Ken Rosenthal on Boras Free Agents, Matt Chapman, Alex Cora's last year in Boston?

and these guys are all right on the doorstep but they've got Cedric Mullen Austin Hayes and Anthony send there ahead of them so if you're the oros you're in a great [Music] spot and let's get right to Ken Rosenthal joining us right now let's start with the Ken Rosenthal tour Ken where have you been recently and what have you observed did you hit Camp already this morning yes I am at the house that Pinsky built Minnesota and for M working on something with the twins wait can we see the picture behind you I want to see the can we can we get like a single of whose office are you in uh Dustin morrises actually oh is he there no he's not here I was gonna say just have him get behind you and just take a shirt off Scott would get so jealous that he's so much better looking than Scott that Scott won't know what to do with himself I don't think Scott's too worried actually AJ I think he's good yeah I'm definitely good that is definitely an AJ thing and I'll I'll remind everyone about one of our first Ken Rosenthal um hits that we had on this show where he told everyone that baseball players recognize everything if if one hair is slightly off they're all over you about it so I'd just like to remind everyone that we're now about a year into ft so um let's get let's get into some notes so I want to start with Corbin Burns and what you put out there about his upcoming free agent situation and why you think it will be different from what Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are experiencing right now well I approached him the other day at Orioles Camp because he obviously is the same agent as Stella and Montgomery Scott Boris and my initial question was going to be How concerned are you about the market and that was the morning Zack Wheeler signed his deal Zack Wheeler represented by waserman BB Abbott and I did ask the question to Corbin even though of course the market that day was looking healthy and he basically answered that he thinks this is kind of an aberration that the RSN situation with the number of teams has affected things but the reason I think it will be different for him is because he is an Innings guy and we don't see those very often anymore and the two innings guys this year and I mean by Innings guy as someone who compiles a lot of innings pitch is 200 those two guys this year who did that on the market one was on the market one was an extension that's Aaron no and Zack Wheeler They got paid Corbin Burns has been throughout his career that kind of guy since he's been a starter he's an accomplished pitcher sa young top 10 finisher four times winner once he's gone 200 plus and then 193 last year the last two seasons so I expect if he has the normal Corbin burn season he's going to do rather well and you guys know this as former players I don't know that players ever worry about what's happen happening with others in certain circumstances the great players he'll look at this Corbin Burns and say okay yeah Snell and Montgomery they're struggling but I'm Corbin Burns man now he's not saying that but that's the mentality the great players have and usually it's Justified Ken do you think this I know Burns has Scott Boris do you think the way this offseason is played out will make Scott Boris more you know fearful of taking guys to freeny and more amicable to signing guys to extensions because we got a huge extension you don't think it'll change even though two of his biggest assets were still sitting there nope and I did ask Burns about why he switched to Boris from CAA about a year ago and he said because he gets great deals for starting pitchers in free agency Scherzer Strasburg Garrick Cole three great examples Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery not great examples but as I wrote in that column six years ago or five years ago I should say the 201819 off season Boris had this kind of offseason I don't remember the exact names kikel was one there were a couple of others that he appeared to miss on and then I wrote a column at that time saying maybe the market has passed him by maybe he's not adjusting to shifting Trends well what happens the next year he comes out smoking it was Cole and randone and strawberg and he had all these great deals more than a billion total next year's Scott Boris class includes Juan stto Pete Alonzo Alex gregman Corbin Burns most likely Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman if they opt out and maybe snil a Montgomery if they get opt out so I don't know that he's going to adjust his strategy any he will probably spin this as what Corbin Burns said an example of the RSN situation being problematic kind of an odd year in general because the Mets Padres and Red Sox have not spent to their normal levels and it's just one of these things in his mind now Scott Boris detractors will tell you uh this is happening because he wants too much and he's overplayed his hand and all of these things together can be true I don't know exactly what happened I'm not sitting in the middle of the negotiations But to answer your question AJ I don't expect anything to change because he's in it for the long haul Boris is in it for the long haul and he's going to get his number if there's a little blip in the SE in the