Predicting the Next Breakout TE 1! | 9 League Winning Tight Ends

Intro what's going on guys it's Nick here back with another video today we're taking a look at the later rounds trying to predict who could be this year's Sam leaport a tight end drafted in the double digit rounds that finishes as a top three tight end in points per game 3 Criteria I'm not just going to limit the search to only rookie tight ends by the way because it'd be a pretty short video we'd basically only talk about Brock Bower so what are the sorts of things that we are looking for for a breakout tight end just to kind of help us narrow down this search first criteria going to seem pretty obvious but it's OB obviously very important and that is you need playing time you can't exactly score fantasy points on the sidelines and so we need to draft sleepers you know under the assumption that they can be playing a lot on the field they have a high ceiling for their snaps you're going to need around 80 receptions or maybe like get really lucky in touchdowns to pull off a season like leaport had and so if you're not a full-time player it's going to be really really difficult for you to do that and again I know it seems kind of obvious but it's something you need to heavily consider for younger tight ends especially we can get overzealous at times you know with players that we like uh maybe predicting a little bit of a higher ceiling than they have in their young careers you know if players are just not going to be on the field more than 60% of the time they need to get Super Lucky to a high-end season over the last seven years the average snap share rank of a top three tight end is sixth the average route participation rank is 5 and a half no tight end over the last 7 years has finished top three in points per game on less than a 76% snap share and only grank in 2021 finished top three on less than a 73% route participation so basically unless you're rob gronowski you better be top 10 in route share across all tight ends in the league if you want to finish top three in scoring so that needs to be in our back of our mind can the players that were drafting this late actually finish top 10 in route share among tight ends we also need them to be on a good offense over the last seven years if we look at the tight end one in points per game their offense has ranked 4.5 in points per game so around fourth or fifth best offense in the league the tight end 2 has ranked 9 .1 tight end 3 has been 14.4 so you can see you know how offenses can get a little bit worse as you know tight end scoring goes down but no top three tight end came on a team that was ranked worse than 22nd points per game so we basically just need to eliminate any team that you think is going to finish bottom 10 in scoring you probably just shouldn't draft a tight end from that team because again no tight end in the last seven years has finished in the top three in half PPR points per game and been on a bottom 10 offense in overall points per game so we have to avoid the bad offenses and then finally you need them to be a good athlete Zack ZZ was the worst athlete to finish top three in scoring in half PPR points per game over the last seven years and he was still a top 50% athlete so if you are not a top 50% athlete you are just probably not going to get it done and finish the top three tight end so we for sure need top 50% athleticism but ideally we're looking for top 10% 67% of the top three tight ends in the last seven years have ranked inside the top 10% in athleticism score so knowing all of this we need the routes we need the offense and we need athleticism who makes the cut who is also being drafted in double- digit rounds because obviously you know the best picks at tight ends are are hitting on all these three but we know that and so they're going to cost you a lot more the value in Sam leor last season was cuz in many leagues he was going in like 10 11 12 that like General range and redraft he was going in that range and then he finished depending on the format first or second in points per game so that's a huge Edge as opposed to taking someone in round three like leor this season Lea this season as y did last year it's not going to be nearly as valuable because you have to take him in round three so given that only looking My List at players in a double digit round ADP going in order of ADP for the list right now we have T.J hackinson Cole kment Luke Musgrave and then by extension Tucker craft later on in drafts uh Tyler Conlin chika cono Noah Fant jonu Smith and Mike giki everyone I just listed has at least a chance of hitting on all three we should understand that they're really aren't any that are all locked to hit on all three because they would be going in the single digit round so that's the list here's how I would rank them and then just kind of like a quick breakdown on them uh from most likely to have a top three season points per game to least likely among that list at least in my opinion first up T.J hackinson uh TJ Hockenson he was third in points per game last year so right off the bat we know like he's obviously capable of it he of course had the knee injury had the torn ACL last season has surgery this offseason to recover from that we're starting up camps I believe it came out like a few seconds ago that he will be put on the um like the injury L he's not going to start Camp healthy we we knew he was never going to start Camp healthy the odds are in my opinion right now which let's be honest shouldn't matter to you too much just given the things that I have read about his recovery seems pretty unlikely he starts season healthy but he's going to play the season right he's maybe going to miss the first month or or so maybe is slowly integrated after that but when we're talking about points per game we're talking about someone who last season was third we've already