Ernesto dies down in North Atlantic, so what's coming next? | Tropical Weather Forecast

All right. A good Tuesday to yo. Thanks for staying with us here on Fox 26 houston.com along with Fox Local. How are you watching right now I'm not really overly concerned, but you just making sure that, you know you got options right. You can watch on Fox Local. That's kind of my favorite way because you can put that on the big screen. You don't need to see Carolina and Rashi on the little device. You need to put that up on the wall on the 70 inch, and then you get to see me right after that as well. On the big TV. That's my favorite way. Of course, you can do it on Fox 26 houston.com. You've got your Fox 26 weather app and also the Fox 26 news app. Once again, I do have a preference. The weather app does a little better than the news app. Glad you're checking in here with the tropical update this afternoon. I'm a little bit joyous because the National Hurricane Center is done with Ernesto. It is officially no longer a tropical system. It's still a pretty powerful storm and a big system that's out there in the Atlantic. But as far as the hurricane center, not going to be so concerned with it. So I believe the 10 a.m. update was the last update that they update. They gave. It was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds at 70 miles an hour. So I would say it's a post tropical system. So not a tropical storm, but post tropical with the 70 mile an hour winds. That's where we're seeing it. And it's pulling away to the northeast, continuing to accelerate. And eventually this system is going to kind of get I don't want to say it's going to fall apart or dissipate. It's going to kind of get absorbed with some other things happening here in the northeastern Atlantic and with the much colder water, again, it's losing all of its tropical characteristics and the remnants and what's left might kind of join in and impact our friends across the pond over there in the UK. But overall, this is something, again, that we're going to be less concerned with as far as what Arnesto is doing. So National Hurricane Center done with Ernesto, then that means we can be done with Ernesto. But this is again where we kind of last made that marking for it, the readings for it, and then it's continuing to move off in a disorganized non tropical sense. So at this point we've been talking about this over the last couple of days that this area that's just to the east or. Yeah just to the east of the Caribbean, the western portions of the Atlantic. That's where we kind of look for tropical cyclone activity development. This time of the year. But it comes from a lot of times these storms that come off of the coast of Africa and things continue to become quiet, right now. And where we are seeing the activity happening, it's happening in a little bit further northern latitudes. And once that rolls off, it's not as favorable conditions as you would expect. There's also the dust that kind of gets in there. The Saharan dust. And so we just haven't been seeing a lot going on. And that's kind of what we're continuing to face at the moment. We see there is still plenty of this Saharan dust that's coming off. So we see some of the storm activities further to the south. It's not really impacting or being able to organize. And so all this kind of mixing together and that gets translated to the fact that we're not expecting any more tropical activity over the next seven days. So things certainly are expected to remain quiet overall in the tropics again, especially now that we're done with Ernesto here in the Atlantic. Now, the Pacific does have some activity happening. We're going to save that discussion for another day. I do want to sort of begin the transition a little bit more into what's happening in the Gulf Coast of Texas, because as we're looking at our futurecast, you'll notice no organized system is taking place. But generally speaking, an upper level sort of low or an upper level disturbance, along with an extra batch of moisture once we get into the weekend, is going to start moving into the Gulf of Mexico and so you'll see all of this green here representing some showers and disorganized activity. Not a tropical system, but some upper level sort of dynamics that's going to create a lot of moisture along with the possibility of some rain. And that's all going to be possibly impacting the Gulf Coast area along Texas. And that's going to be something that's needed by the time we get there, because it's been so dry for so long. But back to the tropics in general. We've got both of our major forecasts still looking for an active remainder of the season. And this is really August the 20th is where we really begin the peak of the hurricane season. And most of the activity starts off. Colorado State University, we've talked about that forecast a lot. Doctor Klotzbach is the one who is currently in charge of that program, very well respected, very well known in the tropical community. But prior to him, his, his, sort of predecessor, who he sort of shadowed and learned from was Doctor William Gray. And Doctor William Gray is really the one who pioneered the Atlantic basin outlook. Like what we see today, it's so common it's Doctor Gray who more or less invented it. Well every year of hurricane season on August, the 20th, Doctor Gray would literally ring a bell in his office to sort of signify the beginning of the real action of hurricane season. So once again, on August the 20th, we can count on Doctor Klotzbach carrying on that tradition and ringing a bell, starting the most active portions of the hurricane season. And so we're going to begin to see these numbers climbing up quite quickly, because we've got we're not even, you know, we're not near an average season. And again, we haven't had nearly the activity that we would expect to see so far that we would, would expect for the whole season. Let me put it that way. We're we're still ahead as far as the climatology goes. We're still ahead on what we would see on an average season this time of the year. We've gotten five total storms. Three of those hurricanes, and one of them has been a major hurricane. And so both of these forecasts still expecting a lot of activity in the tropics. So sort of the short report here is for the tropics is Ernesto is done. And now we're moving into another quiet period.