You Need to Target These Tight Ends in Fantasy Football!

welcome into the football guys fantasy football show I'm your host Alfredo Brown joined as always by Dave kugie and today we are talking about our tight end rankings and telling you guys which tight ends you need to be drafting there's there's not a whole lot of great ones out there it's a little bit flatter than years before where there's a lot of tight ends who could finish as the overall tight end one so we're going to break this down going through do our rankings and how they compare to average draft position break those guys up into tiers and well we're going to be able to tell you who you should be targeting Dave let's jump into our first tier here yeah tight end one we've got Travis Kelce you and I both have him as our number one at tight end two Mark Andrews at three Sam lorta at four Trey McBride at five George KD and at six Dalton cancade this is a hell of a big tier with six tight ends who I think we kind of agree on this even though we have to rank them in a certain order they all have the ability to finish as the tight end one overall yeah absolutely and you know this is one of those things it's uh it's tough being sharp Alfredo you and I have been there the entire offseason when Sam Loro was the consensus tight end one and we kept saying like wait did you guys forget about Travis Kelsey like he was still the per game tight end one last year despite playing with an injury and Sam Loro with the expected touchdown regression so we've kind of been on this for you know the the entire offseason that Travis Kelce is still the king like he he's still the guy that you want to draft as the first tight end off the board now ADP and consensus rankings are reflecting that as well um Mark Andrews at number two um you know just another guy that has done it consistently year after year after year after year and I think Sam lorta could get there like he you know was the overall tight end one last year um of course the fears are that Jameson Williams takes a step forward and that his touchdown regression hits you know he doesn't score 11 touchdowns this year but at the end of the day every guy in this tier like you said has a chance to finish as the overall tight end one Trey McBride last year on a per route run basis he was drawn more usage than any other tight end George KD for four straight years has seen his role as a pass catcher grow while still maintaining his Elite efficiency and Dalton King Kade is kind of the uh forgotten guy I think in this tier and it feels weird that you and I both have him all the way down at tight end six because realistically like he could be the wide receiver one on a Josh Allen Le offense he could see 15060 targets and finish as the overall tight end one so we've talked about it a lot and anybody who has watched the show throughout the offseason has heard our takes on the tight end landscape and how we feel about it but you absolutely want to try to get one of these six guys there are guys later that you can draft that that have potential but it feels like these six you're getting a very high floor with all six of them and you're potentially drafting the overall tight endend one so let's out of this tier let's talk about some guys that you think are maybe not the obvious choice but could very well be the tight end one I know for me the guy that I'm I really like to bet on this year is Trey McBride and one it's a lot of it is I love the college game film absolutely love the offense that he's in with Kyler Murray I love that some of the attention from defense is going to be taken off of him by Marvin Harrison Jr being drafted and there's just a few things that I want to read off from last year with Trey McBride where McBride LED all TI ends in first downs per route run last season which is you know as we've come to know is one of the best stats at predicting future fantasy success Ryan Heath over at fantasy points using their data Suite has talked about that a bunch whether it's for running backs receivers tight ends any type of pass catchers the first down per route run ends up being a really really predictive stat uh he also posted the best yards per route run by a tight end younger in the age of 25 last season it's it's one of the best performances from a young tight end that we have seen on top of that the Cardinals and Kyler Murray continue to Target the tight end at a fantastic rate last year Trey McBride with a 29% Target share and the Cardinals overall second in the NFL with a 33% Target share to the tight end position I'm just absolutely loving the type of volume that Trey McBride can see and the fact that most people are willing to draft him as he tight end four or five sometimes tight end three as well I love that value because it means that I can get him around later than Sam laapa or Mark Andrews I'm glad that you're bringing up Trey McBride because I feel like all these shows we've done over the last few days talking about quarterbacks running backs wide receivers it's just been bobblehead show you and I just like yeah yeah yeah good take good take good take and I I I don't disagree but we are splitting hairs inside this tier like we we've said it all these guys have very high floors very high ceiling but this is where the biggest Divergence is in our rankings at the top of the list I'm a little bit lower on Trey McBride I mean I've still got him as my tight end five you've got him as your tight end three so we're still very very close but I find myself passing on Trey McBride a little bit um first of all I agree with everything he said I think he's a great player big fan of him um you know I used to live in Fort Collins so I got to meet him at his pro day and super nice guy um I'm I'm rooting for him but year one he couldn't get out from under the shadow of Zack hers which is concerning and then even in year two it took a zacharis injury for him to become a full-time player so what we saw last year I mean it's impossible to ignore how good he was in the second half of the season and that's why I'm still ranking him as a top five tight end but my fear is that now with Marvin Harrison in the picture and Greg dorge taking a step forward who we've seen really display a strong connection with Kyler Murray I don't know if we're going to be seeing that same usage for Trey McBride that we saw over the second half of the season last year so I'm still content to take him and I've still got him in the elite tier but for me with his ADP typically being tight end three I find myself passing on Trey McBride and waiting for George KD a little bit later you know it it was only a matter of time before I mentioned K's name but he is my favorite player in this tier when you start looking at you know the cost to acquire these guys so let's talk it out then with Trey McBride you're worried about the target volume from week 10 on last year Trey McBride was earning 8.3 targets per game M where do you think he goes down to are you thinking he's more along the lines of six or seven targets per game I was going to say six to six and a half targets per game which is what I expect and still very good I mean that's still probably going to give him a top