The Real Reason You're Not Winning Your Fantasy Football League

Intro what's going on guys it's Nick here back with another video today we're going over the biggest reason why people do not win their Fantasy Football Championships yes you need to fully take your scoring format into account you Target Ceiling need to understand how your roster settings are going to impact value you need to play the 8p game as much as possible to get as much value as you can and you need a little bit of luck as well but I would say like 60 to 70 maybe 75% of your league mates are already going to do that and so you can certainly gain Edge by being smart when you draft but that's not enough to really elevate your chance of winning the championship the reason it seems like people in your league just get lucky more often is because they're putting theirselves in position to dominate when they do get lucky if you draft Trevor Lawrence this season then you might get lucky right you might run into the best season of his career but in doing so you're still only going to land a mid to lowend quarterback one which return slightly better than streaming value but not enough to make a true difference Brock pie last season was a quarterback 20 by ADP finished eth that's amazing value right but teams that drafted him and then kept him over the entire season actually saw a 1% lower Championship rate than average CJ Stout was the same way kind of unfair to include his championship numbers cuz he got hurt in the playoffs so we're going to throw that out but even being drafted 27th and finishing 10th in points per game he increased playoff rate by 2% who are the real League winners the people who actually made a difference in winning a championship Josh Allen Lamar Jackson Jaylen Herz they boost a championship rate by 62% 58% and 46% respectively and it wasn't just last season in 2022 only four quarterbacks boosted Championship rate Herz momes Allen and burrow they finished first second third and fourth in points per game so I know it'll feel really nice if you go out there you draft Trevor Lawrence he hits the ceiling that you think that he has he finishes what seventh eighth ninth in points per game but in all likelihood that would either have a neutral or a negative impact to your Championship rate and it's not just the quarterback position take a look at running back four true League winners at the running back position last season zamir white because people picked him up for free right before the playoffs started everyone was starting him he goes as a running back eight in the fantasy playoffs of course if you get the running back eight for free right before the playoffs that's going to boost Championship right but when we look at the other three it's mcaffrey it's Karen Williams and it's Bree Hall a wide receiver League winners were lamb puka Alan rosan Brown Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans at tight end really just laporta but maybe you could throw Evan Ingram in there as well basically if you don't finish as a top 10 skill player or a top five quarterback then the only other way you're going to be a League winner is if you know you pull a zamir white right you provide low-end running back one value in the fantasy playoffs for free right so if that's the case you know if everyone besides League winners are basically just fillers even players who have pretty decent seasons are really only providing a very marginal positive or negative impact to your team and it truly just is you know like 10 to 12 League winners that really are the reason why people win if that's the case then why would we not be targeting League winners with every single Le pick why would you play it safe and draft a player that you're pretty sure will return value or you're pretty sure will exceed value but you know they don't have the ceiling to be a top five top seven running back top five top seven wide receiver a top three quarterback if they're not going to win you anything the best that's going to happen is that they're just a filler they don't positively or negatively impact your team but you're just losing an opportunity to draft someone who will we can't be the Arthur Smith a fantasy manager here right someone who would rather squeak into the playoffs and then just get absolutely annihilated instead of maybe missing the Playoffs maybe taking on a little bit more risk but opening up a path to having a super team thus greatly increasing your odds of actually winning a championship which is really all that matters so today I'm going to go over my pick for what I think the biggest potential League winner is at each position these players absolutely all have lower floors but they also have a path to being someone that could singlehandedly increase your chance of winning a championship by 50 or 60% and you know what if they happen to bust you have the waiver wire you have a bench you have the trade market we're in the first inning when we have our fantasy drafts right when we leave the fantasy draft we're in the first inning I would rather strike out in the first inning knowing I have multiple more at bats if it means that I'm opening myself up to hitting a grand slam and really putting myself ahead