NCAA Football Week 0 Predictions with Paul Stone

you're now watching sports betters Paradise on the BET Rivers network all right we got games yes indeed Paulie boy Paul Stone Jimmy y here with you on the sports betters Paradise bet Rivers network let's get right to it the first one the high-profile game an conference game in Dublin again 11:00 a.m. Central noon eastern time in uh in 9:00 a.m. in Vegas Florida State opened up a 13 and a half Point favor Paul it's been bet down to 10 and a half in 55 and a half currently at B Rivers you know Florida State I mean what more could they do last year they were snub there's no doubt but they also showed in the bowl game and they held a lot of players out but they it was they were not going to pre uh create uh the competition for Michigan like the Alabama Crimson Tod did there's no question about that but they were deserving to get there running the table last year Noel is done a great no once upon time was a little under under a little pressure in Tallahassee in that opener against LSU last year 17 of their 22 starters in that game were via the transfer portal he knows how to work the portal but man to repeat the the success rate at that high because there was a lot of hits and very few misses uh of those 17 transfer portal players it's it's tough to duplicate so will Florida State come back to the pack a little bit probably so certainly a downgrade at quarter uh at quarterback forget the stars but Jordan Travis is much better quarterback back than dju we've seen a big enough sample size uh for that so Florida state Georgia Tech Georgia Tech though interim coach rallies too big I think three touchdown Underdog wins outright as they rip the interim tag off of him making the head coach they get to a bowl game last year and they win it so how about Georgia Tech a little something under rise a repeat quarterback as well the former the Texas A&M transfer and Georgia Tech got a little momentum all of a sudden as they try and modernize their offense from the Paul Johnson era it's something that their fan base wanted to see Paul currently 13 and a I'm sorry 10 and a half 13 and half is long gone 10 and a half and 55 and a half right now yeah I'll tell you Jimmy uh Lane kin he's a guy who calls himself he's kind of the self-proclaimed portal King I'm not sure he self-proclaimed a lot of things paaa yeah that's that's Lane's gig there but you know Mike norell uh man he has done such a great job in the transfer portal and you talked about the fact he was kind of skating on thin ice uh I would say that right before the start of the 2022 season a lot of people were wanting to replace Mike with prime so I think they've made the right decision to this point Mike norville's really got it going uh after being a little bit in Peril again two seasons ago so done a great job there uh certainly this is a Florida State team even despite the losses that you spoke about Personnel wise they're a viable playoff Contender although I have them just on the outside looking in this year as far as the 12 team playoff they lost some topshelf Talent no question about it they lose as you mentioned their quarterback Jordan Travis the ACC player of the year they lose their leading rusher Trey Benson who rushed for 95 yards last year and they lose their top three receivers so they've lost quite a few people excuse me there at the skill positions and then defenses defensively the losses uh were just as heavy perhaps even heavier they had five defensive players selected in the NFL draft this past spring four of those Defenders selected in the first 100 pick so they lost a lot of Talent on defense of course as always as we've always SP already spoken to norell uh got some reinforcements on both sides of the ball via the transfer portal but I just think it's going to take a little time to Jail uh with so many new pieces especially at the critical quarterback position uh with DJ U angay taking over for Jordan Travis Georgia Tech meanwhile uh man this is a really in my mind really intriguing team I really like their offense got Haynes King back as you mentioned starting for his second Year a true dual threat guy really ran the football well the last half of 2023 adds a dimension they've got a running back a thousand yard rusher in Jamal Haynes returning uh they've got their top two receivers back and they've got a veteran offensive line that includes two all ACC selections from last year so a lot of talent back on that offensive line one publication ranks it as the 10th best offensive line in college football so that shows you how good that offensive line is you look at Brent key who you mentioned 11 and four against the spread in his two seasons at Georgia Tech as the betting Underdog seven and three as a double digit Underdog I think things might be a little tight here in Dublin on Saturday I like Georgia Tech plus 10 and a half half and wouldn't be surprised to see the rambling wreck pull the Shocker yeah I'm going to uh you know I'm I'm I'm going to have the tech I mean the rambling wreck as well the yellow jackets um it's um wish we would have got that 13 and A2 but 10 and A2 and I've seen it go back to 11 so um be patient so Georgia Tech Plus TN and a half we both on the yellow jackets there the total is something that you might be a little bit more even more interested in Paul yeah you know my my uh they're pretty equal I like the total still a little bit more one thing to you know be concerned about uh that I've been looking at closely as have other handicappers throughout the country uh this game took some under money late last week and I think the reason it did was the