Top NFL Week 2 Bets + Anytime Touchdown Picks | Sharp 600

Introduction hello and welcome to the sharp 600 brought to you by covers.com and presented by FanDuel Sportsbook I'm Jason Logan your gambling guide here as we enter NFL week two which is probably one of my favorite weeks of the entire sports betting calendar when it comes to to to betting on football to betting on sports joining me on the podcast here each and every week is Todd Ferman he's our top tier betting analyst also the former oddsmaker turn prog Gambler coming off a perfect 3- 0 debut week one with your podcast pass picks and the cherry on top of that was the Jameson Williams plus 250 touchdown anytime in the Lions game so congrats to you Todd you know the problem with going three and0 right you can only go one direction from here Mr Logan that is absolutely inevitable in this gambling racket that pays our bills that's right so do you love week two as much as I do so I I like it for the knee-jerk reactions and we're in we're in a hot take culture now and everyone's got to just spew their hot takes it's Trey Joe and it's fire this guy and it's drop this guy uh this team's washed uh do you like week two as much as I do going against those kind of common themes I do think it creates some fascinating opportunities I mean you see the entire betting Market overreact or underreact in some cases to one data point and we're going to see these numbers kind of settle over the next couple of weeks but I also caution people that sometimes it's not necessarily what you see from these teams it's the teams they're playing against uh that can lead to that false sense of security and the sky is not falling contrary to popular belief for a lot of teams at least widely across the league but one team Jason that I am legitimately concerned about plays on Monday night I think Atlanta may have bigger problems than just the loss to the Steelers could indicate yeah so I do I do the I do the and they yeah they looked that was a tough draw that was a real tough draw early on to play the Steelers in that first game um so I do the weekly NFL underdogs columa covers and I just always had success with week two betting underdogs I went back and look so since since 20 15 underdogs in week two cover at a 57% rate and if you look at 2020 uh to 2023 those last four seasons um 59% and and I I I I'm going to blame or or I'm going to uh give Twitter the credit for that a lot of overreaction a lot of overselling media culture now is just so hot takish people want to take it and run the other way I like I like those things I'm right there with you and you look at the win loss results from week one I believe chalk the week 13 and three straight up so as a result you've seen a lot of these favorites at least when those numbers were opened up on Sunday get bet in One Direction so it's always a question of when you want to enter the market if you like the dog because to your point you will see some buyback and we've already seen that on the Sunday nighter that Houston Texans game coming off the six and a half down to six and I have to imagine a couple other dogs will get touched up before kickoff on Sunday yeah and that one was as big as plus seven uh bears plus seven which was nuts and that's that's I'm I'm I'm actually on Chicago this week it well and I'll talk about that a little bit later on um any other things before we get into week two any other week one you want to hand out any flowers any awards uh other than the uh Tennessee Titans booby award uh that we wanted to give to Tennessee for that one which was our lone loss we went five- one with our combined picks for week one only loss was Tennessee and the points uh any awards anything that you want to note for week one yeah we're not going to be sending a holiday basket to will Levis anytime soon let's just put it that way because holiday basket of mayonnaise a a punt and pin would have done the job a 19 to 17 Bears win would have been more than okay for us sitting uh on Tennessee plus4 better in that game but you know I think the one market that we've seen a little bit of an overreaction is the offensive Rookie of the Year Malik neighbors doesn't go out there and light the world on fire you know Marvin Harrison Jr kind of an afterthought we saw all three rookie quarterbacks struggle to some extent Jaden Daniels uh running masked a little bit of his deficiency in the passing game but we saw Xavier worthy shoot up that odds board but I think the workload for him will begin a decline a little bit when Hollywood Brown gets reintroduced to that offense so don't overreact to just one data point it's everybody's prerogative to try and do so especially in the awards Market but one player though if you have Christian mcaffry to win offensive player of the year don't really like your prospects right now not quite sure we'll see CMC out there it doesn't appear he'll be anywhere close to being a go this week against the Vikings maybe in the best case scenario he's back