from the jump so now that we all have our upside caps on who should we be going after each position we'll start off with running back where my pick for the biggest League winner is Devon Anan Anan has a DeVon Achane chance to have just like a peak Chris Johnson season like getting him in the second round in 100% of drafts right so this is not someone who ever squeaks into round one occasionally you can get him in round three I saw one of the subscribers Post in the Discord got him in the late third round in a HomeTown League the other day that value is absolutely insane he led all running backs by a mile in percent of snaps lined up as a wide receiver last season we always talk about that right it's like ooh you know in practice they're lining them up in the slot and then it basically never happens running backs never actually line up in the slot line up a wide receiver unless they're Devon hent unless you're on the Miami Dolphins where they're like oh wait this actually makes a ton of sense to put this kid out there who's got extreme speed and if we do get him the ball downfield he's a running back as well they did it last season the Snaps are going to go up this preseason they featured him in the receiving game when he played he didn't play a ton because they didn't need him to play a ton but when he was out there he was featured in the receiving game people's biggest argument against aan is the efficiency but it's wild because that's like the biggest argument for him that's his biggest bull cas fantasy points looked at um all the players who had just like insanely efficient rookie seasons in terms of fantasy points overexp expected that's a metric we look at a lot of time especially with the trade video in season we're trying to figure out who's getting lucky who's getting unlucky right if you have way more um actual fantasy points than what you're expected you're being highly efficient maybe at times like okay maybe that player is getting a little bit lucky maybe they're going to reduce you know their their fantasy points per game opposite end it's like okay this person's getting extreme volume but they're not doing anything with it maybe luck wolf turn in their favor but we have to be careful because it's like typically good players get lucky in fantasy points over expectation bad players get unlucky many times you've got these insanely efficient players right they're just really good at football or they're in extraordinarily good situations and the study found that 100% of running backs that that were in a Chan's bucket of efficiency saw significant increases to their volume in year 2 which makes sense right when you're averaging 7.8 yards per carry possessing 99th percentile speed it's a pretty easy decision to give a player like that a couple more touches per game right and when I say that you know people are like okay injuries right if he gets more touches he get injured sure but what would you rather him have eight touches per game like we to draft an entire team of people who are getting eight to 10 touches being like no one's going to get hurt but it's like okay but no one's doing anything either people have looked at this like mcaffrey like oh well I can't go after mcaffrey gets all these touches he might get hurt he gets all these touches you want mcaffrey it's okay taking on that injury risk for someone who's going to get a ton of touches and be highly efficient with them cuz sure they could get hurt but if they don't they're going to absolutely break fantasy scoring I think that's the case with hn this season he has 2,000 yards 20 touchdowns in his range of outcomes I don't think people are prepared for how involved he'll be in the receiving game and if you do out projections he doesn't need to have that many touches like it's not like we even need to project him for like half of the carries like if you project him for like 40% of the team's carries he's dropping a nuke if you project him for like a nine or 10% Target share he's dropping a nuke like it's it's not that hard to get there with Devon Anan in his projection and what if he actually does get half the carries what if he actually does go out there and have an 11 12% Target share he can rack up those yards if they use him at all in the Red Zone this season he could be the one not moster getting 20 touchdowns I like moster I like Jaylen Wright we still need to recognize that moster is 32 years old Jaylen Wright is a rookie and remember like hn doesn't need 25 touches per game to have a top three season he was the running back four in points per game last season despite having over 20 touches one time over 12 touches three times he could be the running back one overall on less than 20 touches per game which is absolutely mind-boggling amazing pick in round two and if you can get him in round three even better our Cooper Kupp second League winner is Cooper cup cup was the wide receiver one by a mile in 2021 he commanded 191 targets came down with 145 receptions 1947 yards 16 touchdowns then he was on Pace to again be a League winner for the second year in a row in 2022 on Pace for 153 receptions this time 1728 yards 13 touchdowns has high ankle sprain probably could have returned late in the season