Week 1 Fantasy Football RB Rankings (Top 49)

Week 1 Running Back Rankings for 2024 Fantasy Football we have never been more back week one running back rankings and tears from the mind the Noggin of Hayden Winks kicks off our first round of games we'll be doing these every single week for every single position wide receivers along with quarterbacks and tight ends so that means all of you need to lock in for the season because just because you smashed your draft by following and watching our content the work does not end there Today's Show is all about defending my rankings and I have a bunch of charts stats to go off of also the underdog pickham lobby but today's goal for me is for you guys to earn the subscription not have Josh yell at you guys for not subscribing I'm trying to earn your guys' vote I'm sure producer weaves has thrown our content schedule at you right now again September October super important for your fantasy leagues we also have a Sunday start and sit show that starts probably around 10:30 Eastern here it's live for two and a half hours all that we do is answer your questions so if you're new around here every single week we go through all these positions Hayden has come with these rankings I also compare them to fantasy pros consensus rankings which is like 53 plus experts which I think gives us a really good idea of your flag plants each and every week which is like a really really good point of conversation for both of us yeah we'll get into some of the matchup notes uh as well but a lot of my stuff is going to be about the usage and then the implied team total as well and I have some charts that are going to go through all of that type of stuff so we'll we'll get it going right at the top as always we kick things off at the first three Top 3 DAWGS. CMC, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson running backs and no shock it is just as the top three running backs were selected in your fantasy drafts that is chrish mcaffrey against the New York Jets Bree Hall at the San Francisco 49ers battle the top two backs and then bejan Robinson against the Pittsburgh Steelers good news Trent Williams comes back for uh Christian mcaffrey this is not the easiest matchup on paper for both the top two guys both offenses choose to play really slow and also they have some defensive lineman that said Christian mcaffrey he's honestly in his own tier for the time being 114.5 total yards in the underdog fantasy pick them Lobby uh Bree Hall it's not the easiest matchup but I will say the 49ers did allow the fifth most receptions to running backs last season Dre Greenlaw the linebacker to for the 49ers remember he popped his Achilles during the Super Bowl so he's out so this is not like the crazy Peak 49ers defense that we probably remember from like 2018 to 2021 it's a little bit of a step down still these are the to me the two best fantasy assets there is and I'll throw in the lack of Eric Armstead who might be one of the better run Defenders on that 49ers defensive line he's obviously now a Jacksonville Jaguar plus this Jets reworked offensive line they've added so much talent to it we'll see how that impacts it I can't get out of my head and our Varian Bill bich talked about it in the clip that you all can check out the connection between Bree Hall and Aaron Rogers could be a lot of fun just think back to the years that we had with Aaron Jones connected to Aaron Rogers just a quick stat and this comes from NFL Pro the 49ers averaged 7.3 yards per play with Brock pie chrisan mcaffry brand auk and Debo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field together last season uh pretty good they shed the lineup together 447 plays last year anything you want to say about bejon I mean we're going to talk a lot about the running backs on the other end but bejon as we've talked about all he needs is just touchdown scoring opportunities from like a per standpoint he was second in targets last year at the running back position hopefully we haven't seen it so far because we know the Falcons withhold all their starters in the preseason hopefully we get to see a Workhorse usage role for bejon here in week one the Steelers not an easy matchup but they are at home there I'm very excited to see what Kurt Cousins looks like I have no idea if he's going to be back somewhat back whatever his uh basically how he moves inside the pocket and then yeah who's going to be the goal line back I'm guessing it's gonna be bejon but Tyler aler seems hard to get him off the field okay before we go any further we mentioned Bree Hall's name you all should be mentioning Bree Hall's name for the next few days because if you use Jahmyr Gibbs promo code the show you get a Bree Hall special all he needs is one yard that's it one yard plus if you sign up with the link in the description again or promo code the show you're also getting for everyone everyone a Travis Kelce special new customers new players and old and we also have tokens vultures everything you need again this is over on Underdog so go play now is the perfect time to do so okay your running back four already differing from consensus because he's their running back seven Hayden that is jir Gibbs against against the Los Angeles Rams I feel really good about this one uh this chart it shows uh projected points you can see the Lions on the very right side of the chart first in implied points on the week they play with a lot of pace as well lots of play volume in general and then the Rams they don't have Aaron Donald last time I checked and then their linebacker they just traded away he was a really productive player uh last season as well they were already fifth highest in yards before contact that's the the Rams defense last season so there should be a lot of space for jir Gibbs to really show off of his speed I think the big wrinkle this year is jir Gibbs we know he's a good pass catcher last year some things just kind of went wrong I think this is the year where he starts locking in and then all of a sudden we could see like an Alvin chimra type of season yeah I'm excited to see and we're going to say this for a number of players excited to see his usage in the passing games you talked about I was a little St shocked going back and looking at it he was eighth among all running backs and targets last year at 73 but it wouldn't be surprising if he's top three this season at that position especially with maybe a little bit more uncertainty at the wide receiver 2 and wide receiver three positions the other Avenue where he could be scoring more points is that Dave Montgomery had 31 carries inside the 10 yard line last year and Jamir Gibbs had 21 and that Gap grew even more inside the five yard line so if that area is not the dve Montgomery territory then Jamir Gibbs gets more fantasy points and again we need to mention that he's coming off a hamstring injury it might have been a recurrence we're not exactly sure of something earlier in the offseason but just something to monitor when we head into week one okay your running back five is saquin Barkley Saquon Barkley against the Green Bay Packers fourth highest team total on the week will'll learn if they're going to actually do the tush push or not but this is one of the