Friday's Best MLB HOME RUN Picks Today [8/30/2024] | The Dong Report

good morning everybody Matt Moda here with the dong report here to give you my favorite MLB home run picks of the day as for the day the way I am playing Dongs for today I have eight guys total so pretty big dong slate six of them I playing in a round robin two of them I'm just taking straight up because the odds didn't make them worth putting in the round robin which I'll explain when I get there so eight players on dong watch today as for yesterday amazing amazing day we desperately needed the day that we had yesterday because it had been pretty dark prior to that but that's just dong life yesterday we got three dongs to mash all three of them for pretty juicy odds we had Jackson Merill took them through with the Home Run we had Brandon Marsh at plus 1100 odds and we had Nick castanos at plus 750 just a great day yesterday up about 6.38 units on the day as for the entire season that brings our profit we are up about 19 units a little bit above 19 units is the exact number which we will take not nearly as good as last year but we'll take betting on dongs and we'll take being in the green for those of you that are new to my channel I would appreciate it if you could hit that subscribe button like comment on this specific video I appreciate those of you who have been rocking with me the Smart Ones know that this is just what dong life is like it's hot it's cold there's a lot of highs and a lot of lows you kind of just have to stick with it came through for us yesterday let's hope it comes through for us once again today and then the last thing that I will mention before we get into the bangers is that I do have a dub Club where I send all my plays out for five bucks a month gets everything that I'm playing across all sports sent directly to your phone text email or telegram five bucks a month if you're interested if you don't want to wait on YouTube or if you want to get everything early that's the option if you rather not want to get everything for free totally fine that's what YouTube is here for and that's enough of that let's start talking dongs plays number one and two are both going to be in the same game I'm taking two Orioles players Anthony sander and yon Ramon uas both of them to hit home runs I'm a little bit annoyed because I had all my plays out that I was going to play and at that time Anthony sender was plus 350 which was a great price on him I waited too long to lock it in and to send these plays out and he's now priced at plus 285 at fandal but that price at plus 285 compared to the rest of the market is still not terrible and hopefully it does mean that these books know that he's going to hit one so we're okay with that but two players in this game on the Orioles feels like the right thing to do uh ballpark pal even though corfield is not seeing as many dongs this year as we traditionally are used to seeing our friends at ballpark pal still rate this as an excellent weather game four home runs to be hit so no harm no foul there and since the Rockies are throwing out a left-handed hitter we wanted to Target Two right-handed hitters granted sandir is a switch hitter but he'll be batting righty against Austin gomber and gober's terrible that's why we're targeting two Orioles batters he has a home run per nine of 1.70 on the year which is terrible it's been even worse since July 1st with a home run per nine of 1.92 since July 1st which also happens to be his last 10 starts so I like to look at the last 10 starts he's been terrible in the last 10 starts 1.92 home run per nine he's given up a total of 12 home runs which is awful 10 of those 12 runs have come or excuse me home runs have come off of right-handed hitters now sandir has cooled off a little bit since I mean he went on like a TW Monon stretch where he was basically hitting a home run every other game he's not quite doing that he hasn't hit a home run in the last five games but you look at his game log yesterday probably coming out of that a little bit he had three hard hits total every time he made contact with the baseball it was a hard hit one of them was an absurd 110 mph off the bat which is crazy another one was a fly out that traveled 360 ft that was 97 milph off the bat looking at uas he's a little bit of a deeper cut this was a pitch mix play for yon Ramon uas but he's been feasting on baseballs recently yesterday he had a fly out that would have been a home run in 177 of 30 stadiums it was 99.6 mph hour off the bat he's mostly going to see four seam fast balls from gomber and he has just hit the piss out of four seam fast balls over the past month what he's been doing the fast balls has been crazy confident that he and sere Dong won for us tonight that's plays number one and two plays number three and four are also in the same game so because of the way FanDuel does these round Robins are going to need to place both the Orioles guys and then both of these two guys as a separate same game part they're the only two that are in the same game so it's three bets total one round robin one sandir and uas SGP and then one uh O'Neal Cruz and Jun kensy jeni Noel SGP which is plays three and four O'Neal Cruz and jeni Noel so we're talking we talked about how hot Urias has been and what he's been doing to the baseball O'Neal Cruz has been assaulting baseballs recently there's