NCAAF Week 0: Season Kicks Off in Ireland | College Football Predictions, Free Picks & Best Bets

NCAA Football Predictions he [Music] [Music] welcome it is the BET us college football show and ladies and gentlemen it is finally finally week zero that's right college football will be on your TVs this weekend and we could not be more ready for it I am your host Gary seagar and of course you can get me on all of the different socials at Gary WCE let's go ahead and get the fellis in here on the right side of the screen of course our award-winning professional handicapper at Kyle Hunter picks on X he is Kyle Hunter Kyle how you feeling are you ready for some football I'm absolutely ready I'm not going to pretend these are the best games but we have college football games to talk about and that's always a good thing and it goes all day they set it up perfectly right it's it starts at 11:00 a.m. Central and then of course goes way past midnight uh I'm excited I'm excited on the left side of the screen of course our stats analyst the numerical Guru as I call him at stats of War on X he is Parker Fleming Parker I know you got the numbers machine going how are you feeling I'm feeling great man it's uh it's always fun this time of year to see uh all the work in the offseason and everything kind of get to all right now we're playing now we're playing games so should be a lot of fun some interesting angles and always fun to talk ball with you guys yeah we've got all of our numbers ready we've got all of our projections and then they will all get smashed on Saturday and we can go back to the drawing board and figure out what we got wrong right I think that's the way this thing works Kyle do me a favor can you tell the viewers what we need from them today yeah hit that Thumbs Up Button below that sure helps us out a lot subscribe to the channel if you haven't already uh we've seen that subscriber count going up we want to see that keep happening jump in the chat join in and uh hit the notifications spell too so you know when we go live most certainly of course keep an eye on the latest odds over at bv.com ODS and you can join in on the action at bv.com jooin also make sure to get your questions in the chat for Q&A as of course KY mentioned we're going to answer those at the end of the show you can ask about anything you you can ask about Week 1 games if you want to although we will be here next Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern time and then we'll be here every Tuesday and Wednesday from then on all the way through I mean this will be the longest that the college football season has ever gone thanks to the 12 team playoff but uh as you should know by now subscribe to the podcast the BET us football show the NFL show is coming back all those guys are having a good time hang I got to hang out with them a little while in Vegas uh Fez of course Las Vegas Chris Jared they do a fantastic job on the NFL show but the BET us football show on your podcast feed is both of our shows put together in one nice little feed you can get all of your football content right there and you can help us out by leaving a nice festar review on whatever app it is that you're using spotify Apple whatever I think on Spotify now I don't know if you guys knew this you can actually leave comments on episodes so we're going to see how that works uh if anybody wants to leave comments over there you can do that as well um also you may see some names in the chat that are highlighted in green I see Fox over there right now already Fox m uh you you might see some weird emojis on that as well you can become a member on YouTube I think it's 99 Cents or something like that your questions in the chat will jump to the top of the line in Q&A you'll get to use those fun emojis Etc so if you want to be a member you can do that all right gentlemen we got four games on the docket today let's Florida State vs Georgia Tech Game Picks go ahead and dive into it we'll jump into game number one here and look ESPN's college game day is going to take the crew across the pond they're going to Dublin Ireland where they're going to get to see an ACC conference matchup now Mike norvell's new Florida state simol are going to battle against the rambling wreck of Georgia Tech 12:00 p.m. eastern time on ESPN Florida State right now is a 10 and a half Point favorite at bet US money line minus 450 the total sits at 55 now the implied score there would be Florida State 32.75 to Georgia Tech 22.25 just so that you've got an idea right off the bat all right first off we we've started doing this I really like doing this who has got the best helmet here Parker first and then Kyle go ahead and tell me what you got Parker I think I got to go with the simol I just like the aesthetic and the uh the garnet and gold is really hard to beat Georgia Tech does have a little bit of that classic uh Mojo but I think I like Florida State better I think so too Kyle what you got yeah I got to make it a sweep here at Florida State I'm I'm going the same Florida State here I I like the I like the arrowhead on the so I'm I'm a fan of that all right Trends Georgia Tech 8 and one against the spread against Florida State in their last nine meetings that dates all the way back to 2002 so this is not a super common matchup but the last meeting that they had two years ago that was a 41-6 Florida State win and cover uh the nolles are only four and six against the spread as a double digigit favorite in their last 10 in that role Georgia Tech on the other hand seven and three against the spread in their last 10 as a double-digit dog that includes four outright wins Brent key knows how to coach in this position so trends of course certainly lean Georgia Tech here Kyle I want to start with you on this Mark no's offense he had some issues right with the defensive coordinator Tyler sanui and Duke last season uh what are you expecting in Dublin so uh dju takes over I think a downgrade from Jordan Travis but how much of a downgrade uh remains to be seen I think Hayes King played really well um he did really good in falkner's offense we've talked about this before I think Falkner is a really good offensive coordinator fantastic uh one caveat for Hayes King he still turns it over too much he's got to reain that in a little bit um he had an 86.4 PFF grade when kept clean and a 44.1 PFF grade when Under Pressure last year so massive difference um I see the biggest difference in this game though being in the trenches especially on the defensive line um Florida State I know they lost a lot from the defensive line but I'm confident they're still very good on the defensive line Georgia Tech the offensive Line's pretty good the defensive line is not um I think that Florida state will run the ball well on them here I think royell Williams has a big game uh some props on him would probably make some sense in a game like this um to me Georgia Tech the offensive scheme will get them some points uh I think that Florida State's defense will be very good in general and also I have to say I think Norvell has done a tremendous job on the offensive line for Florida State remember when he first got there that was a major problem for Florida State they've gotten much better um I think if I were forced to play I would lean Florida State here in this game but I do want to say I have a weather report here on this game and I think this one's pretty interesting because the weather in Ireland can change pretty quickly but right now it looks like the the remnants of arnesto will roll through here on Thursday lot of rain then for now it looks like dry weather during the game 17 mph winds gusts of 35 milph which is kind of interesting and you you guys know wind is the most important so you definitely want to know when it's windy uh all the seats in this Stadium are covered and protected from the rain but the field itself isn't uh I would assume that means uh the wind affects this Stadium a little bit less than some other places but I don't want to pretend I'm like an Aviva Stadium expert or something so um under probably makes some sense based on the