five finish but I just think that um you know with Marvin Harrison in the picture he's going to take a huge chunk of that passing pie so just for some context here Travis Kelce seven targets per game last year finish with the tight endend one in points per game Sam lorta 6.8 Target per game during that time he finishes the tight end two I don't necessarily know that the Trey McBride Target share is going down there I mean we also listen Marvin Harrison is going to get his I don't think that we're going to be seeing an offensive environment where both these guys can't coexist and even if the target volume does go down I do think the then that's exactly it I do think the efficiency goes up I do think for the opportunity for yards after the catch goes up because that field was going to be way more spread out I do think this is going to be a team that will have to rely on the pass a lot more with Kyler Murray out there and their defense still isn't quite up to par so they could be passing more even though the target share could go down but we could see some better touchdowns from Trey McBride some better efficiency there's a lot that could go his way um I'm not telling you not to draft Trey McBride that's not what I'm saying I just that's the one spot in our top six where we had a little bit of a disagreement and I was I was feeling frisky I to push back and argue a little bit because we've been agreeing way too much this week and it's annoying me yeah that's uh that's about right Dave being have agreements you and I are both ahead of consensus on George K love to see that um and would youe like when you look it from a cost standpoint where George KD is typically getting drafted after all of these guys like in ADP he's going behind Kelsey Andrews will Porta McBride and King Kade in a lot of drafts that just means in my opinion George KD not only in the tight end position George KD is just one of the best values overall in drafts this year I mean can we just talk about what he did last year George K let all tight ends in yards per rout run yards per Target yards per reception yards per team pass attempt EPA and deep targets y this is like what are we doing I I understand that we oftentimes we get excited about the breakouts and the guys who could be better next season and this is not a shot at Dalton conade or Kyle pittz or anyone but I don't quite get the reasoning for ranking George KD behind them as especially we've seen what he can do we know that that 49ers offense is going to be good and if anything the year could get even better for him if Bron iuk is gone Dave I know at one point I had KD behind cancade and I've seen the light and I'm keeping KD firmly planted in my top five but I don't think George KD should be any lower than tight end five in anyone's rankings yeah that's where I'm at and you know I I actually slipped up earlier when I said that he's seen his route parti grow in four straight years he's actually seen it grow in five straight years and I mean it's been a huge growth like in 2019 George KD only ran a route on 70% of the passing plays for the San Francisco 49ers and everybody said H he's a glorified blocking tight end a glorified lineman and you know this narrative has stuck around since 2019 and 2020 when he was sub 80% route participation but then in 2021 he jumped that 80% Mark in 2022 he hit 90% And last year he saw 95.3% route participation which means he was running a route on almost every single passing play they aren't keeping him in as a blocker the way that they did earlier in his career like you said he led in so many efficiency metrics so this is a full-time player on a very good offense who is wildly efficient um I I I don't understand why KD is sliding to where he is now we've also talked about Brandon iuk potentially being traded and I don't think that's going to happen but even if auk does stay into San Francisco we see that when players sit out in Camp they have a dip in efficiency so now we could see even more of a a growing role for George KD um I've got him right now as my tight end four and it almost feels too low like I I've got McBride ahead of him or I'm sorry I've got uh I've got Andrews ahead of him and I've got leaport ahead of him but man it's just like you can see the stars aligning for a top one top two finish from KD this year yeah and I think just as you said that's with or without iuk on the team I actually I have Sam lorta as my tight end four and George K as my tight end five and I think they are way closer um than most people realize and so every time I see like right now average draft position has George K going as tight end six and Sam lorta as tight end two and for me they are neck and neck as guys who can be major touchdown scores they can receive plenty of targets and they're going to get a lot of Route participation so I think that that kind of encompasses that's it's it's a microcosm of the tight end position this year Dave let's go down to our second tier but before we do that I want to remind everybody you got a bunch of ways you can enjoy this show on youtube.com footballguys fantasy if you're watching this video currently please give this a like comment down below of your opinion on these tight ends someone you think should be ranked higher ranked lower maybe a sleeper that you think is going to go off that you're targeting and drafts also drop your questions there we try to answer as many of those as possible and then if you are are listening on the podcast which is either on Apple Spotify or wherever you get your podcast please leave a festar review after this episode let us know how we're doing give us some feedback tell us about a topic you'd like to hear us talk about in the future and uh you know we always appreciate any type of feedback we get from our audience as long as it's good only the good yeah no no don't say anything bad my my fragile ego can't handle it actually don't mind it you know what leave a leave bad comments but make it five stars five stars and just tell us how much we suck I really don't care I still remember the the review we got on Apple podcast like five months ago that said Dave kugie is the worst fantasy takes in the industry it's a shame that Alfredo Brown has to work with him lives rentree in my mind Mark Bey I remember your name I remember the review it still hats my soul I was gonna say thanks for the review mom but no never mind someone else all right let's go to our next tier here this is tier two with the tight ends but it's only oh crap missed out on the top six tier yeah yeah this is this is your like last turn you know there's no bathrooms for 200 miles this is where you're getting off and getting yourself a tight end Kyle pittz at seven Evan Ingram at eight we are in lock step on these each of these we have them ranked the exact same seven and eight their average draft position seven and eight I think there's a little bit more projection here with Kyle pittz but we obviously still know the talent is there we know that the offense has improved we know that he will be top two or three in Targets on his team Evan Ingram almost the same thing offense should be improved should be top two or three maybe even number one on his