The election results are in from Germany! But
hold on—these aren’t the national elections we’re talking about. Instead, we’re zooming in
on the regional elections in two eastern states, Thuringia and Saxony. Now, you might be
thinking, “Why should I care about some regional elections in Germany?” Well, let
me tell you, these results could be a sneak peek into next year’s national elections
and might even send ripples across the EU. And, wow, were these results fascinating!
Imagine this: a far-left conservative populist (yes, you read that right—left-wing
and conservative combined) and a far-right party both scoring big wins.
But before we dive into the juicy details of these election outcomes and their
potential impact on Germany and beyond, let’s take a quick detour to explore
the intriguing world of German politics. Germany’s political system operates on a
principle known as federalism. At its core, federalism means that power is divided between the
national government (the federal level) and the 16 individual states, known as Länder. Each of these
Länder has its own parliament and government, giving them significant autonomy to
make decisions on various issues. The federal government also has a
parliament, called the Bundestag, and handles nationwide responsibilities like
foreign policy, defence, immigration laws, and taxes. Meanwhile, the Länder have control
over education, policing, cultural affairs, and healthcare, allowing them to tailor these
areas to the specific needs of their populations. This balance of power allows
Germany to maintain national unity while respecting regional diversity.
In regional elections, like those in Thuringia and Saxony, the residents have the opportunity to vote
for representatives in their state parliaments, known as the Landtag. But here’s where it gets
interesting—German voters actually get two votes! To show you how this works, let's dive into
a real example from last Sunday's elections. This is Thuringia, one of the two states where
voters went to the polls. Thuringia is divided into 44 electoral districts, and we’ll focus
on Sömmerda, district number 17, as an example. In this district, voters cast their first
vote for a direct candidate within their local electoral area. The candidate who gets
the most votes wins a seat in the Landtag, securing what’s known as a
direct mandate. In Sömmerda 2, this went to Mr. Czuppon from the AfD party.
Now, if we look at Thuringia as a whole, 44 seats in the Landtag are filled by these direct
mandate winners from each district's first vote. But the second vote is even more important
because it determines the overall composition of the state parliament. With this vote, people
choose a party rather than a specific candidate. Now, looking at Thuringia as a whole, most people
used their second vote for the AfD, followed by the CDU and BSW. To ensure proportionality,
additional seats are added to the parliament so that the overall representation matches
the proportion of votes each party received. This system balances direct representation with
proportional representation, ensuring that both the local favourites and overall party
preferences are reflected in the Landtag. Yes, yes, it’s over-engineered and a bit
complicated. But hey, we’re talking about Germany here—what else would you expect?
So, if we add the 1st vote and 2nd vote results together, these are the
election results in Thueringen, with the AfD clear winners with 32 seats, followed
by CDU with 23 seats and then BSW with 15 seats. As you can see, the far-right AfD emerged as
the winner. This outcome might be influenced by the recent deadly knife attack in Solingen,
Germany, which tragically claimed three lives and left eight others seriously injured.
The Islamic State terrorist group claimed responsibility for the attack, leading to
widespread, though varied, media coverage. Ground News found nearly 460 sources covering
this from across the political spectrum and the world. And sorting through their
coverage, I can see how the German government is focusing on how this attack put
a spotlight on the nation’s deportation laws. I can either click to read through their coverage
or keep scrolling for a broader perspective like UK-based Financial Times reporting on how the
stabbings rekindled the EU’s far-right fears. This attack could have a profound impact
on the upcoming regional elections, swaying public opinion depending
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Let’s turn our attention to the recent election results in Saxony. The
clear losers in this election were the FDP, who failed to secure enough votes and ended up in the
"Others" category, followed by the Left, Greens, and SPD, who also performed poorly.
The left-wing conservative BSW claimed third place, securing 11.8% of the
vote, which translates into 15 seats. In second place was the far-right AfD, which
garnered 30.6% of the vote and won 40 seats. Leading the pack, the centre-right CDU
emerged victorious with 31.9% of the vote, earning them 42 seats.
When we look at the recent election results in Thuringia and Saxony, the
standout winners are the AfD, CDU, and BSW. For those who have been living under
a rock, the AfD is Germany’s far-right party. Their lead candidate in Thuringia,
Björn Höcke, is even more extreme than most within his party. He is even facing
legal action for using Nazi rhetoric. In Saxony, the CDU emerged as the winner. The CDU
is Germany’s center-right party and serves as the main opposition to the current federal government.
It’s the party of notable figures like former Chancellor Angela Merkel and the current President
of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. BSW, or Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, is particularly
intriguing because this party didn’t exist just a year ago. Led by Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent
left-wing politician formerly associated with The Left party, BSW seeks to challenge the
traditional party landscape. They advocate for a mix of left-leaning economic policies, such
as social justice and wealth redistribution, alongside more conservative stances
on immigration and cultural identity. The real challenge now is determining
which parties will form coalitions in Saxony and Thuringia, a task
made especially difficult by the fact that all parties have ruled
out collaborating with the AfD. Nonetheless, in Thuringia, a potential
coalition could involve the CDU, BSW, and SPD. In Saxony, the most likely coalition options are either a CDU-BSW-SPD alliance
or a CDU-BSW-Greens partnership. However, forming these
coalitions will be challenging, as these parties have fundamentally
different ideologies and priorities. Now that you’ve probably learned more about
German state elections than you ever wanted to. So what does it all mean for Germany and the EU? In the short term, not much will change. But in the long term, things could shift significantly. Take Germany’s ruling coalition—the SPD, Greens,
and FDP. They didn’t just underperform in Thuringia and Saxony; they did terribly! There’s
growing pressure on the German government to call for new elections, and these results might just
add fuel to that fire. Even if they hang on, Germany’s next scheduled elections are next
year, whcih could see them suffer heavy losses. Current polls suggest the CDU will
win, with strong gains for the AfD and BSW. While the CDU remains firmly pro-Ukraine
and pro-EU, their talk of tightening border controls could put them on a collision course
with the EU. But considering that very few seem to be happy with the European migration,
this could also be seen as a good thing. As for the AfD and BSW, they’re even more
at odds with the EU. Both are critical of support for Ukraine, and the AfD wants to abolish
the euro and possibly exit the EU altogether. So, the next year is shaping up to
be very intriguing, with Germany—the powerhouse of Europe—navigating
uncharted political waters. But - what do you think? Are you happy
with the German election results? Let us know in the comments and please like the
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please sign up to Patreon. Until next time!