Week 1 Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter

Intro week one is officially here which means it is time to set your fantasy football lineups with matchups that matter if you guys were following the channel last year this is where we break down everything from over unders implied totals where the sharps are betting Advanced Data points Shadow coverage must start kind of flex options running back wide receiver quarterback and tight end matchups that we want to exploit ones that we maybe don't want to exploit it is back it is an exciting time of the year where we get to talk about some real football for a change our weekly ranking Manifesto is now live you can get access to it one of two ways listed down below everything that I'm covering in today's video is from our weekly rankings Manifesto you can use this information to determine who you want to start and who you want to sit say for example you're deciding between Aaron Jones and David Montgomery make a checklist go through each of these data points and that will help you set your Over/Unders fantasy football lineup so the week one slate is absolutely packed we got a Thursday game a Friday game Sunday night Monday night and then of course a main slate on Sunday the top five over unders and the bottom five over unders are on my left and on my right respectively you can see that Lions Rams game on Sunday night High over under the only one over 50 points Miami Jacksonville another high one Arizona and buffalo a very high overunderish Houston and then Philadelphia Green Bay on Friday night all these games are ones that you want to attack with your start sit decisions if you are deciding between somebody in these games versus somebody not in these games there's a very good chance that you should go for the point total go for the High over under because Vegas isn't in the business of losing money same goes for the low over under games if you have players that are on the Bengals the Patriots the Chargers the Raiders the Saints the Panthers the teams that you guys can see on my right there's a good chance that you probably want to steer away from those guys if you have a start sit decision that involves a fringe player obviously you're still going to play Jamar Chase and T Higgins and those type of guys but if you have a guy on The Fringe that is the uh Direction you want to steer away from same goes for the implied Point totals of course these Implied Point Totals are based on the over unders the bills the Lions the Dolphins the Eagles and the Texans The Usual Suspects the usual culprits of scoring a lot of points are implied for 25 or more points this week so again fire up all of the players from those teams you want to be putting James Cook Dalton canade some of the wide receivers if you have a flex decisions Detroit Lions you want to be throwing in your am man Ross St Brown your Sam leapor your jir Gibbs and your David Montgomery the guys with lower implied Point totals coming from the Patriots Broncos Raiders Panthers and Steelers this is why we talk about during the draft cycle that we don't always want to be picking players from these teams is because they're not going to be implied for a lot of points week over week I'm sure I'm going to say a lot of those team names again every week for the next 16 17 weeks of the season but the Vegas totals are not always perfect and where Where the Sharps are Betting the sharps are betting can definitely be a huge huge indication of which games could go over and shoot out which games maybe are set a little bit too high and could end up disappointing and this is particularly useful I would say for DFS you can see that Saints Panthers game also set at a low over under but it is expected to go higher according to where the sharp money is posted same with that Seahawks and Broncos game the Colts and dolphin or the Colts and Texans and the Dolphins and Jags game checking a lot of boxes already a very high over under and the sharp money is currently on the over right now so Colts Texans Dolphins Jaguars you want to make sure that those guys are in your fantasy football lineups and it looks like the first game of the week and the last game of the week of the entire week one slate are the only two games in which the sharp money is on the under so it appears that Vegas and sharp betters think that this is going to be a relatively high-scoring week one the 49ers and jets on Monday night is expected to go under according to the sharp money and then the Chiefs and the uh Ravens tonight is expected to go under according to the sharp money as Advanced Data Points well next we get into some of the advanced data points and some of these can be really really good indications of game environment as well because the faster pace of play that we see from uh both offenses there's a higher chance there's going to be a lot more fantasy production because the more plays the more fantasy points you can see Browns Dallas uh Colts Texans so on and so forth profiled to be the highest fastest paced games of the entire week so even though that Browns Dallas game doesn't necessarily have a high total we could see a lot of points just by the fact that both offenses run very uptempo and again this Colts and Texans game is checking a lot of boxes so if you have a start set decision involving anybody from those two teams you should probably lean with their um the with a Colt or or with a Texan and then some of the slowest Pace games of the week you can see that Seahawks