Watching 4 areas of disturbed weather | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Forecast

All right. Happy Friday to you. I'm Fox 26 meteorologist. Remission. Shade. It's time to track the tropics and find out what's going on. And if you have anything to worry about. If you're trying to get outside and enjoy your weekend across Houston and surrounding areas, maybe you're somewhere else and you just want to know what's happening across the Atlantic basin. Well, I'm here to tell you. So let's go ahead and get started. Of course, we started the season off pretty fast and furious. We had some fairly significant systems, the most significant being a barrel, which at one point was a category five hurricane, a monstrous, catastrophic hurricane. Of course, that did hit the Houston area in a weakened state, but still did a lot of wind damage and caused a lot of flooding over a foot of rain for parts of the Houston area. Back on July 8th. Of course, we had Debbie and Arnesto that were hurricanes as well. We had Alberto and Chris, which were tropical storms, but the last 3 to 3 and a half weeks we haven't really had much as far as name storms are concerned. Ernesto developed on August 12th, kind of fizzled out on August 20th, and since then we have not had a single named storm across the Atlantic, the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico. The next couple of names on the list would be Francine and Gordon. However, we don't have a super high chance at this point of those names being needed. The reason why it's been a little quiet in recent weeks? Well, it's a combination of things we've had really too much easterly wind shear in the eastern Atlantic. That kind of helps to weaken these systems. So the atmospheric conditions, not the most favorable. Also, we've had some late season Saharan dust. We expect a lot of thick Saharan dust during the earlier part of hurricane season. But of course September is generally the peak of hurricane season. And we still have some of that Saharan dust hanging out and kind of rolling off of that Western African coast. So that's been kind of hindering tropical storm formation. Also, these disturbances coming off of Africa have been tracking a bit more to the north, tapping into more kind of helps to keep them at a weakened state. Finally, the warmer temperatures in the upper atmosphere have kind of been keeping things a little more stable. So that has been kind of hindering tropical cyclone formation. So here's what we have out there for the moment. We do have the potential for some tropical development. We've got four systems that we're monitoring, but two of them are down to a 0% shot for development. The first system, the one that's been hanging out just off shore of the Houston area and the Galveston area, that one now down to a 0% chance for tropical cyclone Development System number two, which is pushing over the Yucatan Peninsula right now, projected to track into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This weekend into early next week. That one is up to a 40% shot for development. That's a medium chance. But still not looking like it's going to blow up into a big time tropical storm or hurricane. Invest number three. That's the one out here still in the east central Atlantic. That one is projected to push west closer to the Lesser Antilles over the next seven days. But that one now down to a 10% chance that it could turn into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane and finally, that system that we've been monitoring, that's been a couple hundred miles away from the Carolina coast, continues to push away from the U.S, and it is a fairly impressive system with some stronger wind. But it is not a tropical system, and it does not appear that it will have time to gain those tropical or subtropical characteristics before it pushes into that cooler water this weekend. So now, in this number four, down to a 0% shot for development as we go into the next few days and the next seven days. So here's a look at that system, that weak area of low pressure just off of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. It has been fairly disorganized, but whether it develops or not, we knew it was going to continue to spread a lot of moisture to a big chunk of the Gulf Coast. So here in Houston, we've been getting in on some of those heavy downpours, especially down around the coast. It actually developed right along a weak frontal boundary that has just been hanging out in the Gulf Coast area for the last several days. So when this broad area of low pressure just sits over that super warm water of the Gulf of Mexico, there's always a low chance there could end up being a tropical system develop. But it doesn't look like that will happen this time around because that chance is now down to 0%. However, it has been kind of a dreary, cloudy, soggy week and that will continue through the rest of today. But things will get brighter for the weekend, so that flash flood risk is a little bit lower than it has been the last few days. At one out of four, slight or marginal risk for flash flooding, but we are going to have at least a slim shot for a few additional heavy downpours that could lead to a few flooded streets stretching from Houston down to League City all the way down to Galveston, Angleton and Lake Jackson. What do we have out there right now? Well our Fox ride radar showing still that spotty rainfall rolling in kind of rotating around that area of low pressure, you can see it pushing in from the northeast, tracking to the southwest. So we are still going to have to deal with some periods of rain across the Houston area. You can see some of those yellows and oranges indicating those pockets of heavier rain. This is going to be up around Cleveland Roman force getting