weather here with the wind gusts um having said that like I said I don't know enough about this to feel really strongly about it and I think georia techs an over team so not anxious to bet an under um I think the weather could matter here though so pay attention most certainly yeah I think the style of play that they're going to see probably lends itself to an under as well uh but like like you said I'm I'm not too interested in uh in betting unders in Georgia Tech games Parker let's go to you what are your numers say on this yeah well I think there's a couple things that stand out uh kind of on on on both sides here obviously Hayes King has you know played really really well but uh a lot of that has been scrambles and designed runs I think Florida State's defensive structure is going to uh you know be a little bit more consistent um in in kind of wrangling Hayes King and making him beat you through traditional ways I think Florida State wants this to be a very clean game on both sides of the ball the more chaos is certainly going to um uh help out Georgia Tech Georgia Tech last year their offense was you know in the top 30s uh in terms of uh efficiency 25th in the pass 25th in the rush in terms of EPA a lot of that is driven by some scrambles on on dropbacks as well but their defense was 104th I think that's the biggest issue there that I'm going to look at it and start to talk myself at a Florida state is Florida State's losing a lot of skill they absolutely are their offensive line should be much healthier and much more consistent but you're going to you know lose your top two receivers your tight end and your running back not to mention bringing in a new quarterback here uh we've known with dju that the biggest issue is playing out of structure and so I think that this is uh you know the offensive line having the continuity having um dju needing to build a repertoire with his new skill positions and figure out who the dudes are going to be gives them the opportunity to play simpler and exploit their talent Advantage a little bit more I think that's going to be better for Florida State they're going to ask less of dju and they can play consistent I could see Florida State pulling away in the fourth quarter just on depth alone here uh and so I you know I've seen this number move quite a bit all over the place I actually like the seals here to get in control early and maintain a lead as Georgia Tech throws their best shot of them but but plays pretty inconsistently especially on the defensive side of the ball with all the turnover they have from a defense that was pretty poor last year as well yeah that I'm with you I'm with you on this look I saw a tweet from somebody that was involved with another sports book said all the sharp money is currently on Georgia Tech and obviously that sends up Flags when you see something like that come out publicly my number on this is Florida State by Just a Touch over 14 like I am absolutely convinced when looking at Florida State's offensive line I mean they average 6'5 and over 300 lb going up against Georgia Tech's defensive line we we saw that defensive line right and yeah they they tried to work on stopping the run a little more with sanui coming in ETC and and yeah they've got the defensive tackle Zeke Biggers um 330 lbs I mean he's a huge guy right in the middle of that line but I convinced that Florida state is going to be able to run the ball on Georgia Tech's defense almost it will I mean Georgia Tech gave up 5.6 yards per carry last year and yes while they reshaped the defense to be better against the run you got dju you got Roy Williams you got that stable of backs at your disposal I believe that Mike norell and the simol are going to be able to move the ball on the ground norell always fits his offense to his Personnel he's fantastic that he did it at Memphis he's doing it here it's it's the same thing so I'm I'm going to go against the steam here uh and I'm going to buy back on Florida State uh I think they're going to cover the 10 and a half so we'll go ahead and lock that one in for myself and for Parker we both like Florida State minus the 10 and a half here I think there are some t out out there so you know later on in the week it might get down to 10 we'll see uh but yeah even 10 and a half I feel good about it I think they're going to win the game by two touchdowns so we'll move ahead we're going to game number two here oh yeah we we got some Montana State vs New Mexico Game Picks teams that we don't get to talk about a whole lot moves us over to Albuquerque the FCS preseason number four ranked team the Montana State Bobcats they visit new coach Bronco mindenhall and of course the New Mexico Lobos uh they are expected to be one of the worst teams in the FBS this season this one's 4 P.M Eastern Time on FS1 and uh it looks like the odds are Montana State minus 11 on the road a an FCS Road favorite of more than 10 points that is pretty remarkable money line minus 455 on the Bobcats total is 54 currently at bet us and uh and look that's an implied score of what 3 33 to 22 somewhere around there 30 32 and A2 to 22 and a half something like that uh if you think it's weird that Montana state is a favorite as s team over an FBS team you can look back at last year the Bobcats finished number 67 in the Sagarin ratings last year New Mexico finished number 144 so Montana state is expected to be better this year than they were last year New Mexico is expected to be a little worse this season than they were so hint the number there all right helmet time which one looks the best here both gray silverish you know just different logos uh Kyle we'll start with you which one do you like here I'm gonna go with New Mexico but I kind of like both of them Parker I feel like I know which direction you're going here but uh but tell me what you're thinking as a as a proud degree holder from the University of Montana uh and someone who has his head squared uh screwed firmly on his shoulders I I I detest everything about the Montana State Bobcat's aesthetic and so of course I have to go with the Lobos here I will also I will make it the sweep I'm going with New Mexico I'm a sucker for a lobo right do y'all remember the comic book character Lobo like that was popular back in the 90s it was like some Bounty Hunter alien I think it was a DC Comic I I don't know what happened to that guy but I that's what the helmet should be but I do like the uh the wolf design here that's I feel like that should be the helmet design was the old Lobo uh comic book figure anyway all right Trends let's talk about Trends New Mexico was 5 and three against the spread with three outright wins as a dog in their last eight in 2023 of course they have changed coaches got a basically a new team here um so we'll see what those Trends mean Montana state they're coming off uh an 8 and four FCS playoff season which was really viewed as a disappointment for this bunch I only found nine lined games for the Bobcats they were five and four against the spread as a favorite that includes two outright losses as a singled digit Road favorite now New Mexico 6-0 straight up against FCS teams but they are only two and four against the spread in those games so just so you know what we're looking at here uh the last time the Bobcats played a Mountain West team was 2021 uh they played at Wyoming they lost that one 19 to 16 on a Wyoming touchdown with less than a minute left but to be fair Brent vgan he was uh Craig Bowl's offensive coordinator at Wyoming until he took that job at Montana State back in 2021 Parker I want to start with you obviously it is it's difficult to compare FCS teams to FBS teams but I I feel like you're pretty familiar with the Bobcats so tell me how you're breaking this one down yeah the biggest one here so obviously I don't have any play-by-play data on FCS so so I'm going more traditional stats here and more box score stats to kind of learn what we can learn first off is the depth chart we're looking at four St ERS on the offensive line for Montana State uh turning over a couple of those are transfers a couple of those