Middle Round Wide Receiver Targets - 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

Intro what's going on guys it's Nick here back with another video it's Thursday it's time for another player breakdown video your most voted on breakdown last week was actually five players Chris Godwin Christian Kirk Terry mclen Deontay Johnson and Calvin Ridley it is a huge group of players going in a Range that we really want to be targeting wide receivers specifically so I definitely understand why you guys want those five ranks so we'll look at those five today in half BPR scoring if you want to see my full rankings for every player in all scoring formats you can actually see that for free this season all you got to do sign up for your first Underdog account using promo code FFA make a minimum $10 deposit they'll add a 50% deposit bonus up to $1,000 and you'll get access to my rankings both Underdog and redraft email to the following morning you'll be able to enter some fantasy football drafts with your deposit plus the bonus I recommend personally three puppy drafts I think it's the best payout structure they're all $5 drafts enter three of those put 10 bucks in they'll turn to 15 enter three drafts win-win for everyone and you get the rankings again including redraft so without further Ado start off Chris Godwin with Chris cofin so we're basically just going to break down each one of these wide receivers and then at the end of the breakdown for each one we're going to like slowly construct the rankings by the fifth one we'll have all five so of course Godwin will be first on the list after his breakdown but obviously have to break him down first so he enters his eighth season the NFL but he's a very young rookie so he's only turning or has turned 28 in February so still in the primary career uh don't worry about age for any of these receivers they kind have varying ages but all of them are in the prime of their careers don't worry about an age Cliff for anyone uh he's coming off his third straight season with at least 80 receptions and over a th000 yards but it's been the touchdowns that have really held him back in fantasy scoring over the last three years he's had only five three and two touchdowns last year despite playing right he wasn't injured he played 14 15 and 17 games so like I mean small injuries here and there but it's not like he hasn't scored touchdowns CU he's only been playing six or eight games in a season two touchdowns in 17 weeks last season in fact we want to look at how unlucky he's gone Godwin has the nth most Red Zone targets and the eighth most targets inside the 10 yard line among all players over the last three seasons but he ranks 58th in receiving touchdowns among the 15 players with at least 24 targets inside the 10 yard line over the last three years which again Garden ranks eth with 30 only two of those 15 have scored less than 20 receiving touchdowns Godwin only has 10 he's been unbelievably unlucky with touchdowns and that's what's held back his points per game which hasn't even been that bad he's ranked 9th 20th and then 38th last season that's why last season was you know he's 30 fth off boards right now that's why cuz he was 38th last year and not top 25 if he you know had decent touchdown luck been another top 25 performance he'd be going as a top 25 wide receiver this season cherry on top of all this uh new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen he was the old offensive coord for the Rams in 2022 he said that Godwin is going back into the slot and he's going to play the Cooper cup role Godwin is being drafted very very close to his floor this season I talk about that so often and how you like d risk a team we still want League winners and I think Godwin can be a League winner he's on my must draft list on the website this season but what's also good is we combine that with someone who's being drafted super close to the worst case outcome because even if we're wrong Godwin doesn't see touchdown luck he doesn't have an improved season getting increased efficiency from the slot while also still playing on the outside in two wide receiver sets even if all that happens and he doesn't have a great year he's like barely going to underperform where you're getting him in drafts again he's a phenomenal pick he makes the must draft list on my website and he's first cuz he's the only wide receiver we talked about so far next up Christian Christian Kirk Kirk uh entering his seventh season turning 28 in November um only has one season with over 80 receptions or over, yards though it would have been two last year had he not gotten injured big change this season is going to be the Jaguars losing Calvin Ridley and Z Jones replacing them with Brian Thomas Jr and Gabe G Davis I've made my thoughts on Gabe Davis known um I don't think he's very good I think people just continually overrate how good he is Josh Allen is a phenomenal quarterback a good deep ball quarterback someone who will get you the football if you are open and Gabe was still highly inefficient on that team so I just don't think Gabe is that good um but I do think Brian Thomas Jr will obviously need time to develop right he's not going to be the best version of himself as a rookie but I think he's going to add a really nice deep ball element to this offense that they sort of miscast Ridley into last season we'll kind of get to Ridley in a second um but that wasn't like exactly how they should have used Ridley they just kind of needed to use him in that area I think Brian Thomas Jr actually will fill a very important role in this offense and was for them a very good pick because he's just going to like be a consistent deep threat a boundary receiver that they just kind of needed in how they're running their offense my worries with Christian Kirk are twofold one I don't know that he's going to play in two wide receiver sets or at least all of them right I think it's extraordinarily likely that at least to some degree we see a lot of two wide receiver sets that are only Gabe and Brian Thomas Jr on the outside second um he's got this calf injury that you know they're going to hold him out for what seems like this next week he's not going to play in the preseason game it seems minor