Broncos game not checking a lot of boxes same goes with the Bengals and Patriots game not looking like one that you want to invest in and probably a reason for the Monday night game potentially going under is that the 49ers and jets run very slow paced offenses so looking at the next group of Advanced Data points we have offensive dvoa which means the offense on the far left versus the opponent's defensive dvoa so their week one opponent how good they were on defense and it's worth noting that all of these numbers came from 2023 so there's a chance that this stuff changes with you know new players added and uh offseason losses and things of that nature this data will get more refined and more accurate the further we get into the season because we will be using solely 2024's data at that point in time but the bills appear to have a massive Advantage biggest one on the Slate by a lot over the Arizona Cardinals defense so again the Buffalo Bills very much a good offense to attack if you're looking for start sit decisions Philadelphia Eagles against the Packers also looks like a great spot to attack you have the Dolphins versus the Jacksonville Jaguars a good spot to attack and even though the 49ers have a tough match up against the Jets they're a good enough offense that it looks like they could pull it out and then the Lions versus the Rams also looks like a good spot to attack there and conversely Jets versus the 49ers again keep in mind that it's 2023 is numbers so we're talking about the 2023 jets with Zack Wilson and Tim Bole that's how bad their offense of dvoa was so those numbers I would say keep in mind the context of who added who was added in the offseason who was lost in the off season so breaking down the shadow coverage and the wide receiver quarterback matchups I think this is Shadow Coverage definitely one of the more underrated uses of fantasy football start sit decisions because a lot of the times these things can sway you one way or another not only for the player who has the shadow matchup but also potentially for some of their teammates as you guys can see Chicago Bears DJ Moore is expected to be shadowed by leria Sneed who now plays for the Titans the Seattle Seahawks DK metf expected to be shadowed by the newly paid Patrick ceran Atlanta Falcons Drake London expected to be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr and then the Pittsburgh Steelers in that same game George Pickins expected to be shadowed by AJ Terrell so again slight downgrade for all of these players they have tough matchups and also a slight upgrade for their teammates because with DJ Moore for example it's not a bad matchup the Titans were not good against fantasy wide receivers last year in fact they were dead last against fantasy wide receivers but now they added lerus sne and if he's going to be on DJ Moore that means Romo dun and Keenan Allen probably have better matchups vice versa for jsn and the other tertiary wide receivers in those offenses and uh we also have some downgrade matchups here you guys can see anything in Orange is just a bad matchup the secondary is very good Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson versus the bill secondary Deontay Johnson versus the Saints cornerbacks worthy and rice tonight on Thursday night football versus the Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks then you have Debo and iuk versus the Jets and lamb and Brandon Cooks versus the Cleveland Browns Corners so again keep in mind all of these matchups when you're making your start sit decisions and then some of the best matchups the ones that you want to be attacking Mike Evans and Chris Godwin versus the Washington secondary great matchup there AJ Brown and Devonte Smith versus the Green Bay Packers secondary Jefferson and Addison versus the New York Giants secondary and then Chris alve versus the Carolina secondary as well and most of these uh matchup upgrades and downgrades were pulled from fantasy points.com wide receiver cornerback matchup uh Shadow Matrix and uh Advantage charts so definitely check that out if you guys want more information on wide receiver quarterback matchups this year as as opposed to going through like quarterback running back wide receiver tight end and just going through like the rank and weighted average and talking about who has good matchups and bad matchups I feel like it's probably more valuable for you guys if I go through my five biggest starts and my five biggest sits based on all of this information again the weekly rankings Manifesto is extremely accessible if you just want that information of who has a good and who has a bad matchup it is available with a flock signup uh link down below or an underdog signup link down below so instead like I said I'm going to go through and use all the Must Start Flex Options information that I've done on the Slate so far and use all the research I've done on the Slate so far and tell you five players that I'm starting at wide receiver and running back so to help you fix your flex and five players that I probably want to be sitting to avoid putting in your Flex this this week and then I'll also highlight some defensive streamers some kicker streamers and some quarterback uh streamers if you guys are looking for those type of plays Five must start Flex options for half and full PPR leagues so in order my number one option here would be ranked higher than my number five option so if you have multiple players that I talk about probably go with the number one