but they stunk Stafford was also hurt and they're like why would we bring you back we're not going to make the playoffs anyways then last season wasn't healthy at any point he got hurt in the pre-season he had other injuries in season at no point last season was he 100% And even close to 100% really I mean McVey has talked a lot about how like people truly don't understand how injured he was for the entire season he still had seven plus receptions and over 110 yards in four of 12 games while being injured the whole time he commanded eight targets per game when healthy Cooper cup has been the most valuable player across all positions in fantasy over the last couple Seasons yet he doesn't go in either of the first two rounds in any redraft platform because people are convinced he's going to get injured or that puka is going to take too much work and don't get me wrong I love puka he's very clearly a great wide receiver he did not go off last season just because Cooper cup was injured he like you have to be a good wide receiver to have the best rookie season ever right you still have to have some level of talent and he's obviously a good wide receiver but are you telling me there are 15 wide receivers that are better than Cooper cup or how about this you're telling me there are 15 wide receivers that have a better chance of finishing as the wide receiver one overall in Cooper Cup who's done so in two of the last three years on a per game basis I do not think that is the case moving a little bit later our third League winner is Dalton K Kate Dalton Kincaid 50% of Titan breakouts happen from a year to tight end it's a very difficult position to learn that's why we talk all the time about rookie tight ends being like I know I know we like them right I know this guy is athletic I know the situation is great it's difficult to have a monster season as a rookie I think Sam leapor last season is probably going to throw that back a little bit people be like oh well Sam lorta did it's like yeah he had the best season ever for a rookie tight end it's still very difficult to do so and that's why we see such a big jump from Year One into year two for tight ends and when you can find a second-year tight end who's an amazing athlete coming off a great rookie season on a great offense with relatively minimal Target competition you should be going after them in fantasy the bills have an almost unbelievable like you have to like double check it and be like really it's that many 317 targets from last season that are no longer on the roster even if they lean more run heavy that is still a ton of targets to make up who's going to be making them up Curtis Samuel who's going into year eight and has only once had over 97 targets that he's commanded khil Shakir who's having a good camp right but he's not really an outside wide receiver so he'll mostly play in the slot I know he got some snaps on the outside but he's not truly an outside wide receiver most of that is not coming into wide receiver sets again having a good camp but I need to see it with K shur these actually going to command a like consistent Target share Marquez Valdes scantling Matt Collins probably don't need to tell you that they won't be commanding very many targets they're going to be in the wind Sprint roll deep downfield and then Keon Coleman who they're going to have out there every snap they want to develop but his biggest problem is that he's not ready like he's not like like he's ready to to have a role and then probably to have a red zone role and to you know get targets and be their ex to start the season but he's not ready in terms of like commanding targets getting open on his own it's going to take time for him to develop so then you have dton concade who's coming off the fourth most receptions ever for rookie tight end who's been the focal point of the passing offense over the summer who had a massive first team snaper in the preseason he's going to be out there for all the snaps he can handle and he's going to be used the wide receiver we always talk about that for tight end being like oh he's basically just a wide receiver many times it's like oh we're talking about that like mik aeki being like he's basically a receiver but it's like he's also not that good right dalon con Kade is actually a very good tight end that they'll throw out there into the slot and to create these like huge mismatches that's going to be awesome right then you think about it the kicker really for me for Kade is over 55% of the Red Zone targets are gone from last season if you combine Curtis Samuel khil Shakir Marquez Valdes scantling and mat Collins you get 51 receiving touchdowns across 39 19 games that is a 17we pace of 2.8 touchdowns these are not players who command Targets in the Red Zone they're just simply not and so you've got Keon Coleman but Dalton K Kate is going to have a huge Red Zone share and that is all that held him back last season he didn't have that many fantasy points because he scored like two touchdowns to go along with a ton of receptions this year he could get both he could have a hundred receptions along with double digigit touchdowns all wrapped in a round five price tag at the minimum like the earliest he's