Invest 91L given 70% chance of developing in Gulf of Mexico | Tropical Weather Forecast

Saturday to you. Thanks for checking us out here on YouTube and Fox26houston.com. I'm meteorologist John Dawson. This is our tropical update that we do every single day. So we'll call it a daily tropical briefing. And we're glad you're here, especially if you're along the Gulf Coast of the United States. We've got a lot to talk about for you folks. I know we've got an international audience and a lot of times we like to spend the time talking about what's happening out in the Atlantic and how it might impact the Caribbean at this point in time. With the hurricane center is watching out there doesn't look like it wants to go to the Caribbean. It looks like, for the most part, it wants to stay out in the Atlantic. We've got a 40% chance in this orange shading here of possible development. But what we're really focused on is the red shading, right? That's the thing where we really want to get our attention when we show the big red blob, this is where we will probably have a tropical storm coming up this week. I've started to feel a little bit more confident from everything that I'm seeing today here on Saturday, that I agree with the Hurricane center for sure, at least a 70% chance. And at this point, I really do think we're not going to have just a tropical depression, but I think it's also going to be a tropical storm. And indications are that it could even become a weak hurricane. That part I don't have the confidence in to really start really forecasting what how strong those winds end up being. But what I do know is this is going to be a major rain maker for the Gulf Coast, and we're going to be able to unfold this now and kind of look at some of the details. This is invest 91 L is what it's labeled by the National Hurricane Center. If you'll remember, for those of us in the Houston area for the last week or so, we've been watching invest 90 L. That's this area of disturbed weather right now. Got pushed off of the coast a little bit further. But for the last week, this area of weather has been sort of meandering along the coast here and providing all that rain for the Houston area. Well, in more than just Houston, but for Louisiana and Southeast Texas in general, this is no longer a focus for the National Hurricane Center. Although this area, this upper level low, this low pressure system is going to continue to sort of travel down to the south and more or less kind of get together with that tropical wave that's also been tracked for quite a while on the National Hurricane Center. I don't think we have to get too focused on exactly how each of these parts kind of come together and who's who. As far as these areas, the bottom line is there will be sort of a combining of these two, and that will eventually become a tropical storm or a tropical depression, or maybe even some other type of tropical cyclone, a hurricane. We'll see how that all goes. But I do think that we'll continue to watch this at least become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in the middle of the week. So here is where invest 91 L is at the moment. Again, we've been following this for a while. It tracked across the Yucatan Peninsula for a couple more days. It's really going to hang out down here in the southern portions of the Gulf. So if you're in the Houston area or anywhere near i, fantastic weather for the weekend continues. It even carries over into Monday as well with some beautiful weather. But this will eventually start tracking to the north. It kind of combines with that other trough that Gulf moisture and then eventually the environment becomes more favorable for tropical development. And we'll end up with a tropical system, it looks like. So let's kind of talk about a couple of our computer models in general, the GFS, which is the American mode. This modeling wants to make our 91 L become a more stronger system. This is the model that sort of favors that hurricane development. And what will happen though is if it becomes a stronger system, it'll have more likelihood to kind of get a little bit more focused on the state of Louisiana and a little less focused on the state of Texas. So that's what's going to happen here in this model. As we kind of roll through. We talked about that Gulf moisture that we've been having, kind of falling apart as far as the organization we get into Monday, we're still watching this area. This part of the problem is this is going to skim right along the coast. Two things are going to happen when that when that takes place. Number one, just the interaction with land makes it more difficult to predict what will end up happening. But in addition to that, as it skims along the coast, that dry air that came in behind that front over the weekend is going to start messing with all that tropical moisture again, also making it very difficult to sort of what the expectations are going to be. So that's something to keep in mind. But again, watch what happens here. We're going to keep this system enough in the Gulf that it is going to stay tropical. By the time we get to Wednesday, I think we've got us a tropical cyclone of some kind. And then as we get into Thursday, it will continue to head up and towards the Gulf of Mexico. I'm sorry, up and towards Louisiana with our European model. This keeps the same scenario, but it keeps everything just a little bit weaker overall. So it keeps it out of the water a little bit. And just a weaker system. By the time we get to Wednesday, we're really sort of able to put in all that moisture. This is less likely to be heading over towards Louisiana and it stays more over in the eastern side of, of the Gulf. So eastern side of Texas. So here's what we're concerned with. No matter what happens as far as depression, as a storm or a hurricane, this is going to be a rainmaker. And if it does end up being a hurricane, then winds will also be a problem. But look how this really is focusing out. This is the European model where things are a little bit weaker. Again here in the Houston area. We're looking at probably in that eight inch range of rain, maybe closer to ten when we start getting over into the Louisiana area. It's definitely getting up around that ten inch range mark. So a lot of rain just by the time we get to Thursday at noon. So that's going to be the main focus that we're talking about as as this is unfolding, I do think we're going to get to use the next name on the list with this, which is Francine Weather. Francine stays a tropical storm or whether it becomes a hurricane. That's not real clear at this point, but it does look like that southeast Texas into Louisiana. Those are going to be the main impact areas for sure. Counting on quite a bit of rain and possibly those hurricane force winds. At this point. It would be favored to be more over into Mexico, where we would see that happen. So there's still a lot to let sort of happen and unfold when those tropical systems wander around and take a slow progress to really develop, which is what's happening with the area of invest in the Bay of Campeche right now. It just takes a while for our computer models to continue to get Ahold of that and work that in. And with that dry air, with that interaction with land. Those are very difficult to pinpoint out how that outcome will happen when those type of scenarios are in play. And that's for sure going to be the case. So the most important thing is that you check back again tomorrow for the latest update and begin to plan a little bit. I know a lot of you in Louisiana are watching on Fox Local, our app for your smart TV. We're glad you're checking in with us. We'll continue to keep you updated if you're in the Houston area again, you're watching Fox 26 or you're also on Fox Local. We'll keep tuned in. We'll see how this unfolds. It does look like we'll have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. And where it ends up going, how strong it ends up being. That's where we don't have the confidence. And we'll want to make sure by Monday that you're prepared, though, for whatever might happen with this system.