are experienced guys but um Montana state did run on about 62% of their plays last year not accounting for situation so very run dominant team they don't want to pass unless they have to and that's one thing that you know if you're New Mexico if you could get something early and get Montana State into a position where they have to pass that's going to be your key to kind of keeping this close I do think that uh New Mexico's run defense 105th in EPA per Rush last year even teams passed against them slightly more than average um is really really really tough to to face this Montana State front obviously the defensive line is going to have a big task with this offense where they're going to have you know quarterback run in addition to um in addition to just your standard run package they do a lot of really fun stuff there a lot of skill Talent returning for the Montana State offense uh as well so should be able to run their game um this number did get pretty big here I do think that Montana state is very clearly the better team and I think I think I was in on this at you know earlier you could get at 7 and a half 8 and a half before it kind of got super big here the only issue that that I have with taking Montana state is um pace and just how much they run the ball uh and how much they're going to try to minimize variance here because they are the favorite and that that's going to keep the clock rolling a whole lot and uh and really shorten the game I don't know if they can get to that big of a uh that that big of a lead and maintain now they're up here at you know 10 and a half 11 points as the line New Mexico you know love Bronco think that there's some intangible stickiness about the quality of their team and how they can win games that they necessarily shouldn't but that roster is pretty far from competitive right now and and they've got a rebuild in front of them so I think this is a good opportunity if this game was for instance in November um I'd be much more interested in New Mexico being able to say hey we we have our guys we're in FBS program we've got a coach that's been around the block but with all the turnover and with how good Montana State looked last year um it's it's Montana State or nothing for me yeah I can I can understand that this line opened 4 and a half and it's out to 11 now I mean the four and a halfs were not around for very long I mean they got hit immediately uh Kyle you're you're not an FCS better but you know we're low on options this week this seems like a fun game right in the middle of the afternoon what uh what do you think about this one yeah I mean I I I think it's fair to say that I don't know a lot about Montana State I did look into them quite a bit here this week about Mexico I mean I know they're not good I know that much uh that's probably the most important part right right um I think Montana State's uh you know consistently really good team in FCS they have a really good quarterback in mot I believe that's how you pronounce his name 3200 passing yards 2700 rushing yards a guy uh very good he has been a little bit injury-prone they used to have Shawn Chambers uh who used to be at Wyoming they kind of mixed them up um I think Montana state did lose a decent amount in the portal um guys that went to even bigger places um some people think that Montana States like at least uh flat no better than uh what they were last year I I think on the other side Bronco menen Hall was a really good hire for New Mexico and frankly I'm a bit surprised he took the job uh a tough gig certainly I think menen Hall is a really good coach so long term I think things will get better damp Pier looked good in limited time for New Mexico last year they did lose a key running back can they get any kind of a running game going from the back field uh I mean that they're going to need it uh defensively New Mexico's line backers are just terrible very weak they got a USC transfer on the defensive line that they're hoping will help quite a bit they did give up 5.1 yards per carry last year it is extremely rare to see an FCS team laying this kind of number and the number just getting steamed upward like you know people just think it's a free money um I wouldn't menen Hall be telling his kids at this point like you guys are double digigit underdogs against an FCS team uh you like they just don't think you can do it they think you have no chance um I think it's this number I would probably lean to Mexico if anything uh the people who took the early number on Montana State it makes a lot of sense to me but uh this is a tough one I I correct me if I'm wrong but I think this is the most an FCS team has ever been laying against a division one team yeah that is correct it is the highest number ever for an FCS team to be favored it's it's remarkable uh you brought up dampier you know Devon dampier the starting quarterback for New Mexico as you mentioned he he did show some promise last year uh but he is insanely inexperienced you know compared to the Bobcats quarterback Tommy melet uh touchdown Tommy as you're seeing in the chat here PFF graded him the number four quarterback in FCS uh he's been the Bobcat starter since the 2021 playoffs I mean Montana state was number two in FCS in scoring offense and in rushing yards per game last year and they returned their quarterback they got five offensive lineman back with starting experience uh they got their top full running backs back they got their top wide receiver back you know New Mexico's defense does have six starters back it's expected to be their stronger unit especially with men Hall as the coach but I mean they better bring their lunch pales for this one the numbers way too rich for me I think Montana state is likely the correct side uh at least as far as winning the game I mean at this number I would certainly lean New Mexico but I mean who really wants to bet New Mexico I I'm staying away from it so so no official plays for us on this one but uh but who that's a lot of points that's a whole lot of points all right quick reminder uh if you enjoy the show help us out like the video of course tell your friends about it and uh subscribe if you have not already done that uh you can hit that notification Bell down there and it's going to let you know when we go live we'll be here every Tuesday and Wednesday 1: p.m. eastern time throughout the season and it's going to be a long season all right don't forget to keep up with the odds we're talking about you can go to bv.com ODS on uh on your other screen while uh while you're watching the show here and if you're in the chat if you got a question literally anything you want to talk about toss it in the CH we're going to try and hit a bunch of those uh during Q&A at the end of the show all SMU vs Nevada Game Picks right onward we go let's move to game number three here and Saturday night we head to Reno that's right we're not going to get married nothing like that nope uh the Nevada Wolf Pack and their new Coach Jeff Cho welcome in new ACC member SMU at 8:00 P.M eastern time on the CBS Sports Network SMU a 25. favorite on the road money line minus 21100 and uh my goodness the total 56 at bet us uh this means an implied score of what 40 and a half to 15 and a half I believe is right um fellas we we got some helmets here that we have not discussed so far this season Parker is it safe to assume that you are willing to take any other helmet than SMU no again as a as a degree holder from SMU I certainly have some respect for the institution uh generally but I am going to take Nevada here just because I feel like early 2010's Nevada football was such a vibe that that I I still have some Nostalgia there and I just like clean colors of of the blue and the white SMU does the Dallas alternate they've got some fun stuff going on but I like I like Nevada Simplicity a little bit more Kyle what' you got I have to take SMU I really like the pony uh I think uh that's the better helmet here that does make sense those I'm going to do the same thing SMU Pony helmet I like that one nice and clean you know is what it is uh Trends SMU 4 in one against