LOVE/HATE - Players vs. ADP! (Fantasy Football 2024)

just like Dynasty trades in five we don't do intros here at redraft in 5 but we do give you actionable information that can help you win in fantasy we're 17 days out from the NFL season starting we're going to go through some adps and we're going to just tell you which player we prefer at adps that matter all these adps are getting referenced from high stakes ffpc adps these are actual decisions grafter have to make I'm kicking it to you for the first one Christian mcaffry is most people's rb1 overall but rb2 and rb3 is always bej Robinson or Bree Hall where are you at on Hall versus Robinson pick one people might be surprised that these full PPR formats like ffpc I'm actually taking Bree Hall and the big thing is the reception floor this guy led the league in screen passes last year with 30 that's like two Targets the game Aaron roders the year before last Aaron Jones and Aaron Rogers led the league in screen passes for running backs the year before that it was Aaron Aon Jones again right so for me Bree Hall that floor of guaranteed receptions in that game I know Bree Hall is going to be just fine there's just for me there's too much uncertainty over there with Bree Hall it's locked in yeah for me I love Bree Hall but I'm going to take Bean Robinson I'm gonna butt heads with you on this one I think that the upside scenario for bejan Robinson this year is a Todd gurly like season we saw that in this sort of rams like offense now we're going to get that with Zack Robinson I also think that when we look at the head coach Raheem Morris has basically told us that this is going to be the bejan Robinson show both are exceptional players and then a tiebreaker Coupe indoor games second half of the year I don't have to worry about as many weather situations splitting hairs I love them both but I'm going Bean Coupe is going bre Hall head-to-head let's take it to our next one this is a fun one two players that finished one and two in wide receiver points per game last season they were the wide receiver one and the wide receiver two overall and their points per game average was separated by literally 0.1 points both of these guys crushed are you on cidd lamb or Tyreek Hill this is a big decision for a lot of drafters at the two and the three spot yeah it's a big one but for me it's CD lamb they've shown no indication obviously they got to get the contract thing figured out they show no indication that they're not going to use him the same way they used him last year whereas Tyreek Hill came out and basically said that he felt it was selfish for him to set that goal at 2,000 yards he wants to be more of a team player his goal this year is winning a playoff game and we have to remember that Tyreek Hill is not young man he's like 31 years old now he suffered the ankle injury last year they have another Elite option in Jaylen wad they have John Smith now I just look at CD lamb and I'm like if it's not CD lamb on that Cowboys offense it's nobody whereas with this Dolphins one they can move they can spread the ball around a little more yeah and I'm with you I'm agreeing with you on CD lamb I've actually taken him at the 101 a little bit you can make an argument that the Miami offense is going to score more points I think we might both agree on that this year that it's a better overall offense but you nailed it with CD lamb I actually think Marvin Harrison Senior Target record is in play based on the fact that Dallas at the running back position has taken a big step back in terms of guys that are going to command touches this is the CD lamb show and when it comes down to it all of the wide receiver ones we're going to talk about a couple more of them shortly they all have more Target competition at the wide receiver spot than CD lamb does CD lamb it's like if cidd lamb goes down this offense is an absolute train wreck and I think he's going to be featured just like like we saw after the bye last year and CP I think he could finish his wide receiver one overall for back-to-back Seasons which we haven't seen in Forever Antonio Brown ant Brown Antonio Brown that's right but we're we're going a little bit backwards here and and for for the young listeners we're talking about a little bit of Pittsburgh Antonio Brown not like the Antonio Brown going crazy at the end shirs on Antonio Brown we talk shirs on AB was one of the best players ever in fantasy was so good let's stay at the wide receiver spot and this is another really fun one once we get past the the big three running backs and the two wide receivers there's a cluster of three wide receivers that usually go sometimes you see one of these guys creep into like the top three people get unique and different I was in an ffpc Main Event Alan Ross St Brown went at the 101 last night so you see some strange builds this time of year but Aman Ross St Brown Jamar Chase Justin Jefferson you have three exceptional players that are all young