prospects of uh inclement weather currently at kickoff and this game kicks off at 5:00 pm. local Dublin time a chance of rains about 18% winds 10 to 20 milph so I'm going to be checking that wind closely but I still think there can be some scor scoring in this game we've got a total of 55 A2 there at bet Rivers again George attacked that offense really good last year averaged 31 points and 425 yards a game uh we've talked about the the principal pieces of that offense Haynes King uh Jamal Haynes a veteran offensive line so I think they're going to score some some points on this Florida State team again that defensively was really hit pretty hard in the NFL draft I don't expect the simol to be as good defensively as they were last year especially early in the season as they find their combinations and so forth I believe Georgia Tech said it multiple times already they're going to be able to move the ball I think but I don't think they're going to be able to stop Florida State even though Florida State debuting a firsttime starter at their school anyway and DJ OU angay who began his career at Clemson uh went West to Oregon State and now back East to Tallahassee to Florida State so certainly a drop off there at quarterback they lose a lot of skilled performers no question about it but the one thing they do have on offense is they've got a veteran offensive line a prime Contender for the Joe Moore award which is symbolic of the nation's top offensive line in college football so I believe they're going to be able to handle Georgia Tech up front believe they're going to be able to block those guys last year Georgia Tech gave up 31 points a game defensively to FBS opponents gave up 30 a little bit over 35 points a game to the four ranked opponents that they faced last year so that's what we really need here when you look at the spread we need about 35 from Florida State I think we're going to probably you know get it or get close to that and I think Georgia Tech might even exceed expectations offensively so I like this game to go over the posted total of 55 A2 stagger games all throughout uh week zero opening Saturday then then we we have the ACC game and then three Mountain West Conference teams hosting of visitors for the New Mexico Lobos Montana State comes in but this line opened as low as 4 and a half right now at bet Rivers it's 12 a half in 54 brono Hall was a defensive coordinator in Albuquerque at New Mexico so he knows what he has and what he doesn't have as far as resources are concerned but I mean this is and and and they're going to improve they can't get much worse but this is an absolute message and it's going to be really really tough kind of reminds me it's not that much different of when Timmy changen took over late in the game a couple of years ago uh in Hawaii at a place that he's familiar with as well New Mexico we're seeing some win totals at like one and a half uh this is ugly Montana State one of the top five teams uh last year in division 1aa or FCS as it's modernized and at 12 A2 and 54 you still willing to lay that number with Montana State yeah I mean obviously this has been one-way action on uh Montana State so I'm not you know I'm not suggesting you bet the farm you know maybe a a small cheese pizza with maybe some of those cheese sticks but don't go overboard on this because we've lost a lot of the value I even heard uh another person and this isn't my information but I I trust this source that if Montana state if they go off favored as high as 11 and a half in this game at New Mexico it will be the most that an FCS team has ever been favored in history over an FBS opponent so that would be interesting if that occurs but you talked about Montana state they're one of the better teams in the FCS level ranked fourth nationally in the preseason poll uh they played for the national championship back in 2021 lost to North Dakota State they return a talented experienced quarterback in Tommy mot and quite a few other key pieces as well they've won 33 games over the past three seasons so they're really talented at that FCS level they also in division the two-time national champ is South Dakota State last year in September Montana State went to South Dakota state only lost to the jack rabbits 20-6 so a very competitive game there New Mexico on the other hand they have the new coach in Bronco menen Hall who uh returns to the sideline after a 2-year Hiatus uh he most recently was the head coach at Virginia and he also ironically 20 years ago he was the defensive coordinator there in Albuquerque for the University of New Mexico New Mexico though things have been lean in recent years since winning nine games back in 2016 the Lobos only 19 and 60 straight up their last 79 uh they won four games last year that was their most in La the last seven seasons but as is the case with most group of five schools they lost some of their best players one of those was 1190 yard rusher jakori crosy Merritt who transferred to Arizona a plus their quarterback who's going to start against Montana State he only has one career start their offensive line is totally new last year the defense gave up 35 points a game 408 yards a game probably not going to be any better this year and then since 2018 New Mexico only 715 and one against the spread as a home Underdog the numbers gotten out of control but I still under 13 will take Montana State so Tena stateus 122 over New Mexico even though New Mexico is doesn't carry a whole lot of respect it is the only D1 opponent on Montana State schedule so there's always that little brother we have less of a scholarship uh you know allotment the whole bit so