Tropical system forecast to form in Gulf, could bring wet weather to metro Atlanta

e e good evening good afternoon afternoon almost evening to everyone uh watching the stream right now whether you're watching on atlantan newsfirst.lk stream dedicated to just weather a lot to talk about in the first allord forecast here um not necessarily over the next you know two to three days it's really as we look to the end of the work week and the start of the coming weekend we're going to be turning our eyes Southward watching the Gulf of Mexico it is after all despite the fall feel out there if you're streaming from North Georgia it is still a hurricane season and still a time to to certainly keep an eye on the First Alert forecast so again changes on the way later this work week very nice start to the week into the weekend right there with it midweek changes and then late week impact to possibly your plans commute Friday Night Lights could be pretty uh pretty wet a little bit stormy again a potential right now but that's our job as meteorologist right to kind of fine tune the forecast and as soon as possible as soon as we know that there's a potential for some impactful weather we're going to throw on that first alert weather day we have a couple of those now uh Thursday into Friday this is a good platform uh platforms to ask your questions uh address any concerns you may have uh just if you need extra clarification on the forecast this platform streaming on Atlanta newsp plus is a place that we can chat back and forth It's a two-way conversation uh and hopefully that'll instill even more understanding in the forecast as well uh two places we can chat Atlanta news first the YouTube account we're streaming there right now uh YouTube's been a little weird just being honest the past couple of days a little harder to see some of those comments so I will go back after the live feed has posted and answer any questions that I may have missed you can also text us and perhaps this is the best way all you have to do is text 47 0777 W NF that's 470 777 92 63 and I'll kind of remind you a couple times to the stream what we have going on as far as ways to communicate as well let's take you outside temperature wise at least very nice upper 70s and lower 80s across North Georgia and Metro Atlanta warmest generally off to the south of the city of Atlanta uh but it is uh still a comfortable day even where we're in the 80s low humidity nice weather in the First Alert forast again for those that are still tuning in I'm First Alert meteorologist cutter Martin here streaming the First Alert forecast at 4:30 this is a place where we can go in depth with the forecast and and it's nice on a day like today where it's very nice right now but some active weather possible in the forecast is we get to Weeks end uh certainly a lot to track but right now it's nothing uh but good news brilliant Sunday weather is on going across North Georgia and Metro Atlanta temperatures in the mid uper 70s up in the mountains Helen Gainesville elj even Canton far north Metro for Scythe County Lake lanir likely in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees so stunning weather no complaints 10 out of 10 in my opinion at least and again just let me know what you're thinking about the weather uh you can text us 4707772280 going back to that stream after it's live posted on YouTube and answering questions I can just go back on YouTube and do that after the fact uh you can also reach out to me on social media cutter Martin C TT r m r t n any social media platform give me a like and a follow if you don't mind or just shoot me a message and I'll and I'll answer back of course temperature in Thomason warmest 86 uh Rome Northwest side but still a little warmer in the mid 80s but this is with low humidity this is with dry air a light Breeze lots of sun really is a stunning day out there in fact we can take you live outside maretta Square few clouds though more Sun than what we had yesterday trees barely moving but there is a light Breeze out there that's only adding to uh we'll call it the natural air conditioning uh of the atmosphere uh today it's very very nice outside and and the nice weather continues on through the evening not anticipating any you know significant changes in the forecast as we go through the next 12 24 36 hours that'll get us on through Monday uh as far as this evening is concerned yes lower 80s right now in Atlanta but we're back in the upper 70s I think right as we approach Sunset maybe 7 800 p.m. already back in the upper 70s 9:00 p.m. mid 70s 70 flat at midnight so a pretty quick cooling rate kind of like yesterday evening that's the magic of dry air uh with a clearer sky with dry air you can warm up quickly during the day but also cool off more quickly at night you know when we think about deserts getting hot during the day and then relatively cool at night that's because of that at least one of the reasons why that happens is the air is very dry it can warm up more quickly and cool more quickly depending on Sunshine and other factors out there uh and we'll bottom out in the load mate 60s around the immediate