seen it from him I think it's pretty obvious he should be first on this list uh he is a top 11% athlete so also that helps coming off of an injury like this whenever we see recoveries from ACL injuries it's are you younger than 26 or are you a freak athlete hackinson is a very highend athlete so we should expect him to recover from the injury um pretty much no chance the Vikings are a bottom 10 offense once healthy he will have an elite snap snapshare so again I think it's pretty obvious that he's a top one on this list um it's just that you don't know right he's going a little bit later in the double digit rounds because we don't know if it did come out he's like not going to start the season on the pup he's going to you know play in week one you're not going to get him in double digit round so on something like Underdog with the ambiguity right now it is probably a sharp time to draft him but uh if he's going to go this late he obviously you know has the upside to be top three after hackinson I think the Packers TE's next most likely is Luke Musgrave or Tyler craft Luke would be first he would be the most likely but everything you can say about Luke you can honestly say about Tucker craft so I still maintain they shouldn't be going as far apart at least on Underdog right now I think the adps are around like 143 144 from Musgrave and then Tucker craft goes closer to like 210 again I think that should be squeezed a little bit but for those of you redraft leagues I mean typically your last quarterback is going to be in the Luke Musgrave range anyway so there actually isn't a gap because it's basically like your last pick for both of them so again you'd still lean Luke musra if you're redraft league but both of them are plus athletes both of them are on the same team right the same great Packers offense uh they're not going to be a bottom 10 offense um they're both probably going to fall short in snapshare and rout share but we include them both because if one of them were to get injured we're going to see a significant boost in playing time like I'm not even kidding like if one of them gets hurt you'll see the other one playing 95% of snaps they will be like top five in route share and then when you think about that you're like oh okay so one injury to either one of these two makes the other one top five in route share on an elite offense and an above average athlete we're sitting here being like Oh all of a sudden we have someone who if that had happened you know before the season started they'd be a single digit round pick but you can get both of them a little bit later so it adds the upside there I probably in a redraft league would want to like double dip like basically honestly for everyone else in this list besides even Hawkinson really I would actually say everyone on this list in a redraft league you probably want to be double dipping you probably don't want to take either one of them solo but give yourself Two Shots right see what happens in week one if you think that like maybe someone later in this list you think they're going to break out but you watch the snap share and it's like 50% and you're like oh okay I mean that's just just is not going to cut it right you you can cut those players much more easily for um the players who kind of break out early in the season and I would say definitely with these two it's like you kind of know the snapshare is going to be kind of lower so maybe make this one the one you don't panic on and cut them it really is the upside here comes from an injury because like you think about the Packers offense right they have four great wide receivers a fifth wide receiver they want to get onto the field they really like both of these tight ends like they love their running backs they're going to utilize both in the receiving game like they just have so many people that I just don't see it happening without an injury but if an injury and they get one of these guys playing 95% of the snaps we could definitely have a lot of upside this season for either one of them after those two I'd say it's no a Fant he is Noah Fant the 12th most athletic tight end of all time but his downfall has been like a combination of mediocre offenses and then just like a lack of playing time uh and we've kind of overhyped him at times especially like you know when you mooved to Seattle we were like okay you know they traded for him we know he's athletic this team's not going to be terrible and he's going to play a ton but but then we see like dley and Parkinson getting all these snaps and we're like what the heck right they had 56 targets last season both of them are gone though uh Seattle actually has the sixth most tight end vacated targets for tight end of any team so there's a lot of opportunity um they've only filled it with pharoh brown AJ Barner and Brady Russell so it's another season where we're like it should be no a fan right he should be getting a lot of snaps will he they'll probably pull something to where it's annoyingly low but um they should be playing faster they should be throwing the ball more he should get more snaps he's super athletic they're not going to be bottom 10 so everything is you know kind of looking in his favor uh but again yeah last season you know 57% last two seasons 57% 56% of dropbacks he was running routon that's not enough he can't be a top three tight end if it's that low so we'll see probably pretty early in the season if he goes out there in week one it's 58% we're going to be like great another season of a bus from no Fant but if he goes out there and he has like you know 85% of snaps he's ring on we're going to be like let's go you know it's wheels up for no Fant but something we just don't know right now but he has the upside to have that ceiling next up Tyler Conlan Tyler Conklin uh Conlin is a top 25% athlete uh the Jets are probably not going to be a bottom 10 