um it's very likely this turns into absolutely nothing but it's just a concern it's something in the back of our minds of like like okay he's got an injury that is going to hold him out for a week it is a calf which is something that you know limits explosiveness that can definitely be reinjured and so it's just a worry in the back of our minds um again maybe you're watching this the week after it goes out maybe you're watching this um the week of like um basically the week before the season starts and he's already back to practice he's going to be fine throw the part out it's just something that right now if we're drafting it's something to keep in mind but my main worry is really more the snaps like he's been producing decently cuz he's out there you know 80 90% of snaps but if that drops because he's playing mostly in 11 personnel and when they move in 12 Personnel he's just not on the field as much obviously you can only score so many fantasy points if your snaps go down right like so even if he's coming up the field more on run plays there are still times where they go play action still times where they don't run the ball in those formations and he's not on the field he can't score fantasy points I also think things are far less condensed than people kind of assume in Jacksonville Brian Thomas Jr Kirk Gabe Ingram eten it's not the strongest five in the league but it's a very strong core of five skill players and as much as you're going to want to throw up when you hear this tank bsby Parker Washington they have objectively made strides forward this off season they are going to be used more than they were last season and Parker Washington Washton specifically will get some slot usage and so they will actually be able to have some 11 personnel even potentially where Kirk isn't on the field now I still think Kirk's a starter I don't think he's getting benched or anything but we're just opening up a few more paths this season to where they don't need to have him out there 90% of the time he could very easily drop down to having a lot more games at like 65 70% of snaps and it's just slightly concerning now to me he's still a relatively safe pick because I do still think he's the best wide receiver on this team I just think he's one that kind of lacks ceiling his best season ever was 18th in points per game and to be honest like what he did two years ago in that best season is probably the best case scenario outcome for him this season which is like still a good outcome for him if you take him in the middle rounds you'd still be very pleased with him getting 18 points per game but it does feel like his ceiling and at this point of the draft I mean we're about to talk about five wide receivers four others that I love that I think have extraordinarily High ceilings this season who also just like Christian Kirk does have a pretty decent floor if you're ceiling is that you're a lowend wide receiver too I don't know I'm not in love with this so I at least right now I'm going to rank Christian Kirk behind Chris Godwin I think my stance on Kirk is probably going to surprise people I just think there are just a lot of different outcomes to where we can look at a lot of people among these five where they are clearly the number one on their team or they clearly have a ceiling would it surprise you at all if Evan Ingram had more reception than Chris Kirk no would it surprise you at all if Brian Thomas Jr steps up in his first season sees a huge downfield role and he out produces Christian Kirk in fantasy no especially if we add in uh touchdowns which is probably going to be his area would we be shocked if tank bsby plus etn just allows them to run the ball a little bit more often utilize the running backs a little bit more heavily cuz they had to scale back a little bit NN last season because bsby was so bad if bsby is not bad anymore then maybe they can utilize running backx more and it's like there's just so many things in this offense and it's not like I think the Jaguars are a top five offense in the NFL I don't truly believe in Trevor Lawrence being you know a really a real game changer I guess at the quarterback position I don't know I I have worries with Christian Kirk and so definitely behind Chris godman for me and as you can tell he's probably going to be towards the bottom of our list next up Terry mclen Terry McLaurin um I'm going to save a little bit of suspense here I do think m lawren first on this list now I think it's close for everyone and I genuinely believe if you get to the end of this entire breakdown and you want to jump things around do it right I'm just giving my take my opinion if you think differently and you're like no Nick I truly believe Chris Godwin should be first I truly believe that M Lauren is capped go for it right to me though I think he deserves to be first four straight Seasons with at least 77 or receptions and a th000 yards like with Chris Godwin though struggled a little bit with touchdowns unlike Godwin though he's actually done really well overall with his usage so godwins has has extreme usage hasn't done amazing in the Red Zone M Lauren's done great in the Red Zone with his usage it's just that he hasn't had a lot of usage in the Red Zone because they're obviously not that great of a team historically main thing holding muren back in recent seasons has just been quarterback play Alex Smith Dwayne H Haskins Kyle Allen uh Taylor hinei Garrett Gilbert Carson Wentz Sam how and jacobe brette those are the quarterbacks he's been playing with that's a pile of absolute garbage I know that Jane Daniels is a rookie but there's for sure a chance that like while he needs time to develop and he's not going to be you know the best version of himself in this first season kind of like Brian Thomas Jr like all these rookies they're not going to max out in year one probably still going to be the best quarterback even this season that muren has played with uh muren has basically said as much in Camp that like even in Camp he was already basically these are the best targets muren has been receiving um main appeal with muren is the potential Target share he is Far and Away the best wide receiver that they have uh Jan doson had a lot of hype coming into the league