the spread as a three touchdown or more favorite last year here uh that's a big number to cover and they did it routinely only one of those was on the road though and that was a 55 to nothing win at Temple so is Nevada as bad as Temple was last year without AJ Warner maybe uh Nevada's been a double- digit home dog only nine times since 2016 they are three and six against the spread in that role that includes one and three as a dog of three touchdowns or more Kyle let's let's let you start us off here tell me about Nevada and SMU SMU I I think an ultra talented team that's taking a big step up in class this year in the ACC we won't really find out about them from this game they've Blown Away the weak opponents several years in a row now uh here's another very weak opponent also they have no look ahead spot here because Houston Christians their next game so uh you know you can't say well they'll probably set it out later in the game because they're looking forward to next week I see SMU is a pretty deep team a great backfield with uh really good Runners good pass catchers and they're wide receivers are excellent probably the best in the ACC really good um the SMU linebackers I think are very good too Wilson and Walker really good leaders smu's weakest units the secondary but is Nevada really going to test that secondary I don't think so um Nevada made a good hire what's their identity on offense I guess uh chuba p is still hurt Lewis is still their their quarterback Lewis has not been good you know it's hard for me to assume that he's going to be playing really good because we've not seen that out of him ever before um Davis maler was argu arguably going to be the best defender for Nevada and then he got arrested uh luk retired from football uh medical reasons they were already really short on Talent on defense I think SMU is going to score a lot of points in this game and I was looking quite a bit uh before the show to see if I could see a uh 40 and a half or 41 uh I see 41 and a halfs for SMU team total a definitely lean SMU team total over here on this one and also uh it'll come out closer to the start of the game but I think SMU first half team total is something that I would like in this game taking an over I think SMU can score pretty quickly in a game like this Nevada may try to uh run the ball and uh use the clock but I don't think it'll work smu's defense is pretty good at stopping the Run uh I don't think Nevada can have much success the other thing that that I think makes sense here is if you think SMU wins fairly comfortably um a Nevada team total under also makes some sense and that that would makes sense uh let's see the implied score I had what 14 half to 15 A2 I mean if you could get under 142 for Nevada that's that's not terrible that's not terrible Parker look SMU is intriguing right they uh they should be able to run some pretty vanilla stuff and and still get a big win here uh tell me what you're hoping for in Reno yeah I think it's it's really important to remember um and I've said this before you know SMU last year was not your kind of typical Chad Morris Sunny Dykes SMU team they really were defensive uh heavy they were s 32nd in EPA per play on on defense only 65th on offense and some of that was drugged down by some rushing efficiency that I think they would really like to see improve with that offensive line uh and returning four out of five starters there they were 100 first in in rushing EPA per play that that certainly should take a step forward they were very balanced overall 54th and Rush rate overe expected so again Far Cry from the kind of pass happppy air Rady team I think they want to get to some more of that with Preston Stone back and healthy uh and being able to spread it out to of these interesting wide receivers they've got uh Jake Bailey back kind of in the slot Jordan Hudson former five-star former TCU guy has transferred over uh should really be ascending as kind of their number one and then tight end RJ Maryland is back as well so uh really really nice options on offense there one thing that makes me look into this game you know obviously I'm never going to be the guy to say hey I want to bet you know minus 25 or or something huge like this but one one thing that really makes me uh interested is seeing that in addition to Preston Stone playing it does look like the backup Jennings is going to get um Kevin Jennings is going to get some reps there you know the red shirt sophomore they're keeping him around getting him some experience so I think we could be in the situation where SMU in a blowout game plays two full competitive hals of football not because they're trying to step on Nevada's neck necessarily but because they're trying to get reps here knowing that quarterback dep's going to be really important as they play a more physical schedule than they've ever faced before and have a harder grind this season moving up levels so with both of those there I actually like an over in this game I think SMU could get there by themselves but if Nevada can run the ball that was a that was a little bit of weakness of SMU uh on on defense relatively last year they 28th against the pass uh 71st uh against the rush on defense so uh some opportunities for Nevada to maybe move the ball a little bit maybe score a couple but with SMU playing two full halves of football I mean they could drop 60 very easily here and we know that SMU and every opportunity they have wants to remind people that they are a P4 team now what better opportunity than to beat a G5 team like they are a G5 team so I like uh I like the over um in this game yeah over 56 so we can we can go and lock that one in um my so I've got a little bit of a different mindset on this my number on this is SMU minus 18 now I don't I don't think I feel great about that number but I also didn't feel good about SMU when this thing got up to 28 28 and a half at some spots earlier this week right uh some influencers gave out Nevada yesterday when it got up to 27 27 and A2 so it shot back down really quick and uh and now it's just kind of bouncing around in No Man's Land uh and I don't really know what to do with this number right so uh SMU running back Kamar weaton is out for the year it was announced on Tuesday uh they still got jayen knon who was going to start anyway so they're they're going to be able to run the ball uh not to mention like this is what I was talking about Parker SMU plays Nevada this week right and then Houston Christian next week and then BYU in week two on a Friday night and then they've got a buy and then they've got TCU and Florida State coming to town so why on Earth would they put anything on film these first few weeks like I don't think they will but they they may not have to put anything on fil they they could just run a vanilla offense with both quarterbacks and might be able to to handle this number and the over by themselves against a team like Nevada against a team like Houston Christian next week right I think they're just going to try and get some reps in for these guys uh we saw how important it was last year for Jennings uh to get some reps uh because obviously he's the one that was the quarterback for when they win the the conference title at D Lane so I I like Nevada at the big number I'm staying off of it now I don't feel good about it uh but we're going to lock in Parker's total over 56 on this one and I I see it I see it there's some uh there's some wins here but I do feel good about it so let's move on game number four last one for the day and then we're going to jump into Q&A here Delaware State vs Hawaii Game Picks uh game four Delaware State and Hawaii I mean it's our first chasing game of the season late night on the island you got Timmy Chang and the Hawaii Warriors they're going to welcome in the Delaware State hornets and they're from the FCS ranks this one kicks off at midnight Eastern Time on Spectrum pay-per-view and if you want to watch it I believe that you can watch it on team1sports.com if I'm not mistaken so uh Saturday night gets close to midnight Eastern you might want to dive over to that