Poll show BC Conservatives on track to beat Eby's NDP

we have some very exciting polling news coming out of British Columbia today showing that yes indeed John rustads BC conservative party is on track to beat Premier David E's bcnp remember that at the start of this year the bcdp were able to lead their closest opponent from anywhere from 18% to 28% yes they were able to lead at the beginning of this year up to 28% above their closest competitor but now since BC United formerly the BC liberals have completely collapsed under the lack of leadership of Kevin Falcon John rested and the conservatives have emerged as the main opposition to David eie and let's be clear even though David eie used to technically be the second and I think at one point the most popular premere in the country he actually isn't that popular he had his honeymoon phase in 2022 and 2023 but as people started to notice that he's far more radical than John orgon and he's completely out of touch with what middle class BC residents want he his actual favorability like numbers have fallen faster than any other Premier in the Country David eie is deeply out of touch with what a middleclass BC voter wants he's radical on drug issues he has he's a terrible record on affordability his soji agenda is deeply unpopular with BC parents across the board on policy people don't like the NDP they're currently only ahead in most polls because of a lot of soft support there are people who still haven't really clued into what this next provincial election is all about they still think it's between the bcnp and the BC liberals before the name change they don't realize that the BC conservatives are a real viable vehicle in this election just take a look at Federal polling in British Colombia the federal conservatives under PV who are very close in ideology to the BC conservatives are near 50% % in British Columbia if anything the BC conservatives are actually probably a little bit more conservative than the federal conservative party so these two parties should probably be pulling fairly close the only reason that the BC conservatives are not pulling up to where the federals are yet is just because name recognition hasn't caught up yet people don't quite know who John rustad is but that can all be healed in time with good spending and just from people like paying attention as the election gets closer but this liaison strategy poll that just came out is really interesting and I want to talk about the top line numbers first and then get into the Regionals they're utterly abysmal but before I get into that I do want to say if you guys live in British Columbia and you support the BC conservative party as you should they're an actual good party and they're not crazy like David eie please consider donating to the be conservatives they do not pay me to promote them they do not pay me to get them donations I live in Alberta but I'm just basically telling you guys if you want a changeing government you have to donate to them if you donate $100 you get 75% of it back in a tax credit the BC conservative donation but uh link is in the description of video below but without further Ado here is the liaison strategy Topline numbers the bcnp are at 40% the conservatives are at 38 the greens are at 10 and BC United is at 9% which is really funny because about two months ago there was a scuffle between the BC conservatives and the United on who was going to be the main opposition to David eie even back then the United party was like 10% behind the conservatives but now I think we can say that the BC conservatives have successfully vanquished the United and now they're moving on to smash the NDP and more pessimistic viewers might be thinking well the NDP is still ahead how could the NDP possibly be ahead again it's a lot of soft support it's a lot of Voters who are merely whenever a pollster calls them up just telling them that they're voting for the party that they voted for last time most people tend to just default to what they've done previously but as the election date looms closer when people start taking the decisions of the election more seriously they are probably going to start migrating towards the conservatives the fact that the conservatives are in a statistical tie right now with the NDP there's a three-point margin of error so it is statistical tie this demonstrates that the BC conservatives can easily win this election if even well before the RIT is dropped they are tied with the NDP who's to say they can't get up to where the federal conservatives are 45% 47% it's very doable as you see the trend line here in all of the polling that's been done in British Columbia it has just been upward momentum across the board even in polling from polling firms that are a little bit more pessimistic about the performance of the BC conservatives even they have had a steady rise in the BC conservatives polling I think one of the pollsters showed that the BC conservatives were down like 10 points on the MVP but even that was an improvement over two and a half months ago when they showed the BC NDP leading by 14 points or 15 points every pollster showing that the BC conservatives are doing well and the Regionals of this poll should be what are keeping people like David eie up at night because it is not good for the NDP and it shows that they have no room to lose voters so let's start off with the region actually that the bcnp does the best I think you know let's start off with the worst news for the BC conservatives So currently on Vancouver Island the BC NDP are leading the conservatives 43% 23% in fact the greens are actually in second place on Vancouver Island at 24% which is actually good for the PC conservatives because the greens have the capacity of holding on to their two seats and denying those seats to the NDP right now the polling would suggest that the greens will only hold on to one seat but with proper campaigning and