Europe Weather: September is Off to a Historic Start, What’s Next? | Weekly Forecast

September 1st might be the start of meteorological Autumn but it certainly doesn't feel like it as temperatures across most of the European continent remain far above average in fact records have already been broken this month across numerous countries from the Balkans all the way to Germany as we go through this week an increasingly anticyclonic weather pattern will not only favor the continuation and further intensification of this abnormally hot weather but we're also going to see a significantly different and potentially problematic storm track with those thoughts in mind please enjoy the following [Music] report August was a pretty active month for thunderstorms especially across the Mediterranean and here's one example from the Greek and Turkish Border in this case the weather was safe for boating right where the picture was taken but this serves as a reminder to always keep an eye on the latest weather forecast before venturing out over open Waters because conditions can change very quickly in an un a atmosphere now for the latest update on the tropics we still have the same disturbance sitting at about a 40% chance of development as it traverses the Caribbean in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic another system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and it may have an opportunity to organize into a tropical depression or storm as it drifts northwestward lastly the National Hurricane Center has just designated a third area in the central Tropical Atlantic but this one only has about a 10 % chance of developing in summary the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season remains in an unexpected state of relative calm while that may be the case there has been no shortage of extreme weather events around the world a strong El ningo event which started in June of 2023 and ended in May of this year led to decreased rainfall across the Amazon rainforest below average rainfall then coincided with intense heat waves leading to severe drought and an increased risk of wildfires this map helps us visualize the overall severity of the drought across South America and you can see how most of the extreme drought is affecting Western Brazil into neighboring portions of Peru and Bolivia on the latest satellite data massive amounts of wildfire smoke can be seen smothering multiple South American countries creating unhealthy air quality the main drivers of this week's weather will be two very large and strong anticyclones one over Russia and Kazakhstan and the other over the Atlantic the one occupying Eastern Europe and even Asia will keep the weather very warm and dry especially for September standards while the Atlantic anticyclone will completely block the pest from the West within the next day or so low pressure will become less prevalent between Iceland and the North Sea ultimately Paving the way for both anticyclones to connect and further increase their influence across Europe this new weather pattern will be great news for some of you who have experienced a wet and cool summer but this could also spell trouble for the South how so well it all starts with this nearly invisible low pressure system coming from Iceland around the edge of the Atlantic High it should cross over Ireland and the UK between Tuesday and Thursday with nothing more than light showers and cooler air before reaching the Bay of bisque shortly thereafter once that occurs development of the system will accelerate as it meand around France for several days Locked In by both anticyclones forming a barrier from the Atlantic to Russia with heavy rain and storms repeatedly impacting parts of Iberia all the way to the Western Balkans in association with that system flooding will become a concern through the weekend and possibly longer we're going to get back to the rainfall aspect of this weather pattern in a bit but let's first take some time to talk about the temperatures like I mentioned in the introduction we already have an ongoing Heat Wave for a large part of Europe watch as the heat wave intensifies especially across the Nordic countries by Wednesday and remains firmly established from Central Europe into Russia then after a cooler air mass briefly passes over the UK and Ireland through Friday the extratropical Cyclone around France will pull much warmer air as far west as Ireland while Iberia is far below average overall the weather pattern for the week ahead is not going to favor much relief from the heat except for parts of the Iberian Peninsula which have been shaded in blue as for everyone else in the orange Shades temperatures will likely run above average being most likely in the dark red extending from Central Europe to Northwestern Russia drier than average conditions will coincide with many of the same countries experiencing very warm weather such as Norway Poland and Russia to name a few on the other hand from Germany and France to southern Europe and the Western Balkans as well as turkey and Northern Africa very wet weather is likely also notice how the pattern will be reversed over the UK and Ireland instead of the wetest weather affecting the north and west most of the rainfall should be confined to the south and east regarding the possibility of flash flooding I would watch Southern England in a corridor from Spain to the Western Balkans in particular the highest risk will be in Northern Italy where we see a concentration of orange and red which by the way represents as much as 200 mm of rainfall according to this specific weather model additionally the potential for sever thunderstorms will exist mainly in areas surrounding the warm Mediterranean Waters such as Italy and Northern Africa but I can't R out at least a lower in severe threat extending it to Germany and Denmark through Wednesday and also for parts of Southern Russia Georgia and turkey I'm also closely monitoring Eastern Spain into the Boler islands for Wednesday since a powerful thunderstorm complex could form then on Thursday the greatest risk of significant severe weather will shift into the terranean sea and Coastal portions of Sardinia this time large to very large hail should be the most prevalent threat I'll have more updates coming soon as more details emerge so if you are new to this Channel and enjoyed the report consider subscribing with the notification Bell on thanks for watching and I'll see you on the next one