website and check that one out uh this is another one that's had just insane movement Hawaii opened as a 27o favored the market consensus has got it actually no bet us has got it up 39 and a half right now with a total of 57 A2 that's an applied score of do my math here 48 to n and a half is that right or maybe 10 it's a lot to a little we'll say that uh interesting helmet game here though Kyle we'll start with you Hawaii or Delaware State here oh man these are both really sweet helmets um I'm going to take Hawaii I've always really liked the Hawaii helmet but that Hornet is pretty cool too yeah it's pretty nice Parker what what you got on this one yeah I like the little murder Hornet guy but I'm going to go with the Warriors I'm going to I'm going to stay true to uh to the the classic green and black and white do you remember the murder Hornets like during the the pandemic season what what happened to those guys like we just no longer have murder Hornets I mean that's anyway uh waiting they're lurking they're waiting waiting for the right time maybe they miss they missed their flight at JFK they couldn't make the bus and so that's where the murder horns are oh I like the the green helmets I like the H logo give me uh give me Hawaii on this one um look I only found eight lined games for Delaware State last year and they were two and six against the spread they were an underdog in every game they played two FBS teams they lost 62 to 20 at Miami of Ohio as a 40 and a half Point dog and they lost 57 to nothing at army as a 39 and a half Point dog and if you paid attention to Army and Miami those two teams had trouble scoring against air last year Hawaii has been a favorite of more than three touchdowns four times since 2015 and they're 0 and four against the spread in those games so neither team really is trending in the right direction for us to make a number on this Kyle let's let's start with you uh don't do you miss these late night Hawaii games we don't get them that often anymore like how how do you handicap a game like this I love the late night Hawaii games are fantastic now bankroll management real quick you know if you're down if you're 0 and2 0 and three you don't just try to Triple up and win it all back on this game I have to say that I feel obligated um we are not proponents of Chase we'll say that no at least not to that degree uh Delaware State an absolute bottom feeder I'm not going to pretend to know a ton about them but they lost to a division 2 team last year not FCS division 2 they lost to Army 57 nothing we know Army is not the type of team that runs up a score and they lost uh to NC Central 55 5 to 14 so I think this is kind of like a men against boys matchup uh they're traveling a really long ways they missed their uh first flight this is probably kind of a vacation for Delaware State like why would you not feel like hey we get to go to Hawaii this is fantastic um you know I think it's really tough for a spot to get worse than it is here for Delaware State how many points does Hawaii want to score that's probably the the biggest question here uh I still think Braden shager is underrated back I think his wide receivers are very good deep group the people who bet Hawaii minus 27 uh they deserve a gold star because that was fantastic if Hawaii was minus 28 or lower I would absolutely be taking Hawaii here in this game um I I think Hawaii probably wins by more than what the number is here but I don't feel great about betting you know more than 10 points worse than what we could have gotten before and so the weather here speaking of weather heavy wind here 25 miles hour with gusts of 40 miles hour uh potentially heavy rain possible during the game so everything in this one the weather report is not not a pretty one here uh love the weather report over there there's going to be lots of raining on the island um I cannot bet the under though guys uh if you guys can bet the under uh you're better than me because heavy wind might not be enough for Delaware state to stop Hawaii from scoring nearly every single time time uh I don't know that the total is high enough to take that kind of a risk I think the best play here Hawaii money line no I'm just kidding of course um this is uh maybe Delaware State team total under I mean that would just be ridiculously low I have not even looked to see what it would be but uh man that' be it'd be under 10 I know that it'd be under 10 for sure is it above seven maybe it might be worth it but I I think I'm going to pass on this game but I think Hawaii uh rolls in this one and this feels like one of those where you would bet that uh that team total and it starts pouring rain in the middle of the game and somebody fumbles and Delaware run it back and then of course we're just throwing everything against the wall at 2 a.m. and that I don't know that that's any way to live Parker exactly I don't know if there's a way to properly formulate a prediction for a matchup like this is there like what what have you got on it Parker I hope Delaware State enjoys their trip out to Hawaii even though it's already started poorly uh for them it sounds like the weather's going to be bad which means it's probably hard to get back so a little bit rough there uh things I'll be looking for is you know Hawaii's offense just want to check that they can access that gear against a team that's that's pretty bad so in the first half I want to see how many times they create a scoring opportunity they were 121st in Echo rate last season 112th in points per Echo um and so with an experienced quarterback and some some fun wide receivers although I McBride is not on the roster um with some suspension stuff as well so any information there but that you know say hey okay who's the guy then they they had got to have somebody else step up there um they were really good at success rate in uh the past but they just weren't great with um uh you know explosiveness at all and so you want to see them you know get some of those explosive passes get in structure interesting to see what they do on kickoffs they are uh you know really good in in starting field position last year uh overall but um I want to see you know are they going to are they going to kneel the ball and try to get along field that's what I would do is is just take every touch back and and and try to create drives and get in Rhythm there but really want to see a lot more opportunity creation out of out of Hawaii there um I don't like anything in this game at all I probably full disclosure will not do anything more than look at the play-by-play stats the next day of this game uh not because I don't love college football but because life is full of of choices so with Delaware you know I I assume you're going to get some jet lag and and feeling gross situations here um you know Hawaii's defense was pretty good against the rush relative to how were against the pass last year and so uh that would seem to me the the best path for Delaware state to to succeed here is to to run the ball at all but I I don't know they're going to be able to do that against ha's defense uh just want to see some some fundamental games with the weather and the travel issues it's it's hard to be on anything other than negative for for Delaware State here Hawaii coach Timmy changen admitted in multiple press conferences that they are not going to put anything on film in this game uh because they've got UCLA coming in for a Prime Time CBS game game the next week right so at the same time Delaware State might be so bad that Hawaii could cover this by playing completely vanilla just running the same play over and over and over again I mean you never know like Delaware state was number 121 out of 122 FCS play or excuse me FCS teams in yards per play allowed they gave up 7.21 yards per play last year I mean that is and on offense wen't much better right number 107 uh in total yards gained per game um you tossed in the fact that like they they missed their 10 and a half hour flight to Hawaii yesterday uh and they they had you know tacked on an extra day just in case something like that happened