for a division game against the Rams that's tough tough for the ners but I mean this is an offense that can kind of plug and play so we we'll see how they do but definitely a guy that that is tough uh to replace none nonetheless I'll reminder that if you've been listening to the sharp 600 podcast all along if you're new to this season uh we just ask you go uh check out and give a rating and review whenever you have time uh we appreciate that feedback it allows us to kind of expand our reach talk to more football fans more Sports betters like yourself all right Todd chitchat is out of the way let's go 600 seconds on the clock for week two [Music] Week 2 Overreactions as mentioned week two time for overreactions and we got to pin pinpoint these kneejerk moves uh you can look at the current week two odds you can look at the look of headlines see some discrepancies there Todd anything in week two that jumps out in terms of an overreaction and possible value uh you know what I think some of the buyback that we've already seen Jacksonville forecasted as a 2. favorite against Cleveland for their week two matchup that number got as high as four you started to see some resistance and I can understand why but there are plenty of questions that have to be answered about this Browns team not just the offensive line but Deshawn Watson can he sorted out does the team even want to Rally around him as the face of that franchise remains to be seen and I know a game we talked about before we got started with the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs three and a half on the look ahead number upwards of six those sixes have started to disappear but some legitimate questions for Joe burrow and the Bengals ability or lack thereof to be able to attack with a vertical passing threat all right I'm going to I'm going to go in the Inception of overreactions there's an overreaction to an overreaction possibly with the Chicago Bears we talked about the bears being the most puffed up team on the board with Caleb Williams and all the pieces that they brought in they were bigger favorites than probably they should have been last week still won still covered to the sugarin of our podcast picks but now they're a touchdown dog at Houston and mama always said that two wrongs don't R A make a right do overreactions on overreactions make a good point spread I'm not sure sure I I I I took Chicago plus s I'm not going to fade this defense I really like this defense I'm also waiting for the CJ strout interception props to come out because he got away with a couple against the Colts I I will say that b the Bears full of ball Hawks um one G True or False?! one game is not a not a lot to really build a a complete kind of opinion on but in the short sample size there may be some truth here and and I wanted to play a little game of true or false with you when it came to week one outcomes and you mentioned this guy already the first question I have for you is true or false desan Watson is a write off look I think he is a write off at this point it's just a question of when the Cleveland Browns want to pull the plug the mobility wasn't there the accuracy was nothing to write home about and the body language is the biggest thing for me Jason he just looks defeated out there and when you're the leader of 52 other men each and every Sunday when the teammates start to have questions about your leadership capabilities that's where everything implodes around you so I think it's just a matter of time before we see jamus Winston of course Famous Last Words watch them go on the road win sweltering humidity this weekend and make me look like a complete bumbling idiot which has happened before and spoiler alert will happen plenty of times throughout the course of the NFL season don't be so hard on yourself pal I it's it's like you said it's a marathon not a not a Sprint they do get some easier def like they got the Jags they get the Giants uh they Vegas they got Washington so some teams that he could have success against not the Dallas Cowboys who looked really good on defense um but he's got this new lawsuit coming out there's some a lot of disturbing things coming there I think really the the league has to look at it and and cut ties with this guy quite honestly enough is enough and and then make Cleveland wear that contract as an albatross just for one being stupid into being stupid stupid with your money and just stupid tying your franchise to a guy with character like this so uh you know I I I would not shed a tear if juston Watson is is gone by week eight and and never plays football again all right back to more sports betting stuff here the the Bucks are they NFC contenders after a strong showing in week one look despite the I'm wearing I'm going to still say false although I did like what I saw from that team offensively uh Baker Mayfield extremely comfortable in the pocket but I think that had much to do with the Washington defense and some of the questions and concerns