Betting Tips, Trends & Predictions For ALL Matches In Round 27 | 2024 NRL Season

Overall NRL Betting Trends hey everyone welcome to the invest NRL round 27 betting preview video final round of the Season I'm super excited to run through all the matches coming up this weekend go through the batting Trends who's been covering what the odds were in their last meetings and what the total points have been have they have their games been going over under the total and go through what I'm considering betting in these games and the reasons why that's the case and you've been following along throughout the season you know we do that through using statistics and D of these teams performances and look for Value in the markets so final round of the Season we pretty much if we look at the ladder the top four is pretty much locked in it'd be very unlikely to see much change here storm already locked in top spot Panthers likely secure the second spot roosters who were hit with a couple of injuries last week and sharks will fight out third and fourth and obviously sharks um could potentially drop down to fifth however that would require the Sharks losing their game to Manley by around the 30 to 40 points and the Bulldogs beating the Cowboys by a similar margin to reverse that for and against which does seem very unlikely with the outs for the Bulldogs this week and then playing the Cowboys outside of that fifth to eth is definitely interesting and some changes could happen here Manley can obviously move up if they beat the Sharks Cowboys Bulldogs go head-to-head and the winner of that game will secure a home elimination final and then we have the battle for eighth spot between the Dolphins and knights which is the final game of the round the winner of that matchup locks in a spot in the finals so that's a really really great game to end the season on the only way one of those two sides don't lock in top lock in a spot in the top eight is if this matchup here between the Dolphins and knights ends in a draw and either the dragons win their game or the Raiders win their game one of those two sides would take that eighth position before we get into this weekend's games I want to quickly recap what happened last week um so there was a round of really high scoring matches but only four games went over the total points line so therefore four went under but pretty much majority of matches all total of 50 plus points we had 68 in the opening game between the cowboy storm 56 in the Bulldog seagull games slightly lower scoring at 46 in the Panthers rabitos 34 of them coming through penth extremely high scoring 84 points between the eels and Dragons I didn't haven't checked it but that' be nearly um if not is the highest scoring game of the season dragons trying to make a big comeback there dolphins are big winners over the Broncos 46 points 58 in the Sharks Warriors game Knights Titans equal the 50 and then a low scoring game to end the round between the roosters and Raiders home teams won 5 the8 Games underdogs had to a really really good week um they covered six of the eight the only two favorites to cover the spread were the Panthers against the rabitos who are big big favorites and then uh the knights who were close to double digit favorites against the Gold Coast Titans all the other games the underdog covered the spread The Underdogs also won five matchups over last weekend the storm were the only underdog if you you know minus the numbers the storm were the only underdog who covered the spread but didn't win the game losing by eight up in Townsville against the Cowboys so now if we move forward to this weekend um there's a few kind of tricky games that are going to just be like sort of interesting few games where we're going to use them to look ahead as to how these teams will perform in finals and just an overall interesting round so let's get into it opening game between Broncos vs Storm the Broncos and the Melbourne storm at Sun cob Stadium on Thursday night storm were - 82 on Monday and then since lineups have come out that's um dropped pushed right out to -42 as it currently stands total at 51 a half points so still big favorites to win this game pretty much all their players that they rested last week against the Cowboys come back into the lineup they do lose Ryan penous so he's going to be out with injury but looking at these lineups uh the Melbourne storm should win this game and win it comfortably um they obviously pushed the Cowboys for an eight Point margin last week down a lot of players still managed 30 points in this game um I don't think they're going to have any issue beating the Broncos who were playing for their season last week to secure a spot in the top eight but only managed six points and conceded 40 against redcliff it's hard to see like the Broncos coming out here and really showing much of it I think the storm may just run right through him Mel have a very very good record against them winning 15 of the past 16 they've covered 12 of the past 15 even though the Broncos have covered the past two they met at uh in Melbourne earlier this season in round five with storm winning 34 points to 32 I think the margin this time around is going to be a lot greater uh storm this is like a real um game where they can generate a lot of confidence going into finals against a team that looks to be lacking a lot of confidence and after halime last week against the Dolphins um really didn't show lot I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Melbourne run up a score here I like them to be winning this game winning it comfortably lean on it being a high scoring game earli this season the total is 39 and a half it's up to 51 a half for this game Broncos games this season have majority of the time been highs scoring and storm are capable um and one of the highest scoring teams in the competition if we bring up the BET Fighters for this game um you know storm average just under 20 28 points a game in the second highest scoring team in first halfes leaning on this being highest scoring game so looking at the total points going over and then storm to be winning first game on Friday night is the battle for the Wooden Spoons so the Tigers vs Eels loser of this game will finish last on the ladder this season if we bring up the ladder again know ears Tigers both on 18 competition points so whoever gets the points for this game if it ends in a draw then Tigers will stay last currently the odds for this game paramet small favorites $164 on the money line minus 32 points and the total is 49 and a half from a historical perspective um the Tigers have covered the past four verse par and the line has pretty much been getting closer with each meeting so back in round 6 2022 there 21 and a half Point underdogs then down to 14 