Monday 12 PM Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Francine forms, hurricane watch issued for Louisiana c

And you know, we're talking about hurricane Laura here. We do not anticipate Francine to be a LA, but it's still likely going to be an impactful storm for parts of the state. Just much weaker storm, not a cat. Four. All right. The next three days as we get prepared for Francine, rain, chances are there today and tomorrow, but we won't have any major winds. So you'll be able to get some things done today and tomorrow. But dodging the rain and then conditions expected to go downhill as we go throughout Wednesday. I do have some rain on radar. Just a quick mention, some showers falling near the Mississippi coast and over in Slidell, couple showers in our region as well. And these are associated with some far outer bands of tropical storm Francine. Now, the center of the storm is over 480 miles away from Cameron Parish there in uh Louisiana lifting north northwest only at five miles an hour. So it's not gonna move that fast today. But tomorrow, it'll finally start to move to the north and then that's when we think it will start to strengthen. So tomorrow is gonna be the main day for strengthening of Francine. And then as it starts to make its turn towards Louisiana, we think it's gonna start to run into some wind shear and dry air. So right now we have it capped off at at least a cat one if I'm in these areas though, I'm planning for a cat two, we always say plan for a category higher and you can see the center is still right there in Marsh Island, Vermilion Bay and just near Lafayette and New New Iberia. That's where we expect the core of the storm to move inland. Now, there is still some uncertainty and we have a cone for a reason. The cone still stretches from Lake Charles to New Orleans. And the tricky part is determining where this turn happens. Does it happen faster and come closer to us? Maybe it happens a little slower, comes further this way. So these are still possibilities, but we gotta be planning for something at this point with it only two days away. Hurricane watch is in effect for parts of the area along with tropical storm watches. Now, luckily it is moving so it'll be out of here by Thursday and by Thursday afternoon to our north. Now, what's interesting is we're gonna see how this wind shear and drier impact the system as we get into today. And tomorrow, these today and tomorrow at least are the prime time for this to organize if the storm organizes rapidly intensifies. It may develop a really strong core that can battle the wind shear and dry air. That's what we don't want. Now, if the storm struggles to really get that core going, once that wind shear and dry air kick in on Wednesday, it will begin to shred this thing. And so we do think that's going to limit its strengthening ability, right, as it makes landfall. But if it's already a strong storm making landfall, then you got problems. So that's what we're going to be watching with the intensity of this thing is how quickly it can strengthen today and tomorrow and then how quickly can that wind shear and dry air do a number on this thing as it begins to make landfall Wednesday evening. Now, hurricane watches are in effect for Trebon and Lefou also lower Jefferson and lower plains, all under a hurricane watch. We have tropical storm watches everywhere else including the metro, the river parishes, the North Shore and lower parts of Hancock County. This is where we're most likely to see our stronger winds closer to the center line, which is right there. Now, our winds, this is my estimate on what I think we're gonna see across the metro and North Shore will say wind gusts averaging 30 to 50 miles an hour, 50 to 70 miles an hour closer to Houma. And then you start to see higher ranges as you get closer to where the storm core is gonna move inland. Now, that's what the current track in the current track intensity. If this storm tries to come a little bit closer, we may see higher winds in our area, but that's only if that track gets a bit closer and the storm is uh strong and at least a cat one at landfall winds much less a problem as you head off towards the east. We also have storm surge watches everywhere we have water. Basically, we're gonna see inundation in some areas. Here's the early thinking 5 to 10 ft for Terrebonne Bay up through parts of Vermilion Bay into Marsh Island. I think the worst with this current track would be closer to Saint Mary Parish with still that potential maybe 5 to 7 as you get into Terrebonne Bay. But if this track shifts a little bit, then you gotta bump these numbers up 4 to 7 ft for Barry Terrier Bay, Grand Isle and the West Bank of Plains, East Bank of Plains and Saint Bernard 2 to 4 ft, 2 to 4 ft bay, Saint Louis and 2 to 4 ft for our lakes. That's the north and south shore rainfall totals. You know, I don't think this is gonna be a massive flooding event, but we will likely see some heavy rain widespread 3 to 6 inches, but where that core comes in, Lynn, we could see some isolated totals maybe 5 to 10 inches. I don't think that's gonna be widespread, but we could see some fairly high totals, at least in isolated spots. So, rain showers today, rain showers tomorrow as you get ready for this thing, we're gonna be watching for this to move in Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. It will not linger throughout much of Thursday. I think a lot of Thursday will be better. And then luckily we get some nicer weather in here for our weekend with mid eighties and maybe some lower humidity as that storm moves away. The marine forecast, if you're getting your boat ready, watching for showers today and tomorrow, but no major winds, winds will pick up through Wednesday with the worst of it moving in by Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Your high tide, that was this morning, your low tide will happen this afternoon.