Grade 3 West Virginia Governor's Stakes | August 4, 2024

[Music] hi everybody danman Ashley Mayu taking a look at the co-feature on Sunday at Mountaineer Park it's West Virginia Derby Day and race number seven is the grade three West Virginia Governor's Cup let's take a look at this field of older horses getting set to go a mile in his 16th eighth entered Brad Cox has the favorite in the West Virginia Derby he has the morning line favorite in the Governor's Cup and that's the number eight hit show who is making only his third start of the year a little bit of a disappointing performance however last time out at Prairie Meadows yeah certainly disappointing obviously went all favored in the eyes of the betting public but never really got running um it looked like he was sort of under a ride early in the race and just never was able to make an impact I thought his return to the races off the extended layoff was a very good one and maybe there's always the conversation do you regress or do you take a step forward Maybe he was in the the camp of that he regressed there but I think this is a good spot for him to regroup and I think on paper um maybe there's one or other two horses that could you know pressure him in here but he does look very very tough looks like he might get a good Pace set up as well here's the time for us Pace projector extra Neo figures to show speed from the inside the number four kabino omo should also show speed and play chicken is a horse that has shown big early speed against weaker competition so there's a chance this pace heats up that helps a horse like hit show that helps a horse like the six roses Pino who's going to be a giant price Giant price and really needs that pace to unfold in front of him but hey he's been able to close in his last two especially last time out on the pace wasn't all that hot but it was up fingerl so getting back to Mountaineer um you know I I think from here the pace is going to be honest in this event we've talked about a couple of horses being forward and you cannot Overlook The Four's last dirt effort uh even two starts back back on the derf I mean this horse has been very forward in some very quick races it seems that just as when Steve as M gets extra Neo going a layoff sort of puts him back to square one he won his career debut in really good form with a 92 buyer then he went to the sidelines he only raced three times at three one was a solid effort in only his fourth lifetime start finishing fourth in the Haskell then another long layoff he looked good in his four-year-old debut I think he can give him excuse last time Al because he just sort of got cooked on the lead yeah he did get cooked on the lead and it's interesting to look at it though when it was all said and done I think too part of it is there's a little bit more pressure I think he's a little bit more keen even in comparison to his race two back going seven Ace the big thing with him I feel like he's had a good race and then he follows it up with maybe a so so race and and and vice versa but I do think there's some upside third start off the layoff for him I thought his return was very impressive and I don't mind him finally getting back around two turns when you look at those last two efforts obviously both one turn efforts I think he's going to benefit from the additional turn heroic move is the number two we're going to go back to his race two starts back this is the Steve seon mile at lonar Park and heroic move finally got a graded Stakes Victory he swings to the outside and he shows off his stamina in the last three 16s by grinding down these two horses up front including odds on favor touch upon a star I talked to robertino diodoro uh earlier today about his subsequent race the Corn Husker handicap he was very disappointed he said no excuses he does feel the pace could set up well for this horse and I think when you look at the Corn Husker as a whole pretty deep grade three event overall um and comparison to what he's going to face here he's going to get some local Runners and I think from a shipping perspective anything close to the race that we showed at lonar he could be very very tough especially if that speed unfolds in front of him he's another one though you can see he wins he has an okay performance he gets the miners and back and forth and that's sort of been the story at least for him in 2024 now but I do wonder if he's going to be able to make a run like he did at lonar because we talked about those horses being towards the front he was able to get to them in those final jumps one of the local hopes in here is the three discretionary day coming off a gate to wire performance but in a condition claiming race going 3/4 of a mile an off Turf race to boot not sure discretionary day is fast enough to get to the lead and I'm not sure how he classes up with these horses I'm not sure either um obviously the last effort was over the mud it was sprinting now he's to stretch back out in distance and um I don't think it bodess well from him at least from the standpoint of the last time he went a mile or more on the dirt at Mountaineer play chicken was almost 11 lengths in front of him he's goingon to have to face that rival again so a little tough for me to make a case for him when his stable made his finish in Fr here's a fascinating entrance to number four K Rabino omo this is a horse who started three times as a 2-year-old he's a Japanese Breed by California Chrome who's raced exclusively in North America didn't do much last year as a three-year-old deodor told me this horse really grew up physically mentally he's not completely there yet he said but he sure look good winning this race at lonar a now winners of three life event two starts back he went to the front and he never gave this field a chance he extends the margin wins by almost 14 and most importantly perhaps from a handicapping stand point he popped a 103 buyer that certainly is what stands out you look at that first and then you look