option that I have so my number one option this week one of my favorite starts of the week in terms of like Flex production all of these guys will be ranked outside my top 24 running backs and wide receivers respectively so I'm not going to be talking about obvious names like I'm pretty sure you guys know to start like Michael Pitman this week for example Christian Kirk at the Miami Dolphins to me is one of the better starts in terms of flex territory guys 49 a half over under Jacksonville is implied for 23.25 points both teams are used to playing in the heat so not really a worry that they're playing in Miami as like a cold weather team or something the sharps are on the over in this game at 84% of the money and I think that Kirk will have a very big role early on in the season as Brian Thomas Jr gets acclimated to the NFL so with the dolphins defense as bad as as it's been especially towards the back half of the season last year they're missing a lot of pieces they're missing their pass rush so to me Christian Kirk represents one of the better starts this week because that is a high-scoring game that as you recall checked a lot of boxes as I was going through it then we have number two must start of the week DeAndre Swift versus the Tennessee Titans the newly minted Chicago Bears running back with the Chicago Bears sneakily projected for 25 implied points according to Vegas so I do like the ability of the Titans to allow a lot of points the Bears to potentially get out to a hot start to begin their season and DeAndre Swift has a good chance to punch in a touchdown in that game so I like him outside my top 24 running backs Chris Godwin versus the Washington command commanders I mean the commanders were horrible against wide receivers last year they were like the worst team in the NFL against the fantasy wide receiver position I think the Buccaneers have a lot of good continuity on their offense so I think that Tampa Bay is going to get out to a very good start time of possession wise especially they're at home against a team starting a rookie quarterback in his first NFL game so I think that Mike Evans Chris Godwin even Baker Mayfield who I'll talk about in a little bit are definitely good options this week and you're going to want access to that offense Jerome Ford versus the Dallas Cowboys is my number four guy here I believe he's going to get a good workload just generally speaking Nick chub is out Deontay Foreman was cut and then brought back I think that Jerome Ford will be the lead back here for you know the next couple of weeks and even though the Cowboys project to be a pretty good defense especially against the run I love the game environment as I talked about that is the single fastest Pace game of the entire slate and I think that both the Browns and the Cowboys offenses could get out to nice little starts here especially with the Cowboys changing defensive coordinators this offseason it's possible that Mike simmer defense is not nearly as good as Dan Quinn's defense was against the run and then my final uh number five must start player in my Flex is Jaden Reed against the Philadelphia Eagles we have our first ever at least to my knowledge Friday night football game in Brazil and I love Jaden Reed's ability to get on the field early the Philadelphia Eagles are not very good against slot wide receivers and that game is projected for 482 points and expected to go over with 68% of the money on the over so I want pieces of that Packers offense Jaden Reed is the almost solidified at least in terms of where we were drafting him going into the NFL season so those are some guys that I think can fix your Flex Must Sit Flex Options option this week guys that you want to have in your lineup five must sits that I don't think you need to mess with necessarily especially week one we already have all of our players healthy for the most part you guys just had your drafts it's not like we have to dig deep on players to uh potentially start this week the teams and players I won't be messing with are any Chargers running back versus the Los Las Vegas Raiders it's a low-scoring game it's the lowest on the Slate not to mention we have no idea how this split is going to go we don't know if dobbin's going to be the lead back Gus Edwards going to be the lead back kamani Vidal is going to be involved at all don't mess with the Chargers backfield until you see what it looks like especially not in this game environment is the lowest over under game on the Slate also tied for the lowest over under game on the Slate is the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cincinnati Bengals also have a very murky backfield that we don't know how the split is going to be between Chase Brown and Zack Moss so I would not mess with the Bengals running backs unless you absolutely have have to chase Brown is the guy that I would start but it's a low over under game I don't expect that this backfield is going to be um you know 75% one guy it's probably going to be a 50-50 split in the first game so don't mess with the Bengals backfield until we have more information on it and same goes for the Cowboys backfield again similar theme Here we don't have any information on these backfields we didn't see a whole lot of usage in preseason games and the Cowboys running backs are going up against the Cleveland Browns third best defense in the NFL against fantasy running backs last year I don't know if D is going to be the lead guy I don't know if Zeke is going to be the lead