team in targets uh we just don't necessarily know that he is quite as talented as Kyle pittz but Dave I don't really know that there's even much here to go on this is just kind of like hey get these are like the last guys that have a shot at finishing maybe in the top five right I don't know they that they can either number one I'd say they they could finish number one I mean we've seen Evan Ingram was the tight end two last year tight end five the year before and Kyle Pitts we know the profile is there like I don't need to bore you with the numbers we've been boring you with for the last four years 99th percentile size adjusted speed score leading the league in air yard chair and every single year basically that he's been in the league like we know he is a good player now he's finally on a good offense with a good quarterback so you know we kind of joked around that these are like the oh crap I missed out on the elite tier guys but I think you'd feel pretty confident in either of these guys Evan Ingram is a guy that I'm slowly kind of cooling off on as we get a louder and louder drum beat for Brian Thomas Jr it sounds like he's going to have a huge role in the offense and we might see the usage for Evan Ingram shrink a little bit like you said there's some projection here with Kyle pittz but Kyle Pitts is good man like he's still younger than a lot of the guys we talked about in the elites here he's younger than dton King Kate and dton King Kate was a rookie last year Kyle pittz is already at the end end of his rookie contract here it's kind of crazy to think about but KY he's still just 19 years old I know yeah and hasn't even scratched the surface of his potential so I I still like these guys like you know they're technically a tier behind the elite guys for us but I think that you could still feel pretty good drafting either of these guys and just plugging them in week in and week out not having to worry about streaming I I joke there that Kyle pittz is just 19 years old he's actually 23 but it feels like feels like he's been the league forever he is the exact same age as Sam leaport he's actually a year younger than Trey McBride and Dalton concade so maybe KY pit is our new Amari Cooper like where Amari Cooper got drafted so young and you'd look at it and Amari Cooper is like 24 years old going into year six and you're like how does this make sense yeah Kyle Pitts is the same thing yeah all right let's go down to tier number three where it gets a little bit different you and I have a few disagreements here at number nine We've Got Jake Ferguson at 10 David and joku oh boy at tight and 11 TM oh darling Oh Darling oh dear oh gorgeous T pill and at 12 Brock Bowers for those of you who don't know what I'm doing it's the Gordon Ramsey thing where it's like when he talks to the adults he'll call him you donkey and then when he's got the kids on Master Chef Jr they cry or they mess up oh dear oh dear oh gorgeous that's exactly what Dennis Allen does with Tam Hill he was glowing about Tamm Hill I shredding every other player on the team this entire offseason and then he ask about TM Hill and he's just like I wish I could play him at linebacker like the things that he can do he's a quarterback he's a tight end he's a running back like he can do everything on just gushing about t Hill yeah the the the quote was uh Tes Hill can do everything he's more than just a wildcat quarterback I'd play him at Sam linebacker and I'd Rush him about 50% of the time like he's going nuts he loves TM Hill love Tamm Hill the funny thing is that Dennis Allen hates everyone else on his team he is such a disapproving parent that absolutely has a favorite child and it's Tamm Hill and I think a lot of that goes into our ranking here it's not just that the coach likes him but Dave we've talked about this a lot and you've converted me and you've brought me up and Higher and Higher and Higher and I think uh probably about a month ago I was closer to like tight end 18 or 20 on tesm hill then I moved to 16 and 14 and then just I keep for some reason only jumping odd numbers but here I am tight 12 you've got him at tight end 11 that puts him firmly as our tight end 11 I know there are going to be people watching us for the first time or listening to us for the first time and they're like okay these guys are stupid why would I draft or want to have Tamm Hill on my team you never know when to start him can I sum it up really concisely exactly what I want please he's been a top 10 tight end in four consecutive seasons and it's not pretty like if you roster Tamm Hill you know that you're getting boom weeks and then you're getting weeks where he gives you two or three points but at the end of the season he just somehow Moonwalks into a top 10 finish year after year and it's not pretty but you can plug him in and you ride the highs in the lows and the thing is like when tight ends aren't going to give you a lot of points so the difference is like when when when Tamm Hill has his really down weeks where he's only scoring two or three points the reality is like most other tight ends that you're playing against are only averaging seven or eight so it's not like his down weeks are losing your your weeks but then when he does have that 20po boom week most tight ends aren't doing that so then you're getting week- winning upside from Tamm Hill and the reality is that having down weeks at the tight end position probably isn't going to lose your matchup so with a guy like Tamm Hill you just draft him you embrace the volatility you plug him in your lineup weak in and week out and you're probably gonna end the season with the top 10 tight end Dave I want to go over this with you how many times ta Hill finishes a top 12 tight end last year mhm got 1 2 3 4 five six seven finishes inside the top 12 nine finishes inside the top 15 there are not many tight ends that you know can give you at least nine finishes in the top 15 and on top of that give you weak winning upside not just oh he was a good tight end I'm talking 22 fantasy points because he's getting carries out of the back field or 18 fantasy points there's not a lot of tight ends in this range that are doing that which is why I think it's appropriate that we've got him right here in this tier with Jake Ferg David andoku and Brock Bowers the rookie um there's aot 80P on most websites is like tight end 25 so we've got him ranked here but you don't have to draft Tamm hill before Brock Bowers and Pat fouth and Dallas Goddard and T.J hackinson you can wait until the final round of your draft pick him up for free and plug him in and I think Tamm Hill is like a great guy too if you end up with TJ Hawkinson you know tesm Hill is kind of a great bridge to get you through the early weeks until TJ hackinson returns um yeah I mean spreading the gospel of Tamm Hill like the guy is just out here every single year with this weird kind of hybrid role I want to say as well you know we know that he's a tight end on sleeper Yahoo just changed his eligibility so if you're playing on Yahoo he is now a tight end again after years of being just a quarterback so um that's that's the huge caveat here like tesm Hill if you're plugging him in as a