concentration of resources they can probably W off the NDP in both of those seats but in Metro Vancouver so the BC conservatives even went in third place sry to finish up on Vancouver Island the BC conservatives even in Vancouver Island with a third place showing of 23% can still win a couple like two to three seats on Vancouver Island in the north of the of the island in more rural areas the BC conservatives have a far stronger appeal than the nvp the nvp are pretty much just at 43% because they do really well around Victoria outside of Victoria it becomes a far more even neck and neck race between the NDP and the conservatives depending on the riding okay well now let's move on to Metro Vancouver this is the very scary one for the NDP so yes the NDP are leading uh in Metro Vancouver but they're only leading 42% to 39% again when you remember that this poll has a margin eror of 3% that is within the that is within the margin eror they are effectively tied in Metro Vancouver an area that the NDP needs to absolutely clean up in and then when we jump down to how the NDP are doing outside of Vancouver they're absolutely getting smashed by the conservatives 48% to 33% so this is outside of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island the BC conservatives are ahead 48% to 33% which means that the that the conservatives could effectively win every single out like every single riding outside of the Vancouver and and Vancouver Island area and they can still win ride ridings in those other two areas that's a very bad position for the uh BC NDP to be in the BC conservatives where they're strongest are a place where the BC NDP can even compete but the areas where the NDP are strong the BC conservatives can compete and if they just inch up a little bit more on Vancouver Island especially in Metro Vancouver in the Sur area they can clean up this entire election now I want to jump over to a map now that I I think just like you know shows you the geography the layout of how this election is going I think everyone should actually go and uh follow Shar atist on uh on X I think he does a really good job of generating these uh these seat projections and Maps so go follow real Alber Albert Albanian Pat I don't know everyone alwayss that's weird handles on X sorry for muddling that a lot but his current polling uh polling projections seat projections just based on this liaison strategy poll shows the MVP would win 51 seats over the conservatives 41 uh and the greens would get one seat but that is a very close election considering that if the BC conservatives just inch up three or four more points in the polls especially if they steal those supporters from the bcnp they can easily flip this uh result so as we see the NDP still has a little bit of support in these rural areas I really doubt this is going to end up holding the BC conservatives are going to be able to keep pushing out a lot of rural voters that the BC and DP have just entirely left behind so I don't think these rural seats are going to be holding for the BC NDP but let's look in and I'll try and zoom in as much as I can here if you can see up in this top right corner this Su area area is going to be a a a massive vote bank for conservatives I've so I've shown this in previous videos about the uh about demographic polling about different uh ethnic groups and the BC conservatives are actually very popular right now with Indian Canadian sorry I do a bit of a jump cut there I had a bit of a fuzzy screen because my internet was clicking out it's just this location I'm in does not want to stay stable but as I was saying the BC conservative is actually doing very well with South Asian Canadians and this Sur area is very heavily South Asian right now it shows that the conservatives are only picking up one seat in the Siri BC area but again if the polling tightens up in the Metro Vancouver area by one or two percent I could easily see Siri flipping even now I think Siri could flip because this polling is just based on generic uh projections based on what happened in the last election with the current polling taken into account but when you actually look at South Asian polling 51% of South Asian voters say they're going to vote for the BC conservative party I think only 11% are going to be voting for The NDP and some are also going to be voting for United but I don't think a lot of United supporters in South asan Community are going to hold when people realize if you want to protect your small business there's tons of small business owners in the South Asian Community you got to vote BC conservative so all of this is yes still showing an edge for the NDP but the NDP shouldn't just have an edge they should be smashing this election they used to be up 18 points as I've been saying so if this thing tightens up even three or 4% which will inevitably happen as more people know that the BC conservatives are the real opposition to the NDP as more people get to know John rustad and frankly as more people see David eie perform David eie is a terrible Premier he is a student union protester who somehow became the premier of The Province he's unelected he just got acclaimed as the premier it's pathetic he in a certain sense comes off very young and I know I'm saying this as somebody who looks 12 years old although I'm 25 um David eie just comes off like a 18-year-old Punk kid compared to John rusted who very much is an adult John rusted seems like somebody that you can trust to manage serious portfolios to be able to run a province David eie looks like frankly what his previous job was writing anti- police books and trying to show you how you can sue the police for petty technicalities in order to take money away from them he is anti-cop he is pro drug his affordability record is horrible his soji record in education is horrible David Eevee is a terrible Premier and so the fact that this election is this close right now proves that