Players SKYROCKETING up Fantasy ADP vs Players FREE-FALLING

Market Monday for the final time this summer we are here for Market Monday really appreciate everyone who has listened to these episodes each Monday over the last few months been a great exercise for me I think to understand who's moving why how I want to handle it hope you guys got some value out of it and enjoyed these Riser 1 shows first up is Terry mclen Terry McClaren up four spots to 51 overall on DraftKings also up three spots to 49 overall on Underdog this is of course Rel relateded to last week's Jan doson trade which left the commanders with really a bunch of dust behind McClaren the target competition is now something like Zack Herz dami Brown Alami zakus Luke mcaffrey Austin Eckler so yeah of course we gave a bump in mcclaren's Target share in the wake of the trade but I think the question is has the market gone too far here here now on underdog mclen is now going ahead of donin Cade Mark Andrews Christian Kirk Xavier Worthy on Underdog I'm sorry on DraftKings he's now going ahead of concade Pickins Andrews worthy Christian Kirk and I honestly am not too comfortable with that for a few reasons first I think jadden Daniels will be fine as a thrower but I'm far from certain there I I mean I'm far far more confident that Caleb Williams will win as a thrower right away second on mclen we have Cliff kingsberry here you know Evans talked about how cliff in my opinion the king of the fake Sharps has used mclen in the preseason you know just lining him up on one side making him run all his Rats from the same spot I mean this guy is the author of the horizontal raid I just have zero confidence that Cliff is going to put his positions in his players in the best positions to win and yeah you know Terry's been a very good player but he's never gone over 12200 yards in a season TD rates have been poor and now he'll turn 29 in a couple weeks so I don't want to go nuts and change all my priors on Terry McClaren just because Jan doson is gone I actually think Zack ZZ and Ben sinet will be bigger beneficiaries of the Dotson trade and hopefully Luke mcaffrey later in the season as well second Riser Riser 2 I wanted to mention was Raheem moer up four spots to 87 overall on underdog no surprise here as more people who are actually having the sex have been drafting lately running backs are generally climbing and also just guys who scored 21 touchdowns last season they're going to climb as well I the thing is like I kind of agree with these more recent drafters on moster to some extent it's really tough to get there on projection with moster because he's 32 years old hn is so outrageous they drafted Jaylen wri they have to get get a ton of targets to Tyreek and Jaylen Wadd but I I do think that moster will open the season as the quote unquote starter for the Dolphins and if you're starting for Mike McDaniel our King the best schemer this side of Kyle Shanahan if you have a real role then I'm interested especially when you're going in the eighth or ninth round of a touchdown heavy sight like underdog now obviously most's touchdown rate will take a massive hit clearly he's a favor to be injured this season but a ton of that is baked in at Cost definitely a tougher sell way tougher sell for me on DraftKings but on underdog if I need running back help in that spot I'm willing to reach above our rank a little bit on most of them third Riser 3 Riser is Jaylen Tolbert up six and a half spots to 166 overall on underdog now this has been a crazy ADP move on Jaylen Tolbert when I first started drafting back in late may I was taking an insane amount of Tolbert I was up at 50% at some point but then his price got out of hand I mean right now I only have 11% Tolbert but I have an average pick of 2116 which I think is an important point because when people talk about exposures I don't really care how much someone has of xuy I don't care how much you have of jayen Tolbert but I do want to know what price you have them at you know I would have loved to have more than 11% Jaylen Tober this year but I was never chasing him up the board 50 spots 30 spots 40 spots so I just naturally get my exposure hacked down because the market agreed with me and it honestly I kind of think went overboard and so you know back to Tolbert specifically Cowboys wanted him to win the wide receiver 3 job it appears he's clearly won the wide receiver 3 job the Cowboys want to be very pass heavy Dak Prescott is underrated slash very good but let's be honest I mean tobert played behind M Michael Gallup a lot last year and Gallup has since retired tolbert's underlying stats have not been great in his two NFL seasons since being a round three pick out of South Alabama you know can he turn a corner can he become better in his third NFL season certainly you know I I think the opportunity will be there but I have serious doubts if Jaylen Tolbert is good enough to pay off at a 14th round ADP so at this point I've only been taking him as part of Dak Prescott teams