quarterback you you're not getting the production that you want because the reality is you know Baker Mayfield and Sam darnold are not outscore him as quarterbacks but when you're comparing him to Gerald Everett and Tyler Conlin and these other late round tight ends you know you're getting so much more upside with tesm Hill man I'm just I'm looking at it and there's really when you look at the season as a whole I know you might take a few L's here and there with Tamm Hill if you put him at tight end and just fill in the roster but you end up winning more games than you will then you'll lose excuse me by putting Tamm Hill at tight end the upside is incredible and at this point there is no difference between him and a Dallas Goddard ad Dalton Schultz Hunter Henry Pat F all these other guys that come later you just have to be willing to live with the ups and downs and I think that's just the nature of the tight end position anyways I don't think that you most people live in drafts by saying if I can get just a good solid eight to 10 points from my tight end I'll be happy that's not going to win you your weeks and that's what you end up looking for which is why people go to tight end streamers and they're looking for guys that can get them 12 to 15 points in a week well you've got that with Tamm Hill and you've got it for free and like you said Dave he's basically finishing as a top 12 tight end every single year yeah and Alfredo uh I don't know if I've mentioned this on the show before uh but I I did finish in as ecr's number two ranker last year I'm just gonna no one car P myself on the back I I know I never mention it I don't like I don't like to gloat but people ask me all the time they're like how did you do that last year like what was your trick and I don't know if I'm going to be able to recreate it because my trick last year was being the only person that had tesm Hill inside the top 10 tight ends and really helped my accuracy scoring at the end of the year now I think people are catching on to a little bit you look at where he is getting ranked and he is much higher in a lot of the uh sharp rankers draft rankings I want to ask you a question here Jake Ferguson I've got him as my tight end nine Dave you've got him as tight end 10 you love him and I hate him yeah that's exactly what it is love hate last season 102 targets and this was a guy who at the beginning of the Season we were say people not me I was actually super high I remember that last year in our episode with Jamie Eisenberg where Jake Jake Ferguson it felt like weird to be so in on him but it it worked out um a lot of people are saying oh but he's going to be splitting targets with uh Luke skoon maker or sh sho maker don't even know how to say it that's how little of an impact he made on the season but Jake Ferguson here his 100 targets he saw last season the Cowboys could be pressed to pass even more their defense could be worse their offense doesn't have a strong running game could they actually be passing more and giving Jake Ferguson more targets is this a guy that maybe he and nooku belong in the next tier up with Pitts and Ingram yeah I don't think you could put them in that tier because like I said we've seen Ingram with back-to-back Seasons as a top five tight Ender already so he deserves to be comfortably ahead of these guys Kyle pittz has a profile um every year that he's been in the league where we we know that he draws targets at an elite rate and that he can do things that other tight ends can't do so I think it's we we should have Ferguson and njoku in a tier below but I'm okay drafting either of these guys the reason I just prefer nooku ever so slightly is we know athleticism is really what makes or breaks in NFL tight end and Jake Ferguson I think he's a sharp route Runner he's going to contested catches and that's why he gets a lot of usage near the Red Zone but you just start looking at the athletic profile for David njoku and Jake Ferguson and you know it just couldn't be a wider gap between the two I mean David njoku is just a freak by every single metric size speed strength burst everything Jake Ferguson isn't so I think that you know here if you're swinging for upside I'll admit that I think Jake Ferguson is probably a slightly safer player because we saw the target Volume last year we know that he's probably going to be second or third on the team in targets David njoku though has a much higher seal where if his role that we saw over the second half of the Season admittedly without Deshawn Watson but if we could see him maintain that usage with DeShawn Watson or maybe even jamus Winston whoever it is there playing quarterback in Cleveland if David njoku can see his role grow he has the athleticism to crack into that Elite tier and I don't think there's anything Jake Ferguson could do to ever really crack into that Elite tier I'll say this last year from weeks 8 to 18 all the way through to the end of the season Jake fuson was a tight end seven in fantasy points per game ahead of Dalton concade Travis Kelce Mark Andrews bunch of other guys that we really like but I will say this David andoku tight end won as you said it was not with DeShaun Watson though and it was also not with Jerry Judy and I think that's like that's a name that I almost sometimes forget he's even on the Browns and maybe it won't matter whatsoever Dave but how much are you letting that play into the thought process here with David and joku that yes it is deshun Watson back again and now there is another receiver out there catching passes I think that's what continues to keep me leaving David and joku at tight end 10 firmly I have not moved him up nor moved him down he has stayed there all calendar year for me yeah I I I just you know like I said I think that David njoku is just a a better athlete and athleticism is what's so important to tight ends it took a few years for him to get there um you know we knew with the first round draft capital the the the size adjusted speed score the relative Athletic score all these things we knew that nooku could potentially be very good but it was just a slow burn it took him a while to get there but I'm a Believer uh we'll talk about this later when we get to Isaiah likele who I am very very high on later in the draft or later in our rankings as well I'm just a believer in the whole cats out of the bag narrative like when you see a player go out there and just dominating I mean what he was doing after the catch when they'd get the ball in his hands no could stop him like he looked like Mike allot in the open field just Trucking through Defenders I don't think that they're just going to say like hey we finally unlock this guy but Deshawn Watson doesn't like tight ends so now we're going to focus on Jerry Judy I think that they are going to try to do their best to find creative ways to get David njoku the ball the one thing throughout his career that's been frustrating is his slot alignment like he plays less than 50% of his snaps out of the slot he plays primarily in line and when you look at all of the other guys Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews and these guys that are way at the top of our rankings they play the