Tracking Francine, along with two other tropical systems | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Forecast

All right. Happy Monday to you on Fox 26 meteorologist remission. Shade and my goodness things have changed drastically over the last few days. Friday it looked like we were going to have a potential tropical system bubbling up in the Gulf of Mexico. But it didn't look this impressive. We now have tropical storm Francine. This becomes our sixth named storm of the season and it is rapidly intensifying. So I want to take you back through what we've had so far for this 2024 hurricane season. Of course, we started off with Alberto that became a tropical storm. Beryl became a very early category five hurricane. Of course, it was the earliest category five to develop in the Atlantic basin. And of course, it hit the Houston area back on July eighth as an 80 mile per hour category one hurricane. Then we briefly had Tropical Storm Chris, category one Hurricane Debby, category two Hurricane Ernesto, and now, as of today, we have Tropical Storm Francine. Next name on the list would be Gordon. So we have a hurricane that is likely going to be developing in the Gulf of Mexico. And we are watching things very closely. I want to show you what we have going on as far as our watches and warnings, because we have a major update with the tropical storm watches. The National Hurricane Center has decided to include now our coastal counties, our coastal communities in this tropical storm watch. They're basically saying that they're expecting Francine to become an even more powerful hurricane, likely developing to a category two hurricane now. And that means that Windfield is likely going to expand. So we likely could have some winds sustained around 20, 30, 35mph for our coastal communities, starting tomorrow into Wednesday, with gusts to 50mph. So if you are in Galveston, over towards the Baytown area, into Chambers County, you do have that risk for some of those stronger wind gusts. And you are under that tropical storm. Watch the worst of this is going to be for the Louisiana Gulf Coast. That area in red. That's where we now have hurricane warnings in place. It appears that this is going to make landfall likely around the west central portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast, likely by Wednesday, late morning into the afternoon. So we are going to be monitoring this closely. Here is the latest advisory. This is our 4 p.m. update. And as you can see this system is getting stronger. Pressure is falling and the wind speed definitely going up. We now have sustained winds at 65mph with Tropical Storm Francine with gusts that could be maybe up to 70, 75, 80mph. And it has picked up a tiny bit of speed. It was moving to the north northwest around five miles per hour, now up to seven miles per hour. So it has not made that northeasterly curve yet. We are expecting that to happen likely late tomorrow into Wednesday, and that would push it a little bit farther away from the Houston area. But it is going to get uncomfortably close to us as it brushes by. We could get some heavy flooding rain and of course, the potential for storm surge and some of those strong gusty winds. This is the official track. Let me show you where it's headed by 1 p.m. tomorrow. Likely strengthening to an 85 mile per hour category one hurricane. And then look at thi. This is the latest, likely a category two hurricane at landfall by early afternoon on Wednesday. So we are expecting this to become a category two hurricane. Right now it is forecast to be a 100 mile per hour category two hurricane as of landfall, which will likely be late morning into the early afternoon on Wednesday and notice it's making landfall to the south and east of Lake Charles, south and west of Lafayette in Louisiana. So it does not appear that Houston and Southeast Texas will get a direct hit from Francine. But we're going to be close enough to get those impacts, especially before landfall. We're talking about some of those outer rain bands moving in the wind, picking up the coastal flooding. So those are going to be some of our concerns as we go through the rest of the week, Thursday and Friday. Of course, when these systems make landfall, they lose that steam, that fuel, that that warm water gives them. So they start to weaken. However, this is still expected to be a tropical storm early Thursday at 1 a.m. and a tropical depression with 35 mile per hour winds as it heads farther north up towards Memphis. And then by this weekend, maybe getting close to Chicago. So it's going to be traveling a long distance. But our worst impacts will likely be Tuesday into Wednesday. So that is the concern for our area. Now what are we talking about as far as strength? This is the Saffir-Simpson scale. This is our hurricane wind scale. Now before this 4 p.m. advisory National Hurricane Center was only calling for this to become a category one hurricane with 85 mile per hour winds. Now they're expecting Francine to become a category two hurricane with 100 mile per hour winds. So that is a mid-range category two, and that can do quite a bit of damage. Of course, a major hurricane is considered category three, 4 or 5, and you certainly don't want that. But we saw what a category one hurricane did here with Beryl back on July 8th. So, you know, it doesn't take a category three, 4 or 5 to cause widespread wind damage and major massive flooding. So we are monitoring this closely here. Is that big change as of that last advisory that I was mentioning earlier, if you are in the Houston area, you are not in this tropical storm watch, but our coastal communities are now included in this tropical storm watch that would include Palacios Lake Jackson, Angleton, Galveston, up to League City, and even Baytown is included in this. It does include southern portions of Liberty County, Chambers County, southern portions of Galveston County, and coastal portions of Brazoria Matagorda counties as well. So this is something we're watching closely. The main reason this tropical storm watch was issued is that Francine is forecast to become an even more powerful hurricane, and that wind field will likely get shoved in our direction. But it's not going to be 80 90 mile per hour winds. Most likely the actual alert calls for 20 to 30 mile per hour sustained winds, with gusts that could be up to around 50mph. So that is going to be the main concern. So it doesn't look like Armageddon at this point. But of course, you certainly need to keep a close eye on it. Keep it here. We will update