first Faller Jaylen Warren down Faller 1 5.4 spots to 92 overall on underdog stems from the hamstring injury Warren sustained during preseason week one initial reports after that had Jaylen Warren out four to six weeks on Wednesday Warren told reporters that he fully expects to play week one you know the hamstring is not that big of a deal and look I get that players are almost always overly optimistic on their own injuries but still I'd consider Warren having a real chance to play in week one against the Falcons on September 8th which kind of makes the ADP gap between Warren and Nagi a hair too wide for me right now before the injury they were going extremely close to each other now Warren is down at 92 overall Nai is at 81 I still think Jaylen Warren is the more explosive back the one more likely to play on Pass Downs but I've certainly cooled on Warren generally you know entering the season with a hamstring pull isn't ideal and this do Arthur Smith I mean he has naagi Cordell Patterson Justin field all at his disposal to run the football I just have no faith that art is going to do the right thing when it comes to evaluating his internal talent and I do think Naji is like the kind of guy that fantasy people don't like but coaches do especially coaches like R so you know I still think the gap between these two running backs is too wide but my Warren exposure has really been sinking because I haven't bought the dip here you know I just haven't been buying the dip so I still have 16% Warren which is a little scary to me right now 14% Naji Harris but they're going to have so much volume running I still think it's okay but I'm just getting a little worried that we're going back down the same Arthur Smith path speaking of the Steelers and Arthur Faller 2 Smith George pickin's down six spots to 56 overall on DraftKings I've talked a few times on the show about why I'm mostly out on pickings at his cost but now his cost is changing significantly for no real reason this Brandon iuk trade you know with all due respect to Pretty Ricky or whoever I just don't think it's happening so now our rank is getting closer our ranking of pickings is getting closer to his ADP we're at 50th overall on Underdog ADP has sunk down to 47 we're at 54th overall on Pickins on DraftKings his ADP there is actually 56 now I was in a DraftKings 555 the other day Pickin slipped to 65 overall and I took him you know just just a fine bet at that price despite all the concerns about I I have concerns about his profile and Arthur Smith and quarterback play I I just don't really understand why the market has suddenly cooled on Pickins out of nowhere I actually asked our team if I miss something it just seems like the iuk rumors spooked to everyone or maybe people are waking up and realizing Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator here and Russell Wilson is the quarterback I certainly don't want to build a big Pickin position but yeah in the 60s I'm I'm going to take the best price on him all that's ideally the way we get all of our players at the cheapest price I think I have like 3% total on pickings right now but hopefully all at really good prices last Faller 3 Faller is Michael Pitman down 1.1 spots to 37 overall Pitman just such a tough one for me being the first read on these rpos that Shane styken is going to have Anthony Richardson Run it's so valuable but a as a thrower I mean just a ton of risk a ton of volatility a Rich running for touchdowns isn't great for Michael Pitman a rich scrambling isn't great for passing volume Ed Mitchell has impressed ever since the Josh DS injury DS will be back at some point he was having a strong camp and on Pitman I I don't think he's some freak Talent he he's solid he's not spectacular so yeah I'm a little uncomfortable I just don't want to extrapolate last year stats out I personally prefer rasid rice T Higgins Steph Diggs over Pitman right now in that range I will say that we've looked at Michael Pitman and checked it and the data really does like Pitman my take on him right now is more of like a Vibes based take I think the range of outcomes on Anthony Richardson and the way this offense goes is just really wide considering how high Pitman goes so it's more of just a gut based take which I don't think is always the right way to play Fantasy Football but sometimes IB you know sometimes I know better should have trademarked that by the way all right that is going to do it for the final Market Monday of the 2024 summer but this podcast is not over of course in fact we will have free shows all through the season and that includes next week stay tuned to next Monday or Tuesday I'm going to do a solo pod outlining all of our plans also will take your questions be sure you are subscribed on iTunes or YouTube this show is indeed free and we have a ton coming up I appreciate you all so much to all the loyal Market Monday listeners four producer Luke for editor Jackson for the most beautiful beast in the world Jerry I am Adam good luck everybody