Metro tomorrow morning 64 your forecast low in Atlanta 53 elj 64 Eon 63 in lrange mid uper 50 is pretty common I would say rural areas north Metro Cherokee County for scyth County BTO County Cartersville over to Floyd County chatuga County everywhere to the north of that line Hall County Lake ler kind of the dividing line between upper 50s lower 60s uh even lrange Thomason cooler than the city of Atlanta thanks to all the pavement right temperatures in the lower 60s L range and thomasan with relatively low humidity we're going to wake up to some sunshine and it's going to be a nice Monday though a little bit warmer as we get into Monday afternoon uh do keep that in mind it's going to be kind of a quicker warmup tomorrow though still with low humidity and a nice forecast overall Monday morning commute nothing but good news no weather worries no weather impact uh temperatures bottoming out again across the immediate inside I 285 and maybe just outside so decab County Fon County especially Central and Southern Fon County Douglas County South Cobb North Clayton far North Henry Southeast de cab Southwest de cab rather core of the city I would say mid-60s you get anywhere outside of there some lower 60s probably mixed in uh with Sunshine no real weather wo out the door in the morning case in point let's start our forecast tomorrow morning uh 6: a.m. you know you're getting up and AD them trying to get the kiddos up by that point uh lots of sunshine no worries going through the afternoon again lots of sun a couple of clouds much like today but overall not too much of an impact as far as the first forecast is concerned we're not concerned about the weather tomorrow it's going to be a brilliant day and a warmer afternoon with temperatures in the mid to Upper 80s 87 your forecast for Atlanta 84 Covington keep in mind today we're in the lower 80s tomorrow mid to Upper 80s even our Mountain Community is just a sco warmer back up to around 80° tomorrow afternoon and let's go ahead and just jump ahead to the 7A forecast I know we have quite a few people streaming right now at least on YouTube I would think similarly on Roku and our other streaming platforms and and the highlight of this forecast and I want to spend this moment especially to talk more about it because we do not have an early evening newscast today on Atlanta news first because of uh Sports we are preempted on pretty much every CBS station across the country is preempted by Sports uh so wanted to take a moment to use this platform to go more in depth to the forecast and also reminder you can address any questions you have comments concerns whatever it is you can text us 470 7779 263 that's 470 777 wnf you can comment on YouTube though a little harder to read those comments YouTube went through a change I think and we're working to get those uh comments more visible to our streamers here at Atlanta news first but we can go back after the fact and look at those comments as well but the the big fact fact about the extended forecast is that we're going to have a pretty abrupt change in the weather across North Georgia and Metro Atlanta that change it begins Wednesday no real impact Wednesday but you're going to notice clouds quickly move in Wednesday so we go from a lot of sunshine Monday even Tuesday and then quickly clouds you know the first signal that changes around the way they arrive Wednesday rainy weather possible Thursday and a Friday now it may not rain constantly of course during that 48 hour period but rounds of rain potentially heavy rain and the Poss possibility of some isolated severe weather but the risk of heavy rain I would say and the risk of severe weather entirely dependent on two factors here and that's going to be how strong this uh area of storming is how organized this area of storming is right now in the Gulf of Mexico gets uh you're taking a look at uh a a map right now and of course this is the latest from National Hurricane Center that red X kind of denotes where this area of lowest pressure is is expected to be hurricane Hunters out there today though to get more clarification we also again this is a complicated setup have a stalled front front that moved through North Georgia gave us a brilliant you know Saturday Sunday stalled front and that's helping to percolate and kind of pull tropical moisture here across much of the Bay of campee the far Southern Gulf of Mexico and the uh we'll call it West Central Gulf of Mexico again nearly continuous showers and thunderstorms developing in this area and conditions forecast to become even more favorable for a tropical system uh to develop again within that red shaded area anywhere within that polygon we could see our next tropical depression or storm develop uh next name on the list would be Francine 90% chance of that developing we've seen chances increase basically all that means is that you know maybe seven days ago this had a 20 to 30% chance of development now up to 90% chance of development that's because as forecasts go a lot of these percentages are dependent on confidence How likely something is to occur and it's getting more and more likely