PRIZEPICKS NFL TODAY - EAGLES VS PACKERS BEST PLAYS

Eagles versus Packers I have a nice six-man for you guys as well as a fourman for those you want to take it a little bit safer but first let's recap last night's picks so this first one here full correlation stack ended up not going in the right direction but it was actually closer than it looks right here this touchdown prop here for Lamar Jackson could have actually hit if that connected with Z flowers here which would have also cashed this prop here would have went three in one potentially an ulti where Travis Keli maybe could have got those yards realistically not so overall this slip did not go according to the game script and as for the slip I gave out in the video two nights ago we did cash on the two tennis props as I showed in last night's video but the Mahomes and Kelsey stack did hit but technically in the wrong direction here we went for the over over with the pass attempts and the receiving targets Unfortunately they both went under despite the value we got on Kelsey he was pretty much a goal so long with Mark Andrews last night and the fact that the chiefs were up the majority of the game is going to take away those pass attempts from momes that being said let's get on to the board I'm going to be building a full game stack between the NFL game tonight as well as a forat that's also going to include some NFL some soccer and some MLB so let's start off with the six-man so the six-man slip we're going to build is going to be quite similar to the one I did in last night's video we have a very similar game state that we had in the game last night minus two spread towards the Eagles so this should be a tight game an even higher total than the game last night so it should be very back and forth which means we're expecting touchdowns this game and to be specific we're expecting at least three for each of these teams right if the Eagles are getting three touchdowns we expect the Packers to bounce back with three touchdowns too so we're going to go over to this Rush plus receiving touchdowns prop on the combo one the best one right here is going to be the devant Smith and Jaden red we're going with the over here and we can go over to the AO dashboard and check the value on this I've done all the math in the back end and we're spitting out a minus 119 Fair odds or a 5434 per chance that this combo prop goes over now we're basing this on the probability that Jaden Reed is going to get a touchdown as well as the probability that Devonte Smith is going to get a touchdown and we're combining these two together to get that higher win percentage and like I explained in the last night's video there's probably an even higher than a 54% chance that these guys cash together because touchdowns are are going to be correlated if Green Bay is getting a touchdown we're expecting Philly to bounce back so we're going for Smith on that over touchdown assuming that Reed was not the one who got the touchdown for the Packers and the beauty of this combo is Smith is basically the second most likely to get a receiving touchdown right behind AJ Brown on the Eagles and jayen Reed is probably tied with most likeliness to get a touchdown other than Watson so if these teams do end up getting three touchdowns each it's very likely that one of these guys are going to cash now I'm also going to throw in this combo prop right here we got AJ Brown and a Wix on the over half a rush Plus receiving touchdown this is going to make a lot of sense when I throw in the third po but just for now like I said AJ Brown is the most likely person to get a receiving touchdown on the Eagles Wix is of course not very likely to get a touchdown in comparison to the other guys on the Packers but for both of these to cash you could see a scenario where Jaden Reed is getting a touchdown AJ Brown is bouncing back with that receiving touchdown and you cashing both of these but even better is when you combine this with the passing touchdowns prop Jaylen Herz on the over one and a half demon prop I normally advise against demons but guys this is so corly ated with these two props right here and you're going to see at the end we get a very nice Boost from throwing in Jaylen Herz and it's not that unlikely for Jaylen Herz to get over one and a half passing touchdowns I checked the odds across multiple Sports books about plus 105 or plus 110 which basically means about a 45% chance that he goes over this passing touchdowns prop combined that with the fact that we have two touchdown props that have both of his main targets well then you have some very nice correlation here if Jaylen Herz is getting two passing touchdowns it's very very likely that either brown or Smith is going to be on the other side of a touchdown and maybe it ends up being both of them so gets two touchdowns one to brown one to Smith and that's excluding the fact that Jaden Reed and Wix could also get a touchdown to cat either of these props so absolutely beautiful correlation there next we're going to go over to the fantasy score prop and we're going to take Jordan love on his over 17 and a half now this prop is good for a multitude of reasons the first one is that it is a back and forth game lots of passing guards are expected we're also expecting a lot of touchdowns especially with the game script that we already have when we combine these three guys together now for a QB to get final Square the best way is to get passing touchdowns Jordan love is very likely to get at least two passing touchdowns you know that cuz he's a goblin prop at 1 and a half passing touchdowns I could technically throw this in but it's going to greatly reduce our payout so I'd rather go for the fantasy score that's going to give us a full nice 28x payout as I'll show you at the end so for the fantasy scoring specifically for QBs you're basically getting one point per 25 yards you throw as we know Jordan love is projected about 256 yards let's see he does get 250 yards on the lower end which would realistically be way more if this game script were to pan out because he would have to throw a lot to catch up with he touched Downs that Jaylen Herz is getting that would net him 10 fantasy score right away and as I said his passing touchdowns is also likely so let's say he does get two passing touchdowns that's going to net him another four for each of those passing touchdowns that sends him to 18 now that's nice and all we're at 18 already but you have to consider that he's probably going to throw an interception he is more likely to than not he's atus 140 throw an interception or less likely he could also fumble the ball but let's see he does get a minus one from either an interception or he fumbles loss so now we' be back at 17 fantasy score to get the rest of the fantasy score since we're only at 7 we'd go with the rushing yards he's probably going to get