um but there's no way that I could touch this game right like Hawaii should be improved but they're they're not World beaters but their offense could absolutely torch this defense uh if this number gets up to 42 yeah I might buy back like but I'm not going to feel good about it I this is a this is a rough one to be able to mess with and and as we get later in the week and we see the weather and if it really looks like it's going to pour down and whatnot then yeah I'll be looking at Team totals under and I'll be all that kind of stuff but for right now me 39 and a half is Bonkers but it may not be enough I it might Hawaii's got a better offense than what Miami of Ohio had last year and I mean Miami of Ohio putting up 62 on somebody I mean that is like they couldn't beat some of the high school teams in Ohio that bad just terrible terrible all right but before we get into the Q&A uh Kyle you have got a really cool win totals for charity thing going on uh can you fill in the audience on what it is and and how they can get involved yeah um this third season of doing this really fun way to try to help betters win some money and donate to good causes at the same time uh $60 donation to make a wish Wounded Warriors Habitat for Humanity uh you're on the list to receive all my single win total and Futures wages you can find that on the pinned post there on X at Twitter kyoh Hunter piix 12 and3 on the Wagers two years ago 124 and one last year um we are just $150 from 5,000 uh donated this year I would love to top 5,000 for the first time uh it's fantastic to be able to give back to uh good causes like that absolutely absolutely so everybody make sure and check that out uh KY you've had this thing running for a long time it's uh it it's it always does good always does all right let's uh NCAA Football Q&A let's get to the Q&A let's see what the chat has for us today uh we'll jump right in Jackson let's see is that iuma I hope I say that right Yukon versus Maryland he said uh Yukon upset that number opened at 24 A5 it is down to uh let's see 20 and a half uh bet us has got it at 20 Maryland by 20 with a total 45 on it I felt good about Yukon at the 24 A2 I felt good about him at anything over three touchdowns now that it's under three touchdowns uh not not so keen on it um Kyle we'll start with you how do you feel about Yukon against Maryland so Yukon I just said that I've done really well on these season season win totals Yukon was probably my worst play last year I took Yukon over um I really expected better from them and in my notes this year I put I think Yukon should be better probably a good team to bet ATS but they burned me so bad last year I'm kind of afraid to do it um I don't know what happened to Morris team at the end of last year it looked like they kind of packed it up uh I I think that Maryland is a team that usually starts pretty quick lock ley's teams play well early in the season once they get into the Big 10 they usually start struggling against the spread I think over 21 I would have liked Yukon but at 20 um I don't know it is it is a low total 45 44 and a half total so uh I would still lean Yukon Parker what about you what do you feel about Yukon and Maryland this this might be one that we don't talk about next week so maybe we can get some uh some ideas out here yeah I had this one circled as maybe a Maryland play just because you know how much can we believe Mike Loxley saying they want to run the ball a little bit better they got three transfers on the offensive line and and they're losing they're losing Talia so you know maybe they have to run the ball a little bit yeah depending on what they do at quarterback I mean they do have some legitimate wide receivers uh like kden prayther is dude and and so I think they could score but if they come out and they you know Rush rate above expected is is uh positive and they're they're rushing a little bit more playing a little more consistent a little less boom and bust because they were really explosive that defense is actually in really really good limiting explosives and explosives are the way a team like Yukon is going to stay in this is getting that break open Play So if they can kind of play this consistent defense and then back up the talk about toughness on offense uh I could actually see an early season play here where where Maryland is the move just because Yukon might be uh a little bit more in shambles against against that kind of rushing and because we know Maryland loses steam generally so I'm not in love with that but I think right now if I had to pick I I I think i' believe that Maryland's going to try to run the ball a little bit more and be a little more consistent on offense that I mean there's an argument that like they have some continuity and have and if if not improved they've at least refined their ID ID over the last couple of years and if they can you know mitigate the transfer portal well um I think there's no reason they couldn't come out with a strong identity on offense so early in the season Rush heavy I'm leaning towards Maryland in that but I don't know that I love anything yet yeah if Billy Edwards Jr is the quarterback they're going to be running the hell out of the ball I mean it's he he was 10 out of 30 passing last year six out of 20 in the bowl game against Auburn uh but he can run the ball and and I imagine he can hand it off uh so I I mean I'm staying away at this number uh because I did like Yukon when it was over three touchdowns but as of right now probably going to stay away from that one uh let's keep on moving try and get a few more of these in uh what way is Parker leaning Montana State minus 11 half or new mexic we already went over that we already went over derko thank you I'm leaning away from Montana State just categorically and philosophically but uh Helms 22 said what are you guys seeing for the north Alabama game opened at 2 and A2 now it's 10 and a half um so here's here's the deal we don't mess with FTS too much but I noticed the Steam on this but it was almost immediate when it was at two and a half it got jumped almost to me I think the number was just wrong uh because when you go and and look there's not any injury that's major or anything that I could find uh at least looking through some of the beat riders for uh for those teams so I I think the number was just wrong and and I think it got steamed now it might be a little too much so maybe a little buyback on that 10 and a half uh Fox Moulder jumped in any uh any stat metrics related to uh teams traveling over six time zones both in that matchup and the following week Fox you you come in with some crazy stuff sometimes I don't know of any stat that uh that relates to teams traveling over six time zones uh Parker if you got one tell me what you got I don't here's the issue it's going to be really hard to get any kind of empirical like causal identification on this because there's a huge endogeneity problem one you just don't see a lot of teams traveling over six time zones uh in in in certain circumstances and teams that are going to agree to do that are probably there's there's probably some problem with like how good their football team is great college football teams don't need to go from the east coast to Hawaii to get a game right uh and so your sample is biased you're not going to have a big enough sample to really get a lot of information there um and so you're probably going to find that uh you know those teams that do travel do worse because not because they traveled but because they're just bad teams uh in general so from an empirical kind of standpoint being a nerd for a second it's really hard research design here because there's no way to get variation like it'd be cool to just randomly schedule people and then say hey how does this affect but if we backwards to that to what the real data is that it's it's really really going to be hard to get an effect there other than bad teams are bad and so maybe you could treat that as hey if you're going to Hawaii under these circumstances and playing a back toback six times in the way you're bad and I'm going