at how easy he wins and he just pours it on here a very impressive performance and I feel like when he's been good his wins have been massive he's won by open lengths in each of his three career wins and um you know the other thing too is two of his wins have been at the six very long distance at least at lonar he finally got to go long again his only other time going long on the dirt was over a sloppy Racetrack and he seemed like he chased the pace he had a ton of trouble in there and just kind of backed out and said he was done for the day so um interesting to see him that that win though was against nons of fre life he's never been really tested I will say he followed it up with a pretty good third on the grass considering it was his first time on the grass and I don't know necessarily from a pedigree perspective if I thought grass was the right move for him it was an interesting spot to be sure now he's back on the dirt theodoro does say he's a little bit immature and sometimes he pulls hard he's cutting the blinkers back ever so slow slightly just to try to get him to relax in this race he'll be forwardly placed the five is tempo this horse is shipping in from Southern California where he was competing in claiming races and he wasn't having a lot of success in those races so this is kind of an interesting spot off a two-month layoff yeah tough to say I mean these connections do get a lot of horses from out west whether it be California Arizona and they do well with them but to me this feels like a lot too soon and a horse that his win his most recent win came at the $10,000 claiming level um it'd be different if he was in tougher spots maybe in California could maybe map a path where he gets bigger than a share here but um I have a tough time seeing that the six roses Pino is an honest New York bread he's won a third of his 27 lifetime starts interestingly enough he has the fastest time for us late Pace rating and he's coming into this race in good form after kicking down a field of Stak breed allowance hes at fingerlakes this is a big step up in class his first ever Stakes race yeah huge step up in class and you can go down the page and see some horses that he faced even at Mountaineer that are all right ok coner sunset's been a decent horse especially at the allowance ranks but um you know this is a horse prior you could have claimed for 4,000 and he's certainly been shown that he's worth more than that especially with his winds as of late uh one of them being at fingerlakes I just don't see a situation where the speed is going to come back to him he's a deep closer anything the horses on here that are forward um they've proven themselves to be competitive at a higher level and that they continue to go while on front the seven Play Chickens one of those Southern California Imports to West Virginia that you mentioned Train by Silva and he only won his first five starts at mountainer by a combined a zillion lengths before they tried him on Turf last time out maybe that's just not his surface so he loves life on dirt at Mountaineer as evidenced by this race now again this is a $4,000 starter allowance washed off of the turf on a very sloppy track but you just don't win as easy as this whether he can do this against better horses in a faster paced scenario who knows he's going to be a huge price and he's won a three in here for the connections right for Juan Pablo Silva and I think out of the three he's certainly the best of the three with the way that he's just crushed his competition but you've said it's at that level what will he do now he's five for five at Mountaineer I will say um in those last two dirt races he's been very sharp out of the gate I still don't think um he's necessarily the fastest horse here on paper but I do think with that sharpness and that Tactical sort of early foot of his he's going to be forward we saw that he should be pretty forward in the pace projections and I think for the connections their best shot hit show is the number eight and in some ways he is the horse to beat he really began his three-year-old campaign in super form for Brad Cox winning the withers just missing in the wood Memorial and then he's thrown to the wolves and two legs of the Triple Crown in the Jim Dandy maybe the Oklahoma Derby was One race too many after that grinding Triple Crown Trail I like the way he came back off of the layoff his Corn Husker was not good but in Mountaineer Park you can run with Lasix and maybe that's what makes this spot so appealing for hitch show yeah and it's tough when you look at the Corn Husker in terms of red route one we know his move he closes from off of it unload was the pay Setter was good enough to hang on for second and veloor was third but disqualified right it was a sort of a trip where the horse was mid pack so to me the the race played out Fair um he's one that just bounced in that race and we talked about maybe it was just such a good effort off the long layoff that he took a step back could he certainly regroup here I think so and I think this is a great spot where they're still getting a Grade Three race but he's getting a lot of local horses um you know to me on the outside he's probably the horse to beat let's take a look at our top selections for the West Virginia governor Stakes we're both going to go with hit show hoping he can rebound to his form from last year and even his race two starts back I think this race will set up very well for him from a pace standpoint absolutely I think the pace is going to be perfect for him I think we've seen even in that win at Churchill that he can be a little bit more forward so I think he's going to have no issues I like that he's drawn to the outside in here and um you know outside of him I think we have the same idea a little bit of a different order I think those are the three logicals to use underneath 8142 for Ashley 8412 for me it's race 7 at Mountaineer on West Virginia Derby Sunday the West Virginia Governor's Cup best of luck