majority of their snaps out of the slot so we did see him lining up more in the slot and less inline in the second half of the Season that could have just been because Nick chub was out and deshun Watson was out and they needed to spread the offense out for Joe flacko but I I I'm just a believer that the cat is out of the bag they finally unlocked David N joku and I don't think that they're just going to put him on back on the Shelf in 2024 the slot versus inline thing is something that does worry me a bit we've talked about how the Browns are planning on moving a bit more to a three wide receiver set having Amari Cooper Jerry Judy Elijah Moore out on the field and they keep they keep drafting receivers every single year you know they've got guys like Cedric Tilman and David Bell and uh Jamari this year they're names right like I'm not saying those guys are and but like quick before the people in the comments like what an idiot they're not stopping David and joku no that's not the point that's not the point I'm making I'm saying they continue to add more receivers to this roster because they want to be able to throw as many of them out there as possible in sort of a spread offense which is what deshun Watson has really liked throughout his career so I the the worry that you have about him not playing in the slot David njoku I I keep that worry because it's not just that they added a receiver it's how they might line up David and joku going forward uh before we go to our next tier Dave last guy I want to talk about here Brock Bowers and we're spending a lot more time on these top 12 because quite frankly in a 12 team League you're drafting 12 Titans like you you maybe you're drafting an extra one so we're going to spend a little more time with these guys Brock Bowers a lot of this is going to be projection a lot of this now we know at least who the starting quarterback is Gardner mchu we know he can support at least one very talented receiver and my assumption is that will be Devonte Adams who is getting the targets from Garner muu Brock Bowers it seems like the team wants to use him in a bunch of creative ways whether that is doing the tesm hill thing taking runs out of the backfield on jet sweeps getting screens there's been a lot of really interesting usage for Brock Bowers and I think a lot of that just was kind of shown in how they drafted him they drafted him quite early in the first round they want to use him where are you at with Brock Bowers because you actually have him outside of your top 12 what's the reasoning for that you have him behind TJ hackinson who will actually be missing time early in the season you know I I thought like early in the offseason I I I was higher on Brock Bowers than most and I said that like we're seeing tight ends getting up to NFL speed quicker and we saw it last year with leapor and King Kade making immediate uh contributions to the offense and we saw Kyle pitch just a few years ago for a thousand go for a thousand yards his rookie season and I was higher on Brock Bowers than most in the spring and summer but like you said we start getting these reports out of camp that like he's getting end rounds and he's getting rushes between the tackles and he's lining up in the slot and he's doing all the fun things that we want to see from tight ends and now he has moved up and now I'm somehow behind on Brock Bowers and I don't I don't want to be because he's a great Prospect and you know I I I think that he could be good but if we're drafting him already you know close to inside the top 10 like you said he's going as the the tight end 11 It's just tough for me to see a situation where he could outperform that price tag where he's on an offense where we we want Gardner mchu to be the quarterback I think um but we don't feel great about gner minchi we don't feel great about Aiden oconnell uh Devonte Adams is there he's going to a 30 plus perc Target share Jobe Myers is there who every single year pulls a 25ish per Target share so there's not a ton left for Brock Bowers and I understand the excitement about the creative usage and things like that but like what what are we hoping for like if everything lines up right for Brock Bowers you're getting taes Hill production which you can get for free at the end of your draft I'll just take Tamm Hill instead of Brock Bowers oh that's not nice that's not nice I want to say Brock Bowers like long-term IND Dynasty I I think he deserves to be inside the top five it's hard to press against that but you start looking at the projections for 2024 and I just don't see a path with Devonte Adams and jacobe Meyers there where Brock Bowers is going to do much more than like maybe tight N8 production well I see that we could have Brock Bowers being let's say someone like rookie year Kyle pittz who was on seven like I think that is very much in the realm of possibility for Brock Bowers he's likely going to be top two on his team in targets you talk about wanting to have players that aren't just lining up in line Bowers is doing that you talk about wanting to have players that are phenomenal athletes we know he is that um I know we don't want to take too much away from preseason Dave but uh we've got some data here from Adam Levitan who's a great follow on Twitter uh he mentions the usage for Brock Bowers in the preseason game and the Raiders were using a lot of two tight end sets where Brock Bowers was in the field for every single one of those he lined up five times in line out of out of his 11 plays excuse me out of his 11 plays he lined up five times in line three times in the back field two times out wide and one time in the slot wow Brock Bowers is going to be doing a lot place he's going to be doing a lot and to me you talk about how cats out of the bag for a guy like David and joku who's just super athletic and team is going to want to get him the ball I mean the cat's been out of the bag for Brock Bowers we've known that he's this this phenomenal player this is why they drafted him so early it seems like they're already making the effort to get him the ball which is why I'm willing to comfortably put him in the top 12 just because I think once we start to move down there's a lot of ifs and maybe and it's obviously right now we're just splitting hairs I have them at 11 you have them at 13 it's not crazy but uh I just want to talk about why I'm a little bit higher on Bowers I think the out for Bowers and you know I've mentioned it a few times over the last couple of weeks is that I've still still expect Devonte Adams to get traded at some point this season and if Devonte Adams leaves Las Vegas then we're looking at a top five ceiling for Brock Bowers but it's going to be tough for him to get there with Devonte Adams dominating Target share the way that he does yeah 100 per. let's go down to our next tier we'll be a little bit quicker with these as you know you're likely not drafting some of these guys I think this this tier still has some good value in it uh so tier number four at 13 we've got Pat fouth 14 Dallas yd 15 T.J hackinson 16 Dalton Schultz 17 Luke Musgrave and at 18 Hunter Henry Dave you and I were not too far apart on a lot of these I'd say we're maybe two