there's some motivation to really you know pile it on if they get uh if they get the opportunity uh yes it's tough with the better numbers are behind us but this is what we're talking about right now what's available now and I would still lay it at 12 1/2 up to 13 1/2 so I wouldn't go to that magic number of 14 but I'm willing to back uh little brother here with a chance to really lay it on a D1 opponent so uh SMU and Nevada is the next line movement that is shot up so not quite as much as Montana state New Mexico but 6 and A2 points it opened up as low as 182 it's now 25 and 56 SMU at Nevada so um a couple of layups here for SMU they're excited as heck with their conference affiliation uh they put their money where their mouth is to be a part of their uh of their conference affiliation that's how much they value it they were they forfeited all of their TV Revenue allotment for the ACC for several years and it took them about 20 minutes to get on the phone to call some alums to get it to round it up they got some money and they like their football at SMU so they're ready to get back uh in the game but couple of layups in at with Nevada and Houston Christian before BYU um a little rematch of that old Jim McMahon uh Pony Express uh game out in the Holiday Bowl in s in San Diego and then nine ACC games here's my part on this when wait I'm not you know Nevada's a mess as well but man aren't their sights set on those conference games a little bit more maybe that that's where they really start to ramp up their level of intensity so as ugly as NADA looks here Paul I'm willing to take that inflated number now is at 25 and I don't think it's done growing yeah actually you know it got up to as high as about 27 or 27 and a half a week ago and a respected uh okay Market influencer on Tuesday came in and uh in bet Nevada and caused a line movement but uh yeah I'm like you I mean I wish Nevada was a little bit stronger roster wise cuz uh all the points that you brought brought up regarding SMU and their season Focus I think really favors Nevada as just a real large home Underdog they have a firste head coach and Jeff sh a highly respected former University of Texas assistant he actually brought four Longhorns uh to Reno with him one of those uh being running back Savon red who should see quite a bit of time on Saturday also uh Texas safety uh Kiton Crawford will be starting at one of the safety positions for the wolf pack so got a few UT players there but just don't have enough Personnel but like you uh you know I lean uh to uh to Nevada the numbers just so so high and I think again SMU they lost a couple of guys on the offensive line and sometimes uh those losses tend to get overlooked in the handicapping process but two tackles who went to or rather a center and a left tackle who went to Oklahoma and Missouri respectively so so lost two other two best offensive linemen to Southeastern Conference schools so I think that engine on offense uh operates a little less efficiently when you start shuffling guys around on the offensive line especially when you're going to have some firsttime starters uh on Saturday against Nevada so like you I I I like a small position on Nevada plus the points as well big picture when uh Nevada uh had a very good season Jay Norvell and I'm like wait a minute he's going to a program that is not you know not nearly as good on the field uh when he jumped from Nevada to Colorado State but we should know this it's it's not in just the the SEC where the Alabama LSU Georgia have more resources than the old misses and Kies and more than the you know the Mississippi States and the and the Vanderbilts so same thing there and that kind of was a kind of alerted me that just the lack of commitment from the administration uh in Nevada uh where they are right now so uh and so uh but right here that's too big on the road I mean catching a lot of points almost four touchdowns uh at home then the night cap again Standalone I don't know about any television opportunities for this one but well I don't know how the travel coordinators doing at Delaware state if they still have a job the bus is late the plane the flying commercial I mean this is uh this is a tough tough gig for them especially from a team that went one in 10 uh just a year ago was there a tougher job in the country than with Timmy Chang in inherited we talked about that when we profiled them in our Mountain West Conference preview and I gave out my a Hawaii over the five keep in mind they're only playing 12 games this year instead of 13 they did not exercise that option so maybe you know Chang knowing that when their travel is more than most and how maybe that that bye may be a little bit more um valuable than another game on the schedule this line opened up 27 1/2 it's now 39 A2 and 15 6 and A2 currently at bet Rivers I like Hawai Brady shagger he's got a lot of experience he showed some development last year and this is Chang's best roster there's no if hands and butts and it does scare me because they are they're looking to get out there and you know run you know have some success they've been on the other side of this quite some time but will Timmy Chang when it gets that out of hand have a little bit compassion being on the other side of a route like this that will be interesting uh so uh Hawaii Paul 392 562 this a game obviously if it was on a regular Saturday afternoon who's betting it but it's Standalone it's get out night in Hawaii so any opinion on Hawaii and Delaware State not really the only opinion I have it's just fascinating that one we're talking about Hawaii as a 39 and a half Point favorite against anybody