offense as long as Rogers stays healthy um and the snap shouldn't be too bad he was 18th in both snap and Route share last season I ran around on 78% of drop back so that's not bad at all um you know a hair lower than you would want but at 78% I mean if he bumps it up like 7% he's already into the range where we're really looking at for breakout tight end the path is really just earning Aaron Rogers trust Rogers is a player and a quarterback that like he will hyperfocus on the players he trusts if he only goes out there and trusts three players in offense three players are getting the ball right he just not going to throw he won't even look at you if he doesn't trust you so if Conlin can get on the same page earn the trust which it seems like he has but we still have a whole Camp to go through this summer but if that happens he get a very strong season um he honestly had a better season last year than most will like remember he was 11th among tight ends with 61 receptions 13th with 621 yards he just scored zero touchdowns right the next most unlucky tight end in terms of touchdowns was Duram SMI who didn't score on 35 receptions but conin didn't score in 61 receptions he had have thought he'd scor at least one touchdown you give him a measley three touchdowns he jumps from 24th in points per game to 16th tied with Kyle pit so again that's on the Jets last year too they're going to score more they be more efficient so like the opportunity is there it's just Kenny ER Aaron Rogers trust and we kind of just don't know the answer to that right now after Conlin Cole Kmet I'd say next most likely is Cole kment been getting better right last three years 25th 14th up to eth in points per game last season he's a top 10% athlete all time for tight ends bears are not going to be bottom 10 offense uh last season snapshare was 10th among tight ends uh rout share was 15th so right in a really good range everything's going up you're like let's go right the issue is this season right they draft Roman dun an incredible wide receiver they acquire Keenan Allen an incredible wide receiver they already have DJ Moore an incredible Wide Receiver right like they have three Rock Solid wide receivers they uh signed Andre Swift to a larger than expected contract like there's a lot of people on offense now he's going to have to get lucky with touchdowns he's going to need like you know an injury to a wide receiver um but you know who knows like maybe defenses really focus on the wide receivers they're like we can't let these guys beat us and it does lead to a season where he gets you know 10 touchdowns ready he gets lucky with 10 touchdowns and that makes him top three uh or maybe like Caleb Williams is just awesome who knows like there there are outs here besides an injury um but on average I would say given all the talent they have at wide receiver that Target share is dropping from what we've seen and so it's more likely he finishes like a backend one a highend too but again there are Pats does he get lucky with touchdowns does Caleb Williams turn up to be really good probably the easiest path but then injury to wide receiver like there are outs here to where he can have a really strong season after Jonnu Smith comment I'd say it is Janu smith top 177% athlete all time at tight end uh Dolphins obviously a very very good offense um big question mark is the snaps if Odell and Malik Washington both end up busting at wide receiver 3 they give both a shot both stink and they can't you know go to either one of them that's a world where I could see Janu getting a lot more usage and finishing top three I think I have too much faith in Malik Washington I do really think he's a very quality player and he can have a role on this offense I don't expect him to bust um so I still think Janu is like a really really good pick on Underdog less so I think personally in a redraft league I stand behind saying he'll be the most efficient tight end in the League this season I think when they use him it's going to be like an insanely High catch percentage for a really high yards per reception like I just think that's going to be awesome it's just that I think they're probably only going to go to him like three or four times a game so on Underdog you can capitalize on that because there will be games where he breaks off a few really long plays there'll be games I think where he has the upside to score multiple touchdowns and it's like you want to capitalize on that in redraft League you'll be going in there being like okay I'm expecting three or four targets am I really competing with the teams that have leaport Kelsey Andrews cancade McBride pittz KD no like you're going to really be against those guys like really be like worse than them in projection um but who knows like again if if they can't get that wide receiver three roll going and he is highly efficient maybe they do try and go you know what five or six looks to him and maybe he's catching four or five of them every week for an insanely High yards per perception and he's got some touchdowns mixed in all of a sudden we get a little bit of touchdown luck and we're cooking right for for John new Smith so could happen um I again I think he deserves to be kind of like lower on this list though um again good ADP and Underdog in redraft it's like I kind of said before when you're at the Musgrave range you're already in your last pick for tight end so it's like the same you don't get that extra discount that like Underdog being 18 rounds with no defense and kicker well if you're in a 15 round redraft league with defense and kicker round 13 is the last time you're taking a skill player so there's no difference between round 13 and round 18 so again better in um underdog not as much in redraft after jnu I would say next most Chig Okonkwo likely to break out is chika cono uh top 38% athlete so that's a hit um Titans are