no other way to describe it than what he has been doing to baseballs is just straight up assault what he's doing is illegal in most most countries he's been crushing them now O'Neal Cruz has been crushing baseballs all year he's like one of the leaders in average exit velocity because he annihilates the baseball the problem with him and why he traditionally doesn't make the dong report is because his launch angle is consistently pretty low you know a couple days ago I had a fake not real fight with someone in my Discord who was on O'Neal Cruz because he had five hard hits the day before four of those five were hit directly into the ground he was trying to hit the ball and give them to Satan in hell with how hard he was hitting it directly into the ground but he hits fast balls in the air a little bit more than other pitches and in that game he was going up against like a soft contact pitcher through Cutters and sinkers and stuff that's not the case today he's going up against Ben Lively Ben Lively loves throwing four seam fast balls to left-handed hitters and he allows left-handed hitters to put the ball in the air so I do think that O'Neal Cruz can just lift the ball up a little bit in this game which is why we're going with Lively allows the 18th highest Fly ball rate in the MLB of all pitchers that have thrown at least 120 Innings that's a pretty big sample size and that number is even higher against left-handed hitters his Fly ball rate against righties 41.8% his Fly ball rate against Ley 44.8% and that 44.8% would be the 13th highest and then from there he allows the seventh fastest average exit velocity against at 90.4 milph that's a really bad combination allowing batters to put the ball in the air and hit it hard he's definitely a dong ball type of pitcher that you do want to Target and as I mentioned he predominantly throws four seam fast balls which O'Neal Cruz has been assaulting that's again the only way I can describe what has been doing to foram fast balls over the past month I'm talking an average exit velocity of 104.8 mph off the bat that's his average he's got an 86% hard hit rate in 10 separate times in the last 4 weeks has he he hit a fouram fast ball above 100 mph off the bat incredible stats he's going yard today as for Noel aka Big Christmas he does not need a cell at all because he's been really really good he's at four home runs off of Lees in the last month and that's only in 17 at bats which is incredible he gets a very good match up against bayy falter of the pirates that one doesn't need a selling point jiny Noel I think I'm hopefully I'm pronouncing it right he's definitely going to hit a home run that's plays number three and four play number five of the dong Robin I'm taking Dylan Cruz to hit a home run this is at I was plus 600 this one dipped a little bit to plus 560 still a really good price and I really like backing this young guy on the Nationals for those of you who don't know who Dylan Cruz is he is a young prospect that was just called up a couple days ago and he's been pretty good since he was called up he just hit his first home run on Wednesday and he's been hitting the ball really hard overall now the matchup we has sha imanaga is sh's really good I'm not going to say that he's not the thing with imanaga is he is definitely susceptible to giving up the dong ball because the reason why he loves to throw fast balls he's a left-handed pitcher and Cruz is a righty so we do get that M that that advantage in our favor there and he throws fast balls literally over 50% of the time now he has a high strikeout rate he also has a high hard hit rate so basically batters are either swinging and missing or they're making contact and they are hitting nukes off off of his fast ball that's kind of how things work he's allowed eight home runs two right-handed hitters specifically off of his fast ball in the last two months that's a lot of fast ball or a lot of home runs off of one pitch he's allowed 10 home runs total to righties eight of those have come off of the four seamer so if you can get a hold of his four seamer you can hit that bad boy out of the ballpark that's what Cruz has been doing now because he was only called up not that long ago everything you look at with him is going to be a small sample size so He's only seen a couple four seen fast balls like four is what we're tracking based on game dat insights the site that I used He's only seen four all four of which or sorry three of four he's absolutely crushed the Home Run he hit was off of a four fast ball he hit that 399 ft another one he had a 385 ft double that that was 105.8 milph off the bat so the four times he seen a four seen fast ball one time he struck out the other three he hit hard hits two of which were piss missiles above 100 milph so he's been really really good he has a better matchup than you would think against sha imanaga so we're getting a really good price on him I think this is a great play that's play number five play number six in our last play specifically for the dong Robin you probably guessed it it's Jackson Merill he might end up I haven't really gone through and looked at success rate per individual batter he's probably going to end the year as the dong report MVP I've gone with him a lot recently he's come through a lot recently that happened yesterday he hit a home run he matched our first