so that's really wild and then the fact we're talking about this Hawaii Delaware State game at all tells you that we've only got four games on week zero so it's it's going to be of great interest to a lot of people especially being that Standalone game at the end of the evening but all the value's gotten away uh you know from the Hawaii perspective and when you get up in those High numbers it's just like you said it's hard to get into the mindset of will Hawaii continue to to run their offense and continue to try to score and and play Up Tempo and throw the ball and so forth or will they hit the brakes a little bit and and show a little quote unquote compassion having felt the uh the brunt of another team's Force and and uh you know when the Sho was on the other foot so to speak so I'll be on the be on the sideline but uh it's great that both these programs are getting this type of uh you know recognition and having guys like you and I talk about them and uh hopefully it'll be a great game and uh it'll be interesting to see how it comes out but that 39 half's a little too high for me um you know the the first half lines will come out later closer to uh kick off but maybe in the first half because they have a lot of pieces in place they have a lot of uh guys including the quarterback and they have some continuity within the staff uh also that's tough you know in a why there's no doubt I mean it's a brutal job but you know Timmy changen does understand it I cannot believe I've heard it's actually some Whispers he might be in a little hot water give me a break man I mean who you you you run this guy off who in the hell you going to get he has this thing moving in the right right direction and a level of respectability I mean so they're dealing with limited resources then the nil has a factor has only widened the gap between the halves and Have Nots I I know you agree with that Paul and so I mean this is just an impossible job so you know it's going to be maybe that 23 24 type of range this reminds me of back when Tua was the first year quarterback at Alabama and they ripped off like nine or 10 first half before it was z00 against the The Citadel of one year but I mean that might be an option or if you just lay the 39 a half and hopefully get more than halfway point you might set yourself up with a middle so just painting out some scenarios that you're trying to create angles because this is a tough tough number it's tough for me to back Delaware State you see that in the 12-point Jump Man I mean you I mean is Timmy Chang really going to keep his starters out there too long and let him you know run run plays where he runs it up uh even more than uh 40 45 points we will see no Paul and I will be with you twice weekly throughout the entire college football season here on Sports betters Paradise uh Paul any other last minute total notes or total advice or things that you know just you know some of the things to look for in the college football I'll say one thing and I know that you gave the you know you like the over the only thing every year there is you know Nick Sabin and a lot of coaches say you make your biggest jump from week one to week two you make your biggest Improvement especially on the offensive side so for instance I like LSU USC over I'm betting it I'll be at the game but I'm going to you know be a little not not dive in you know you know with with both hands this early because we've up dubbed this it's almost the week of ugly offensive football so it can be you do see some Kinks especially in the first half of some of these games Paul yeah that's absolutely true I mean you know the the offensive machine does take a while to a while to jail and probably biggest concern about the over uh is the fact that Florida State you know with a new quarterback with with the you know new uh new skill position people throughout you know I'm really banking on that offensive line the big guys up front you know to to create some opportunities and some time and some room to run the football and so forth but yeah it does take some time it's interesting you mentioned the LSU Southern cow game that you'll be at I believe on Monday night there at Allegiance stadium in Sunday night yeah yeah that game would have been Sunday night I'm sorry right um that game last year of course you know USC loses Caleb Williams and um LSU loses Jaden Daniels a couple of pretty good quarterbacks but that game last year if it had been played at the end of the season the total would have been about 75 and now I think I'm not looking at it but I think it's in the low 60s yeah 62 and a half yeah the total there so uh yeah that that's quite the change so it's going to be interesting you know both those uh both those teams obviously have first time starting quarterbacks Garrett NM for LSU has has played some and he's been patient and he's waited his turn uh so we'll see what he's got and then Miller Moss you know he's made his hay just on the pretty much on the bowl game I think people were thinking Southern Cal would certainly uh look hard at the portal for their 2024 starting quarterback but they found him uh in that Bowl victory so it's going to be interesting to see just how efficient those offenses are uh in week uh one there in Las Vegas yeah and that is going to be the five day opening weekend of college football the NFL uh Waits another week before they get things started so it'll be all college football we'll have a ton of picks for you high-profile games games where we can see a lot of value twice a week all season long for Paul Stone I'm Jimmy OT on the sports betters Paradise on the BET Rivers network [Music]