we have about them but you liked seeing his continued chemistry with Mike Evans we saw both running backs flash a little bit Rashad white not the most efficient as a runner but Bucky Irving may be able to eat into some of that workload Jaylen McMillan had one touchdown pass that was called back did end up getting on the board in his NFL debut defensive ly though the Bucks defensive line already dealing with some injuries and the secondary with a key absence in Antoine Winfield we may just happen to revisit that football game a little bit later in the show yeah they they've got a a uphill climb as well too you got Detroit this week then before they have a buy in week 11 before that they got Detroit this week two meetings with Atlanta uh New Orleans as well so you're going to have those two divisional games always tough but then other non-divisional games against the likes of Philadelphia Baltimore San Francisco Kansas City you throw in the line that's pretty much the top of the Super Bowl B uh odds board there so it it could be could be tough uh they are the third overall choice to win the division still plus 210 Atlanta plus 155 New Orleans what plus 200 range maybe it's time to look at the value with Atlanta or even New Orleans with with just the way the Bucks are kind of set up right now I'm not running by the Falcons in all honesty it'd be the Saints or bucks in that regard you look at the Falcons I mean they get the Eagles on Monday night and then they follow it up next week with the Chiefs there's a realistic possibility that we're talking about the falcon 0 and three and maybe that's a by low but I need to see a little bit more out of Kirk Cousins them telegraphing their plays was very problematic against that talented defensive front from the Steelers all right one more true or false here can the Packers survive with Jordan love survive Jason is a relative term can they win a couple of games sure uh if Matt laflor is able to work a little bit of Wizardry do I think the Market's gone too far for their date this weekend against the Indianapolis Colts no doubt about it but they're going to need Jordan love back sooner rather than later we saw the injury timeline 3 to six weeks if he's out six I don't think they can survive if he's out three I think the Packers will be able to find a way just because I don't think there's enough power in the NFC that's going to be able to really distance themselves in terms of a wild card birth yeah home friendly sced but like Milik Willis just showed up there last week so how much of this offense does he actually know uh let's let's Thursday Night Football Breakdown jump into the Thursday night football game really quick here Miami and buffalo uh couple injuries here Josh Allen's hand non- thrwing hand and then we saw the running backs for the Dolphins pop up at the injur report what do you think about this AFC East game here midweek you know when you're looking at Buffalo they wanted to make a commitment to the ground game we saw that on full display in their opener against Arizona now I know the weather played a little bit of a role in that short week I think you're going to see them try and play a little bit of keep away knowing that this defense isn't quite up to Snuff and Miami can their offense figure it out I mean they look pretty inept in that first half maybe it's the Tyreek Hill situation that unfolded on game day that changed that Dynamic uh but familiar foes short week would lean under the total if I was going to get involved here and maybe even shop around for a chief do cheap Dolphins money line but you mentioned a banged up backfield a little bit problematic for me at this point I took the points with Buffalo I think this spread is wrong look ahead was was one we're seeing two two and a half uh but the Bills game against Arizona there were some about 11 points from Arizona that probably shouldn't been there they had a kickoff return there was a a bad unnecessary uh roughness call that that kind of translated into a touchdown and then as you mentioned the Miami game was weird because they had a two-point uh two- playay span that had a 14-point swing touch back and then the Tyreek Hill home run I think the point bet is wrong on this I like the Buffalo Bills in this game getting points touchdown anytime props some Anytime TD Bets FanDuel sports book nice two and0 on these last week let's make some more money for the folks Todd lead us off so I'm going to go to the quarterback of the New York Giants everyone wants to write him off for dead and rightfully so given how he performed against the Minnesota Vikings but I think this is a much more favorable matchup we've seen the full game total bet up from 412 up to 44 Daniel Jones Red Zone threat not as a thrower but as a runner I'll take DJ to get in the end zone at plus 240 all right and you're giving me extra extra time here Z flowers Baltimore Ravens wide receiver plus 195 to score touchdown against the Raiders had 12 targets against KC he's