David eie can't win it's it's like I've seen this before it's like whenever there's an incumbent president in the United States and somehow they don't have a strong advantage over an unknown Challenger I'm trying to find a a good example of this but there's been some there's been sometimes in it's like I guess Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan Jimmy Carter had very weak polling he was still ahead of Ronald Reagan for much of the race early on but the fact that you're only a little bit ahead of your opponent who hasn't even been nominated yet is a big issue the BC conservatives only have four seats and if they're this close with as a little bandwidth as they have as little spending as they have imagine what's going to happen when the BC conservatives actually have a lot of money the BC andp are still out fundraising them but I think in the next two to three months the BC conserves are going to pack away cash and be able to swamp the bcnp in the fall the bcnp are relying on voters who they disrespect the ndp's base that John Horan could keep voting for The bcnd DP was a lot of bluecollar workers David eie doesn't look like he even likes to be around construction workers like Factory workers you know city employees he looks like someone who likes to be at cocktail parties that's where John rustad has a big Advantage he actually seems like he cares about bluecollar workers because he really does and David eie seems like he cares about HR employees and people who are activists that's going to be the main thing that's going to hurt the NDP is they are an activist party and people want a serious governing Force especially knowing that P PV is probably going to be the next prime minister of Canada why would you want David eie on one hand who wants to keep the provincial carbon tax alongside a federal conservative uh prime minister who's going to get rid of the federal carbon tax which would leave BC being one of the only two places in in Canada next to Quebec still paying a carbon tax that's also a big issue with I know this video is going on a bit but it's astonishing David eie is having to rely on crossover voters that do not exist a crossover voter it's like split ticketing in the United States I'm in the United States right now so I'm thinking of presidential elections split ticketing is like if I was Voting a republican for president I was Voting my Democratic senator and my local Congressional uh Congress person I was Voting Republican again I'm not voting downline Republican but the vast majority of Voters in any jurisdiction tend to vote downline the same way if you like like a conservative provincially you like a conservative federally you like a conservative municipally you know vice versa between all of them you're not going to vote for the big spending socialist pro- drug Pro carbon tax NDP MLA at the same time that loc that federally you're going to be voting for a conservative who wants to scrap the carbon tax and when 50% of the province right now around that is planning on voting Federal conservative David E is in a very awkward position where he's going to have to rely on some federal conservative voters to vote for him and I don't think that's actually going to happen yes there's 50% of people who are aren't voting Federal conservative but there are many liberal Federal liberals who vote United who vote green there's a many federal mdps vote provincially green and so they actually he can't dominate that entire other non-conservative half David eie needs crossover voters crossover voters who are entirely opposed to his agenda does not matter how much the man pretends to moderate he cannot moderate enough because as much as he thinks that he can put out some affordable housing program or he can make noises about trying to reduce middle class taxes or do something to try and reduce the intensity of the decriminalization of drugs program he's not reversing any of these issues that's the problem he is too much of a True Believer in socialist policy in radical postmodern Marxist policy that he can't pull out of this Tail Spin he would rather lose an election as a purist left Winger than actually win it because at heart he is a social activist who lucked into becoming the premier of Canada's I think third biggest province yes third I know Canadian geography well well but anyways that should be it for me today guys again if you live in British Columbia you can't expect other people to donate to the BC conservative so they can beat the NDP if you don't donate donation link is in the description below it just says BC conservative donate click on that if you live in BC donate $100 to them you get 75% of it back on your taxes you get to pay the provincial government less taxes while also funding the BC conservatives in crushing David eie and then if you don't live in British Columbia but you still like hearing me talk about provincial politics even if it's not a province you live in you can donate to my legal fund the giv and go Link in the description below it really helps me and the national Telegraph out a lot we have a billionaire Chinese developer suing us for nothing he's doing us for defamation and in two and a half years of this case going on still hasn't been able to prove or even show any evidence that would even suggest that we defamed him it's just him throwing paperwork at us to try and punish people for having even referenced something bad about him we never even reported anything new about him we just referenced an old report about him because he happened to be relevant to something else that we were investigating in an article but anyways that should be it for me today guys so donate to the BC conser here NBC donate to my legal fund if you can if you want to sign up on my website for updates on local political happenings you can go to w clay pool.com in the description below and sign up to that contact list have a great one everyone