into parts of spring over between Cypress and Katy. If you're going to be traveling along Interstate ten from Houston to Katy, off to the west, you will likely run into some heavier showers over the next hour. Houston. Just some light rainfall going on. Atascocita you're getting in on some showers and this activity likely continues off and on through this evening. Let's hop down to the coast and we've still got some spotty light to moderate rain near Angleton and Danbury, west of Lake Jackson and up towards Galveston, we've got a heavy downpour just to the north of the Galveston area, so we'll continue with this potential for these heavy downpours at least through this evening. But things are going to be changing. And it's all due to the fact that we finally have a cold front heading our way. So that front will swing through and that will allow drier air to build in right on time. Just in time for your weekend outdoor plans. Maybe you're going to go to a concert in the park. I think there's a concert series going on in The Woodlands this weekend. We've got a lot of action going on outside in Houston. We've got, of course, Galveston Beach. Just a lot of different parks have things going on. Maybe you're doing something in your own backyard. So I think the weather is going to cooperate and be sensational for all of that. That cold front will bring in much drier air. So all of these thick, pesky clouds we've been dealing with for much of the week, and all of the rounds of rain will push away out into the Gulf as that much drier air filters in. So that for us will mean pleasant temps and lower humidity. Some comfortable mornings, especially Sunday night into Monday and Monday night into Tuesday. Those temperatures likely hanging out in the 60s for the early morning hours. So I think we keep things dry for Saturday, Sunday and even into Monday. But then we're going to see that moisture start to creep back in next week, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. And yes, we'll return back to that soggy weather pattern here in the Houston area. So we'll be watching that closely. But at least the weekend is going to be nice. And also, like I said, that disturbance just off of the Houston Galveston coast will not turn into a tropical system. However, we are monitoring another disturbance that I mentioned earlier that is rolling right over the Yucatan Peninsula. This one out of all four has the highest chance to become a tropical depression or tropical storm models still keep it fairly disorganized, but that chance for development has increased to 40%. Now that is a medium chance over the next seven days. And notice the area of concern system is rolling over the Yucatan Peninsula now, but it is projected to likely develop more in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week. And notice where that development will likely occur very close to Mexico, or maybe all the way up to parts of South Texas just offshore. So we'll have to monitor that whole area. Highlighted in orange, because there is a chance now a medium 40% chance that we could have a tropical depression or maybe our next named storm. If that were to happen over the next week, the name would be Francine. But with that front pushing south this weekend into early next week, it will likely keep this system to our south. It will likely roll into Mexico or maybe southern parts of Texas, but I don't expect it to head our way at the moment. All right, as far as additional development, like I said earlier, that Saharan dust has been kind of one of the things that's been hindering big time development across the Atlantic basin. But notice over the next several days more of that dust trying to make its way off of the western African coast and spread west so that will bring in that drier air and kind of continue to hinder this tropical development. But if we're able to get some of these systems going, maybe where we don't have as much dust out there, they could quickly develop. We've still got super warm water temps out there as you can see, temperatures close to 90 for much of the Gulf. Temps in the low to middle 80s for parts of the western Atlantic, and even down into the Caribbean Sea. It is still on the toasty side as far as those sea surface temps are concerned. So right now it does not appear that we're under any type of big threat from a tropical storm or hurricane. For the Houston area, however, we are getting very close to the peak of hurricane season, which is September 10th, less than a week away. So of course, this time of the year, you always need to make sure you are prepared. And of course, when things are quiet, that's the best time to review your preparedness or your plan of action. In case we were to have a hurricane head our way, make sure you know your evacuation routes. Make sure you have your insurance papers ready to go. Make sure you have your hurricane gear, your supplies that you might need in case a hurricane would head our way. Good news though, nothing imminent, threatening our area right now. However, we've still got the rest of September, October, and all of November to get through before we can give you the all clear. So just make sure you keep an eye on it. Of course, we'll continue to do these updates daily as long as we are in the hurricane season, which does not end until November 30th. Hey, this year is flying by. Hurricane season will be over before you know it, but until it ends, make sure that you keep a close eye on things and keep checking back here. Of course, you can check us out on our Fox 26 weather app, Fox Local. You can watch our newscast on Fox 26. Houston. Plenty of ways to get your alerts and to get your updates, but make sure you check out one of those and enjoy the weekend. It is definitely going to be a beautiful one across the H