highest scoring matchups to me uh I think down there in Brazil but seark I think they're going to dial up a couple passes to him but really it just should be a huge huge boost in his efficiency on the ground there uh the Packers defense been pretty hit and miss over the years I think they have a a chance to be much better with a new defensive coordinator but let's see them prove that first I think that this going to be a statement game for saquan Barkley yeah Jeff Halley is the Packers new defensive coordinator he was the old Boston College head coach uh it always felt like to us that the pieces of the Packers defense were better than the some of the parts I think last year according to NFL pro they ranked 26th in run defense on car's outside the tackles 23rd and car's under Center uh I think we actually see the Eagles run under Center way more often this year with more at the helm I mean 86% of their snaps were in the shotgun last year for the Philadelphia Eagles that was obviously number one in the NFL and getting sequan a little ahead of steam running behind this offensive line could be ecstatic electric let's put it that way one other note from from Sports info Solutions I was looking at Zone option where the running back actually keeps the ball and that's going to be a new thing with saquan playing with Jaylen Herz number one in most attempts on those runs last year running backs DeAndre Swift it's been a while since we've seen saquan Barkley do that with an offensive line so maybe those explosive runs that everyone freaks out about that he doesn't have right I've Got a Feeling those are come back this year I think so as well I mean the other part about deandrew Swift last year he had the ninth most carries inside the 10 yard line in the entire NFL again attached to Jaylen Herz and this Philadelphia Eagles team he only scored five times on those 27 carries so all we're asking is saqu ber to be a couple yards better than DeAndre Swift in that territory of the field next Jonathan Jonathan Taylor Taylor against the Houston Texans is your running back six we know that like by the way these people are locked into your lineups it's week one we want to go through all these matchups yep and people play DFS we have the pick them Lobby speaking of uh Jonathan Taylor 91 and a half total yards so not that much different than your bej and saquon Barkley this are actually a really big tier of guys in the 80s and 90s uh but the Texans defense this is one of these defense when I was going on my defensive shows I was kind of taking a stand on they're pretty damn good all of a sudden like they just added denil Hunter uh last year the Texans allowed the fewest yards before contact and the lowest rushing success rate allowed Deo Ryan want to stop the run make you throw it over the top because he knows he has Edge rushers in a number one corner the good news for Jonathan Taylor is he has not played basically at all with Anthony Richardson just like we talked about with saquan Barkley you're gonna get some of these Zone reads where the edge rusher has to have eyes on the quarterback that's going to open things up for him again so I'm expecting a ton of explosive plays for Jonathan Taylor the question becomes who's finishing off these drives Anthony richen or Jonathan Taylor uh but the good news you GNA have Josh Jacobs a lot of yards massive flag plant on the way because he is running back 16 in consensus rankings and your running back seven will surprise no one this is Green Bay Packers new running back Josh Jacobs at the Philadelphia Eagles Why do you think you disagree so much with your colleagues here Hayden uh not first of all not my colleagues my colleagues over on the underdog fantasy team in the pickham lobby 85 a half total yards this one to me is pretty simple AJ Dylan was supposed to be the rb2 he's all of a sudden out for the year with the Stinger injury marshan lyd just returned to practice he hasn't earned the rb2 status that's going to be Emanuel Wilson in this first game this was not the plan two weeks ago we've talked about uh laflor likes Josh Jacobs then my colleagues out there he's gon to catch more passes than we're expecting um but also the Packers were fifth in their inside run efficiency the Eagles last year 20 seconds per NFL pro so we're going to see Vic fangio that's the new defensive coordinator for Philadelphia two high shells at the third highest rate on first and second Downs what does that mean two safeties light boxes the third most light boxes in the NFL I think that this team was inable to run right up the middle last year that's why they ditched Aaron Jones Broad and Josh's more physical rusher and he's going to run right up the middle so I think it's going to be a little bit of an identity shift uh for Josh Jacobs I think it's like the perfect matchup with Vic fangio and two I shells to run right up the middle let's not forget how just terrible this Eagles defense was at the end of last year now that also spurred a whole bunch of offseason moves as you talked about a new defensive coordinator but simply put like Jordan Davis Jaylen Carter they have to play better they got two new linebackers and Zack Bon and Devin white they've kind of reshuffled that entire second level on top of it so it's uh there's a lot of work on there and Jos Jacobs coming in and making a statement in week one and why we both really liked him in drafts in comparison to a bunch of other people uh would not surprise me would not surprise me at all okay kyen Williams is your running back eight high for a punt returner Hayden it Kyren Williams is really high for a punt returner I did listen to Blake corm and kyen Williams I think they're on the Rich Eisen show and I felt a little bit more comfortable that Kiren Williams like is just going to be fair catching uh passes back there that Shawn M just trust kyen Williams either way we've already talked about that last year the Lions allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this off season they added defensive tackle DJ reader they added a new Edge 2 as well so this is not like a straightforward matchup for Kiren Williams but Rams Lions can be 30 to 28 before you know it so I didn't want to put him up here in fact I did flip Kiren one spot ahead of Josh Jacobs once again this a very flat tier of rb1s all right as always we love we love a rankings change on the Fly the Rams are entering the season with some offensive line injuries right tackle h Rob havenstein dealing with an ankle injury Jonah Jackson dealing with the shoulder I believe their left tackle L Jackson is suspended for two games I think Joe not booom fills in at that spot who was likely going to be the left tackle starter heading into last year um I was being extremely sarcastic with that punt return comment hopefully you all know our stance on all of that I mean the big thing there there's a couple things here one we really didn't get to see that much of a healthy Matthew staff K Williams Cooper cup and puku niua on the field last year they gained 6.8 yards per play which would have led the NFL they only played together 387 snaps last year yep that was again with a banged up Cooper cup out there so yes now the offensive line is banged up but man when