spots apart on a couple of them I think we have guys like Fri M and hackinson a little flip-flopped for example T.J hackinson is your tight end 12 so I actually just want to start out with that because that's probably the biggest name in this tier hackinson is a guy who might not be back until mid to late October if everything goes well and even once he gets onto the field there might be a bit of a ramp up process we do know however it's likely going to be Sam darnold who is starting for the Vikings throughout this season uh unless things go terribly terribly arai which in that case we probably don't want TJ Hockinson anyways but what keeps TJ hackinson so high for you in your rankings I know that once he's on the field man he's super talented he's going to be getting the targets but how do you deal with with a guy that could miss like half of the year or not give you full production for half or more of the Season I'm bu the injured discount I mean the the thesis for T.J hackinson is very similar to The Thesis with Jonathan Brooks like you know you're not going to be getting any production in the first half of the Season most likely but anything he gives you ahead of week eight is just kind of a cherry on top you're drafting T.J hackinson for the second half of the season and that's kind of um where where my head is at you know we still saw last year with Nick Mullins like it it wasn't quite as good as what we saw with Kurt Cousins but if you look in the handful of games that they play together eight targets and seven targets and then he got injured um you know in the in the first half of the next game pulling four targets but the target volume was still there you know he was averaging seven and a half targets per game so it's not like he's going to be dead in the water without Kurt Cousins there and this is one of those where I upload two sets of rankings and I kind of make that joke often uh on Harris podcast I've got intro music when I come on the show where uh one of his listeners wrote a song about how I have two sets of rankings to win the contest and that's it you know on fantasy pros I'm going to be much lower on TJ hackinson because we're projecting him to play half the season on football guys where I put my actual rankings not my projections I'm gonna be much higher on TJ hackinson because we know the second half of the Season those games carry so much more weight like if you can draft TJ hackinson and just throw him on your IR slot and not even think about him for the first eight weeks and then plug him in and your potenti potentially getting top five production down the stretch and through the playoffs that makes him a player that I want to Target pretty aggressively so you know when you start looking at projections yeah I'm gonna put Pat fouth and Brock Bowers and Tamm Hill and all these guys ahead of TJ hackinson but when I'm in a draft and I'm drafting based on rankings I want to draft T.J hawson ahead of those guys because I know that I'm potentially getting a league winning tight end for very very cheap in my drafts Dave if you can't put T.J hackinson on IR if you don't have an IR spot are you still ranking him this high and just using up a bench spot for him there depends how deep benches are you know if I'm in a league that only has five bench Spots I'm probably less apt to draft a guy like TJ hackinson but if I've Got Deep benches or an IR spot I'd say the cut off for me would be like seven plus bench spots if I've got that I'm probably drafting TJ hackinson but then I might try to get really creative and try to pair him up with a guy who has a late bye so I don't have to worry about ever rostering three tight ends you know I want to make sure that I can have a guy that I can kind of rely on to get me through the early weeks until TJ hackinson returns but yeah if I can sash TJ hackinson I mean we know like this guy was great when he was in Detroit um moved to Minnesota and saw this huge breakout with Kirk Cousins but even with Nick Mullins he was still drawing the target volume that makes him so appealing that uh yeah I mean if I've got seven plus bench spots if I've got an IR spot I'm trying to draft TJ hackinson instead session for the second half of the year so I don't know that it's necessarily fair to compare him directly to Jonathan Brooks whereas Jonathan Brooks we like he's been in Camp and we kind of have the confirmation that it's just going to be the first few weeks for Brooks and he'll be back in for hackinson when you look at the Minnesota Vikings schedule it kind of seems like he'll be back after the bye which would be week seven October 20th and that's also kind of H that he's at 100% so you might be getting an 80 to 90% hackinson for week seven week eight right like you you maybe start to get a a full TJ hackinson by week nine week 10 week 11 I know those are the weeks that matter most in fantasy football if I don't have an IR spot it's kind of hard to justify that it's kind of hard I mean maybe I guess it all depends like what you said with the Deep benches or IR spots but I think that's what makes me put him and by the way like once again we are splitting hairs with a tight end position I Haven at tight end 15 you have him at tight end 12 like it's not that crazy I just would prefer if I can get a guy that is going to play the full season let's go back here to the top of this tier yeah go you want to say something yeah it's just I I mean if there's no right or wrong answer it's just how you like to play the game but like if I was getting a guy you know TJ Hockinson has basically been giving us like 13 to 15 points per game over the last couple of seasons and for me like if my options are a guy who's going to give me 14 points per game from week 10 onward and zero for the first half of the Season or a guy who's going to give me eight or nine points per game for the entirety of the season I want the guy who's going to give me that Elite production in the second half of the Season I'll patch together what I can for the first half if I have an IR spot absolutely what I don't want to do is if I don't have a deep bench is have a guy on my team that's just taking up space especially if I don't have to pay all that much for a guy like Brock Bowers or Tamm Hill or David njoku right like if if if I'm doing it comparatively I'd just maybe rather have one of those guys than waste a bench spot that's the only thing for me if I have the IR spot I'm happy taking TJ hackinson wherever because I think the the payoff at the end is so much better my ranking here of having him at tight end 15 is a bit more of the projection of where he finishes on the end of the season most likely as tight end 15 as opposed to what he can give you in those final eight weeks of the season so my action able spin that I will say and this is what I've been doing in so many drafts if I miss out on the top eight which that cut off point for us George KD dton King Kate Kyle Pitts EV Ingram if I miss out on those guys you know every once in a while sprinkle in a David njoku or Brock Bowers or Jake Ferguson just in case but my favorite thing to do is just to wait until rounds 14 15 16 whatever it is draft TJ hackinson and then draft