's a legitimate Force at this point because they are simply the opposition in the current legislature they have the second most seats so the media covers every press conference they do they make Falcon seem like a bigger figure than he really is and when the race heats up and people start seeing polls come up on screen all the time they're gonna be like oh well I don't like eie so I guess I'm G to go vote conservative because I didn't realize that the conservatives were a real option this time and not just a party that was like keeping the name alive which was what was going on before a year and a half ago some people just kept the BC conservative name registered there was a couple edas they ran a few candidates but it wasn't a real party before a year and a half ago when John rustad became the leader so uh yes demographics the conservatives are mostly doing well with middle class middle-age voters and young voters and I believe like this poll is showing they have been improving quite a bit when it comes to older voters as well I think that is a g going to be a trend that's going to in continue and that's the problem for the NDP right now all of they are not doing that well compared to the conservatives with younger and middle-aged voters and I think Trend in terms of shifting towards the conservatives is also going to continue ndp's mostly been in a holding pattern but I think it's because they haven't gotten enough attention yet that's kind of the funny thing eie doesn't have good name recognition which in a certain sense has been good for him because the more people know about the guy the more they just don't really like him it's not that they hate him he just doesn't seem like a competent manager of a province he comes off very much like again a student union president a president of a university not somebody that you want in charge of resource development in British Columbia or especially drug policy considering that he is just far too left-wing in order to see the issue with fresh eyes Clear Eyes so now here is the regional polling that I think is also showing the conservatives poised to win because the stronghold area for the NDP is Vancouver Island Vancouver Island does not nearly have as many seats as the rest of BC where the conservatives have their hold and then they both kind of meet in the middle for a tough fight in Metro Vancouver so this is already a big Advantage for the conservatives the place that they do the best in is almost completely locked out for the bcnd DP the bcnp would have to gain like five points in rural BC in order to beat the the conservatives or or to make it competitive and rip away a lot of conservative seats the BC conservatives only have to do a little bit better on Vancouver Island and they can win a lot of seats in North Vancouver if not outside of Victoria they're very competitive uh it's just that the NDP does so well in Victoria it makes their Vancouver Island numbers look much better than they really are when they should almost pull it as Victoria and then the rest of Vancouver Island because the conservatives could get anywhere from two to four maybe even five seats that would be a massive coup for the conservatives if they could get anywhere from three to five because they're only expecting at the moment one to two but I think that the polling hasn't quite caught up with them yet and and but the ntp is just nowhere close to being at where the conservatives are and the rest of of BC they're 10 points down where the conservatives are yes down further on Vancouver Island than the BC ndpr and the rest of Van uh rest of BC but the conservatives can still win seats where the BC and DP have very hard time winning seats in the rest of Vancouver sorry this is becoming a bit of a tongue twister with me having to continually rename the same uh regions but now I want to talk about Metro Vancouver because this is also supposedly a stronghold for the bcnd DP when we think of Vancouver we think of NDP in terms of political popularity but when you look at Metro Vancouver they are only leading the conservatives by six points the conservatives do not have to beat the mdp in Metro Vancouver in order to win the election they just have to do pretty well in Metro Vancouver because a lot more of the seats are in the rest of BC then Vancouver Island like I was saying so if the BC conservatives and again this is taking into account the fact that LE is probably under ping some conservative voters the BC conservatives only had to be around 41 40% on in Metro Vancouver in order to win enough seats to offset the advantages the NDP have anywhere else and then they'd probably be able to win a 47 48 50 seat majority very realistic at this point even this poll based on if you kind of did a simulation of the election multiple times sometimes the conservatives would win even 338 right now is giving the conservatives a 20% chance to win and again I would argue the polling has not quite caught up to how popular the BC conservatives are on the ground these days I do a lot of door knocking tons of mdp Voters I'm not even having to convince them they're like yeah I voted Horan I used to always vote NDP but I just don't like EB so I'm probably good at voting rad unprompted me barely even saying anything about why I'm at the door I'm just saying it's about the BC Provincial election I'm with the conservatives they're like yeah I'm probably vote conservative because you know e is just not like Horgan I just don't know what's up with this government