around 6 to eight rushing yards giving him another 6 to8 which would put him at 17.6 to 17.8 still above that 17 and a half fantasy score and remember we undervalued his passing yards we said he's only going to get 250 if he even gets 260 or even 275 which is very realistic in a game script like this where Jaylen Herz is getting two passing touchdowns well then that's a very nice cash on Jordan love fantasy score now on top of that for all this to work we need at least two passing touchdowns for Jordan love well then that's absolutely perfect we have Wix and Jaden Reed in these receiving touchdowns props does end up throwing two touchdowns it's very likely that Jaden Reed or Wix is going to be on the other side of at least one of those touchdowns so you can see how this is all coming together you're looking for a shootout game you're looking for passing touchdowns even if the passing touchdowns for one specific team is not going to the targets that we need like Wix and jayen Reed maybe jayen Herz is the one actually throwing to Brown and Smith so these combo props are very op especially when you're combining them up with the passing touchdowns for each of the QBs now we're not done just yet we're going to throw in two more props that are going to make sense with this this game script and that next one is going to be Josh Jacobs on his under 16 and half Rush attempts now I already like this prop on his own he's set at 16 an underdog he's also minus 130 juice on various Sports books so the under is already the lean but the under is even more of the lean when you add it to this game script here if we're expecting a lot of passing and passing touchdowns well that means we're probably going to have less Rush attempts especially if Green Bay is the one playing from behind they're going to have to match those passing touchdowns less Rush attempts for Josh Jacobs pretty simple to understand the correlation between these four players with Josh Jacobs under Rush attempts and to finalize it if we're expect in a lot of touchdowns what are we not expecting field goals we're going to go over to Jake Elliot to grab his under one and a half field goals made for Jaylen Herz to cash it's over one and half passing touchdowns there's probably going to be at least three touchdowns within the game because you also have to consider that Jaylen heris could probably get a touchdown himself as well as saquin Barkley two players who are pretty likely to get rushing touchdowns so if he's actually getting the one and a half passing touchdowns it's very unlikely that they're going to be kicking field goals here so we're going to tie us all up with the under one and a half field goals made and I like JK leot too because the under is juic it's aboutus 125 unar Sports books and this is going to pay a nice 27x if you get 6 out of six and a 3X if you get five out of six and normally the payouts are 25x and 2x so we do get that boost from this demon prop as well as all the beautiful correlation which is not being reduced here this is what I like to call a nice offense script in this Green Bay versus Philly game now that slips a bit crazy if you want something a little bit more tame a nice little 10x we're only going need to hit four props we're going to go over to the pass attempts prop and we're going to have Jaylen Herz on his over 32 and a half pass attempts and we're going to be correlating this with his main taret Target that's going to be AJ Brown on the over 8 and a half saw what I did with Kelsey and Mahomes pretty similar concept hopefully this time they both go over together now this stack I'm not exaggerating is probably the best one in the NFL and what I mean by that is when Jaylen Herz is going over his pass attempts AJ Brown is also going to be going over his pass attempts and vice versa and that will happen very very often I don't have the exact set on me but I'm pretty sure when I was stacking these guys last season it was something like 12 out of 13 games they went within the same direction which effectively means if you were combining these guys in slips all last season you're basically hitting two props for the price of one assuming you got the direction right but the reason I like the over snight is Jaylen Herz does have juice towards the over on multiple Sports books I see DraftKings at Min - 125 I see Caesars at minus 120 and the rest are kind of flat but there's a slight over lean towards Jaylen Herz but the real over lean is on AJ Brown at 8 and a half targets we could compare this line over to Underdog and you'll notice that he is at nine targets here so we're getting half a target of value which is absolutely massive and his 5 and a half perceptions is actually juice towards the over about likeus 130 depending on what sports pick you're seeing we're expecting AJ Brown to get at least six receptions tonight and he catches about 67% of his targets meaning if he is getting nine targets he is expected to get six receptions so it's right in line with a receptions prop but the reason I'm not going with receptions is because pass attempts is more correlated with targets of course than it is with receptions Herz doesn't even have to complete these passes for AJ Brown to go over those targets and you'll also notice AJ Brown is getting nine targets that is clearing almost 30% of jayen herdz pass attempts line alone that's excluding all the other pass he's going to be giving out to dvon Smith Dallas and all the other players on the team so beautiful stack there I absolutely love it but now we're going to go over to soccer so we get a perfect 10x on the slip and we're grabbing Allison Becker on the under half a goal allowed It's Brazil versus Ecuador and this is just a straight juice place if we go over to Pinnacle in this Brazil versus Ecuador game you see that they're over half a goal is+ 112 their under half a goal is minus 131 obviously if they're going under half a goal well then Allison is not conceding a goal so he is staying under so the juice is towards the under here minus 131 112 essentially converts to a 54.6% chance that Allison stays under that half a goal allow tonight and lastly we're going to over to MLB and end it off with everyone's favorite player we're going to sh Otani on the over one and a half hits runs RBI now I know people love jamming Otani overs every chance they can get tonight is actually pretty good value he did not hit last game versus the Angels but I looked at some odds and DraftKings has him atus 140 Caesars has him atus 135 we also have him at- 140 on Bas that's another nice prop that's probably hitting at about a 54% chance and then you have these two guys basically a two for one special here in reality we're looking for three props to hit if you really want to think about it that way and you're getting that perfect 10 xpay out that is going to be the two slips for tonight guys good luck