this offense and the core is all together on the field it's arguably a top five offense in the league now the other part of that with how good they can be is just the volume and opportunity to Blake Quorum and Hayden no matter which direction it goes here in week one uh I'm sure no one will freak out and exaggerate one way or the other yeah my thought process is even if Blake corn becomes a thing are we expecting that in week one like maybe over the course of the Season he earns more roles but I think that Kiren Williams is absolutely beloved by Shawn mcy so uh hopefully I'm right there De'Von Achane Devon Anan Miami Dolphins you're running back nine against the Jacksonville Jaguars what I'm amped to see Hayden is him as a pass catcher like this has been hinted at all summer long in every sing single press conference the Dolphins have tons of questions outside of their wide receiver two spot on offense we know they run Pony Personnel at a ridiculous high of rate that can equal a whole bunch of explosive gains uh but what if what if devvon hen also gets his hands on the football in the passing game much more often this year yeah as a starting point Dolphins no surprise here third highest team total of the week so we're expecting lots of points here Jacksonville also allowed the most receptions to running backs last season that's pretty pretty sick Odell Beckham he starts the season on the pup list he's going to be out which I think is why we're expecting him to play a little bit of receiver and slot receiver which is like classic trop but you and I both believe that he will be playing a little bit of wide receiver and then even if he is just playing standard his standard role Jacksonville was 22nd in defending runs outside the tackles according to NFL pro obviously that's where the dolphins go crazy here so the the volume isn't there compared to the rest of this list actually even the the pick them lobby at 74 and a half total yards is one tier above but his range of outcomes is so wide that he can finish with 13 yards and obviously none of us would be surprised also my eyes are on the inside the 5 yard line usage because last year rahee moard scored 11 touchdowns on 19 carries inside of the 5 yard line that led the NFL uh what if that tight slightly ticks down and goes up to Devon hen just a little bit more your stuff about Jacksonville's defense I hear you uh we do like their new defensive coordinator Ryan neelon who made chicken salad I felt at times out of chicken [ __ ] with the Atlanta Falcons defense definitely and you bring in Eric Armstead who uh did some nice work for the 49ers last year even though he missed some up training camp okay next Travis Etienne Travis etn closes out speaking of Travis etn volume sponge this is against this Miami Dolphins defense who also has a new defensive coordinator your expectations here pretty much willing to throw out all the defensive stats for Miami last year especially against the Run they lost Christian Wilkins who made I think like what a hundred million in free agency an absolute monster defensive tackle that plays basically every single snap Bradley chub coming off the ACL he's not going to play in this one Jaylen Phillips he popped his Achilles uh late in the season he's probably gonna be on a snap count if he suits up and the backup plan the first round Edge rusher chop Robinson is about as big as me and was not playing uh many rushing snaps at Penn State like not exaggeration like they would like sub substitute him out so I don't think that the the Dolphins like Rush defense is supposed to be very good this season so it really just comes down to is tank bsby going to play 20% of the snaps or is he gonna be playing 5% of the snaps either way uh I like Jacksonville's uh offense a ton this is obviously be one of the highest scoring games of the week and spoiler alert and unless you've changed your rankings you don't have tank Bigsby inside your top 50 ranked running back so that means you believe it's going to be a heavy dose of Travis eten once again even though we both do believe that tank Bixby is going to mix in and can't just be as as bad as his seven targets were last year uh just a note from NFL pro Jaguars rushers gained negative 269 rushing yards overexp expected on design runs during the 2023 season the fewest in the NFL and the third fewest achieved by an offense during a season since 2018 but they did bring in a new center in Mitch Mo so hopefully that helps everything Hayden yeah we can hope we can hope okay let's Rachaad White go down to the next tier that's kicked off by Rashad White against the Washington Commanders Hayden nice segue talking about new centers and rushing efficiency grah Barton that could help a lot for Rashad white here not even just among offensive lineman I thought that grah Barton was one of the best players in all of preseason like immediately caught my eye as a reminder Rashad way was running back 13 in usage last year it just came down he was not efficient enough running the ball that's why you draft somebody like Graham Barton I think this there's a chance this is an average to maybe a little bit above average offensive line after being one of the worst last year regardless of that the commanders stink on defense they were 28th in my rankings here uh they passed the ball the offense is facing the commanders pass the ball a ton which is good news because Rashad white is fantastic at catching the the ball out of the back field they allowed the fourth most receptions uh to the running back position Bobby Wagner was their their answer at linebacker for the commanders he's 34 years old I might be faster than he is I'm joking right there yeah they allow allowed the fifth most points so I think it's a good spot for the bucket years and Rashad white it's a really nice test for Graham Barton in his first time though because you get donon Payne you get Jonathan Allen heck you get Johnny Newton who they keep investing into this interior defensive line we know that Dan Quinn comes in and you know he likes to use position lless Defenders like Frankie louu is that Jeremy chin is that a few other players are like that so this is going to be a fascinating one especially with a new play caller in Liam Cohen if he's as devout of sticking with the run as Dave Canalis was with Rashad white last year yeah at least Cohen when he was at Kentucky and then this is a classic sea McVey tree really had one running back Chris Rodriguez your boy Ray Davis were some examples of kind of sticking with one bcow so we'll see Bucky I think Bucky G's gonna play but not as much as people think at least initially yeah let's definitely mention that moving forward where some of these guys are going to mix in with rookies or second-year players maybe a bit more often and Bucky Irving is the apple of some people's eye out there that's for sure okay Thursday night is beo against the Baltimore Ravens he is your running Isiah Pacheco back 12 that's kind of where I stuck him with my like season long rankings after we got the somaj perine news there it sounds like CH I'm not even sure if he's going to come back he's on the NFI list with with the PTSD I think the Chiefs are just telling him get your mind right don't worry