forecasters at the Hurricane Center getting more and more confident uh that we're going to have our next tropical system depression storm or otherwise develop in the far Southwestern Gulf of Mexico Bay of campiche basically um you know south and east of Monterey and north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula uh the forecast the steering of whatever develops you know where does it go it's pretty complicated we have an area of high pressure to the east we have an area of blow pressure trying to develop separate from this one kind of sitting over Texas and both of those will help to steer this system but exact placement and strength of these two features in addition to the system itself what has forecast become Francine uh will be a dependent on uh you know the strength of that system and then the other factors that we were just talking about that are that are in play so let's go through a more likely scenario and this is again just one run a one forecast model but but just shows you the general idea we have a lot of moisture it's still raining in Savannah it's still raining in the coastal Empire in Georgia uh it's still you know relatively cloudy making Point South even though we're blessed with brilliant Sunshine nice weather up here in Atlanta now that stall front is contributing to the N year weather along the Texas coast I 10 Corridor Point South and into North Florida Coastal Georgia that's going to slowly back up to the north and this is that area of low pressure uh as we get into here let let's bring it back here for you this is the area of low pressure whatever it becomes forecast to be spinning likely to be spinning somewhere here as we get into tomorrow evening by that point could be a tropical depression could be tropical storm Fran scene meanwhile we have a weak little trough kind of moseying back into the state of Texas we have a you know kind of hard to tell here but even some ridging off to the to the South and in the Western Caribbean uh that is you know clockwise flow this is counterclockwise flow in General so there could be a little bit of wind sheer and not that they're negating each other necessarily these two factors are still um helping to provide uh steering flow you know wherever this goes and of course the stronger the system gets the more likely it is to be impacted by these two uh forces and and also you know we have a general kind of weakness along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines that could give this system an easier path into those coastlines from Monday evening we're going into Tuesday and notice how again whatever this becomes forecast impact more directly the Texas and Louisiana coastlines specific landfall point and exactly what this becomes not the point of this particular graphic because that is still uncertain what is the point is that whatever this becomes you know wherever it goes we're going to have a lot of tropical moisture spreading into the uh into the deep south and eventually the southeast and even if it goes into Texas even if it goes into Mississippi a lot of moisture spreading into the South and Southeast at the same time another little front trying to work its way back into the area as well that will help to produce uh uh quite a bit of rain may not be torrential rain may not include severe weather uh but nonetheless big increases in the chances of rain as we get into the new uh work week the end of the work week I should say and on into the new uh weekend hence the First Alert weather days for Thursday and for Friday again we'll we'll pull that back up for you this is what those variables in the forecast this is how they kind of spell out in the actual 7day forecast a Wednesday move in initially you know high level clouds wispy clouds but you notice maybe a difference in the sky Thursday Friday First Solar weather days deeper tropical moisture may move into North Georgia likely already dealing with storms and Rain well to our West and well to our Southwest across the Midsouth but for us it's a Thursday Friday could linger into Saturday sort of rain chance here it may not rain that entire 48 to you know at most 72h hour period but I do think there will be periods of rain and I think that rain has the potential to be heavy and there is the potential for a few severe thunderstorms uh as you typically would expect with you know a weakening tropical system or or system that used to be tropical but may not uh be tropical you know completely any longer um but those are more contingent as far as North Georgia Metro Atlanta is concerned those impacts are more contingent on exactly what this becomes number one and exactly where it goes a number two but regardless of those factors matter where it goes what it becomes a general increase in the chance of wet weather for Friday Night Lights for your Thursday and commutes for Friday afternoon and evening after work you know catch up with friend plans those are going to be uh increasing the odds there could be some impacts and again that's because the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms will be increasing we have quite a few people watching