they seem clueless great for us just great for us that that's just the knee-jerk reaction right now with what's going on but uh yeah I'm there's not really much else for me to say there basically I right now in Metro van this just the NDP is just not nearly strong enough in order to feel comfortable it's only a couple Point swing in Metro van that would that would put the conservatives in front winning rich eing out some seats in bernabe I think that the conservatives that they can win half of Siri we're in business we're doing really well if we can even win half of Siri and most of the polls are not showing that we're winning anything in sui at the moment but again I don't think they've caught up yet we have Vancouver Lara that's a very good seat we could even win David eie seat Vancouver Point gray is historically a more conservative leaning seat in terms of it voted BC liberals which were the more conservative option at the time right now it only shows B uh David E winning his seat 75% probability that's terrible if anything we should just make sure we door knock the entire riding right away and just put him on his heels and force him to rip more resources into his own riding and give up some other uh ridings around the Vancouver area Vancouver is just there's very Suburban areas in Vancouver who are just tired of the drugs and the crime and the taxes who I think that even if they tell a poster they're going to vote NDP the chances that they show up are very slim compared to a conservative so I think conservative turnout could be like 80% of people saying they're voting conservative 80 85% of them might show up where even if the LI the NDP are a little bit above if only 65 75% of them are going to show up they lose that is really what this election is coming down to it's a referendum it's a yes or no vote it's either yes keep David eie or get rid of him and I think on that question which is the question that is going to be posed to voters the BC conservatives will win that uh is there anything else for me to check here well here's you can just see what the current polling is looking like here that a lot has changed the bcnd DP has mostly been in a holding pattern because most of the movement has been on the conservative United side of the board but now that it is becoming this two-horse race I think a lot more NDP voters who are just parking their vote with them because they're probably going to win anyways now they get to reconsider and I think it's the reconsideration where the NDB is going to have a hard time arguing why why you should be sticking with them you can't really tell voters stick with us and the current situation is just going to continue it it's a change election like that's all I can kind of say not to repeat myself too much here but it's genuinely just a change election it's not an election where people are going to be like more safe Supply oh more more rent control more more this or that you know we need more uh taxes it's it's just not an election where anyone's going to run out the door excited to keep David eie in office if David eie was opposing a Christy Clark government let's say Christy Clark was somehow still the premier somehow or Wilkinson had pulled off an upset in 2020 eie with these stupid policies he's running on maybe could win just because his ideas seem very revolutionary and Visionary they're stupid ideas but they're Big Ideas the problem is you can't run on having big Ideas when people have seen what the big Ideas have like will do to the province they've done horrible things so you can't run on having a vision when the vision has been tried and it's horrible but yeah anyways that should be it for me today guys I don't want to Ramble On too much about these polls but it's very looking very good for the conservatives I bet once a new Main Street polls out the conservatives are going to be up in those ones uh name recognition brand recognition is the main goal for the conservatives this at this point we have a money disadvantage but if we hit every door if we start using our money in smart ways not that we're not already ready we are but if we start kind of placing money in areas where we just needed that a little bit you know 3 4% more people to recognize that we're the sort of the main party to take on the NDP then I think we can win this thing it's effectively in my my mind a mere matter of marching as long as we had the money so again plug the BC conservatives if you live in BC donate in the description below there's a link to abbottsford South just donate to abbottsford South I'm helping manage abits for S and we're going to package up money and send it to the ridings that need it the writings where it's actually going to be a winnable race we don't need that much in our area but it just allows us to Target stuff where it needs to go since we're kind of managing the whole phaser Valley from abbottsford South being our headquarters so that should be it for me today guys if you don't live in BC you can always donate to my personal legal fund the give send go Link in the description below always you know make sure to like share subscribe all that stuff and give me any other BC related uh events or news that you guys want me to cover in the description below or the comment section I always try and read through it even if I don't reply to everyone sometimes when I have 500 uh comments I can't get to everyone but I usually skim through a lot of the comments to see what the general mood is but I'll see you guys later