had a decent rookie season but a terrible year to has not been separating from dami Brown who's we know Tomy Brown is capped he's not that good of a player we look at last season and it still is a little bit shocking how low the target share was from M Lauren but that could just be a Sam Howell thing that could be a quarterback thing a coaching thing like that doesn't mean that Terry mclen is not clearly the best wide receiver on this team he is clearly their best wide receiver and I absolutely think there's a chance that Jane Daniels who's again probably the best quarterback he's played with recognizes that a little bit more and kind of hper focuses on mclen to where we look back at this and we're like oh yeah with like you know SS a rookie tight end with kind of trash wide receiv receivers behind him yeah muren clearly had the upside to have a 25% Target share last season you know somewhat disappointing because the target share again was lower but then also he weirdly saw both his yards perception and his catch rate drop like usually those are inversely correlated so when you have consistent career you know those numbers kind of stabilize maybe you have a year where yard's perception increases but that's cuz you're getting more deep looks so catch rate drops other flip side maybe catch rate increases but it's because everything's coming close to line of scrimmage Ys perception drops usually they kind of go like that they don't usually both drop to pretty poor numbers that's what happened last season again because they had really bad quarterback play he only had a 30% catch rate on his deep targets cuz the target stunk right like again I truly believe Daniels is going to be much more ACC in the quarterbacks mclen has been playing with so when you combine that with a cliff Kingsbury offense and a bad defense we're going to run into a lot of games where we get into really high volume as per ETR the commanders have been 20th 22nd and then 31st last season in situation neutral pace of play they were 18th last season for perspective in plays per game as an NFL head coach Cliff Kingsbury's offenses are the fastest paced in the NFL no team in the NFL is going to run no huddle at a higher rate then you look at the preseason no team played faster than the commander so again you combine that all with a poor defense leading to trailing game scripts elevated passing rates it's pretty easy to see a lot of games this season where play volume is going to Skyrocket and so if M Lauren is clearly their top wide receiver on potentially the fastest Pac team in the league with probably the best quarterback play had in his career he's set up for a really really strong season he's an exceptional wide receiver that is always underrated because of quarterback play again I just think he deserves to be first on this list so muren then Godwin then Christian Kirk what about the final two Deontay is Diontae Johnson up next and what do you know uh he's also entering an improved situation might not seem like that joining the Panthers you're like no Nick the Panthers were worse than uh the Steelers last season sure but he steps in as the clear X wide receiver in Dave Canalis offense which is something that we love um we just know Deontay is good another wide receiver that is just always underrated by the community he ranks top four in ESPN's open score four of the last five years Matt Harmon over reception perception he charred him with an all green route tree last season cleared the eighth percentile versus Man Zone press coverage Elite versus double teams Deonte is an incredible wide receiver one of the best in the league especially at gaining separation and he really doesn't have any Target competition he's got a 34 year-old Adam thielen um Mingo has been outplaying Legette in Camp and Mingo was awful last season people have said mingo's been better and maybe that's true but he hasn't looked very good in the preseason if he's also out playing Legette how good is Legette going to be Deontay what 27 28% Target shares in his range of outcomes this season like do I think it's going to be that high on average probably not but we're looking at a player who has a very strong chance of clearing a 25% Target share even last season with a much worse offensive coordinator at 33 years old Adam theum was the wide receiver 11 through week 11 and then he kind of fell off because he's 33 years old in the second half of the season of course he's going to fall off again that was with a worst offensive coordinator that was with Bryce young doing horrible as a rookie that was with the Panthers scoring 13.9 points per game they still supported their number one wide receiver being the wide receiver 11 overall a low-end wide receiver one through week 11 Dave Canalis is a great coach who was behind Gino Smith's breakout in 2022 Baker Mayfield's breakout in 2023 two seasons where we can look back right now and be like oh yeah Baker's fine Gino's fine that not in those Seasons right we were looking in 2022 being like is Drew lock going to beat out Gino Smith is Gino Smith even competent then he had a great year Baker Mayfield last season like well can he really support Godwin and Evans he's not very good he had a really strong year the best season of his career as well so I'm really excited to see what Canalis can do with Bryce young who was again the number one overall pick last season he's a very high-end prospect that I don't think people should completely write off play volume touchdowns those are going to be a much larger concern still for the Panthers than you know these teams that we've kind of talked about so far and that's why I don't think I can rank Deontay first but I do think he deserves to sit like right above Chris Godwin in our rankings so far as second on the list he is very clearly their number one target very clearly their best player in the passing game and so even on a lower volume offense a slower paced offense a lower scoring offense I genuinely think he's capable of racking up 1105 receptions this season that is not something anyone else on this list can say I can't put him over Terry McLaren because the commanders are going to destroy the Panthers in play volume like it's not even going to be remotely