on YouTube I do apologize though uh not seeing any comments coming in we ran into this issue yesterday it's being transparent here we're working to resolve that issue but a reminder you can text any othera questions comments concerns to us WF the last four digits those are the probably the hardest to remember that's 9263 so the full number and me go and just pop this up for you on the screen and I'm going to give it a moment again you text us our platform that we use allows us to see your your pictures your images your videos or your just your your text questions a clarification that you may need on the forecast and all you have to do is text 4707772280 f as we uh track the increasing rain chances Thursday and Friday no early evening newscast coming up this uh this evening normally would have a 6:30 newscast On Any Given Sunday evening but because we are CBS affiliate we're preempted by Sports this evening uh so Now's the Time to get any clarification and that's what's nice about Atlanta news first plus as well streaming on so many platforms but we can go more in depth we can have a two-way conversation and help clarify the forecast for you and and give you answers that maybe you couldn't at surface level at least get if you were just watching us on on TV of course always working to provide a very uh thorough and in-depth and easy to understand forecast but now on this platform and in this way by texting us for example uh that's an even better way to get that clarification on the forecast so seven minutes in 17 minutes in should say going to go ahead and switch back over to the 7day forecast and now that we've had that number up for a while may get a few uh questions coming in and uh YouTube is also a place you can ask questions but if you're a streamer right now and you asked a question and maybe you haven't heard back from me that's because we've had a little bit of trouble uh some changes in YouTube getting comments your comments uh to show up so we're going to be watching the stream yes and we know that people are watching but uh I don't have the ability to really answer any questions on YouTube until after the video posts and then I can go back and I can just comment in on YouTube and answer those questions kind of after the fact still giving you that clarification but perhaps the the quickest way to get your uh questions answer would be to just simply text us 4707772280 in Atlanta 70 or warmer and Atlanta is typically one of our warmest spots the bigger impact of the work week and really the entirety of that 7A forast will be Thursday and Friday rain chances tied in big part to an area of stormin right now located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico uh the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of storming you can see all those yellows oranges Reds that's not radar that is estimated you know Cloud temperature so to speak so basically just know the deeper the heads the taller the colder those Cloud tops so lots of very tall shower and thunderstorm clouds around this area below pressure right now in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico we also to further complicate the scenario what we have going on a stalled front across the northern Gulf of Mexico kind of extending back into Texas that is also providing lift to the atmosphere getting showers and thunderstorms to nearly constantly kind of percolate over very warm Gulf of Mexico and we actually have the remnant of an area of low pressure another one basically up here that is working its way Southward meanwhile an area of low pressure that drifted out of the Western Caribbean probably saw First Alert uh Chief met Jennifer Valdez talking about this one has drifted northwestward into the Bay of campee in these two areas of very separate areas of low pressure mind you along with a generally favorable environment for nearly constant showers and thunderstorms over very warm ocean waters with relatively low wind shear you know this time of year you keep storminess going over the Gulf of Mexico for long enough it's going to be hard not to get some to spin up out of this and it's looking more and more likely that we are going to get our next name system in the Western and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the days to come within the next 48 hours a 90% chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm forms pretty much all options still on the table depression storm could eventually become hurricane next name on the list is prene uh you know where does this go keep in mind this is not a forecast path but sometimes when you look at these formation polygons and all this means is that anywhere Within red polygon when you see a map like this red means likely chance and anywhere within this likely you know chance area this polygon this shaded red area we could have our next system forming could be here could be up here could be here you know it really just depends but you get the gist that whatever does develop is initially going to be moving more northward and at some point taking a more North Northeast or Northeast Bend but those specifics are are still not really