about football I think that Isaiah peka is going to play a ton that's what he did on that Super Bowl run the Chiefs have the seventh highest team total of the week they are playing the Baltimore Ravens this is not an easy matchup by any means he had 68 yards on 24 carries in the playoff game against them uh caught all four of his targets so that's when he was a bcow was not efficient on his those carries last season this is probably going to be a pretty close game here so I think kind of middling this as rb12 is is the best alchem I think that per ry's not going to play the full Jerick McKinnon role not even the full CH R I do think week one the easiest answer is really leaning on Isaiah Pacho we did get confirmation from the Athletics Nate Taylor that said quote P Ron's expect to have a passing down role in this first game so third Downs all that type of stuff that was expected but nice to hear confirmation on it just overarching point for this Chiefs team I mean they were brutal to watch at points last year they still ranked seventh in the NFL in Red Zone possessions and were second in go tog go place now they do pass it feels like more than any other team inside the 20 and inside the 10 yard line I mean is Pacho got 10 of their lone 15 running back carries inside the 10 yard line last year so uh really for him to be a top five running back we need that to go like 20 carries 25 carries inside the 10 yard lead for him at the very least next Joe Mixon Joe Mixon is your running back 13 against this Indianapolis Colts defense on the road so I have moved him down since then but since we've brought him up let's uh let's talk about him uh the Texans do you have the fifth highest team total of the week really like that the Colts defense fourth most fantasy points to running backs as well uh offense is facing Indianapolis run the ball at the second highest rate so it really just comes down to like I just think that CJ shroud's going to dice up the Colt secondary which is one of the very worst so I know the team total is high Mixon can just hit the end zone with some goal line stuff but wait till we get to my wide receiver and quarterback rankings where I have these damn Texans because the Colts secondary is brutal right now Texans offense was a lot of fun to watch last year uh but the spreadsheets would tell you that it wasn't efficient so that matters a lot um because of their first and second down run rate and how inefficient it was you can put that to a whole bunch of different reasons uh offensive line Health running back Talent all that type of stuff look that's going to change now they're going to probably run fewer two tight ends and fullback sets and that's goingon to be three wide receiver sets which they were about 16th or 17th or 20th in the league I think last year um anyways Joe Mixon underson a runs is where shines he should do that much more often than he has for the Cincinnati Bengals over the last few years so does that mean you have Alvin Chima before Joe Mixon Alvin Alvin C is my running Alvin Kamara back 13 ahead of him pickham Lobby I mean absolutely loves chimra 87 and a half total yards that's six fewer yards than Bree and beon so this is a huge tier um and if you're in a full PPR League you can probably even move them higher than this Carolina Panthers they're not good on defense uh 31st in my rankings here dead last in rushing EPA allowed last year they were six worse against fantasy running backs it's the Alvin chimra show I know that he put up his house uh on the market but he's going to be out there for week one and he's gonna get the ball uh a ton so I I don't love the offensive line I don't even love like the play design this is the worst sell job you've ever given a player for a top 15 ranking the Panthers are really bad on on defense let me reiterate and Alvin CRA is going to catch five passes that's all you really need the comments are not love you for saying that the Panthers defense is bad by the way they der Brown asan Robinson you know it'll be uh it'll be an interesting one I mean with a new play caller it will be fascinating to see if we get checkdown artist Alvin chra from the jump this year because remember like that first game back it was like he got 16 targets or something absurd so where does James Cook because he's on this list does he go ahead or below Joe right James Cook there yeah you have it right there Bills second highest team total of the week their Sixpoint home f faes Arizona Cardinals defense guess what they're also not very good last year the Bills were third in their designed run efficiency the Cardinals 27th at defending those type of runs according to NFL pro so this is an eruption spot uh for James Cook at least in terms of efficiency it really just comes down to touchdowns if I knew that he had a path to goal in Opportunities I'd move him up a tier we just don't have that exactly ironed out here so the Cardinals a lot of their Investments have been on offense they're still really lacking Talent uh on defense here and we saw Joe Brady the emphasis was be a little bit more balance run the ball so I think that James Cook his his yardage the touch counts are going to be there we're just going to learn a lot if Ray Davis your boy is inside the five yard line or if that is gonna be James Cook I mean that's vital that is so crucial to James Cook season and if he gets them in week one he's Off to the Races if he already doesn't have the role inside the 5 yard line there's going to be questions of what's his Peak what's his ceiling for the entire season because he was a good player last year on a good offense and he was still the running back 19 in points per game and it came down to Josh Allen having 14 carries inside the five yard line latavius Murray having 11 and James Cook only having four and that was even with Once Joe Brady took over James Cook had 20 opportunities per game on average in each of those so it's a huge huge Turning Point Crossroads moment for James Cook if he's trusted inside the 10 yard line or if he's not and he's still just a between the 20s player for this team Derrik Henry all the way down as Derrick Henry running back 16 on the road granted against a very good Kansas City defense led by Steve spagnolo but man Hayden running back 16 how about running back 15 I moved him up one spot ahead of Joe Mixon here here's the issues with with Derrick Henry they're two and a half Point dogs in Kansas City so this is not like the most favorable game script that we're going to have d der Henry over the course of the Season his pick them stuff 74 a half total yards so that's chopping off 10 to 20 yards over there now what's weird about this matchup is the Chiefs defense not very good against like stacked runs uh the Ravens were seventh in efficiency there the Chiefs they were 27th against like stacked boxes in teams running into them obviously that's what Baltimore is going to do then last year in the playoffs this went completely viral the Ravens chose to pass the ball at a 69% clip in neutral situations and they got eliminated in the playoffs remember they were like pass pass punt there was a couple fumbles and everyone Wasing why aren't you running the ball why aren't you running the ball that's why