unquestioned Alphas but Coupe which way are you going this is three players to choose from Yeah man so with Jefferson the QB situation just doesn't have me completely out just out at this draft spot with these guys on the board so as incredible as he is it's just hard to say oh yeah they'll just plug in another quarterback he'll have 1,00 yards again right with Alan Ross Brown the floor is incredible with PPR but I do worry about his ability to break off big plays also that defense is gonna get better that run game is gonna get better I'm not even sure they need to throw as much right we watch Patrick Mahomes throw 50 touchdown passes one year when they went 12- four very next year defense gets better run game gets better they go 14-2 and he doesn't throw 50 touchdown passes so I worry about that with Jamar Chase it's very exciting for me because I look at CD lamb last year third best wide receiver season of all time in fantasy football number one best was Cooper cup both those Seasons those two players ran the fourth most routes from the slot I look at this offense now last year it was so obvious Higgins on the outside on one side Chase outside on one side Tyler Boyd in the slot this year with Tyler Boyd gone and Germaine Burton in town and J Germaine Burton is more of an outside guy I could see them moving Chase in him around using him more in the slot the way we see Keenan Allen Cooper cup CD lamb Chris Goan Jamar Chase is here playing with Joe burrow could have a ceiling that's higher than what we've seen from him before so I'm very excited about Chase we're agreeing once again and again this is another splitting hairs one I love the Sun God and Justin Jefferson's Justin Jefferson but Jamar Chase for me is the one I'm going to lean with here I'll also bring up the fact that we have the the new running backs I think is a little bit more of a question mark As to are those guys going to be used like Mixon and perine I love that you brought up Tyler Boyd yeah it's Germaine Burton and yosias those are not Tyler Boyd type players and Chase has been a guy that has really not seen much slot usage at all so even if he's like 35% slot usage that's a huge increase for him based on where he's been and when Joe burrow was healthy last year he was actually on Pace for a Tyreek CD Lambs like 180 targets so the volume would have been there I think if burrow didn't go down for him to maybe make that push in the second half of the year to to catch those guys we love the fact that he's young uh it just seems like it's a Jamar Chas season and I also think the AFC North is going to be a little bit more shootout friendly with Cleveland playing faster with Baltimore having an absolute mob and Pittsburgh having improved quarterback play based on where they were last year really really fun one now right below those two especially with some of the running back injuries and the pukan neua injury we're seeing Garrett Wilson and AJ Brown Living inside of the top 10 occasionally one of these guys Falls to 11 but we're rarely seeing these guys at the at the onew turn anymore they're pretty much locked in to the first round so are you on AJ brown or Garrett Wilson Garrett Wilson had everything we needed last year in terms of usage the quality of the offense brought him down and AJ Brown back-to-back season just smashing as a wide receiver one in Philly yeah and that's where I'm going to go the conservative route right because with AJ Brown since he's been traded from Tennessee to Philly I mean he's been the top dog the offense is you know there's been some moving Parts obviously Jason Kel's out but it's still him Devonte Smith Dallas SCD like those are the guys Johnny Wilson's getting some steam but they really haven't gone out of their way to get a third wide receiver because they don't really need one to pay up for one there's not a lot of targets there outside of those top three guys which I love we love the consolidation back-to-back 1500 yards what more could you ask from a first round pick in the very first round I want certainty later on I'll start leading into uncertainty so I have been taking Brown of course Wilson a great upside pick and you know does have higher upside to some degree but I mean I also wouldn't be shocked if AJ Brown went from 1500 yards to all of a sudden having 1,700 1800 this year so I'm going with ajb what are you doing this one really pains me and I think they're actually both great picks the tier of wide receivers we talked about before both of these guys have the ability to outscore all three of them in my opinion when we get with AJ Brown it's really hard to get away from it though Coupe I love the fact that you bring up that he could actually improve because there's not enough talk about that there's a lot of talk about devont Smith a lot of talk about saquan Barkley and AJ's just sort of taken for granted but AJ improved his scoring numbers from year one in Philly to year two in Philly has a real connection with