Tamm Hill and I feel pretty good with that duo if I've Got Deep benches or if I've got an IR spot I am okay trotting out a tesm hill for the first half of the season and TJ Hawkinson for the second half yeah and like you mentioned Yahoo has just made tames Hill a tight end in their leagues and sleeper has TM Hills a tight end in their leagues and uh if you're drafting I know that your league mates are going to laugh at you haha you drafted the guy that's injured TJ hackinson or haha you draft to tast him hill that good luck starting him you're going to end up one way or another with a top 10 tight end on that team that's that's just what we're looking at here I'm excited for the comments on these discussions because this is just like it's they're they're repulsive takes they really are like drafting a guy coming off an ACL with Sam darnold at his quarterback and then drafting a utility Swiss knife guy in Tamm Hill but it's a game about numbers and the numbers are there for both of these guys whether it's pretty or not you know these These are the late round guys that you want to Target they're not repulsive takes Dave you have beautiful takes the the comments are going to be fun because a lot of people there's there's a lot of depth to this conversation and it's it's you know a lot of people are going to disagree with us and they're going to disagree with us um staunchly so I'm I'm I'm excited to hear the discourse on this conversation really quick something random that's just happened here breaking news in the middle of the show Jan doson has been traded to the Philadelphia Eagles I I saw that a while ago this is a tight end show I know know I know but like let's just let's let's give people 30 seconds of it does this do anything for you in terms of Terry mcclaren's Target share or maybe one of the tight ends on the commanders like Zack Herz Ben cinate does this change anything for you in that passing game my boiled down take on this trade is that teams don't trade good players inside their division okay but I mean teams also draft players in the first round and you know there's all that like there's there like there's just think if if the commanders thought that Jan doson was good why would they give him to a division rival I think that Jan doson is cooked unfortunately commanders could also just be really bad at evaluating talent I think like there's there's multiple things there you're also not answering my question I said what does it do for the current pass catchers on the Washington commanders offense and you proceeded to say John Dawson's cooked what about I I moved um the the one thing that I made in my rankings change when I when I saw that Jan doson moved down for me a little a little bit but I did move Pat FR move ahead of Dallas scard that's the only actionable thing that changed for me with this trade is it dami brown time no all right let's move on let's move on next tight end I want to talk here uh Pat fouth is a guy I've got him ranked Titan 13 you've got him at 15 he comes out to be tight end 13 overall in our consensus rankings here uh but he's also he's tied with a few of these guys here Godard hackinson can we trust our Arthur Smith again can it happen tight ends were targeted at the highest rate on the Atlanta Falcons offense last year if any team in the league we know Arthur Smith runs two tight end sets more than anybody we know that Pat fouth can be a top 10 tight end when he simply has a decent quarterback and he can be healthy so does what's the real upside with Fri Booth are we just drafting him to be a safe tight end because then we know the usage is there or is there legit upside where we're saying Pat fouth was the steal of my draft at the tight end position I think he certainly can be um I'm a big fan of Pat fouth you know this isn't just like a guy this is a guy who was a second round pick and um you know looked really good in his first two years and then was injured most of year three and I think people forgot about it the reason I'm a little bit more bullish on Pat fmuth and well both of us are are pretty bullish on Pat frm both of us are ahead of ADP on him like you said these Arthur Smith offenses run through tight ends now we expect that to be Pat fmuth and last year we expected that to be Kyle pittz so the the worst case scenario here is that we see these Arthur Smith Shenanigans and we expect Pat fouth to be the guy there and we end up seeing a heavy dose of Darnell Washington and Connor Hayward and michle puit who followed him from Atlanta and and we did see that a lot last year where we thought Kyle pittz was gonna be the guy and then micle puit was the first tight end to catch a touchdown in Atlanta last year and then Janu Smith is ripping off 80 yard plays on these beautifully designed screen passes and we're like why isn't this going to Kyle pittz that's that's the downside with Pat Frou it's like we expect him to be heavily involved but it might be really frustrating when Darnell Washington becomes their preferred guy in the red zone yeah I'm there's a small part of me that says I want no part of anybody on the Steelers offense yeah and I think it's not fully reflect but somewhat reflected in my tight end 13 ranking I'd just rather not draft fire if I don't have to but if I missed out on guys like sure I'm willing to take him I think there's enough touchdown upside there that he can win me some weeks and there's enough of a floor with volume and usage that he won't lose me my weeks so I'm happy with where he is but it is the most ham and cheese sandwich tight end choice you could make in in your fantasy drafts I she's fine to'd be BL at times it'll it'll satisfy you but it's not always going to be the best of the best and that that's kind of where I am with him Dave really quickly before we move on I just want to like give a quick shout out I really like Luke Musgrave this year there's there's a lot that can go on in that Packers offense I love young tight ends that can play out of the slot that have athleticism and that do not have an established wide receiver one just yet or at least a one that we know of here before the season that Packers offense could be really good Tucker draft is coming off of an injury where he had a torn PE that usually takes a bit more time for him to get back out on the field he is practicing but we don't know if he's going to be at full strength so Luke Musgrave is the guy that I think just an interesting guy to take a flyer on yeah like in bestall leagues where you have to draft multiple tight ends Luke muskar is one of my most drafted tight ends absolutely love him at that cost as a potential tight end too let's be honest I mean like in most leagues people aren't drafting like maybe half of the teams in your draft are drafting a tight end to so this is kind of cut off Point like the reality is that on in most fantasy football leagues Luke Musgrave Hunter Henry the guys that we're going to talk about in this next tier are are probably going to be on waivers and you might have one guy that like really falls in love with the late round tight end and drafts him but um You probably don't need a second tight end unless you're drafting a TJ hackinson or unless