you bring in Derrick Henry for this matchup so I'm just very curious to see if they're going to be able to establish the run and get that thing going because Steve spagnol he's so good uh in the secondary and coaching up his players there uh so it really just comes down to like Can the Ravens establish the ball early here um so I'm kind of playing in a in a middle ground situation I mentioned Nate Taylor's appearance on scoop city which is again the athletic football one of their podcasts um he's a little nervous about this Kan City Chiefs defense heading into the season said they probably won't start the same way that they finished it which is a dominant unit I believe Nick Bolton has a bit of an elbow injury coming into this season as well uh I mean there are some really I think favorable stats and projections in the direction of Derek Henry in that I mean the Baltimore Ravens were sixth in points per Drive last year at 2.35 he was having to play in the Tennessee Titans which were 26th in the league and Lamar Jackson had just five carries inside the five yard line he won MVP without goal line touchdowns all of those went to Gus Edwards who led the NFL and Carries inside the 5 yard line with 19 so Derrik Henry should get all of those once again and maybe even more maybe even more there will be some weeks where I have Derrick Henry as as a running back five or so on the week just comes down to doesn't catch as many passes and they're expected to lose this game next and I will take this at a as a direct shot at me uh the consensus Kenneth Walker rankings have him as running back 13 you have Kenneth Walker as your running back 17 against the loaded Denver Broncos yeah Broncos dead last and yards before contact uh they allowed the second most fantasy points to run sixo favorites here they're six-point home favorites the Seahawks have the eighth highest team total of the week if you believe that he's going to be a true bcow then yeah i' would put him even above Rashad White we'll see that he has not been used that way wow uh I love Kenneth Walker I would love to see it but doesn't seem like it once again really flat tier you're starting Kenneth Walker there's like no even point for me being like negative he's projected for 81 and a half total yards I like him these guys are all pretty much the same I mean I think that I think the ranking speaks for itself a running back 11 versus a running back 17 your rankings we're we're about to see how much Ryan grub loves Kenneth Walker and again we learned so much in week one the offseason press conferences hype pieces about kw3 have been unreal I certainly hope he gets it and if he does he's off the races I know the offensive line has questions to it but I mean this is a six-point favorite spot here like this should be a a smash territory and we'll see if he's involved in the receiving game as much as Grub's talking about to next James Conor at the Buffalo Bills James Conner he's your running back 18 Buffalo Bills the defense is typically good I have some concerns this season Matt Milana their starting linebacker who's an absolute dog out there tore his biceps he's going to be out for quite a while and Arizona's offense is pretty intriguing especially on the ground James Connor was fantastic by himself first in yards after contact for carry last season but the Arizona offense just in general second in rushing against light boxes third against stacked boxes it doesn't matter how you defend them they were very good last season the Buffalo Bills they were 22nd in rushing EPA the Cardinals were third so this should be an opportunity to have a balanced approach on offense that should uh work as well so very excited to see what the Cardinals can do can they keep up with uh Josh Allen and the bills this is one of the one of my favorite games of the week Dave Montgomery listed as your running back 19 uh I'm a little David Montgomery shocked that he's this low I mean 28 points projected is for this Lions team it's down to about 20 7 and a quarter but jir gives his running back four you think there's a pretty drastic split here at DAV Montgomery's running back 19 yeah I think this is like kind of how it was like towards the end of of the season the Lions do have the highest team total we could see a touchdown from David Montgomery but like you alluded to uh with the jir Gibbs stuff you noted that huge split inside the five yard line and you uh kind of had that point where that could be a little bit closer to the middle that would not be good but no Aaron Donald this should be a good match up for for David mon in a potential shootout so like him as an rb2 but doesn't catch enough passes um as some of the other rb2s all right another second name on the same team Raheem Mostert that is Raheem moer who checks in here as your running back 20 with again Devon Anan being your running back nine so I moved him ahead of James Connor uh just looking at that outside the tackles run defense for Jacksonville being 22nd like I mentioned with Anan and if Anan is playing wide receiver that is good news for Raheem moster means he's going to have a huge uh workload on the ground I still think he's going to be the goal line back as well so we were drafting Raheem moer around this range when we had these huge concerns can he hold up well when we know he's healthy we should be ranking him higher than that that's kind of the thought process here so would not be surprised if Raheem moer scores a touchdown or two here yeah it's felt like in every single season Raheem moer has dealt with some type of injury he didn't last year we got an incredible season uh so now as you said said now that he's healthy heading into this year uh let's play him as we can because I don't know if we're going to get 17 straight games of Health from moer all over again okay we'll start tier three Najee Harris you're running back 21 the ultimate Revenge game of the weekend Hayden Arthur Smith travels to the a Falcons maybe we can just still stay at his house that he still has there yep uh Naji Harris your running back 21 here Falcons defense last year first in rushing EPA first at defending designed runs but that was a other defensive coordinator so we'll see if Atlanta is just as good this season regardless Steeler's fifth lowest team total of the week it sounds like Jaylen Warren is going to be back and ready to go uh after that hamstring injury in the preseason here very curious what the usage is like more importantly very curious could brri Jones block that's going to be a huge deal for the Steelers here but I think either way even if it's not working I would be pretty stunned if Nai doesn't walk out of here with 18 touches and he's going to be the goal line back I know that we like Jaylen Warren but na is going to be the goal line back if they ever get down there yeah so many moving pieces along that Steelers offensive line right now you mentioned the right tackle um they're also going to have a new center uh I believe Isaac sealo at one of their guard spots might be injured at this moment we don't have injury reports right now so we can get another rookie stepping in there potentially too this Arthur Smith rushing game is Just fantastic the design of it is so cool but if if you're