Thursday's Best MLB HOME RUN Picks Today [8/29/2024] | The Dong Report

good morning everybody Matt Modi here with the dong report here to give you my favorite MLB home run picks of the day I ended up playing today pretty heavily I'm not going to lie to you guys there's a lot of dong machine pitchers on the mound today and I wanted to get a piece of a lot of those dong machine pitchers so I'm playing today with eight players on dong watch I'm not going to have around Robin which I will explain when I get into the picks just didn't make sense today so I'm playing all eight of these guys straight up pretty juicy dong day today let's hope that we can have a good one yesterday we did get Otani to hit a home run but unfortunately none of our straight guys hit a home run I should definitely phrase that differently none of the guys that we took straight up hit a home run and then Otani we put in around Robin so we did not get any of our stake back there down one and a half units yesterday that concludes just a miserable week with the dong report seven straight days of not a lot of luck hopefully that turns around today I love the board today which I've loved the board the past couple days hasn't come through very confident that it's going to come through today on the entire season we're still up over the 10 unit Mark like up a little bit over 12 units or something like that we've lost a lot over the past 7 days but we gained a lot the past couple days prior to that so it's all just the es and flows of dongs and how things go again eight players on dong watch today that I absolutely love before we get into that I would appreciate it if you could subscribe to my YouTube channel and then like and comment on this this video let me know who you like to hit a home run and then I also do have a dub Club where I send all my plays out across all sports five bucks a month gets everything sent directly to your phone if you're interested check that out if you're not interested you want to get everything for free on YouTube no problem let's start talking dongs so the the first play that we're going to go ahead and lock in here is in the Orioles vs Dodgers game and I'm taking Will Smith to hit a home run the Fresh Prince let's hope that he comes yard for us today plus 52 five odds at bet MGM putting a half unit on this one the reason why I'm not playing around Robin I ended up having a lot of guys in the same game which is always confusing with the round robin and there was no consensus book that had the best odds there were some players where FanDuel was wildly different there were some players where DraftKings or bet 365 were wildly different it just didn't make sense from an expected value perspective to play these as round robin so I didn't do it playing all these guys straight up so Will Smith going up against a left-handed pitcher tonight in Cade Povich who stinks the good news is Cade poic throws a four seam fast ball as his most frequent pitch and Will Smith hits lefties really hard hits for SE fast balls from lefties really hard as well on the entire season his average exit velocity against the fouram fastball 95.2 milph that's really really good now pitcher orb hitters are going to have higher exit velocity or faster I should say exit velocity against for Team FAST balls but to put will smiths in perspective for you higher than his teammate mooki Betts higher than his teammate teoscar Hernandez two guys that hit pretty well Will Smith hits foring fast balls better than them he's got a hard hit rate of 54.4 five% and a Fly ball rate and this is the most important one Fly ball rate of 63% you get that ball hard you get that ball put in the air that equals home run and both of those numbers that hard hit rate and Fly ball rate higher than the same two guys mookie bets foscar Hernandez next up is the curveball which admittedly I will say he doesn't hit that hard off of lefties it's also not a ton of plate appearances so it's hard to get it's hard to really know it's going on there and like nine plate appearances against a uh against a change or against a curveball next up is the change up my head's going 100 miles hour uh he'll see a change up about 16% of the time hits change UPS pretty well 11% Barrel rate 333 ISO rate against change UPS from lefties and if you look at the past month his counting stats against left hand handed pitching doesn't look great like he hasn't gotten a lot of hits or a lot of home runs but he's consistently hit the ball hard and he's consistently put the ball in the air with a 54.55% flight ball rate against lefties over the last month and against the for seamer specifically literally a 100% hard hit rate when he's making contact with the ball he's crushing it he hasn't quite gotten one to go yard but he's putting the ball in the air and hitting it hard against an awful Orioles pitcher tonight against K again Kade