you're drafting Brock Bowers and you have concerns about how he's going to acclimate in his rookie season um usually you're you're okay just drafting one tight end so you talk about tight ends that are likely going to be on waivers can probably guarantee the rest of the tight ends on this next tier are going to be on waivers at 19 we got Tyler Conklin I knew we were gonna do it this is just a glorious day Tyler Conlin at 20 John new Smith 21 you are ahead of ADP on Tyler Conlin I cannot believe what I'm seeing I just hate all the other tight ends man like they're not I cannot believe you are ahead of 80P on Tyler Conlin this is uh wow wow wow wow there there's a lot to like he's a very likable player ahead of Janu Smith yeah why not it's G nuts it's the tight end 19 and 21 man I mean this with all due respect to all of us making fantasy content who cares gosh not believe my eyes are seeing hey man Tyler Conlin could be the second highest Target earner on that Jets offense well no third he'll be third behind Garrett and Bree it could happen it could happen Smith Smith is also could be third on the team in targets probably fourth behind Devon aan we'll see so Tyler back to this Tyler Conlin 19 jnu Smith 20 Kon 21 Isaiah likeley 22 Joan Johnson at 23 and Cole KT at 24 and Dave hates Cole KT he's got him at tight end 27 basically he just shouldn't even be in the NFL at this point if you ask Dave oh come on all right he's going to be the fourth option on his team and Co KT like still very young you know this is one of those you know this is obviously a redraft show but Co KT in Dynasty I still want him like he just turned 25 years old he's going he's on a long-term deal like they they gave him a second contract he's goingon to be tied to Caleb Williams for the next five years Keenan Allen's probably out of the picture after this year and then we could see Cole kcro a little bit but um you know just the numbers tell us that he's probably goingon to be fourth on the team in targets and the fourth option for a rookie quarterback isn't somebody who's typically gonna give us a lot of production yeah not excited about Cole Ked I got him ranked his tight end 20 because honestly just don't know what to do once you get to that point it's hard it's hard to not still see him as a talented player and as a guy that can earn targets because that's I mean one thing we can always go back to is just talented players earn targets regardless of where they are in the pecking order or how good or bad the offense is like we we see that all the time um and you frankly Kate aon's probably third or fourth on his team in targets and I don't think he's as talented as Cole KT like there's there's reasonings Behind These rankings here uh but Dave let's just pick one each of us pick one tight end out of this group that we like as a sleeper at their draft cost can I please do two please oh my God if you just fine you do two and I'm gonna do zero because we're running out of time go uh Johnny Smith and Isaiah likely um and you know honestly where I'm at like I have these guys ranked just behind Dalton Schultz and Hunter Henry and but but the reality is like i' I'd prefer Johnny Smith or Isaiah likley and the reason I have some of these other boring guys like Hunter Henry ahead of him is because we're playing a projections game and Hunter Henry projects to get more targets and projects to get more points but the range of outcomes for Janu Smith a Speedster that does so much after the catch in this Miami Dolphins offense the ceiling for him is Skyhigh if everything comes together in Miami then Isaiah likely much like the thesis that I have with David njoku cats out of the bag they're not just going to say isaah likely thanks for all you did in the second half of last season but you're you're going to be watching From the Bench now I think that we see the Baltimore Ravens start implementing more two tight end sets and we saw Isaiah likeley can play inline he can play out wide he could play in the slot I think we're going to see him and Mark Andrews on the field together a lot so um yeah like there's technically some guys that I have ranked ahead of these guys because we're playing that numbers projection game but uh Johnny Smith and Isaiah likely I I I have no qualms with taking them at the very end of your draft just because the potential cealing is so high I do don't take two tight ends in your giraffes there you go that's your actionable advice by the way I just want to like throw this out there just a little sprinkle of something the commanders did get a third round pick back in uh in the exchange for Johan Dawson I know you're going to say your thing but they don't you know you don't trade good players what if all this is just to keep adding to a potential deal to get Brandon iuk on the commanders could be hey now but it wasn't a third round pick for Jan doson it was joh Dawson and a fifth for a third and a seventh oh my God whatever they have a third now I'm just saying it's they're not valuing they're not valuing Jan doson thir okay I'm not talking about Jan doson stop doing this I'm not talking about Jan doson I'm just saying they now have another wide receiver spot open and they have an extra third round pick laying around yeah they could make that trade I would love to see iuk in Washington Over Pittsburgh I think it just kills value honestly i' I'd drop him down my rankings quite a bit I like that we spent about five minutes on tight end show talking about Jan doson and Brandon iuk keep it you spend time talking about John Johson you I want to talk about Janu Smith and Isaiah you want to talk about brand and iuk on our tight end show one of these things is a lot more entertaining I'm just gonna say that all right we've done it we've gone through 24 tight ends here way too many tiers for tight ends please don't Dr I thought this was going to be a 20-minute episode how did we 55 minutes what what happened we pulled the we pulled the radio thing where we just filled time with just nonsense but if you have watched a listen all the way through thank you as always you guys are the absolute best audience in the world we are every single time overwhelmed by the support we get from all of you football guys out there we want to thank you so much from the bottom of our hearts we are really excited for the season to start if you're not already subscribed to this Channel please do so and make sure you are subscribed to the Daily News update here from football guys where you get everything that you need for training camp news preseason news injury updates All That Sent directly to your email inbox from Joe Bryant himself Dave yesterday I missed out on saying adios on the live recording so I'm gonna say it twice today I added it to the podcast I don't know it's okay that's I cut it from an old show I had I just I couldn't it was so weird like the show ended and I was just like where where am I like this this wasn't our sign off I ruined everybody's day so I I will I'll do two today all right here we go all right restore Bal the universe for myself for Dave cloie I want to thank you guys for watching and listening all the way through we'll see you next time adios adios