close and so if their target shares or anything even close to similar muren is going to have more value and I do think he's the number one on this list but I think it is M Lauren then Deontay then Godwin then Christian Kirk so that leaves us with only our fifth wide receiver Calvin Ridley enters his sixth Calvin Ridley season in the NFL but because he was an old rookie and he got suspended for a season he's actually turning 30 in December um again I don't think age is a concern for anyone on this list but if you were to assign it to anyone you would assign it to Calvin Ridley in his return last season though 76 receptions over a th000 yards eight touchdowns Jaguars really just misused him they used him as a boundary X receiver they didn't scheme him any layup routes they forced him to earn every single yard that he got and he did a good job but it's just difficult to post high in numbers as a b ex receiver deep down field everything you get is not schemed it is all earned this year you've got the Titans giving him a 4year $92 million deal $50 million fully guaranteed as a comparison it's a very similar deal the the year is a little bit different but if you just look at the overall structure of the deals very similar to Nico Collins Michael Pitman Jr and dvon Smith the deals that those three got are extraordinarily similar when you look at guaranteed money you look at perear money you look at what they can do in terms of like um outs in the contracts all very very similar so the Titans are heavily invested in Calvin Ridley this is also going to be a way different offense than we're used to seeing for Tennessee um the Titans ranked 31st in situation neutral pace of play Under Mike Rael last six years compare that to Brian Callahan who they now have obviously he was the uh Bank Les offensive coordinator the Bengals R second in situation neutral pace of play so they're going from a bottom three team in situation neutral pace so on average they play Slow very slow to a team that's probably going to be top three the Titans were also a very runhe heavy team under Vel that's going to shift they're going to be a very pass heavy team now so what you expect to see from the Titans is going to look completely different from what they actually looked like this season the one big hurdle is the unknown with will Lev will Levis ranked 24th in EPA per Dr b as a rookie he was dead last in completion rate over expectation we simply just don't know if Will Levis can be a good quarterback our current evidence is that he is not a good quarterback if Will Levis does step up it could be a big year for Ridley and he could end up being a steel but again we know that there's definitely a chance that Levis really just isn't that good at all and just kind of caps everyone's ceiling on this offense now I get that you could say the exact same thing about Bryce young Bryce young was terrible as a rookie last season but Levis was also like we didn't expect him to be good right he was a much worse Prospect so it's like he comes in being like yeah like maybe he's good but probably not then he wasn't and it's like yeah that kind of makes sense we didn't think he was going to be amazing we thought Bryce young you know definitely there was some variance to how much people liked him but he was still a really high-end Prospect and I don't think anyone expected him to be as bad as he was last year so I think the overall expectations is that he's going to get better I don't know what the expectation is that will Levis is going to get better I also just have more faith in Canalis fixing young than I do Callahan fixing Levis I mean Callahan's been working with Joe burrow you don't have to fix Joe burrow he's Joe burrow right Dave Canalis has actually fixed quarterbacks that no one thought was any good that had just been kind of like working their way as backups around the league and then became really competent starters so I just think there's just a little bit more upside in price young and I think most people can agree with that I do want to say though that like Ridley's good right but so is DeAndre Hopkins when healthy and while Hopkins isn't fully healthy right now he probably will be either by week one or week two and we just know that like Hopkins is a target earner that maybe he's at the tail end of his career but he's a great wide receiver he's going to command a solid Target share and so some people on this list have the upside to clearly be the number one Target on their team I mean we don't we don't actually know if Ridley's even going to be the most valuable wide receiver on the Titans and we don't even know if the Titans can Elevate to what we think that they can be because of will l so ultimately I can't definitely rank Ridley over mck Lauren and Deontay Johnson um I just think the ceiling of those two is a little bit too high and just the fact that they are clearly the number one pass catchers on their offense it's too much upside there um and then I also just think the ceiling of Chris Godwin moving back into the slot um in this Cooper cup role in this offense I think that's also a little bit too high to ignore so I think I'm going to rank Ridley right after him so final rankings are going to be Terry mclen Deontay Johnson Chris Godwin Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk but I will say if we are looking at like hyperfocusing considering ADP as well on specific wide receivers in the middle rounds Deontay Johnson Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley those are amazing targets I truly believe that if you're heavily focusing on those three they're great values by ADP you will be able to land one or two of them in most drafts and I think you should be targeting wide receiver in that range and especially those three so Outro that is how I would break down these five and a half PPR scoring again if you want to see my exact rankings in all scoring formats among all players plus my detailed projections as well see that my website the fantasy football advice.com and remember the under Underdog deal you can get my rankings for free this season all you have to do is sign up your promo code FFA make a minimum $10 deposit that's 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