you with the latest. Here's what Francine looks like on our radar at this point. And you can kind of start to see what appears to be an eye trying to develop in that center of this tropical storm, that center of circulation getting more well-defined. Right now. It is still very close to that northeastern Mexican coast, but it is forecast to roll to the north. And then before that landfall, make that turn to the northeast as it gets picked up by a trough. All right. Here is the latest with the flood advisory. We've got that tropical storm watch for our coastal communities. We also have a coastal flood advisory down around the port Lavaca area. And that coastal flood advisory that we had around Palacios has been upgraded to a coastal flood warning now. So that includes Palacios, Angleton, Lake Jackson, League City, Galveston, all the way up just to the south of Liberty. So this basically means that we are expecting storm surge, that water will start to build right along the coast, and we could have one, two, maybe three feet of storm surge that could lead to that higher risk for coastal flooding. As far as the flash flood risk notice. Houston for Tuesday Atascocita also liberty over towards Baytown in that one out of four risk for flash flooding for tomorrow. So it's not going to be widespread street flooding. But we could have some heavy downpours from some of those outer rain bands that could produce some flash flooding for the area. Notice the highest risk for that flash flooding tomorrow. Going to be down around League City, Galveston, Santa Fe, down to Angleton, Lake Jackson. That's a two out of four slight risk. So that's the area of greater concern that we could have that water starting to pile up. And build up on the coast. And that will mean the potential for some street flooding as we go into Wednesday. Of course, Francine will be making landfall right around likely the west central portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. So there will be a major flood threat all around the Louisiana Gulf Coast. However, we will be on that western edge. So we're still going to have the risk for some of those heavy downpours. This is for Wednesday continuing in Houston, but still the highest shot for that flooding down towards Texas Cit, Galveston and up around Liberty. So that's going to be one of our biggest threats. All right. Let's talk about the alerts. We now have the hurricane warnings. The tropical storm warnings. This map shows where we do have those tropical storm watches and warnings. And notice the tropical storm watch now does include the coastal communities across southeast Texas. But we also have hurricane warnings that have been issued as well, and hurricane watches that have been issued for parts of Louisiana. So I want to take you into this graphic and show you where we do have tropical storm warnings, and we have the hurricane watches and the areas where we do have those hurricane warnings. So we now have the highest threat with this system, as we've been thinking, it's going to be that middle portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. And notice for Galveston, we're talking about storm surge potential up to about three feet. So that could cause some coastal flooding. Some of those roads, some of those streets could be inundated in and around Galveston and other coastal spots. But it starts to get worse as we go off to the east. Notice the area in yellow a higher risk for that storm surge, and we could have storm surge up to 12ft for a big portion of the Louisiana Gulf Coast. And that is where we're going to have that major, major flood threat. So those are the areas of greatest concern as far as flooding is concerned. So if you were planning to head east on I-10 over the next 24 to 48 hours, plan on major problems, probably not a great idea. Here is the wind field for Tropical Storm Francine. Right now that wind extending out from the center of circulation almost about 160 miles. So it's a fairly large system. And that wind field is going to head in our direction, and we are going to start to feel some of these impacts in fact, this is a futurecast wind gust graphic which shows that wind or the edge of those tropical storm force winds starting to move into the coastal regions, likely by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. In fact, I'll stop the clock here around 1015 Tuesday night and notice that yellow area kind of lining up right along the southeast Texas coast. That represents tropical storm force winds, 39 mile per hour winds or higher. So that is when we could start to see some of those gusts around 40, 45, possibly 50mph. Notice as we go into Wednesday morning, the tropical storm force gusts are still right around the area. And remember, these are gusts. So we're not talking about sustained wind, but we're talking about the peak wind. Those wind gusts. So we likely could have some gusts to 50mph right around Galveston, maybe up towards League City, Chambers County. But notice the area in orange that represents Hurricane force winds, category one hurricane force winds and those winds will likely miss us to the east and push over towards potentially Lake Charles. Beaumont Port Arthur and over towards La Lafayette, Louisiana as it moves off to the north and east, likely making landfall throughout the day on Wednesday. I want to show you our exclusive Fox model Futurecast showing this system definitely getting better organized. It is winding up. It's becoming stronger. It's taking advantage of that super warm water out there in the Gulf of Mexico. Water temps have been well into the 80s and they remain there. So it's very warm, very deep water and that is acting as fuel to strengthen and intensify this system. So let's go into the future even more. This is Tuesday morning, 11 a.m. notice those rain bands, the very heavy rain represented by those reds and yellows creeping right up to the coast. So expect some heavy rain up towards Lake Jackson, Galveston, possibly some of those bands pushing over parts of Houston tomorrow afternoon and evening. I think the weather really starts to deteriorate likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is Tuesday night. Notice more of that heavy rain building in 11:00 PM. We are inundated with that rain right around the Wharton area and also over towards Galveston and potentially getting very close to the city of Houston. Notice the heaviest of this rain is going to be off to our east, but even through Wednesday morning, still talking about the eastern portion of our area like Galveston up towards