New polls show BC Conservatives beating David Eby's NDP!

hey everyone I am not in Canada to do the latest polling update for the British Columbia provincial election so I am doing this video sitting on a stump in a park in Kyoto Japan but let's just jump right into what has happened recently and that is the BC conservatives have pulled ahead of the BC NDP in not just one poll not just the Main Street poll but in two polls now the BC conservatives are ahead three points in the latest Main Street research poll and they're ahead by one point in the latest polara poll I even predicted this was going to happen on X where I said that as soon as we saw Main Street research saying that the conservatives are leading by three points that you're going to see a lot more of the pollsters start to come out and say that yeah actually the conservatives are leading by one leading by two a lot of the companies are going to rework their methodologies to be able to find the hidden conservative voter because the thing in the the that's happening in this upcoming BC election is I think that the voter turnout is going to look very different than it did back in 2020 I don't just mean in terms of the percentage of people who are going to be coming out I think it might be the same if not maybe a little bit lower simply because there's a lot of apathetic voters luckily for the conservatives those apathetic voters are mostly picking bcnd DP and United in the polls but the turnout is going to be different cuz I think the people who are going to turnout are going to be very different and I think there are going to be a lot of what we call low propensity voters actually showing up people who in previous elections hadn't shown up to vote cuz you know it's BC liberals versus the NDP who really cares it's the you know two parties I don't really like and now a lot of Voters suddenly have an option that they do like that they can support in the BC conservatives so I think what we're going to have happen is we're going to have people who hadn't voted in two election Cycles turning out and a lot of the people are currently being pulled who even they are leaning conservative they're less likely to show up so this is a big deal for the conservatives they're not just ahead by three points in the uh the Main Street research poll it was 39 conservative 236 NDP and the polar pole was 41 conservative 240 NDP that's already good enough for the conservatives to secure a majority if we just throw those numbers into a model but I think what is going to happen is that the conservatives are going to be able overperform their polling by two to three points simply because their people are going to show up and the NDP are not as well as a lot of people who you just are not going to be able to pull are going to show up that's been a problem with a lot of polling in the past decade or two is that online polls especially tend to get young Professionals in urban core areas answering your polls you don't get the farmers you don't get plumbers people people who work in trades small business owners they're not the people who take online polls in the middle of the day or live call polls where you're going to have to take 15 minutes to answer all their questions you know you're a plumber you're not going to do that you're running a restaurant you're not going to pick up the phone and do this in the middle of the day but if you work for the government in Victoria if you work in uh you know downtown Vancouver in some office job especially for the government you got a ton of time on your hands to do stuff like this this is actually the problem we've been having on Vancouver Island itself some polls show the NDP absolutely smashing it in Vancouver Island I don't believe that it's not because the polls are lying it's because they're not being careful in how they're pulling it so the poll is telling you exactly like it's telling you technically correct information but they're not being specific enough about what it's telling you it's mostly just saying that Victoria is very NDP when you actually expand the pulls out and you pull Victoria and the island you balance those samples a little bit better that they don't just get mixed together and it looks like the NDP are doing really well cuz your sample was 2/3 Victoria the conservatives are actually ahead in in on Vancouver Island that's what the Main Street research poll shows and that's what the polaro poll shows the polaro pole I believe they're like basically tied or up or down just one or two points from the NDP which would be a conservative victory in terms of being able to mine out three four maybe even five seats on the island eases off pressure to not have to win all of Sur to not have to win all of Richmond even though I do believe the conservatives are going to have a really big turnout in sui Siri all the seats there are currently considered NDP if you actually look at the 338 polling website it's all NDP they only give like 2% 3% chance for the conservatives to win those seats those seats though when you actually look at the conservative campaigns out there they're massive very well organized I know many of the candidates Zan for the conservatives uh in his writing I forget which siries riding it and he's already door knocked the entire riding he's already door knocking it again so they've gotten to the doors well before their BC NDP or their United opponents and so that's also going to be a big factor in this election is who's working harder the BC conservatives do not have a lot of money you guys still should donate I'm going to link in the description below the Abbotsford South Eda if you donate there especially if you're in the Fraser Valley what we're going to do is Bruce Ban's riding we're going to collect up enough money so that we can win that race I'm currently on vacation from his being his campaign manager but we're going to collect up enough money to be able to win that race and then we're going to be packaging up other bits of money and then sending out to writings that do need it but the Siri ridings it's demonstrating that you don't need that much cash to be able to win election you just basically got to get to the doors first money in politics actually doesn't matter all that much you shouldn't underestimate it you know money does pay for more volunteers it pays for more phone calls it pays for more advertisements that's all great but if people don't want to vote for you they're not going to vote for you and that has been the life lesson that Kevin Falcon has been Lo like learning as the BC United leader it doesn't matter if you dump millions of dollars on an ad campaign showing Kevin Falcon walking around the peer trying to look confident professional nobody likes United nobody liked the BC liberals in the last decade of their life and so that people aren't voting for them it's just simple as that it doesn't matter what they do they're not going to make a comeback yeah some PS are showing them at 12 that's better than 9 but it's the same polls that have been showing them at 9 keep showing