going is round five absolutely on board with that Anthony Richardson then finally at quarterback if you've been watching the channel at all this summer then you probably know who's coming here Anthony Richardson with no Jonathan Taylor no ad Mitchell and as a 21-year-old rookie he averaged 29.9 fantasy points per four quarters then he got hurt so no one thinks he can stay healthy right because we've not seen it right people only look at what we have seen people are injury-prone if that's the only thing we have people can't possibly get injured if it's the only thing we've seen even if it's only for one season but you know what other quarterbacks got hurt last season Aaron roders Kurt Cousins CJ Stroud Justin Herbert Daniel Jones Jimmy G Kenny picket deshun Watson Joe burrow uh Gino Smith Matthew Stafford like that's a pretty big list in a lot of that list is pocket passing quarterbacks who you wouldn't even hesitate and be like oh yeah they're not gonna be injury-prone half the NFL got injured last season it's a dangerous sport anyone can get injured and while Richardson is objectively more likely to get injured I'm not arguing that he's more likely to get injured because of his play style the upside makes it worth it he's the single most athletic quarterback in the history of the NFL and he's paired with the head coach and Shane siton who was behind the Justin Herbert breakout season as a rookie the Jaylen Herz year 2 breakout if you remember back to those years these were not locked in prospects there were people who liked them but a lot of people who didn't as well definitely not the prospects we consider them today very few people actually belied Jaylen Herz was going to be as good as he is and then Justin Herbert was about to be playing behind Tyrod Taylor before the trainer like punctured his lung in week two and even last season right it's not like mchu was that amazing but when you lose your starting quarterback your star running back your wide receiver too and they all get injured you're leaning on Gardner menu backups to get things done it's pretty impressive when they basically came One play away from the playoff they were still the 11th highest scoring team in the league that is fantastic coaching and that's what the Colts have and when you pair fantastic coaching with elevated play volume Jonathan Taylor being back ad Mitchell helping on the outside Downs being back at some point and likely you know helping more than he did last season we're thinking maybe like a month into the season he'll be a little bit more helpful you add that to a quarterback who could legitimately run for 15 17 touchdowns this season has a cannon of an arm that he is more than willing to use you unlock a ceiling that could not only be top three but one that could break fantasy scoring even last season right the these top end quarterbacks provided a significant Edge over all these like you know secondary quarterbacks and by secondary I mean like low-end quarterback one's a huge Edge obviously over the quarterback twos you you had that in the season where quarterback scoring wasn't like crazy high there is a world where you know the the quarterback 2 quarterback 3 scored 22 23 24 points per game and Anthony Richardson scores 27 or 28 and you're gaining this insane Edge over everyone and I know it's a small sample but like that's actually all we've seen from Anthony Richardson he currently leads all quarterbacks in NFL history in fantasy points for four quarters he leads the NFL last season in fantasy points per drop back he did as a 21y old rookie with his weapons injured like the upside is obvious he's probably not going to score 30 fantasy points per game but if he scored 2627 I wouldn't be surprised at all that is the cheat code that rushing is in fantasy and when you've got the most athletic quarterback in NFL history running the ball he's going to score touchdowns he's going to bust off a few 40 50 yard runs this season that produces a ceiling that we're really looking for if we're trying to win a championship so those are my Outro picks for the biggest League winner at each position if you want me exact rankings on every single player you can see on my website theant football advice.com I know a lot of you are drafting this weekend so I highly recommend you check out the must draft players article on the site and if you're going to an in-person draft you can either use the custom rankings if you want to use your laptop crossplayers off as you go I know a lot of people like doing that or you can print off the cheat sheet that's going to give you you know like a more condensed version of everything you can cross off the names uh with the pen and paper I know that's old school but that's the way I do it for the indraft leagues as well so good luck to everyone this weekend I'll be back with four more offseason videos Friday Saturday Sunday Monday and that's it that's it for the offseason two more videos after that for week one probably coming out Wednesday and Sunday so if you watch this far be sure to leave a like really helps me out and then why not subscribe as well if you're new to the channel it is completely free that my friends is the end of this one and thanks for watching