Chambers County, getting some super heavy rain. And there is that eye wall. There's the center of circulation around 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday. Notice it's more than 50 miles away from the coast, but it's still a little too close for comfort, so we are likely going to feel some impacts, including some coastal flooding from that heavy rain and that storm surge and some pretty gusty wind. With those wind gusts up to 50mph. But keep in mind it is going to be much worse. Off to the east over towards Lake Charles and Lafayette and areas right along the coast south of those cities. That is where the worst of this is going to be. You'll notice at 4:00 pm Wednesday that eye starting to move over land. And that is going to be very close, likely to Lafayette as it pushes inland. Of course, the wind will start to die down eventually, but it is like really going to cause some pretty big impacts to much of the Louisiana Gulf Coas. All right. How much rain are we talking about? Well, of course we've got all of this tropical moisture rolling in. It is abundant and it will continue to push in as we go through the next 24 to 48 hours. So notice that area in white. This is going to be right over the Gulf. That represents more than ten inches of rain. So that is some super heavy rain. But for our area I am expecting for the Houston area, likely around 1 to 2in of rain through Wednesday. But notice between League, City and Galveston, that's the area that could have anywhere from two to around five inches of rain from this system. So here are the things to know. You may be getting alerts on your phone saying, wow, my area is under a tropical storm watch. Oh my goodness. If you live in our coastal areas, you are now under a tropical storm watch. But there's a little bit of good news in this. We're not expecting 60, 70, 80, 90 mile per hour winds. The watch was issued because National Hurricane Center is expecting 20 to 30 mile per hour winds, mainly for our area, but those wind gusts could be up to 50mph. So that is what you need to prepare for and watch out for. So we're still talking about the potential for some spotty power outages, especially right along the coast. All right. Francine is expected now to strengthen to a category two hurricane. And it will likely hit the Louisiana Gulf Coast as a category two right now, forecast to strengthen all the way up to 100mph. Yikes. Beryl hit us at 80mph and you saw what type of damage it did right here in Houston. So 100 mile per hour hurricane with gusts maybe up to 115 120. That can do some major damage. So hopefully this will not strengthen to that. But of course that is what the forecast is calling for. But for our area flooding, especially right along the coast and those strong gusty winds are going to be possible. I think the weather starts to go downhill for Tuesday evening, Tuesday night and really Wednesday morning looks pretty messy and turbulent, especially down around the coast. So that's what you need to know about Francine. We are watching it closely, of course. Keep checking back. We're going to start doing a lot more frequent tropical updates as we go through the day on Tuesday, and especially on Wednesday, as Francine is expected to make landfall as a category two hurricane. Here's the thing. We've got Francine in the Gulf of Mexico, but we also have two other systems that are trying to do a little something as well. So I got to update you on those. We are heading out into the Atlantic. This is the Central Atlantic and this is invest 92 L with a 60% chance. Now that's a medium shot for development into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane over the next seven days. It's still way out there. We've got several days to watch it, but the atmospheric conditions are looking more favorable for that one to maybe turn into our next tropical system over the next week or so. All right. The next system that we have out here, this one is in the eastern Atlantic. And notice it is in the red because there's a high chance over the next seven days for this tropical disturbance or tropical wave to develop. We are monitoring this tropical wave, and it does look like it is going to be in an environment that will allow it to thrive and to grow. So once again, we could have two additional tropical systems that we will be talking about and dealing with over the next week. The next name on the list would be Gordon. So one of these could become Gordon. So of course we are watching this closely, but right now of course, all eyes are on Francine. Of course we are still in the month of September and we are getting very, very close to the peak of hurricane season, which is right around September 10th. And as expected, things are heating up in the Gulf. That's one of the hotspot areas for the month of September. Western Atlantic, we always look there for a higher likelihood of tropical storm formation, and we also closely watch the Central Atlantic, which usually has a higher chance for these tropical systems popping up for the month of September. I've been telling you for the last couple of weeks things have been fairly quiet. Of course, we had Ernesto to develop, and that one developed back on August 12th, I believe, and kind of fizzled out on August 20th. But now we have Francine. So it's been a while, but things are heating up and it's kind of right on time. If you look at this graphic, September 10th is typically historically the busiest part of hurricane season, and we are right there. So this is usually the time that the tropics start to act out on us. Crank things up and we could get multiple systems and that's exactly what we have going on. So we've got to get through this next month, which likely will be super busy and hopefully things will start to calm back down. But for now, we do have to deal with Tropical Storm Francine, likely soon to be Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico. So make sure that you are getting your hurricane gear. Your emergency gear ready, especially if you are right along the southeast Texas Gulf Coast, because we will have some impacts like I said, 1 to 3ft of storm surge, wind gusts that could be up to 50mph. And even farther inland, even up towards the Houston are, there will likely be some heavy downpours that could lead to a few flooded streets. Well, that will do it for your tropical update for today on Fox 26. Meteorologist remission shade stay safe out there. Keep checking back here for more updates. Like I said, we'll start to do more frequent updates as Francine nears the Texas and