Montana State vs New Mexico | College Football Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

[Music] we we got some teams that we don't get to talk about a whole lot moves us over to Albuquerque the FCS preseason number four ranked team the Montana State Bobcats they visit new coach broncco Minden Hall and of course the New Mexico Lobos uh they are expected to be one of the worst teams in the FBS this season this one's 400 pm. Eastern Time on FS1 and uh it looks like the odds are Montana State minus 11 on the road a an FCS Road favorite of more than 10 points that is pretty remarkable money line minus 455 on the Bobcats total is 54 currently at bet us and uh and look that's an implied score of what 30 33 to 22 somewhere around there 3 32 and a half to 22 and a half something like that uh if you think it's weird that Montana state is a favorite as an FCS team over an FBS team you can look back at last year the Bobcats finished number 67 in the Sagarin ratings last year New Mexico finished number 144 so Montana state is expected to be better this year than they were last year New Mexico is expected to be a little worse this season than they were so hence the number there all right helmet time which one looks the best here both gray silverish you know just different logos uh Kyle we'll start with you which one do you like here I'm gonna go with New Mexico but I kind of like both of them Parker I I feel like I know which direction you're going here but uh but tell me what you're thinking as a as a proud degree holder from the University of Montana uh and someone who has his head squared uh screwed firmly on his shoulders I I I detest everything about the Montana State Bobcats aesthetic and so of course I have to go with Lobos here I will also I will make it the sweep I'm going with New Mexico I'm a sucker for a lobo right do you'all remember the comic book character Lobo like that was popular back in the 90s it was like some Bounty Hunter alien I think it was a DC Comic I I don't know what happened to that guy but I that's what the helmet should be but I do like the the wolf design here that's I feel like that should be the helmet design was the old Lobo uh comic book figure anyway all right Trends let's talk about Trends New Mexico was 5 and three against the spread with three outright wins as a dog in their last eight in 2023 of course they have changed coaches got a basically a new team here um so we'll see what those Trends mean Montana state they're coming off uh an 8 and four FCS playoff season which was really viewed as a disappointment for this bunch I only found nine lined games for the Bobcats they were five and four against the spread as a favorite that includes two outright losses as a singled digigit Road favorite now New Mexico 6-0 straight up against FCS teams but they are only two and four against the spread in those games so just so you know what we're looking at here uh the last time the Bobcats played a Mountain West team was 2021 uh they played at Wyoming they lost that one 19 to6 on a Wyoming touchdown with less than a minute left but to be fair Brent vigan he was Craig Bow's offensive coordinator at Wyoming until he took that job at Montana State back in 2021 Parker I want to start with you obviously it is it's difficult to compare FCS teams to FBS teams but I I feel like you're pretty familiar with the Bobcats so tell me how you're breaking this one down yeah the biggest one here so obviously I don't have any play-by-play data on FCS so so I'm going more traditional stats here and more box score stats to kind of learn what we can learn first off as the depth chart we're looking at four starters on the offensive line for Montana State uh turning over a couple of those are transfers a couple of those are experienced guys but um Montana state did run on about 62% of their plays last year not accounting for situation so very run dominant team they don't want to pass unless they have to and that's one thing that you know if you're New Mexico if you could get something early and get Montana State into a position where they have to pass that's going to be your key to kind of keeping this close I do think that uh New Mexico's run defense 105th in EPA per Rush last year even as teams passed against them slightly more than average um it is really really really tough to to face this Montana State front obviously the defensive line is going to have a big task with this offense where they're going to have you know quarterback run in addition to um in addition to just your standard run package they do a lot of really fun stuff there a lot of skill Talent returning for the Montana State offense uh as well so should be able to run their game um this number did get pretty big here I do think that Montana state is very clearly the better team and I think I was in on this at you know earlier you could get at s and a half 8 and a half before it kind of got super big here the the only issue that that I have with taking Montana state is um pace and just how much they run the ball uh and how much they're going to try to minimized variants here because they are the favorite and that that's going to keep the clock rolling a whole lot and uh and really shorten the game I don't know if they can get to that big of a uh that that big of a lead and maintain now they're up here at you know 10 and a half 11 points as the line New Mexico you know love Bronco think that there's some intangible stickiness about the quality of their team and how they can win games that they necessarily but that roster is pretty far from competitive right now and and they've got a rebuild in front of them so I think this is a good opportunity if this game was for instance in November um I'd be much more interested in New Mexico being able to say hey we we have our guys we're in FBS program we've got a coach that's been around the block but with all the turnover and with how good Montana State looked last year um it's it's Montana State or nothing for me yeah I can I can understand that this line opened four and a half and it's out to 11 now I mean the four and a halfs were not around for very long I mean they got hit immediately uh Kyle you're you're not an FCS better but you know we're low on options this week this seems like a fun game right in the middle of the afternoon what uh what do you think about this one yeah I mean I I I think it's fair to say that I don't know a lot about Montana State I did look into them quite a bit here this week Mexico I mean I know they're not good I know that much uh that's probably the most important part right um I think Montana State's uh you know consistently really good team in FCS they have a really good quarterback in Mot I believe that's how you pronounce his name 3,200 passing yards 2700 rushing yards the guy uh very good he has been a little bit injury-prone they used to have Shawn Chambers uh who used to be at Wyoming they kind of mixed him up um I think Montana state did lose a decent amount in the portal um guys that went to even bigger places um some people think that Montana State's like at least uh flat no better than uh what they were last year I I think on the other side Bronco men Hall was a really good hire for New Mexico and frankly I'm a bit surprised he took the job uh a tough gig certainly I think menen Hall is a really good coach so long term I think things will get better damp Pier looked good in limited time for New Mexico last year they did lose a key running back can they get any kind of a running game going from the back field uh I mean that they're going to need it uh defensively New Mexico's linebackers are just terrible very weak they got a USC transfer on the defensive line that they're hoping will help quite a bit they did give up 5.1 yards per carry last year it is extremely rare to see an FCS team laying this kind of number and the number just getting steamed upward like you know people just think it's a free money um I wouldn't menen Hall be telling his kids at this point like you guys are double digit underdogs against an FCS team uh you like they just don't think you can do it they think you have no chance um I think at this number I would probably lean to Mexico if anything uh the people who took the early number on Montana State it makes a lot of sense to me but uh this is a tough one I I correct me if I'm wrong but I think this is the most an FCS team has ever been laying against a division one team yeah that is correct it is the highest number ever for an FCS team to be favored it's it's remarkable uh you brought up Danier you know Devon dampier the starting quarterback for New Mexico as you mentioned he he did show some promise last year uh but he is insanely inexperienced you know compared to the Bobcats quarterback Tommy melet uh touchdown Tommy as you're seeing in the chat here uh PFF graded him the number four quarterback in FCS uh he's been the Bobcat starter since the 2021 playoffs I mean Montana state was number two in FCS in scoring offense and in rushing yards per game last year and they returned their quarterback they got five offensive lineman back with starting experience uh they got their top four running backs back they got their top wide receiver back you know New Mexico's defense does have six starters back it's expected to be their stronger unit especially with menal as the coach but I mean they better bring lunch pales for this one uh the numbers way too rich for me I think Montana state is likely the correct side uh at least as far as winning the game I mean at this number I would certainly lean New Mexico but I mean who really wants to bet New Mexico I I'm staying away from it so so no official plays for us on this one but [Music]