Cashing #NFL #Bets on Breece Hall and Derrick Henry | Tony Cutillo on VSIN LIVE Bet Saturday

[Music] back here on live bet Saturday as we keep it moving on this Saturday August 17th he's Jared Smith I'm Joe Soro and hey that guy in the middle of your screen is Tony catillo kind enough to stick around for another segment here on our Progressive guest line uh Tony a lot of great stuff in the Futures Market in that last segment um but we didn't get to all of it and we talked about sequin Barkley who you know I absolutely love right I mentioned I'm a Penn State and a Giants fan so I'm in sham now that he's he's down the turnpike in Philly uh but there is another running back in theate area who plays for the other you know fake New York team who might have just as good a year as sequin man I'm incredibly high on Breeze Hall I think he's absolutely instrumental to the success of the Jets this year what are you expecting at AAL in this Futures market for this upcoming season wow there there's a really nice bet uh on DraftKings it's a th000 plus plus rushing and 500 plus receiving I honestly have no idea why that number is that low uh you know I look at it and I look at a guy last year that was six yards short of a thousand yards but only got the ball 223 times out of the back field easing him back in you know coming back from that injury and then he also had 95 targets last year with a bunch of stiffs quarterback right there like like honestly let's think about it there was no AR last year right so again if you look at that and you look at what Aaron roders did for Aaron Aaron Rogers got Aaron Jones paid in Green Bay he was averaging 65 to 66 catches every single year and that fell off with Jordan love so Aaron Rogers does like to throw the ball to the running back so to think that he's not going to have 500 yards last year was 76 for 591 so in that offense with the healthy Aaron Rodgers Bree Hall he is going to obliterate that number of my opinion and you give Joe Douglas a lot of credit he has been really good in the running back drafting Department lately not only Bree Hall but also Israel Aban aanda who's kind of on the outs now because they drafted the kid out of Wisconsin brillan Allen who looks fantastic in Camp so now you have Hall and Allen and you can kind of go King to the queen on the chess board like I could see Bree Hall being the guy that gets split out and brillan Allen kind of being the you know the Joker um that's in the back field being more the traditional running back role it'll be interesting how the Jets handled that tailb position this year and kind of who gets the Lion Share of it um speaking of lion Shar that's what you're focused on with fantasy football Tony and I think it's a great time for the conversation because a lot of people are drafting over the next week or so as we start to get these pre-season games under our belt what's the first thing you look for do you take the pre like say for instance you're drafting tomorrow you get to watch all the preseason games today and tomorrow and then tomorrow night you draft do you do you take anything from that or is it all projections and and where we're going to project to the regular season or do you use the preseason as a guide you know it's so funny a lot of people ask that and I one of those guys that look at nothing in the preseason whatsoever uh you know and for me all my study and research happens before preseason games are even played I'm listening to coordinators I'm listening to coach speak I'm I'm watching like kind of scheme seeing okay we mentioned sequan Barkley right I'm going back and watching Dallas a with Kell Moore how did he utilize the running back position and then I'm looking at the advantages now compared to what they wear especially if a guy changing teams but the one thing I will say and I I I I prefis with emphasis a lot please do not go by touchdown Equity you cannot that is a premium position in fantasy you cannot project how many guys are going to score touchdowns what you can do though is you can project the opportunities so you know for instance Jaylen Herz right we talked about 13 and 15 rushing touchdowns you can't project that in you can't put that in your projections you can't say oh he's going to score 15 this year I think no you could say he's going to have 25 opportunities but do not look at touchdowns to me I look at weak to week consistency Jarrett and that's the way I try to win in my LS so Tony when you're Drafting and I really like what you just said because some people I think put way too much emphasis on preseason results and I have historically typically been like you where I don't pay much attention to preseason we we were joking about it a few segments ago I just placed my first ever preseason bet I took the Browns first half today minus one because I love their quarterback depth as opposed to you know who Minnesota is going to be running out there assuming with the JJ injury that Sam darnold might not even see the field at all today um when you're drafting are you one of those guys that is you got to take a running back first round are you now in the new school of where I'm at it's got to be a receiver in the first round um what's your what's your draft strategy in those early rounds and is sequin your number one pick this year oh that's an interesting one because you know where is what is the number one pick I'm going to shock the world when I tell you who my number one pick is but and I'll tell you why but real fast draft strategy I I go by tiers if you have to draft