Jaylen Herz we also think Jaylen Herz is going to be a little bit more pass happy this year and Kell Moore as an offensive coordinator even with dvon Smith being a guy that I think you can Target in round four AJ is still a Smash in round one I mean I just brought my son a Garrett Wilson Jersey though I really wanted to go Garrett Wilson I live sold on the upside upside plus Sun Jersey I mean you got to have a couple shares at that I live on Long Island that's going to be good but shout out to everybody on Long Island sorry about it but I'm going with AJ Brown I think we could throw a c a small caveat that like if you're trying to win a gigantic contest maybe you go Garrett Wilson but my hometown league and that's what I'm thinking about this time of year you know my big Buy in big Hometown League I'm I just want the the safest and best possible guy there that's who I'm going with there but gett Wilson the upside is tantalizing okay so now we get to a structural question where getting a cluster of running backs that goes right around the one two turn a lot of times in non-tight end premium formats you see these guys go bang bang 1213 in some order and then so once in a while one of these guys falls into like the 204 205 but they're all gone by that range it's saquan Barkley now a Philadelphia Eagle jir Gibbs Detroit Lions a little bit banged up but it sounds like he's ready to go week one and Jonathan Taylor of the Colts three running backs Coupe pick one if you had to bet on them at 80P if they were all healthy I would take Gibbs I do worry with the hamstring stuff though so I've kind of been pivoting away you know I just love his floor in any sorts of sort of PPR and I don't play standard I don't know about you so we're probably not going to reference too much standard on the show we're not we're not a standard show so shout out to the standard listeners yeah yeah if you have standard questions though I'm always open to answer them I just got and I have my if you go to Fantasy alarm.com I rank standard I I do rank them differently than I rank other positions but for the context of this show just picture yourself on you know a site like ffpc or something like that and uh for that reason I do skew Sequon Barkley I mean both these guys have mobile QBs which is problematic right I don't think the tush push is going to be as effective without Jason Kelce but it's still there I just look at the history of Squan Barkley and his pass catching ability and I think they're going to scheme up a lot of those plays where they say okay we're gonna set up a wheel route here we're going to set up a screen pass where he's the first readed he's the play is designed for him you know Texas routes over the middle I don't know if they're going to really do that as much with Jonathan Taylor that was coming out of college that was the question that he's he's a Bruiser he's going to run for like six yards a carry with the RP over there I just don't see a reason why they would they would all of a sudden say okay we're gonna give this guy 80 targets and that's that's kind of the difference we make yeah I think you you nailed it I think I'll be a little bit more optimistic about jir Gibbs I think that if the Lions consider themselves a Super Bowl Contender and Vegas certainly does as well if they were worried about this injury I think you'd see a little bit more trepidation and a little bit more caution especially when you have David Montgomery available and a little bit more depth on the roster with like vaky and a couple of these other guys but it sounds like Gibbs they want to go week one so I think you know it's a situation where I'm going to bet on the youth I'm going to bet on the talent I'm going to bet on the receiving upside jir Gibbs finished as an rb1 last year if it all falls into place I think jir Gibbs could challenge for running back one overall this year especially if he settles in as like the number two contending for the number three retarget on the team which is certainly in the realm of possibilities with Barkley I think they want to use him as a receiver out of the backfield but they just have never really done it the most targets we've seen for any running back in the Jaylen Herz era is 50 DeAndre Swift was a guy where if I told you that last year at this time DeAndre Swift is rushing for over a thousand yards you would have made him like a priority Target in every single League because we figured he would take a step forward in terms of receiving usage he had a career low in targets despite being on the field a lot so I'm gonna pass on him Jonathan Taylor you nailed it he's gonna get vultured by Anthony Richardson a lot and he's not gonna catch passes even with the injury if I have to take one in this range I'm going jir Gibbs to be honest I'm not really taking these guys the three of them very often right now until I hear that Gibbs is healthy you're forcing me to pick one so I did but there might be a little Arbitrage play