already filling in second stringers in that from week one uh there's going to be some questions even though I mean this Falcons defense I think you're going to have a ton of questions to ask about just the talent they have in their front seven not the back four the front seven one of your Devin Singletary favorite players in the league heading into 2024 is uh Devin single ter he's your running back 22 the last time I checked your rankings on consensus he's running back 29 he played 29 of 33 snaps with the Giants first team offense in the preseason third and Longs check goal line job check Tyron Tracy we don't have injury reports I think that he's got a chance to play but too early to tell there I think he's just gonna catch the passes he's like a Brian Day ball guy I think that in week one they're going to really rely on him remember when you're playing the Vikings you have to be able to handle a bunch of chaos you're gonna have lots of guys at the line of scrimmage they're going to be blitzing at the highest rate in the league to me what does that mean you got to have your Veteran running back out there this is why they got him out there I moved him to running back 26 so a couple guys will go ahead of him but uh but yeah he he's like a a flex play depending on the league formats but if you're playing in a point per pass pro league then running back 22 makes sense for Deon big time Big Time big time all right that means ahead of him almost certainly is javante Javonte Williams Williams this is at the Seattle Seahawks this is a backfield that we have tons of interest in this year just from the amount of names that could be playing in it uh but javante seems to be able to handle a nice workload in week one yeah he was drafted to be a workload based guy now the Broncos second lowest team total of the week so more of a flex play than like a classic rb2 but Seattle's defense a lot to work on from last year they were second worst in rushing EPA they were third worst in fantasy points to running backs just in general uh the question for javante is who's playing the two-minute drill and the third and Longs I think that could be javante Williams it could be estimate for pass protection reasons but when you don't have samaji perine that becomes a question I think the most likely scenario early on the season go with the veteran and javante and then as the season progresses maybe give audre estim more run here but I think it's gonna be javante and Jalil mlen here we can see if the Broncos could keep this thing close yeah this is like the early season volume sponge territory because next up is chuba hubard at the New Orleans Saints he's actually running back 31 in Chuba Hubbard consensus rankings uh I'm not sure if that an indication of people's belief and talent of chuba hubard the belief in talent in the Carolina Panthers or just questions that someone else might mix in here chuba hub's going to get so much volume early in the season he he really is and the Panthers they don't have the lowest team total of the week they're fourth lowest so that's that's an improvement over last season from week 10 on when like Cheo was like very clearly the starter he was the running back 27 on a pathetic Panthers uh offense I think that there's a chance he looks a little bit better the offensive line in theory should be better Bryce and the weapons they all should be better pick them Lobby 71 a half total yards so like not expecting like a ton of receptions a ton of touchdowns here but in terms of like raw touches he's definitely going to be in the mix yeah I've already gotten a question from someone who covers the league uh should they go with chuba hubber or Xavier worthy in week one and you couldn't like have two different types of players and decisions in fantasy football versus the volume sponge on a team project for the fourth lowest points in the league or Xavier worthy and one catch equals the same amount that chuba Hub puts out there so it's like hey do I want the seven points that I'm probably gonna get from chuba or could I get three points or 17 points with saier Warth yeah either way you'll feel like an idiot so yeah let us know in the comments down below by the way now that you made this far uh 39% of you over the last 28 days have just joined the party you've joined the club you are ball knowers you appreciate the content cont that we put out you watch every single thing we appreciate you for hitting that subscribe button just scrolling just slightly over and pressing subscribe and the 61% leave right now I don't even want you here all right next Jerome Jerome Ford Ford Jerome Ford early season sponge before or after Devon single ter this is the line we're going with before uh before yeah and then I put chuba after single T this whole TI is mixed up I'm sorry we're going to get through this though Jerome Ford as you're moving these things around 66 and and half total yards in The Pick of laav obviously no Nick chub here they were they were willing to release deont foran I think that he's going to be active for this game but they're goingon to ride Jerome forward because he's a perfect back for the offense that the Browns want to run this year more spread Concepts pass first explosives and that's what Jerome Ford's going to do just as important as all that though the Cowboys allowed the highest rushing success rate in the League last year they were awful down the stretch drafted a first round defensive tackle Mazy Smith last year and they could not play him and even if they are playing him he's more of a pass rush guy than like a run stopper they just Panic signed some veterans that are most likely washed uh late in August to try to fill their defensive tackle spot their linebackers are still either undersiz or Eric Kendricks uh who's pretty old they're not going to be able to stop the run this year and out in space Drome Ford's going to catch some passes so uh this is the time to be starting R forward just like chuba Hub like these guys like week 12 not so clear week one this is why you drafted them so these guys are Flex plays who's next for you is it Aaron Jones Aaron Jones at right Aaron Jones Aaron Jones at the New York Giants by the way wherever you place him this is well after consensus he's running back 19 in consensus so why might you differ from everyone else this is like another guy 71 and a half total yards in the pickham lobby super flat tier uh the Giants were not very good on defense last year but I'm looking at their defensive line I don't know you have Brian Burns Kavon Tibido Dexter Lawrence like to me that seems pretty damn difficult to run on this upcoming season I think that they're going to be pretty cautious with Aaron Jones they're going to keep him in a committee with Tai Chandler that makes a lot of sense to me and the Vikings are not expected to score a ton of points in this game either so he's going to be on the field enough he's going to catch some passes certainly but last season the Vikings dead last in running back usage so I'd like to see like the older guy kind of prove it first this is a Vikings team that's going to run a lot of plays Kevin okon throws a lot of passes you would think I know it's on the road but 20 and a 21 and a half points