Povich very confident that he comes through for us next up I have two play players in the Giants versus Brewers game again every single one of these bets I'm just taking straight up I'm putting a quarter unit on Matt Chapman to hit a home run at plus 400 and I am putting a half a unit 0.5 units on Grant McCrae to hit a home run plus 550 odds at bet 365 you can also get that at bet MGM for context the closest book for Chapman was plus 350 while fandel had Grant McCrae at plus 450 so 100 points different for McCrae 50 for Chapman now these two are going up against Aaron savale of the Brewers absolutely stinks Aaron savale is terrible one of the worst dong pitchers in the MLB I think he's got the second worst home run per nine in the MLB he's equally as bad against righties and lefties so we're targeting a righty and Matt Chapman and we're targeting a lefty and Grant McCrae now Chapman has been crushing fast balls uh excuse me crushing right-handed pitching reason he's been on fire over the last two weeks he's hit two home runs total over the last two weeks against righties which isn't amazing but what is amazing 14.81% Barrel rate and a 55% hard hit rate and Matt Chapman has incredible stats against Cal's pitch mix which will predominantly be the Sinker 38% of the time Chapman crushes sinkers the issue is he hasn't been able to put them in the air they've been mostly line drives or even ground balls which that's not amazing but he mashes sinkers with a 66.67 so 2/3 hard hit rate against sinkers from righties over over the last two weeks but as I mentioned he hasn't been able to lift it but Aaron savali part of what makes him such a bad home run pitcher is he allows batters to put the ball in the air so if there was ever a time where Chapman could put the ball in the air on a sinker it would be against Aaron Sali and then as for Grant McCrae everything with him is going to be a small sample size because he was literally called up two weeks ago on August 14th since he's been called up he's been on fire it's been two full weeks three home runs total 279 ISO rate in those two weeks with a 20.8 % Barrel rate and an average exsit velocity of 92.6 mph very very good numbers there and he's literally done all of his damage against right-handed pitching which is what he's going to be facing tonight in Aaron savale and even more specific than that he's done all of his damage against Cutters which against righties excuse me against lefties savali is the righty against left-handed hitters he throws Cutters the majority of the time so his pitch makes changes depending on the handedness of the pitcher against righties mostly sinkers against lefties mostly Cutters literally all three of the home runs that Grant McCrae has hit have come off of Cutters he's seen three Cutters all three have been sent to the moon so let's hope he does that today let's hope both of these guys hit home runs next up I'm taking uh Jackson Merill to hit a home run Jackson Marl has been absolutely on fire recently and getting this at plus 630 odds is an absolutely is an absolute gift somebody at FanDuel is going to get fired for having Jackson Merill at plus 630 odds every other B book literally every other book is in the plus 400s with the closest book being plus 450 half unit on this one it's probably my favorite play on the board when you consider the batter when you consider the matchup and when you consider the odds maro's been on fire recently he's going to win NL rookie of the year he mashes right-and uh mashes right-handed pitching which is what he's going to be facing tonight he mashes fast balls from right-handed pitching which is the majority of what he's going to see tonight and sunny gray W Sunny gray has the name value of an ace pitcher not someone that you want to Target for a home run prop Sunny G can get hit up by lefties he's he's really really not good against lefties and that's what Jackson Merill is on fire love Jackson Merill and a lot of this again it's the value here plus 630 at fandel every other book is in the plus 400s it's just some like I said somebody at fandel is going to get fired for that price I'll gladly gladly take advantage of it that is what our fourth play play number five I'm taking uh jiren Duran to hit a home run plus 750 odds at FanDuel this is when I'm putting 0.4 units on it and I know the the unit sizing might seem a little weird basically what I tried to do was make it so we can get one of these guys to hit a home run and get very close to profit that's kind of the case with like Matt Chapman if he hits a home run we're going to basically break even be a little bit in the green Jackson Merill if he hits a home run same thing we'll get most of our money back that's kind of why I did the odds uh excuse me the unit sizing the way I did and Jaren is the same thing plus 750 for him is crazy it's another price that I just could