radar do players see that does a player like Corbin Burns see that as it's just a blip in the radar I'm not Jordan Montgomery and I'm not Blake snow that's exactly I believe how he sees it Eric he didn't say it in quite those terms but he did say he thinks it's a blip in the market now the other thing about extensions and Scott bores that you have to remember and he'll do them on occasion Altuve just signed one but it is rare for him to agree to a big time extension with a client because his philosophy is get the free agency get to the open market have 30 teams bid on you not one and have the open market determine your value not one team very often this works for him there are occasions and we're seeing some of them this offseason where it doesn't work as well and hey Matt Chapman turned down 150 million over 10 years from the A's this was I believe entering the 20 season now you can say it was the A's it wouldn't have worked out it was a low aav all that's true but 150 million is 150 million he probably would have gotten traded at some point and that's almost three times what he ultimately got from the Giants now granted he's made some money in between so it's not quite the math that I just described but again as I said on my show the other day the way these things are measured is by the size of the guarantee and by the sizes of the guarantees Scot bards can talk about the opt outs and how they could ultimately benefit the player and they might in each case maybe Bellinger and maybe Chapman get monster deals next year but for now you look at the guarantees and they're not what was projected what was expected in your article you talked about Chapman's actual value is this a case where they got a gold Glover at a discount in the sense of you know kind of break down if you don't mind like break down the value of how the team see it CU it takes two to tango and the other side is a team that's actually paying these players what I wrote Eric it's kind of complicated but I'll try to explain it as simply as I can his one-year salary if he opts out is going to be 20 million now in addition to the 20 million they're paying him they also lost the draft pick 51st overall that pick will have a slot value probably around 1.8 million Steve Cohen metsona put out a tweet a few years back saying teams generally value draft picks at five times their slot value that's 1.8 Time 5 9 million add that to the 20 million Matt Chapman is essentially a $29 million investment if he opts out after one year so you might say well that's high for one year but you know what Matt Chapman has been essentially a four- win player by War the last three years this is more math coming bear with me and War each point teams generally look at it as worth 8 to 10 million or four- win player is worth 32 to 40 million and yes if Matt Chapman the investment amounts to essentially 29 they could be very well getting a bargain if he is that player again Ken you we we had Sean McAdam on earlier from from Boston he's a beat writer from Boston and we asked him about your article about Alex cor is this going to be Alex K's last year in Boston and if so I mean I read the article but but why I mean they seem to like him they seem to get along he seems to like it there he seems to be able to handle the Boston media why would you let a guy like that walk why have they conducted themselves the way they have this offseason I don't know and they've run themselves curiously now why would you let them walk AJ in a situation like this it seems to me that it has to play out and we have to see how they perform whether they overperform how he gets along with his new Chief baseball officer Craig brlo these things are all part of the dynamic and the other part perhaps the most important part is does he want to come back and remember Craig Council a year ago was in this exact position entering essentially his walk gear as a manager becoming a free agent at the end of the season and Council played it out and then Council ultimately went to the open market and got a record deal Alex cor if this team plays to oh actually should say Beyond expectations if they play Beyond expectations and their expectations are rather low right now if that happens then in my view he's going to be viewed as a hot guy he might even be viewed as that guy anyway because people in baseball might say the Red Sox it's not cor's fault Hein Bloom the last two deadlines were not great ownership this off season not great cor is doing what he can with what he has and we could have several high-profile jobs open up at the end of the season again depending upon what happens so he wants to see this all plays out the Red Sox want to see how this all plays out they could extend them right now maybe they would in certain circumstances but with a new Chief baseball officer coming off two 78 and 84 Seasons if I'm the Red Sox maybe I want to see a little bit more and if I'm K I want to show the world that I've still got it that this isn't me that's causing this losing these problems that hey I can manage and get more out of my team Than People expect we talk a lot about signings and as a player I want players to get big league deals Eddie Rosario signed today on a minor league deal I know it's listed as a split contract it's a minor league deal with a possibility of