very little here like Vegas has zero respect I feel like for the Vikings at this moment um and that's kind of telling because again the Giants at best a League average unit so I don't know like let's say they underperform even that 21 and a half points uh it's gonna go on my radar that it might be on Vegas's radar that they're not giving a ton of love for the Vikings here yeah I mean at home that' be like 23 is points which is like about League average so we'll see I think that the the Giants are way worse on defense in the secondary they're going to be probably starting two rookies day two guys uh in the secondary they lost their their primary safety and free agency so I think the Vikings they are looking for excuses to pass the ball well the matchup defensive line versus secondary I think it's going to be a huge like Justin Jefferson we okay rander Stevenson at this Cincinnati Rhamondre Stevenson Bengals yeah the Patriots are projected for under 16 points you know it's like the other teams are the reason they aren't playing Drake May is so their offensive line can gel and play better offensive line is pretty important when it comes to running the dang football especially when you bring in Antonio Gibson who might be taking some passing down snaps away from rre St yeah it's I like ra Andre but they're hosting tryouts at offensive line and wide receiver I'm not expecting this to look pretty um and Lan rumo the defensive coordinator for the Bengals was not a good season last year they did not have the safeties to run the defense that coach Lou wants they did address that this off season so there's not like a lot of Superstar talent for Cincinnati but I do think they're going to be able to take advantage of some new offensive coordinators that's Alex Van Pelt this year some really inexperienced quarterbacks throughout the year as well so you can't start running backs that are projected for 15 points very often okay well on the opposite in does that Zack Moss mean you have Zach Moss ahead or behind R Andre Stevenson right after him this one's difficult for me I want to bring up a quick chart here the Bengals obviously don't like to run the ball a lot but they're such heavy favorites in this game that I do think that the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be like forced into running the ball a little bit more that'll be especially true if Jamar Chase doesn't suit up so the question becomes is it Zach Moss or is it Chase Brown did you see the depth chart well was it co- starters no Zack Moss listed as the starter okay Chase Brown listed behind him and Chase Brown also listed as the kick returner so hopefully some of the punt return energy in the direction of Kiren Williams is now fed in the direction of Chase Brown as well I opened up my wallet this entire off season and continually drafted Zach Moss ahead of Chase Brown this is kind of me like just a a no ball taken we'll see if I do uh but I thought that Zach Moss is way better between the tackles Chase Brown he's gonna win in your nextg stats miles per hour League but Zach Moss is just better between the tackles uh really wanted to note this though uh the Patriots defense has been what first second or third for the 30 years belich was there first of all you lose our cooworker bill he's not gonna be coming back you also lose Matthew judon in a trade in the in August that's an edge rusher Superstar when he's healthy he's out of there Christian barmore who's probably their best defensive player period he's a defensive tackle he has blood clots it's uncertain if he's going to be able to play this entire season yeah so the Patriots are always like they have like a lot of like versatile pieces in at linebacker and at safety and I think their Corner their their young corner is really good but I'm not sure if this is the scary Patriots defense that we've seen over the last couple years they might be more like middle of the pack okay we've already talked about Naji anything you want to add here with Jaylen Warren who Jaylen Warren & D'Andre Swift checks in as your running back 28 no this is like one where I I want to see the practice reports uh fully so to early in the week that's why we have the Sunday Morning Show okay and your running back 30 to close this tier is DeAndre Swift here's my take if you don't mind me stealing the microphone He's listed and you have him as running back 30 consensus rankings have him as running back 26 he was drafted on some of these platforms if you average them together as running back 21 in redraft manage leagues all that type of stuff if you're not going to start DeAndre Swift in a game where the Bears are projected for nearly 25 points the sixth most in the NFL this week then what was the point of drafting him you know like you have to play DeAndre Swift this week if you drafted him Point Blank period yeah I think it's a good take yes six highest of the week now like I guess the counter to that would be the Titans defensive line has some absolute freakazoids on it um third best in yards before contact last year they drafted a defensive tackle in round two they traded for the Rams linebacker at the uh at the end of training camp so it's like not like easy individual match up for deand Swift but the Bears are projected for the six most points by the way when's the last time a rookie quarterback in week one has been projected for the six most points I think a lot of it's going to be through the air um DeAndre Swift I had him as my running back 25 like Ren single Terry if you want to adjust that but it's not it's like I was never a huge fan of DeAndre Swift this but this is the week it needs to be this week like it really does I understand that some people are going to say well if it's a negative game script game he's going to get more passing down work and more receptions and more volume you want want your running backs to score touchdowns it is that simple for being projected for the six most points this week that should mean your running back scores a touchdown and if you drafted him as running back 21 like seeming many people did then you believe he's going to get the inside the 20 yard line work and he's going to get a heavy workload as this team's running back one I was on the opposite end of that equation and this was a blind spot for me on purpose maybe I'm wrong but I feel like we are going to learn a lot about it this week because if he out there owns the backfield they win and score 25 points then he's probably going to keep the same workload moving forward if he doesn't and we're already seeing Roshan get in there khil Herbert [ __ ] vus Jones do stuff then there are some questions there are some questions yeah that's for sure uh let's throw up Tier 4 because we're already 45 minutes into this thing let's throw up five at a time and you can pick one and I'll pick another how about that okay so how I have them since Hayden last posted his rankings for me to see was zamir white as running back 31 then Chase Brown running back 32 Rico dle as running back 33 Tony Pard running back 34 and Brian Robinson as running back 35 these offenses just not expected to score a lot of points except obviously with Chase Brown so let let me go with Rico dle here the Cowboys are