not P could not pass up now the weather in Boston is not very conducive for home runs that's why we're getting jiren Duran at plus 750 odds but still it's a it's a short left field um at at Fenway Park which which is part of it and like I said he's just he's just been mashing the baseball he's got six home runs off of righties over the past month 11.76% baray rate 49% hard hit rate which again that doesn't look amazing but it's six home runs which is the kicker here and if you look at the last four weeks he's hit four home runs against right-handed pitching all four of those home runs have come off of a four seam fast ball that's what he will see over 50% of the time tonight now the pitcher for the Blue Jays isn't terrible so this is not a play where we are targeting a dong machine type of pitcher but it's more so just backing one of the hottest batters in the planet and the fact that bow and Francis a four seam fastball over 50% of the time that's where Durant again has done most of his damage all four of his home runs in the last two weeks have come off of four seam fast balls from righties and we're getting it at plus 750 odds which is crazy again a lot of this is just is just hunting the value here and then our last three plays are all going to be in the same game we're talking Braves versus Phillies one of the best weather games of the day four home runs and we're targeting another dong machine dong ball type of pitcher in Old Man Big Daddy Charlie Morton Charlie Morton is 95 years old he's had a good career it's amazing how he's been able to pitch for so long he has not been good this year in the last two months worth of data he's given up a home run to EV uh every 9.2 at bats against right-handed hitters basically every time he goes through the lineup he's allowing one righty to hit a home run which is terrible laughably bad now I get that the Phillies didn't do anything at the plate yesterday they I mean the the the success for the Phillies was not getting no hit the good news is going up against Spencer Eric GTI one day then going up against Charlie Morton the next day that's like going from JV to to not even JV to like college that's the difference between those two pitchers and Morton despite being a righty significantly worse against right-handed hitters as I mentioned in the last two months a home run every 9.2 at bats against righties that's terrible we're going to have two righties today and Trey Turner and Nick casos I guess I should have mentioned the three players we have are Trey Turner Nick casos and Brandon Marsh I'm putting a half unit on try Turner at plus 560 very juicy price I'm putting 35 units on Nick casos at plus 750 very juicy price and I'm putting a quarter unit on Brandon Marsh at plus 11100 incredible price on Brandon Marsh I don't get what the books are doing with that one so with um to get back to Turner and castanos the two righties both of them have extremely high chase rates as a Phillies fan they're incredibly annoying to watch play baseball because they just constantly Chase sliders out of the Zone the good news is Morton doesn't have strikeout stuff he he gets he gets by by placement not by striking batters out and he allows a home run for nine of 1.95 to righties on the season that's horrible that's terrible both of them have hit his pitch mix very hard over the last two weeks which will mostly be a curveball and a four seam fast ball and then as for marsh he's quietly been mashing recently you look at Brandon Marsha's stats over the last um last two weeks last month hitting the ball incredibly hard should not be priced where he is against the same two pitches which is what um which is what Morton also throws the most frequently against lefties as well so there's no difference between righties and lefties he still throws a fouram fast ball and a curveball the majority of the time Brandon Marsh has a average exit velocity above 100 miles hour against those two pitches from righties 21% barrrel rate 83% hard hit rate plus 1100 for him is crazy schwarber is also a good play Harper I don't like as much cuz Harper can't hit off speed stuff so they're going to throw him a bunch of curveballs which he hasn't been able to hit so if you want to take schwarber I don't want to have four guys in the same game but if you wanted to take schwarber I wouldn't talk you out of it but I love the board today couple dong ball pitchers couple red hot batters put that together hopefully we have a good day today any combination of two will equal pretty big profit anything more than that will equal very big profit and if we get one we'll do most of our money back if not a little bit of profit depending on who the one guy is but that's all we got I appreciate everybody for watching make sure to like the video comment subscribe all that good stuff check out the dub Club if you are interested and have a good one