them at 9 the same polls that showed them at 12 keep showing them at 12 you have a lot of United folks on social media who what they do is they take a they take one poll where they weren't doing so well from a different polling firm and then they compare it to another polling firm's poll that shows them up even though if you just follow that singular polling firm's history it has basically just been showing them going down and then flatlining there's no movement BC unit even embarrassingly tried to post a fake poll where they basically pulled nobody they only pulled like people over the age of 65 and even that poll only put them at 15% and they pretended like this was a big cou and in the rankings of who was in uh in second place they actually put themselves in second place even though their own poll still revealed that they're like N9 10 points behind the BC conservatives it's it's been silly it's been extremely silly but uh I think the election is really coming down to a referendum do you like David eie and the bcnd dp's performance do or do you want like a rational adult in office in the form of John rustad it's not an election where anything but the NDP and the conservatives matter I'm not even afraid of vote splitting frankly United's helping the BC conservatives because all the nervous people who voted Horan or their Federal liberals who voted liberal provincially in the last election who aren't willing to vote conservative at least they can vote United because I feel like if United just went away a bunch of people would migrate back over to the NDP because of the two-horse race mentality and you know I hate conservatives I'm going to go vote for my further destruction in the bcnd DP but anyways I think that at this point I do the NDP have a path back into office maybe I'm never going to say that oh it's definitely a lock for the conservatives I think that if I was putting in a ballpark terms I think 70% chance that the conservatives win 30% chance that the NDP win or it's a tie uh and the greens basically are the deciding vote uh but it's just that with in all elections you need a narrative to run on and the bcnb don't have a narrative their narrative is keep our failing terrible government in office because the alternative could be like not even worse but like extreme or radical it's like the problem is the government currently in office is so extreme you can't scare people with a good time saying that conservatives are going to get rid of your drug programs sog1 123 they're going to cut taxes all this stuff that sounds fantastic to people in British Columbia right now so like and the conservatives got to run on a change narrative change narratives are very powerful what are you thinking as a BC NDP voter you're going to patriotically go show up and keep the NDP around for another four years like for what for what who cares they're not doing anything good yeah I'm going to work hard I'm going to be driving home after A Hard Day's Work and decide to pull over the car so I can pull a lever for David eie that's not a voter that exists the blue collar vote that John Horan is able to tracked in 2020 is all gone for the NDP at this point so David E is having to reconstruct a party from the Heap that he's like he's turned it into and all he's done is just doubled down on Progressive voters and Progressive voters are maybe 15% 20% of the electorate in BC and the IND and sorry the greens have half of them so him just doubling down harder and harder hoping that he can get these people to really turn out best case scenario gets him into the mid-30s I think in terms of actual election day vote if he tries to moderate a bit maybe he can crawl up to like 36 37 38% but people know they're not moderates and that's kind of the problem for David eie he is very much radical he's very defined John rustad is very undefined as the conservative leader and that's actually helped him out a lot that he's not somebody with a history of doing anything that any one would be concerned about he's a blank slate and I don't mean that in terms of personality but he's just somebody who is more so just representing the change people want people just want anything but David eie they just want a guy who seems like a rational adult again and that's why people are being attracted to the conservatives it's the change narrative want to get rid of David eie and then the actual excitement at being able to like reverse all these policies and put in place somebody who's not constantly harping on about activist issues because David eie is an activist Premier he is a protester in the premier's office every every issue his approach to it is like an activist's approach he like you know drug deaths are up oh we should just put more money into safe Supply we should just give we should just decriminalize harder you know crime is in the streets just sanction the police more stop arresting people if we stop arresting people the crime goes down if we just disconnect the phone line from the police department and be they stop receiving calls in about crimes well then there's no more crime because we stop taking in reports that's actually their approach it's insane anyways but that should be it for me today guys go check out the polls online I can't really post the details in such a video like this but it's really good again Main Street the conservatives are up three polara the conservatives are up one uh I think that the NDP was still in trouble even if the conservatives never actually LED in the polls on Election Day simply because turnout's going to help the conservatives a lot the conservatives have the support uh they need where it's needed they basically own the Fraser Valley at this point they're going to get four or five points in or four or five seats in uh Vancouver Island I think we have a good shot at winning a large portion of the Metro Vancouver donut I think we can take half or more than half the Sur seats Richmond I think we get 100% of it and you know a lot of the dut ridings around Vancouver Vancouver lingara I think her lock and in fact we could actually win David EBC the Vancouver Point gr is not a safe seat even right now before these polls came out David eie was only given a 75% shot of winning the seat and that's a default more center right uh you know BC liberal center right type of writing so he's not even in Friendly territory he just happened to beat Christy Clark back in 2013 because of how unpopular she had become anyways guys that should be it for me today have a good one you know donate to the BC conservatives there's a link in the description below and if you want to support my show you can donate to the giv and go legal fund down there as well we are being sued by a Chinese billionaire for defamation that in more than 2 and 1/2 years of this case going on costing me over $32,000 in legal fees he hasn't even submitted any actual evidence that we said or did anything wrong he is simply drag and get out because Alberta does not have anti- slap legislation that allows us to end such a ridiculous defamation case early