not going to be amazing but I'd be a little surprised if they're bottom 10 I think they should be around League average as an offense um some chance that the snaps increase uh but I feel like you kind of hear the tone maybe there like just a little bit less confidence again moving down the list in order of likelihood in my opinion like top 38% Is Not Top 10 Titans are not going to be top 10 they're going to be around average we're hoping the snaps go up it's like we're kind of hoping for everything with chig um but I like him I do like him as a player and they are going to throw the ball more they're going to play faster than people think um I think the Saving Grace for chig is that like he is by far their best pass catching tight end and so given that they're going to throw it so much maybe they do look at it and they're like you know what how are teams going to defend us right cuz it is a thing like if you do look at this team they have a very talented passing attack and if Will Lis can really like you know get going in year two you've got two great pass catching running backs got DeAndre Hopkins you've got Calvin Ridley tyor Boyd's a quality number three Trin Burks maybe can excel in a number four role right get some limited plays there um but then when you throw chi in there you're like okay like we have a lot of different weapons maybe they can get going and then maybe Chi can do something but I don't know the outs a little bit rough for me to see like it's not like we're expecting will Levis to be some insane quarterback and so it would have to be him taking a big step up and then probably some injuries plus touchdown luck so not as many outs but he makes the list so we have to talk about him and then finally last person Mike Gesicki to make the list is Mike Kiki um of course being on the Bengals now right that's obviously a very good offense he is the fourth most athletic tight end in NFL history so that is a big plus um big issue is snapshare plus the fact that of course you know they have Jamar Chase they have t Higgins they have Jermaine Burton who I think can be a great wide receiver three last season we figured giki would have a high snap share right since the Pats had basically no Talent at wide receiver they had zro Douglas kind of break out but like they needed skill players they needed people who could catch the football he played less than half the snaps he was like 29th in route share among tight ends he only has 606 receiving yards combined over the last two seasons hasn't missed the game he's played all 34 games like personally I would only take m on Underdog and I'd be stacking with burrow 100% of the time so if you take burrow and you've got like a Chase Higgins burrow stack going on or maybe you like missed out on those two and you want to go Burton and mik Kiki that's where I would do it in a redraft league he's just it's such a long shot for Mike giki to really do anything if he you know surprised us right they go into camp and they're like no we like him right throw the other tight ends aside you're going to go out there you're going to play 85% of the snaps that's the out because also you then like there are you know other PS like CH we were talking about before he needs the snaps to go up he needs the the quarterback player to be better like he needs a lot of things at least with gaseki like again I put him last on this list because I actually don't think it's going to happen but if it did happen that he went out there 80 85% of routes he's running a route he's got a great quarterback on a great team and he's athletic so if he actually gets the snaps he's probably going to produce really well in fantasy I just don't think it's going to happen but if you do you should definitely be going after him drafts cuz he's going at like pick 205 on Underdog so he's free in redraft and he's effectively free Underdog so just Recap to wrap everything up among these tight ends that I think are being drafted in the double digit rounds that have a path to breakout season the ones i' go after heavily in redraft leagues are hawin Noah Fant both tight ends if you want to take them with your last pick um Tyler Conlin and Cole kment that's kind of where I draw the line there and I would say it'd be ideal in this range should be double dipping on all these guys take two shots in your two favorite then for those of you on Underdog I would add in jnu Smith chica cono and M aeki and I would probably always try and do as part of a stack you already have the quarterback and then one final name uh taes Hill is like an honorable mention for those of you who play in leagues where he's tight end eligible a lot of leagues are moving towards making him only a quarterback I don't know what league you play in I don't know if you can change that in your league but if you're allowed to play him at tight end I would have him ranked right after Dallas gdd and he would be a very strong pick I do actually think he's going to have a strong role this season on the ground through the air in the Red Zone they have him throw it at times I think he's actually going to be way more involved than people think it could be even more involved than we've seen so again if you can play him at tight end if you can't you can only play him a quarterback completely cross him off don't worry about him so those of you Outro who watch this far be sure to hit the like button you liked it somewhat uh And subscribe to the channel if you are new here these videos are always free so why not just make sure you don't miss any of them hit subscribe click the Bell icon next to it so it always pops up in your feed if you want to see my exact rankings for all these players along with all other players you can see that on my website the Fant football advice.com I'll be back tomorrow with another video but that my friends be the end of this one and thanks for watching