dong of the day starting off the day with him hitting a home run in the day games knowing we were immediately going to be in the green because he matched one was a great feeling and he's still being priced like he's not as good as he is plus 600 he should be in the 400 range now the reason why he was priced so high yesterday is the same reason why he's priced so highly today he's going up against what is thought of as a stud pitcher this time he's going up against Taj Bradley of the ray now Bradley is a good pitcher he hasn't been as good this year specifically in the Home Run Department like he's been allowing a decent amount of home runs especially recently you look at his last five starts he's given up an astounding seven home runs in his last five starts four of them or sorry three of them he gave up two home runs really really bad and which he's been recently and he has and he's only given up two to lefties but he hasn't seen a ton of lefties so I'm not really scared off there overall lefties have hit him pretty hard and Deo kind of similar to jenzie Noel probably doesn't need a sales pitch because of how good he's been uh the pitch mix he's going to see are mostly four seen fast balls and mostly Splitters now I will admit in the if you look at the last seven days he hasn't been as good against four seam fast balls as he was the week prior to that so like days 8 to 14 days ago annihilating fast balls the last seven days not quite as good but you still look at at the whole sample size of the last two weeks the last month the entire season still really good stat STS against the for team fast ball so like one week not hitting it well isn't going to scare me off especially cuz he's been hitting daong and then the next pitch as I mentioned was the splitter which he hasn't seen a ton of Splitters in the last like he hasn't seen any in the last two weeks he hasn't I think he's seen one in the last month he's seen eight since July 1st of those eight he has five hard hits and one strikeout so he's good he's going to come through with the home run this is the end of the dong Robin again if two of these guys hit a home run we will be pretty squarely in the green let's hope for that next up I have two straight bets that I talking about uh that I mentioned it's Juan sto and Jazz Chisum Jr both of them in the same game both of them I'm putting a half unit on both of them are best offered at Caesars so the reason why I I didn't include these in the dong Robin was because look at their odds on FanDuel compared to their odds at Caesars they're like over 100 cents different 100 points every you want to call it different between Caesars and FanDuel so it wasn't really worth taking on FanDuel so just putting these separately straight up half unit each if one of these guys hits a home run we will be green for the entire day we just need one of these guys the entire day we're making money but both of these guys are way overpriced for what they should be now the reason why is because you're going to look at the weather report at yany stadium and you're going to see winds blowing in from right field the winds aren't that heavy they're like 7 miles per hour which doesn't dramatically affect the trajectory of the baseball and according to our friends at ballpark pal it's not a Terrible Weather game like it's not in the red for home runs so not really scared off of the weather at all and the Pitcher they're going up against Eric fety of the Cardinals is a pitcher that you want to Target for left-handed hitters he's given up 19 home runs on the year 12 of those home runs have come off the lefties and basically 50% at bats against each he hasn't seen really that many more home run per nine of 0.84 against righties 1.46 against lefties he was traded at the deadline to the Cardinals and he's had he's he's made five starts as a member of the Cardinals home run perine of 1.63 in those five starts he's allowed five home runs three of them have come to left-handed hitters and this is a pitch mix thing as well he throws Cutters over 50% of the time when facing left-handed hitters woto destroys Cutters incredible stats against Cutters jazz is good but not as good as SoDo against the cutter but the next two pitches makes up the basically the rest of the pitch mix that they will see and Jazz hits those really well they're change UPS in sinkers so Jazz hits change ups and sinkers better than stto while stto hits Cutters better than Jazz so it's kind of why I wanted to get action on both because Soto's going to take a a cutter yard and then Jazz will take either a change up or a sinker yard they'll both probably come through I also put five bucks on a same game paray of them too as well because so if they both hit I'm really sitting pretty but that is all we got eight guys on dong watch for you guys to lock in one six six leg dong Robin that I'm putting again 1.5 units total risk on 10 bucks on each individual two * two uh for again for uh 1.5 units risk total Sant D in uas in the Orioles game Cruz in Noel in the Guardians game then I'm taking Dylan Cruz spelled differently and Jackson Merill to round out that six legger and then we have Juan SoDo and Jazz chisel as our two straight bets rounding out our Dongs for the day and that's all we got I appreciate everybody for watching make sure like comment subscribe all that good stuff and have a good one