certain at all we don't even have an name system yet we don't have a tropical system and until we do we're not going to start to get any sort of you know real momentum uh going in forecast confidence here so uh something to watch for sure but there's still a lot of uncertainty in that forecast that's kind of why you need to watch now as far as more significant or severe impacts really a northern Mexico Coastline Texas Coastline Louisiana Coastline something to watch the Exact Track the exact strength of the system doesn't really necessarily have much of a sway on on whether we get rain or not we're we're pretty confident matter what this becomes we're going to see increasing rain chances as we get into the Thursday Friday time period now where Exact Track and exact strength come into play is if we see Heavy Rain across North Georgia and Metro Atlanta do we see severe weather some of that risk uh moving into our neck of the woods Metro Atlanta and North Georgia is weting to Win Thursday and Friday should say now those two variables those two aspects of the forecast are a little more contingent on exactly what this becomes and where it goes but we know regardless rain chances are going to be increasing especially Western half of the area as we go into Thursday and Friday hence the First Alert weather day just giving you that extra heads up that First Alert that hey changes are on the way we have Friday Night Lights we have football games now decently two three four games in the football season in some areas across North Georgia it's a Friday night so many folks have plans and we have those Thursday Friday morning and evening commutes it could be perfectly sunny and still be messy around Metro Atlanta with those commutes so weather uh could be a little bit more inclement for your routine your day-to-day activities as we get into Thursday Friday hints uh the First Alert weather days again nothing to be worried over here in North Georgia and Metro Atlanta but this is going to be a system to watch as we go through the work week and one way that you can stay with us probably the easiest for folks that are on the go maybe you can't get in front of the TV the First Alert weather app if you don't have it all you have to do is search Atlanta news first or First Alert weather in your app at Google Play Store also on our website you know we have several QR codes links to download stuff like that um and I have those some of those links posted on my social media accounts as well you will get forecast video updates like the one and I know this is far away from the camera but the one up at the top of your screen uh kind of detailing similar to how we're doing right here on this Atlanta news first plus stream uh detailing the aspects to the forecast what we're certain of what we're still watching out for and maybe a little more uncertain of in the forecast you can get those videos again for free with a little buzz to your phone in the First Alert weather app if you don't have it just search Atlanta news first or First Alert whether in your app or Google Play store again folks are still watching on YouTube unfortunately I cannot see comments on YouTube and we're working to get this resolved as soon as possible but you can text us uh 470-7770 stream so we will be streaming Atlanta news first Plus at 8:00 p.m. once again and I'll be seeing if we did get any text messages questions that maybe I missed during this stream or maybe you didn't think of a question until after we're always checking this text line whether it be you know images or videos that you're sending us letting us know what you're seing during severe weather you just need clarification on the forecast or if you need to report local breaking news you can do all of that uh to this single number right here and again we will be uh keeping you updated watching that thread I'm going to go back to the YouTube stream after this uh stream wraps up and uh see if we do have any comments questions that came in and we will of course uh I'll I'll answer those after the facts so do want to thank you for tuning in and for watching on this Sunday afternoon get outside and enjoy it it is absolutely stunning outside hopefully you are able to get outside this evening and enjoy it no weather wo no weather worries this afternoon this evening nor Monday nor Tuesday Wednesday looking fine as well but bigger changes Thursday and Friday both First Alert weather days with the potential for some widespread soaking rain back in the forecast just something two days at the First Alert weather team's going to be watching and and helping to uh help you plan around so we'll keep you updated next stream at 8 pm. no early evening newscast if you can't catch the 800m stream uh we are on once again on Atlanta news first on pach Street TV Atlanta CW affiliate that's at 10 pm and then we are back on Atlanta news first WF CBS affiliate here in Atlanta at 11:00 p.m. for the late news news we will have an update likely to the forecast some new data coming in between now and 11:00 p.m. so stay tuned we'll also put those updates in the First Alert weather app have a great evening