projected for 19 and a half points this week this will be the lowest they're projected to score this season so I have REO D down here I think there's going to be weeks where he's much higher than this but I'm really looking forward to see the splits between Zeke and Rico dle uh the Browns are just the number one defense uh in the league so I know that you and I have both been pretty optimistic with Rico dle he's more of a sit this week than a start more of a long-term play but really just the Browns defense is like not one to be messing with the inverse of what DeAndre Swift The Situation he's in is kind of this Titans backfield they're projected for 20 and three quarters points we know they're going to be heavily featured in The Passing game so we're going to find out about some type of workload between Taj Spears and Tony Pard with that that is for sure I am just whole picture optimistic about Brian Robinson more so than you are but I get it this week it's on the road against the Tampa Bay Bock we will see more of a legitimate NFL offense with this passing game than we did the entire preseason with Jaden Daniels but you're also running to the teeth of Vita vea and you know just the defensive play calls that Todd bows throws out there against a rookie quarterback so uh I think that's a pretty pretty tough first assignment for this team yeah the the Bucks and I would say the same thing with the Chicago Bears for for for Tony Pard inexperienced quarterbacks against like really good defenses or just like chaotic defenses that always scares me like early in the season so Bears really good on on defense and then I think that Todd BS against uh jayen Daniels definitely scares me next five JK Dobbins Gus Edwards two teammates Taj Spears EO Elliot and then jilan mlin to close out as your running back 40 this is the Josh Norris tier do you want to yell at me your boys well I noticed that Rico dat wasn't in your top 50 but JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards were your top 40 running backs and that caught my eye a little bit so we're going to find out because we didn't get to see anything of those two guys in the preseason they are home favorites by three plus points in this game so uh maybe we get a really good JK Dobbins week I'm excited for it yeah I'm not ruling it out week one you can have the points hey week one points are pretty important too um I I didn't want to like totally mask over zamir white who's at the top here because in home leagues out there too he was being drafted around running back 22 running back 24 in this weird volume sponge range again they're facing that Chargers team their three-point Road underdogs we know that the Raiders threw a lot in the preseason that was to figure out the quarterback competition between Garner mchu and a they're going to be heavy heavy run focused team it's pretty amazing that Vegas is giving the Chargers defense this much respect I feel like early on just become because of a coaching change because many of the same pieces are kind of there from the brain and Staley era and we know how bad that was right it just comes down to like how much Jesse Minter who comes from the Michigan defense which was awesome by the way it's kind of like the future of the NFL defense is what they were doing over there how much could he fix I think a prettyy star scrubs approach on the defense over there and Joey Bosa he's already playing with a boxing glove on on his hand to open up the season so we'll see the Raiders just the third lowest team total of the week so I'm not sure if it's as much giving the Chargers a lot of credit as it's just kind of pointing out what the Raiders uh offense Tier 5 - The Handcuffs could look like this year okay next group Austin Eckler Tai Chandler Blake Corum Zack sharan and Tyler aler this is the handcuffs yeah the running back twos everything you said uh Tai Chandler is on my radar just a little bit because I really like the point you made about Aaron Jones where hey he was a big get for us in the offseason we don't want him to have a hamstring injury in week one that forced him to miss six or seven weeks so let's switch this up like 55 45 with him in Tai let's be honest if you're starting these guys in week one what the hell happened in your draft how drunk did you get we have to be better than this these guys are these guys are backups yeah I mean that that's fair we can just buzz through these then that is uh khil Herbert Antonio Gibson Alexander Madison making his first appearance on this list my guy Ray Davis and Trey Benson okay hey here's a question then to close this out of any of these names let's say from running back 21 to running back 50 all right okay after week one all the games are played we're doing the Sunday night recap with John de which you guys can tune in in the fourth quarter it'll be on your feed which one are we going to be shocked stunned at what their usage was like versus what our predictions and expectations are heading into week one well this is the tier where it's the Bengals and the Cowboys like that's the one where I'm most curious about the snaps and the touches overall there but I do think like going back to it like Devin single tier like I think that there's a chance that he plays like 85% perc of the snaps and that's going to make him like a very startable player down the stretch like those would be the top ones the Chargers guys are definitely interesting same thing with the the bang uh the Broncos there so lots of committee members there but Zach Moss versus Chase Brown has been keeping me up at night uh for a very long time could you give me one favor though just before we screenshot this and this this goes to Twitter and my mentions are absolutely ruined flip Aaron Jones and Jerome Ford for me because people would not like Aaron Jones uh behind uh somebody that was available in like round 13 so we're good there uh this looks good we'll have way more data to go off of moving forward um so the shows will get better but this was a fun this is a great show what are you talking about I loved it just making sure that we have expectations for next week we're going to get better okay well we can even try that tomorrow because tomorrow we'll have wide receiver rankings Thursday probably in the early afternoon we'll have some quarterbacks and tight end conversations as well hopefully you all tuned into the first waiver wire episode with Sam Sherman earlier this week weekly occurrence uh towards the end of Monday Night Football so make that part of your fanasy football routine to be subscribed to this Channel and most importantly make Underdog a part of your weekly routine as well you can get right now if you use promo code the show or just click the link in the description down below that Bree Hall special all he needs is one rushing yard for week one we're giving every single person a Travis caly special right now again there are vultures there are tokens there's good stuff literally every single day during your lunch break check it at noon and uh enter a pick them entry that's all you need to do all right shout out produc shout out to Hayden shout out to all of you but only the 39% who subscribe when they watch up the Villa we'll talk to you soon see you