to fade you that might be an okay system but in terms of any kind of statistical empirical identification you're you're really not going to find an effect there what about uh is Ireland six times on his way is that right I think I think I mean it's got to be it's it's eight and a half hours so Delaware State's going 10 and a half hour flight Florida State and Georgia Tech are it's like an eight and a half hour flight over to Ireland so I'm wondering if he's asking about the Boston College game for Florida State the next week or the Georgia State game for Georgia Tech the following week but no I don't believe there is any I was thinking Hawaii I was thinking Hawaii so I have anything there too I mean days of rest Mike Lopez who works at the NFL just published a really interesting paper about days of rest and how that affects NFL games you might go check that out and see if that methodology could be ripped to time zones you're going to have the same problem in the inverse Direction I was thinking solely of Hawaii but generally you know more interesting matchups are going to get some of those those um data frames but uh or some of those uh good teams uh overall yeah I know Nebraska and Northwestern came back and didn't look great uh after going to Ireland but I think they had a week off in between if I'm not mistaken also neither of them were great that year so right like Northwestern did not win a single game in the United States that year they beat Nebraska and won nothing on us soil Kyle what uh do you have any thoughts on this uh the traveling thing I mean this is going to be a big thing with these uh the new expanded conferences because we're going to see teams like Utah going all the way over to UCF uh how is that going to affect them coming back the next week if they have to you know if they're playing in the the Big 12 title game or whatever else I mean it's the time zone thing could be could be a real thing yeah I mean I tried to look up Hawaii just to see you know at home you think Hawaii would have a good home field advantage they are 51 and 63 against the spread at home now they've not been good at covering spreads this dates back to 2006 they're bad at home and on the road they had some pretty bad teams here so does that really matter to today probably not in my opinion and I think Parker's point is a really good one that teams you know you don't see really good teams from the East Coast wanting to go play games in Hawaii I mean we're not going to see Florida State go play Hawaii and Hawaii or something like that if they did would it really matter that had ran up the score against Delaware state it really doesn't so um as far as uh you know what it means to go across all those time zones I think we're going to find out a lot more coming up soon compared to what we've been able to in the past but I think it's hard to uh you know take four or five time zones and get any kind of sample that's large enough to make anything of so far yeah I think uh I think you're on to something there uh Damen Edwards jumped in he said thoughts on Royale Williams possible first touchdown 5 to1 or 6 to1 he said big back Bama transfer should get touches in the Red Zone uh Williams is like 510 215 lb he fits that Norvell system almost perfectly he's like a a bowling ball that has some Breakaway speed um I I mean yeah five or six to one I think they're going to run the hell out of the ball so yeah I think that's not a terrible uh bet I'm not I'm not too big on the props uh you know I like to I like my Straight bets and my totals and whatnot but uh Kyle I mean five or six to one for the starting running back for Florida State being first touchdown scored that's not the worst odds I've seen right it's it's not bad um I wonder what anytime touchdown is for him I don't I don't know offand but um I do think that the first touchdown things are a little bit of a slippery slope because there's so much of a hold on things like that that it gets dangerous if you're just betting all those I think that this is a good matchup for Williams um and I you know I mean this is a Roy Dale should have a really good game here in this one so it might work this time but I'd be careful about you know just constantly betting things like that most certainly I mean the defensive line he's going up against was rated number 15 out of 17 in the ACC so yeah I mean he he got some Red Zone Touches at Alabama uh so I would I would expect the same uh Parker have you guys pointing worth pointing out that last year they ran on only two of eight early Downs uh in their first two drives against LSU and I think that's in like I think that Florida state is smart enough to look at what dju did at Oregon State and say oh let's take the best of that and let's play with some structure I expect them to rush a whole lot in this game um and so I think that that actually gets you a lot more ability I know norell is really great with players and I know that dju coming out and throwing an interception on the first drive would probably ruin your entire season just from a standpoint of what we've seen him do at Clemson for instance so you want structure you want consistency I imagine they run a lot and then get him one or two easy throws uh especially if they get in the Red Zone I think I think norval with this offensive line is going to be fine to ground and pound oh he's he is so good at creating space for people to to get the ball behind the line of scrimmage and just let his Playmakers play and he's got he has said multiple times that this is the the biggest and fastest team that he's ever had at Florida State I don't know if I believe it but he certainly seems to think so and he's uh he's willing to say it so uh last one that we've got on here Gabriel jumped in said uh or Gabriel not gabri what am I talking about Gabriel uh said great show guys thoughts on how will Howard and Dylan Gabriel uh will Faire at their new teams Parker you want to start us off on this I think they're gonna Faire great um I think Dylan Gabriel is really really talented and one thing that Oregon did really well with Bo knck is had a good idea of where his limitations were and set him up for success I think they can do that with Dylan Gabriel he's got a great body of work he suceeded succeeded in multiple systems in multiple places um H it's technically the same system at multiple places but I think that he'll uh you know he's very very experienced and at Oregon I think they've got enough Playmakers around him that they'll try to minimize his exposure to running that's kind of been Gabriel's problem is you know when the offense isn't great he's running and taking a bunch of hits and that's just not sustainable so operating a little more Pro style generally I think he can do it he's super accurate um and should be able to replicate close to what Bon Nick did uh week in week out for Oregon there so uh obviously the trenches pending uh what that final outcome will be but I think Gabriel is great for Oregon will Howard on the other hand I think fits perfectly for a Chip Kelly offense doesn't his arm is not like way better than McCord's per se I'm not I'm not like super down on Kyle McCord you know I understand why they made a change there but I think you know in a skills competition you probably wouldn't be able to differentiate between the two in a passing game but processing big games moments experience and the confidence with its legs I think Howard's going to be able to do a lot there as a quarterback of Ohio State what do you have to do get out of the right just don't be the reason things AR going well and I think that's really what will Howard can do we've seen him grow I mean will Howard's played in a lot of tough situations in Kansas State he's going to for the first time in his life have a talent Advantage at every position basically over most of his schedule so I think he'll be able to cook and I think Kelly is going to be able to do some diabolical stuff one now that he's just coaching and getting to focus on the onfield stuff and two with a with a veteran run the heavy quarterback like like will Howard