guy how much work does dvin cook get there's no reason to start a Cowboys running back until we kind of know what the split looks like and same goes for a lot of these rookie wide receivers Romo dun lad makoni Keon Coleman um some of the other guys Brian Thomas Jr we aren't totally sure of their roles yet so I would make sure to conservatively kind of rank them outside of my top 40 wide receivers at least for week one until we have more information more clarification on if Romo dunesday is going to start on the outside if Brian Thomas J's going to start on the outside if Keon Coleman is going to start on the outside if lad makoni is going to be a top two wide receiver option for the Los Angeles Chargers if you don't have to start these guys week one don't do it until we have more information start a guy who's a little bit more proven like a kland Sutton over those guys or start a guy that's a little bit more proven like a Chris Godwin who I talked about or a Christian Kirk who I talked about it's week one there's no reason to get super super risky and tank a good first week of your fantasy football season let's pivot into some of the streamers this week at the quarterback position again it is week one so there's no need to go dumpster Quarterback Streamers diving for like Russell Wilson or Gardner muu or something like that but if you do need a quarterback option for whatever reason this week you didn't you know pay up at the quarterback position or you're just kind of choosing to stream the quarterback position the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I talked about very good matchup so Baker Mayfield is in a very good spot here Gino Smith in the Seattle Seahawks also in a very good spot and Matthew Stafford in the Los Angeles Rams also in a very good spot in the highest over under game of the entire slate so any one of those three quarterbacks would be just fine I would probably rank them Stafford Gino Smith and Baker Mayfield and all of them will be inside probably of my top 20 quarterbacks in my final rankings streams of the week at defense for those of you guys that don't know what streaming defenses means it just means that you're picking up a different defense every week targeting bad DST/Kickers quarterbacks targeting bad offenses targeting low over under games the Minnesota Vikings against the Giants is a perfect one high Blitz heavy team against the turnover prone quarterback who's also got a lot of moving Parts on the outside the Vikings probably the premier defense that's widely available in a lot of leagues right now the San Francisco 49ers against the Jets probably heavily owned but definitely a good play Buccaneers against the commanders again rookie quarterback first game Blitz heavy defense a lot of turnover opportunities there Tennessee Titans against the Chicago Bears again rookie quarterback in his first game but I do expect that the Bears will put up points so maybe steer clear of that one and then the New Orleans Saints against the Carolina Panthers we we saw what Bryce young looked like last year and the Saints have a good defense so they are a pretty solid one like I said I think the best two options here are probably the Vikings and Buccaneers because they're at home they're favored um potential low over-under games as well there so um Vikings and Buccaneers probably the the streaming defenses that I really like the most especially ones that are widely available then we talk about kickers again we you don't get kicker talk anywhere else here Cairo Santos keamy far Baron and Chase mlin of the Bears Texans and Buccaneers respectively have the top three matchups and all of those teams are projected to win all of those teams have a chance to be in high-scoring game environments the best best one for sure is definitely Kim Fair Baron because that game is checking every single box you could want it to from over under implied point total um High Pace game high uh scoring environment in terms of where the sharps are betting as well so cimi fair Baron is probably the best kicker that you could go up and pick up off the waiver wire this week so again hopefully you guys enjoyed this video hopefully you got some value from it any start sick questions you have leave them down below if you are looking for uh rankings tier list videos the wide receiver one will be coming out tomorrow Danny of of course heads that one up every year and I will be doing the running back one on Saturday some uh content creators are throwing their tier lists out early I usually like to do them Friday and Saturday because we have the most information on who's playing and who's not playing and things of that nature so stay tuned for those videos we will have you covered with that we will be live for tonight's game as well so make sure if you guys are new around here we're live before Thursday Night Football every single week live before the Sunday main slate every single week and live before Monday Night Football every single week so make sure you're tuned in for that and of course we will answer as many start sick questions as we can in the comments during the live stream as well as during this video and as I tease throughout this if you want access to all this data all of our weekly rankings we get them updated early in the week so that you guys can set your lineups and we update them pretty much daily up until Sunday morning kickoff and after an actives have been announced so make sure to 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