later we'll see how many players we get to in this uh this segment here yeah you know no you're right and that's this is this is the this is what dra we're trying to help you out because in your drafts these are the ADP decisions you're making not necessarily where where CP and I have these guys ranked if you want to see cp's rankings fantasy alarm you want to see mine playerprofiler.com this is a fun one we've got pukaa now banged up versus Drake London versus Marvin Harrison Jr you've got to pick one and you'll take injury into consideration and with pukan neua it's a knee and this is a guy that missed time in college you've also got a healthy Cooper cup to come into play into this consideration London and Harrison Jr minimal competition when it comes to the wide receiver 2 but both have tight ends that are going to be targeted in the passing game which one of these guys at Cost are you most into right now yeah and this is where I would love if Garrett Wilson is in was in this group because then I would say okay perfect you know it's like layup Absol the group of the unknown guys right uh with the upside and I'll go there for me I've been finding myself going to Drake one with PUK andu I'm not just worried about the knee I'm also worried that all last year every team until maybe the very end of the season came in and said Cooper cff's the guy we need to worry about if I have a shadow corner or I'm gonna shade coverage it was towards Cooper cup now the entire world consensus is that fukan deu is better than Cooper Cup right I mean at least in the fantasy world maybe real life football circles they are still not looking at it that way but I think he's gonna get tougher coverage and we saw guys like Juju Smith Shuster Calvin Ridley when the spotlight was on them instead of on Julio Jones or on Antonio Brown all of a sudden it wasn't super easy to get open and make big plays especially with that you know that that stretch on the Falcons before Ridley you know the season ended it was brutal when he was the wide receiver one so I do worry a little bit about that obviously Marvin Arison Jr has massive upside I would never argue against someone taking that but I think that Drake London in my opinion he was the best wide receiver in that class on draft day last year he had to get his 900 plus yards the Hardway right terrible quality targets he actually led the league in contested catches they were just chucking it up to him even when he wasn't covered 17 contested catches so I think this year with Kurt Cousins if he's anywhere close to Kurt Cousins Drake London is in for a lot of targets a lot of quality targets and he's gonna be throwing early and often to the first read in that offense so I'm pretty fired up about London but can't argue if somebody says well Marvin Harrison Jr's son super mega star that uh is playing with a good QB so I'm interested where are you going so I would say that my exposure to Drake London and Harrison Jr I have exposure to both of them they've been guys I've really targeted in the second round in my builds but if I had one draft I'm going Marvin Harrison Jr over Drake London in this range we talked about bejan Robinson earlier where Marvin Harrison Jr in Arizona I think the offense is going to be more Harrison Jr and and Trey McBride focused than necessarily the running backs Atlanta with the defense that could be a little bit better this year I think there's going to be certain games where they do lean on beon a lot and also Tyler alir a little bit of an annoying presence but the running backs in general for me we've seen rookie wide receivers finish inside of the top five scorers top six scorers in three out of the last four seasons with Chase Jefferson pukan neua I think Marvin Harrison Jr is going to make it h four out of five I think he's going to absolutely smash incredible touchdown potential he already looks unguardable in the Red Zone he's the real deal he's going to step right into it and Greg dorch and Michael Wilson at wide receiver 2 it's sort of minimal wide receiver 2 competition in terms of guys that are really going to take away targets from a true Alpha London's also going to smash though he's a fine pick as well I'm very worried about pukaa I'm only taking him right now when he slips a little bit more and I've actually taken a little bit of Cooper cup lately uh CP uh so a lot of Cooper cup the availability of of London and Marvin Harrison Jr where they go is why I don't have a ton of Barkley and and Taylor and at times Gibbs yeah no I agree both of those guys are super appealing uh you know wide receiver clicks because of the way wide receiver kind of clears up and you've interesting running backs which is a nice segue into our next question these guys are sometimes second rounders a lot of times third rounders let's call them midc to Mid third this whole this whole tier gets cleaned up Derk Henry the big dog now in Baltimore Devon aain Travis etn and Josh Jacobs four of them