I think they'll they'll the offensive woes will not be there for Ohio State this year yeah they they have a quarterback that will not give the ball to the other team and I think that's the the most important thing Kelly very similar to Mike norell he can get guys in space I'm I'm excited to see that as well Kyle you you got a feel on I mean will Howard's your guy now tell me tell me what you think about him yeah I mean I I don't think Howard has to be tremendous and that's what makes it a good fit because you know he just has to not mess things up um mcord did make some big turnovers and big spots in that Michigan game obviously his turnover cost them in a huge way uh I think McCord's not a bad quarterback we talked about that last year he's kind of just in the middle he's he's decent he's not great he's not terrible um Howard's legs I hope they do use that more I think Ryan day has been a little bit too uh slow to use that in the past I mean even CJ stoud like it was like he he couldn't run and then all once in that Georgia game he did run a lot and it worked um I think that Howard will will do well because of what's around him the Ohio State offensive line is my only question mark you know hopefully they can be good enough I think they're they're decent but uh the skill position talent's fantastic anytime you have trayon Henderson and Judkins both back there and the wide receivers they have it should look good and Gabriel I mean he's been put in a great spot too so uh I don't think there's any real excuse for those two guys to not have a really good season based on everything that surrounds them and I think the coaching staff's at both places um the coordinators and the head coach are good enough that they're going to be put in great positions this year we uh we got a question from Andrew schroer in the chat said do you guys know when the big boys uh raise betting limits throughout the week if I'm not mistaken that's typically on Fridays is that not Kyle I think there's multiple bumps up on the betting limits I think the first one is Wednesday and then it goes up even more on Friday but that's kind of why you see some releases come out on Wednesday because people want to try to wait till uh the the limits go up a bit and different books do it different ways but uh nobody's going to have the highest limits on uh Sunday night Monday uh but they're going to have the limits up a decent amount Wednesday and then Friday and Saturday uh they'll pretty much take a lot uh Jamal C and this will be the last one before we uh before we give out our Best Bets Etc uh Oklahoma State minus 9 against South Dakota state do we have any thoughts uh I don't have a I don't have a number on that one yet um because I was waiting for the line to actually come out on it I I would think that might be too much but I don't know uh Parker what do you what do you think here I mean nine uh that's not a ton of points but I know that Gundy doesn't really he doesn't really care about these non-conference games so but he either so I you know that's a tough one Ali Gordon had what like 30 touches in their first four games last year or something ridiculous so like are they going to run him or are they going to try to keep him in the tank knowing that he had a little bit of a knee injury at practice or a little scare about that last year um yeah this this isn't this this feels like a game where there's only kind of one tale of outcome of like something bad can hope happened for Oklahoma State like either they don't look good um or they actually end up you know messing around and losing this game with what we've seen them do in the past couple years I don't love Gundy in this spot I'm much more interested in Gundy as a nine-point dog against Texas or something you know where he can spoil and play around here he does almost have that Gary Patterson esque idea of not just hey we're going to take care of business and get out of here healthy but like I'm going to take a perverse pleasure in the fact that like we're going to under uh you know undersell our expectations uh in this game uh and so yeah I'm not uh we'll see how that goes one thing that that was worrisome South Dakota State last year was super explosive right you'd see them just lean on teams lean on teams lean on teams boom get a big play and then they're out by a couple Oklahoma State's defense really really struggle with big plays from down to down efficiency they're actually okay but a lot of their issue was that they were giving up these just Monster touchdowns and plays their Red Zone numbers look okay just because a lot of their touchdowns were outside theed zone so that's something to watch in this game uh and think about but no I don't love a side here yeah I don't I don't either Kyle do you have a you have got a thought on that one I don't I don't think uh I agree with what Parker said I don't think laying nine points here with Oklahoma state is when I want to bet Oklahoma State I I do think Oklahoma State there's going to be good chances to bet on them I hope we get to talk about them plenty this year because I think they'll have a good season um is this really the spot I want to do it no they've played close games against these smaller teams here at the beginning of the past seasons and they've had good teams those years so uh they might be kind of working out the Kinks and we know that they're up against the team although there are small their name they're a really good school so uh I think that's a fun one to watch yeah that's that's going to be interesting to see what South Dakota state looks like uh their OC is now at Northwestern so how much does that change things who knows uh but that's going to be a fun fun ball game uh fox jumped in again he said if Ryan Day loses to Michigan is he getting fired we ain't we're not opening that can of worms right now not yet not yet we'll worry about that one later uh look if you got any other questions you can toss them into the comments on YouTube or you can always reach out to us on X we're going to do our best to get you an answer on those uh but let's go ahead and check out our Best Bets from today's NCAA Football Best Bets show and it's a a pretty short list for this one because it is a a short weekend uh Parker you want to tell us what you got here yeah I'm going to r with Florida State minus 10 a half and then I'm going to take SMU and Nevada over 56 I am also going to take Florida State minus the 10 and a half I'm I'm hoping for a 10 but uh but as for right now for the show I will take Florida State minus 10 and a half uh feel pretty good about the seols think they're going to win this one by two touchdowns and Kyle has no plays no reason to force it if there ain't nothing on the board right I mean that's right I'll I'll have plenty of plays going forward so uh I don't want to give you guys something that I'm not actually betting so I'm not betting anything here no plays exactly exactly I feel we're going to have a good year this year and there is no I mean these numbers have been out and same with next week by the way these numbers have been shaped and molded and whatnot for months so it is tough to get an edge on these games but we're going to do our best we are going to do our best as always of course make sure to keep an eye on the latest odds bv.com ODS and you can join in on the action bv.com jooin all right that is going to do it for today's show we're going to be back again every every Tuesday and Wednesday from here on out so make sure you are subscribed to the channel hit that notification Bell so you know when we go live and of course make sure like the video share the show you guys know what to do you can follow the fellas of course Parker is at stats of War Kyle is at Kyle Hunter pick and I am at Gary uh excuse me WCE we're going to get there eventually uh thank you all for watching for being a part of this the chat is awesome I'm so glad to have everybody back welcome in it's going to be a good time and with that said for us where the game begins God bless college football and we'll see you all again for week one on Tuesday [Music]