College Football Picks & Predictions Week 1 | 8/31/24 | The Breakdown

what's going on everyone Chris from piic dogs.com here with the breakdown we're going to be looking at week one college football action we're going to be taking a look at 10 games from Saturday's card and breaking them down remember to smash that thumbs up for us subscribe to our Channel if you like this content and if you're looking for our Best Bets my Best Bets including my daily $19 best bet including my weekly one for college football my Platinum play head to pick dogs.com and click the premium picks tab at the top of the page doing something new this season I'm going to be joining you guys every week for uh for our college football breakdown so let's not wait any longer let's get into the action our first game comes to us from Mercedes-Benz Stadium 12 noon on ABC you got the Georgia Bulldogs and the Clemson Tigers going at it in Georgia you the story here for Georgia is you know the injuries there's a potential suspension for Trevor etn and just suspensions throughout the lineup for a tumultuous off season and that's not what this Bulldogs team meet do I think Georgia is the better team here when they're at full strength yes because I I just don't know if I'm 100% sold on Kade kumnick but that being said we still are waiting for the official list of injuries suspensions and to find out who's going to be suspended who isn't and even if there are suspensions here I could only see them being for the first half of the game there's word that etn could be suspended for the first game entirely so I'm going to roll with Clemson in the first half I think Clemson comes out Fir and comes out battling here it wouldn't surprise me if they actually LED at the half I think Georgia can pull away in the second half as the game progresses but for this one I'm taking Clemson plus six and a half points in the first half next up we had to Morgan 10 for 1200m Eastern kickoff between Penn State and West Virginia on Fox and you know West Virginia last year they went from having Neil Brown on the hot seat at the beginning of the season to getting their coach off of it you know a nine- win season they were one of the bigger surprises in college football Penn State they come in top 10 ranked and for good reason I mean this is a solid Penn State team but this is always a Penn State team that continues to get that recognition coming into the season and they always seem to you know let everybody down and yeah last year the only teams they really lost to were you know the best teams that they were up against like your Ohio States your michigans and even in the bowl game they did lose to Old Miss but for me here eight points on the road I think is a lot I think Penn State is just overhyped overvalued here I think Drew all is a great quarterback it's going to get better with time but this is a Revenge spot for West Virginia after getting their butts kicked by Penn State last season it's a rare opportunity for West Virginia to open the season with a top 10 opponent at home in Morgantown which is not an easy place for anybody to go on the road and win regardless if you're a top 10 team or not and I think optimism is high for the Mountaineers so I'm going to take West Virginia here plus the eight points now we had to Gainesville for an instate showdown between the the Florida Gator and the Miami Hurricanes 3:30 kickoff on ABC and uh you know I went back and forth in this game because I will admit as much as we crapped on Graham Merz last season on our morning shows he did play very very well last season he was really efficient in terms of passing my concern for Merz though is that his top receiver and Ricky piersol is gone they do have some great uh some great players returning in you know at running back they've got Montell Johnson they've got Eugene Wilson back at receiver but I'm just not loving this this uh this Florida defense I know the swamp can be a tough place to go on the road and win but I think the secondary is vulnerable cam Ward finally gives Miami some stability at quarterback I think that you know they've got Damen Martinez coming over from Oregon State there's a lot of hype around Miami this season this could be a team that finally breaks out in the ACC and finally you know makes the ACC title game could potentially win the ACC Championship I'm buying into it I'm going to take Miami in this one I'm going to the two and a half points with the canes in this one next at 700 p.m. Eastern we head to Tuscaloosa where the Alabama Crimson Tide host Western Kentucky this one's going to be on ESPN and you know I went back and forth this one because this is a massive line game one of the Kalin D'Or era in tuscalo so obviously Nick sa retiring but for me I go back to kayin dbor last year with Washington and early on he just was not a coach that took his foot off the ass when his guys were up I mean you know did it with you know I believe it was against Boise State did it against um I want to say did it against Penn State they did it against someone from the Big 10 I'm trying to remember it's escaping me right now but you know I think Alabama just runs it up on Western Kentucky Western Kentucky they lost their quarterback this is just a Western Kentucky team that's in flux and even then last year when they were decent they still got rung up by the better teams on their schedule they got rung up by Ohio State in a blowout I could easily see the same thing happening here against Alabama I think Alabama runs it up I think they win this one by at least five touchdowns we going to go with Alabama land a big number next we head to Ann Arbor for a 7:30 pm Eastern kickoff between Michigan and Fresno State this one's going to be on NBC and Michigan obviously coming in as your defending national champions first game in the post Jim Harbaugh era Chiron Moore takes over Moore was on the sideline when uh when uh Harbaugh was suspended ended last year but now it's no JJ McCarthy either it's going to be Alex orgy that takes over my concern with orgy though is he's got he's he's got dual threat ability he can move the ball with his feet but you know he didn't throw a pass last year you know the Wolverines are gonna have to replace Blake corm Donovan Edwards is a nice you know replacement but this is still a very green receiving group and I don't know what to expect from Michigan's offense out of the gate and even then Michigan last year they were guilty of playing with their food a little bit but what will be the strength of this team once again is the defense wink Mar Gale comes over there's a lot of strong pieces for Fresno State they never saw a defense like Michigan's last year and I think that Fresno State is going to struggle offensively as well for me this just feels like you know a slugfest for a full 60 Minutes a bit of a slower Pace defensive game I could easily see 3110 something falling right on this number with Michigan I'm going to take the under 45 and a half between Michigan and Fresno State next we