by tiers it's overall value listen fantasy football is overall value now you can have depending on the league you're in you know I I do in a league where it's all Flex in five offensive positions so I could have run and shoot with a quarterback at five wide if I want in the PPR league and so it all depends on your scoring system but you have to look at what those premum positions are so for running back so to speak you have about four to five guys that are studs the rest there's a lot of parody right so you know and those guys go you know what why are you gonna reach for a running back even if you need one doesn't matter you'll get one later so always look at that when we talk at number one pick I'm a tire buddy man my number one pick right now and and it's because of safe is AJ Brown and this is not Philadelphia bias and I said this on serious and I got 35 phone calls and people tell me I'm crazy right but but but here's what I will say the why is it not Tyreek Hill because I'm scared why is it not CMC because I'm scared why is it not saquan I'm not scared but AJ will have better numbers it's all about being safe if you're drafting number one overall you better make sure that the guy you get gives you everything without question and that's what AJ Brown does oh by the way real fast the difference between AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill is about 300 points respectively over the course of 17 games so or 300 yards I'm sorry 300 yards receiving over 17 games come on man anybody can make up two points a week so you really have to look at that so I'm going AJ Brown yeah it's a good approach I I think and there's a couple of things with fantasy that are unique this year I think the new kickoff rules are going to have an impact and here's why the new kickoff rules are going to increase the average starting field position which means there will be less yards to gain for the receivers and the running backs the scoring though will be higher so more touchdowns which is a more volatile statistic but less yards which is more dependable more sturdy more stable it makes the fantasy football week to week and betting on props over unders touchdowns Etc incred incredibly intriguing what is your take on the new kickoff Ru am I on the right track with my analysis here I I'll be honest with you jar your spot on man it you know and it's a reason why it's so hard not to look at that touchdown Equity because of the short field right but that's why I look at Yak guys right and and and from the receiver position because I want guy that's why I love Tua so much right there's a prop with future prop with Tua for 30 plus touchdowns this year because he has nothing but Yak guys Devon aan you can give him a screen Pace he's going to go 90 yards Tyreek Hill give him a five yard out he takes it 70 right Jaylen wad the same way and that's why I like AJ Brown because of the same thing so looking at that kickoff Ru perspective not only is the 20s into the Red Zone obviously I mean 20 to touchdown uh for the red zone is going to be important but in between those two 20s it's going to be more important of how many times your receiver or running back is going to get targeted and that's why I'm looking at AJ Brown love it yeah I think look at that shorten field you know a guy like AJ really has value there because think about Tyreek right most of his value is in the long game like you're you know like you're saying right it's deep plays AJ once you get into the Red Zone once you're on the goal line he's got that big body where he's as reliable of a Target on the outside as exists in the NFL once you're inside the 20 inside the 10 uh Tony I'm interested when you're drafting who are you just in full fade mode on who would you not touch with a 10- foot pole in this year's draft I am full fade on the Cincinnati Bengals I'm not touching one guy on the Bengals and I'm being honest I I don't like what happened in the off season I don't like how they just shipped Away Joe Mixon I don't like the contract status with t Higgins I don't like some of the comments from Joe Barrow about making sure I'm healthy maybe not going full force in certain areas and I think Jamar Chase is going to be the odd man out in the sense that you know everything's going to be kind of forced in other areas and he's going to lack losser as well I just again guys I look at safety in this I say that word so much I don't want to worry about it so if I have the shot to take AJ brown or Jamar Chase I'm taking AJ Brown even if Jamar might have the opportunity to get 20 or 30 more points I don't care I want safety that's what I want and that's why I'm full fatal on the Bengals because I do not trust what's going on in that team okay so Tony last 20 seconds or so here when you say full fade Jared and I were talking earlier there are 14 teams favored to make the playoffs this year history in the last 15 years shows us four of those 14 will miss the playoffs ciny minus 260 to make it plus 205 to miss it at better than two to one do you think the Bengals missed the playoffs in the final 10 seconds or so here's what I found out last year in Philadelphia man if there's something Brewing on the sideline Something Brewing in the locker room it goes out onto the field so I I do like that I'm a risk taker so I take that RI like it I love it Tony cillo my man thank you so much for the time we really appreciate you coming on the show Absolutely thanks for having me guys more live bed Saturday after this as we wrap up hour two guys don't go anywhere