going to be active in this offense I think the tight ends with Mark Andrews working his way back to health I think they kind of split some targets as well too but he's still the wide receiver one is the guy with a nose for the End Zone he scored five touchdowns in his final seven games of last year he could have had more we know he could have had more Kansas City game but he's a top Red Zone Target uh he's also a guy that can hit it over the top as well too so I like him plus 195 to score a touchdown here against the Las Vegas Raiders in week 2-Minute Drill Best Bets two two minutes real time and our Best Bets for week two Todd lead us off so I am going to go with a live home Underdog or at least one that I hope is live Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities I'm going to take the Vikings plus six against the Niners short week for San Francisco flying across the country we know Christian mcav a long shot to be available Kevin oconnell has had a knack for attacking this 49ers defense we saw it last year Brian Flor has also confused Brock pie a bit a little bit of a Sandwich Spot I wish Jordan Addison was out there for the Vikings but I think Minnesota is live one of the more undervalued teams in the league I'll take the Purple People leaders plus a six Sam darnold Revenge game let's not forget that right uh I'm got to go under 46 and a half Saints and Cowboys let's pump the break on the Saints and the 47 points against the Panthers the Panthers are crap the Cowboys defense not so C really good pass rush good secondary they're going to test the Saints o line and the Cowboys offense don't get fueled by the 33 points that they put up just two offensive touchdowns settled for a lot of long field goals had just 15 first downs the same as the Browns 22nd in EPA per play 37th in success rate in week one I'm going under in this game and uh for my second best bet I'm going to go over it's a first half total look I'll bring it full circle with the cream shirt and I'm going to go over with the Honolulu blues and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this full game total has been bet up a bit but 242 I still show an edge I think both these teams can get out early Detroit knows they can't run against Tampa's defensive front the same applies for the bucks I think you get a little bit more in the way of fireworks than what we saw from Detroit on Sunday night football against the Rams I'm going over in the first half at 24 and a half that buck secondary a mash unit right now all right I I got another over here there's a full game over 47 and a half Falcons and Eagles I mentioned this Atlanta kind of got a raw deal against Pittsburgh's defense early on and they came after Kirk Cousins second highest pressure rate caused a ton of chaos the turnovers really burned up any chemistry now the Eagles under Vic fangio this defense not overly aggressive they don't Blitz a whole lot I think he's going to have some time to get his plays in order as for the Eagles offense looked fantastic uh in that Friday Brazil game still left points on the table though weren't great on third Downs went three for six in the red zone I'm going to finish this thought godd damn it three for six and I'm talking about your Eagles D you love this stuff three for six inside the Red Zone like I said a lot of points left on the table the Falcons just played the pop gun Pittsburgh steel and Justin Fields a lot of points to be scored here on Monday Night Football uh 47 a half Falcons and Eagles over all right I got it in I know it we pass the horn whatever that is it for the week two episode of the sharp 600 a big thank you to listening thank you to Dell behind the curtain thank you Todd thank you FanDuel sports book for jumping in with us this season a reminder that when you get a moment please rate and review the podcast on whatever platform is you choose to listen to us each week we appreciate that Todd any words of wisdom before we go off into to look I mean you got the snap off with one second to go you were like a mobile quarterback running around in the pocket so while the horn went off you still had time to go out there and finish the play so a golf clap for that but uh again don't overreact to what we saw week one we get another data point as we start to learn more and more about these teams and that's the puzzle that we're trying to put together with 32 teams across the league who's overvalued who's undervalued and don't forget to explore some of those player prop markets as well one of the Hidden gems I know FanDuel has quite an extensive menu available to their players each and every week during the season absolutely good stuff all over the board all right we will be back next Wednesday for week three until then best of luck with your [Music] bets it's the greatest week of the year NFL week one in FanDuel America's number one sports book is continuing its special offer to kick us off now through 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