head to College Station for a seven :30 p.m. Eastern kickoff between M and Notre Dame this one's going to be on ABC and you know I went into this one thinking you know I was probably going to be on on Texas A&M here just because you know college station is a tough place to go on the road and win the home of the 12th man but I just I realized after you know sitting back and thinking thinking about it we haven't seen really Conor Wegman step up against a tough defense and have a a strong game like you know against a defense like Notre Dames and we've seen him struggle in in other spots last season so I I don't know if I'm ready to back him in a marquee spot like this but on the other side you look at Riley Leonard making the transition from duke to Notre Dame you know Leonard you look at his career splits when he was at Duke over across three seasons he had just nine touchdowns on the road you know the completion percentage dropped to 55% he didn't have as many interceptions but again he didn't you know threw 302 passes only completed 55% compared to 68 point . 2% at home and I just think that this is going to be a tough test on both sides whenever I get to this game I keep thinking it's going to be something along the lines of 20 to 17 2320 2420 so I'm going to go with the under 46 and a half in this one I just think it's going to be a low scoring slugfest in prime time now we head to a 1200m Eastern kickoff from Acer Stadium as the pit Panthers host the Kent State goldon flashes this one's going to be on ESPN and you and I just looked at this game because this to me is interesting I don't know how we get a line of 24 with a pit team that the offense was abysmal last year uh they have a weird quarterback situation Phil jerkovich is out Christian vayu transferred out so now they're left with third Stringer from last year Nate jarnell who did see some action but again nothing special to me but on the other side you've got Kent State who was the worst team in the Mac last year and doesn't look like it's going to get any better anytime soon for me I think that you know the spread is is off but you know I I love the under here this of the of the three unders that I'm giving out today this is probably my favorite one I I just again I don't think there's a possibility that Kent State could get shut out here and if that's the case I don't see pit scoring 55 points so I'm going to go with the under 55 between pit and Kent State now we had to Charlotte for a match up between the 49ers and the James Madison Dukes this one's going to be at 800m Eastern on ESPNU and these are two teams that you know both have a lot of turnover from last year but especially James Madison I mean they lost co uh coach Kurt zetti who basically LED this team from the FCS ranks all the way through to you know their solids you know ten years so far in the first couple years at the FBS level and now they bring in Bob chzn who's a winner at Holy Cross you know they bring in a quarterback and Dylan Morris uh who was a backup in Washington but he was highly recruited AO day comes over from North Tex there's a lot of pieces to like for JMU Charlotte you know they've got you know a bunch of question marks TX sari was the quarterback last year but he dealt with turnovers now you got Max Brown transferring in from Florida but what concerned me for Charlotte is that you have Biff pogy head coach coming out saying oh well 50% of our starters are injured and you want me to back your team why Charlotte wasn't a very good team to begin with last year and I even though JMU is rebuilding not rebuilding but retooling and still have a ton of talent I I I don't get it you know there's little expectation for Charlotte this year but JMU is still despite all this turnover one of the favorites in the Sun Belt I got to go with JMU I got to lay the eight points in this one I I I think that Charlotte's going to get rocked here speaking of Kurt cetti we're going to head to Bloomington where the Indiana hooers take on the FIU Panthers this one's going down at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on the Big 10 Network and you know the thing about Kurt zetti I mentioned that he he went from JMU he brought a lot of guys with him to Bloomington and this is going to be still a solid hooers lineup you know the hoers they got one of the best quarterbacks in the Mack and Nathan War he transferred over to Bloomington they still got a lot of pieces over there and this is you know kind of what Kurt edti did he just took JMU from the FCS ranks built him into a Powerhouse and now it's going to try to do the same with Indiana this is an Indiana team that you know had three straight losing season and had just three conference wins in as many years FIU they bring back Keon Jenkins but he's without his top receiver and Chris Mitchell this wasn't a very good FIU team to begin with last year when they took the steps up they got absolutely crushed and Indiana's defense is just overhauling like I said keep in mind a lot of this Indiana roster is going to be made up of guys that played for JMU last year and that was a pretty good team so I think that Indiana just houses FIU here uh I'm going to take Indiana I'm going to lay the big number here I think they win this one by at least four touchdowns and our final game on today's breakdown is coming to us from Tucson where the Arizona Wildcats take on the New Mexico lobal this one's going to be at 10:30 Eastern on ESPN and New Mexico you can be one of two camps either a game to shake off the rust or a game to get some film on them and I think it's the latter you know New Mexico I was one of the folks that was on Montana State I thought Montana state was going to run run over him and and you know this is a a New Mexico team that came out firing but I think that was more about Montana State shooting themselves in the foot than it was about New Mexico really doing anything I mean New Mexico was just the beneficiary of you know a a bad fumble scoop and score field position early on and they still couldn't hold the lead against Montana State they gave up 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose that game now you take on an Arizona team that's bringing back their starting quarterback in Noah F They're bringing back probably one of the best wide receivers in the country in taroa McMillan we're going to see if this is an Arizona team that was an anomaly last year or if there's actually something going on in Tucson they don't have Jed fish anymore but Brent Brennan it takes a special kind of Coach to be able to win at San Jose State and I think he comes out firing here I think this one's just a blowout from the word go I could see this being 457 if if New Mexico even scores here I think Arizona wins this one route I'm going to take Arizona laying the big number to Round things out thank you guys for joining me for the inaugural edition of the breakdown appreciate each and every one of you for joining me make 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