making $4 million as somebody and you just you said it before maybe war is not the best number is this the is this the Fallout that we're missing from this offseason because there's guys like all the guys you've mentioned Brandon had a 136 Ops plus JD Martinez is still out there Michael Lorenzen is Eddie Rosario a Fallout of what's left on the market a minor league deal for a guy who was NLCS MVP and accolades Galore and can get hot as anybody Eddie Rosario giella Tim Anderson even we've seen a number of players have to accept lesser deals because it's late in the off season teams are basically Dro in the hammer now I will say this it pains me to see what is happening with those remaining players I don't know what they've asked for I don't know if their expectations were too high and yet at the same time as we go forward here as we see these players come off the board or not it does bother me that this is happening now I'll qualify by saying it happens every year there are always players weeded out of the system it's just the natural course of baseball but with the game skewing ever younger it seems to be happening maybe even more than it has in the past I don't have numbers to quantify that it's just a feeling that I have and it's two things again I don't know what these guys have asked for and I don't know if they're being in the eyes of teams unreasonable or Beyond where they should be and at the same time it's a situation where with this does happen it's not that unusual to see players certain players undervalued in every Market it it does happen every year it's just disturbing to see qualified players and I'll go through a list fam Duval Michael a Taylor Michael Lorenz these guys were all legitimate Major Leaguers Brandon Bell you just mentioned him and yet they're out there JD Martinez is another one they're just waiting and I don't know that it's going to get any better for any of them maybe an injury would help but I don't know that it's going to change much it hurts when I'm watching spring training games I'm like that's their starting outfield for certain teams that's their fourth outfielder and then we see moves like this so I'll tie this into the Orioles part of your notes column Baltimore I get it they have a roster crunch with how many talented young players they have most of the other teams need to be looking up these players so what did you think of of what Baltimore's got going right now and obviously the Log Jam that they have and them being in my mind allowed to not shop in these Waters just like the Mariners I would say are probably the only team that I would go you know what they don't need a starter they're good right now Scott you're absolutely right first of all that there are a number of teams that could need or use any number of these players that I just mentioned let's face it these are upgrades over what you have and if you pay them a little bit more than you maybe want to well your team gets better hello as for the Orioles it's a fascinating Camp because they have these infielders just coming out of the woodwork actually not the woodwork they're all on top 100 Prospect list for the most part and they're gonna have a lot of hard decisions because you have your Rookie of the Year gunar Henderson he'll be somewhere on the left side of the infield you've got the number one Prospect in the game Jackson holiday who still stands a good chance of opening the season with the club he's 20 years old you've got Urus you've got mato you've got Westberg and that's not even counting a guy like Kobe Mayo who tore it up a double A and Triple A last year and is barely even in this conversation then you move to the Outfield they've got kirad they've got Colton cower and they've got Kyle Stowers and these guys are all right on the doorstep but they've got Cedric mes Austin Hayes and Anthony send ahead of them so if you're the oros you're in a great spot and the only problem that they're going to have is disappointing someone their players now fans might say well make a trade make another trade you barely were even dented by the burns trade which is true but it's harder to make a trade this time of year we see them but it's pretty rare we see deals late in spring training or round opening day not unprecedented but my goodness what team is going to give up another starting pitcher right now they all need and are hoarding their starting pitchers so come the deadline I expect them to be a force again the Orioles depending on where they are in the standings I feel like if you're super rich in the world and you're interested in buying a franchise this is a team to Target right now oh wait that's happening so hey that new ownership group has too late has some nice toys to play with it's going to be a really fun ride for them you might take over a team and give them a title this or next year so that would be a nice way to welcome yourself to the city a little bit more with authority so um Ken thanks for the time great to see you and we'll catch you again soon thanks guys thank you Ken Rosenthal ft senior Insider hey everybody be sure to like And subscribe for more content we're back here every weekday all year long so do not miss an episode the videos are coming in all day here's another video you might enjoy baseball the way it should be [Music] covered