1/2 12 and 1/2 7 and 1/2 in the round four meeting this season where they won that game outright and then down to plus three and a half for the game this weekend so the gap between these two teams has been closing param have won nine of the past 11 versus the Tigers the two wins the Tigers had were both by one point so this win here by one and then back in 2022 by 1.21 to20 as $1050 underdogs for that matchup it's a bit of a weird situation here for the Tigers they had the buy last week they come back to play this game and then it's the end of the season so how they turn up is obviously you know a bit of a tricky situation to predict but I think with the fact that they can get themselves off the bottom of the ladder they have a soldout stadium I saw uh yesterday for this game so they'll have their support to give themselves the best chance of win I think they will turn up they' put together back-to-back WIS heading into their bu beating Manley and South Sydney obviously they are helped with the S bins against the seagull to win that game um but still won the by eight points and scored 34 in that game which as you know the lowest scoring side in the competition they only average uh exactly 19 points a game that was a good performance heading into their buy they come into this fresh the eels as well coming to this in you know obviously not great form but better than what you could say majority of the season has been they put up 44 points against the dragons last week winning that game 44 to 40 and then the week pra they did have a 16-point lead against Brisbane before the Broncos came back to win that game by six points my thoughts on this game I do kind of get the feeling it's going to be a close game and going to come down to the wire so at the spread i' be leaning towards the Tigers I'd prefer a plus 4 and 1/2 then a plus three and 1/2 there's really no difference in plus three and a/2 to plus 2 and 1/2 so look for the better number you know if you're considering that as a bit but on a head-to-head I feel like you know the eels may be a to grab this one but I don't think there's going to be a great deal between them I'd be looking at like the either side to win by 1 to 10 1 to 12 and I'm also expecting this to be a high scoring game total at 49 a half 10 of the past 12 between these two sides have gone over eels are coming off at 84o game last week a 54 point game the week prior 52 the week prior to that then a 70 point game the week prior and a 50 point game the week prior to that in round 22 against New Zealand so their past five have all been plus point games then the West tigers are coming off a 60o game prior to the buy against Manley then prior to that they're in a low scoring game against the rabitos but that's kind of been the rabitos trend of recent times and the Tigers just did enough to win that game and then if you go back through then I won't bother reading them all out but majority there 6 to seven plus weeks prior to that were all real high scoring games these are the two worst defensive sides in the competition they both conceive 30 points on average and you know as we saw last week with the eels dragons just were running in tries late in that game Left Right and Center so they can concede points very very quickly so i' definitely be looking at that over 49 and a half points Rabbid Rabbitohs vs Roosters o versus roosters The Roosters minus 10 a half they're a128 to win this game total at 53 and a half four of the past five between these two sides have gone under historically the these have been lowc scoring games the matchup earli this season kind of went against that Trend with the roosters putting up 48 points to the rabbito six as only three and a half Point favorite so there's a much bigger spread for them for this game the rabitos have lost six straight games coming into this last week losing to penr and the roosters dropped their first game in a month by two points last week against camber now the key for this game Roost is obviously going to be without Sam walk and Brandon Smith who are are really key players in their spine and you know with those inju injuries it's going to be really difficult to see them going on to win the Premiership so um that really opens it up now for the storm Panthers and sharks as the real genuine chances this season and as we spoken about in previous videos how important it is to finish in the top four to win the Premiership in the NRL um there are a few teams outside of that top four mainly the bulldog from a defensive perspective who could give themselves a chance as defense is um one of the key factors for winning the Premiership um but just not not sure the Bulldogs have enough points in them as well um regardless of how strong they are defensively are to beat a storm or penri side for this game is probably going to be one I'm not going to bet into even though the roosters have won he covered the past three vers South Sydney and South Sydney were my team that I was fading this season I'm not going to you know keep driving that point home my my gut feeling of this matchup is it's going to be the opportunity for the roosters to try some things heading into finals they're obviously going to need to make pretty massive adjustments to um their style to overcome those two key injuries that they have and this is the week where they're going to test to do that so I don't really want to be involved with them as big favorites as much as I think they're going to win this game and they're probably like be hard like rabitos just aren't a good enough side to beat them unless the roosters just don't turn up at all and the other kind of awkward thing for the roosters is that you know it doesn't really matter whether they win or lose this game they're going to be in the top four regardless you know they could decide well we want to win this game and play penth next week or you know we're happy to lose and play the storm in week one I don't know what the thinking is you know with the team from that perspective but one thing I do know is they're going to be trying different strategies to get things working and rolling going into finals and you know with a game that it doesn't matter whether they win or lose this is the perfect opportunity to do that I'd be leaning towards the under 53 and a half had to you know decide you know what are you going to bet on in this game just because don't like the rabbito attack at all um they haven't conceded they haven't scored sorry over 16 points since round 20 which was against the West tigers um so that is now six straight games where they failed to do that and they have played you know a couple of easy opposition during that time and you know roosters even though they do concede points quite a high rate for a side that's in the top four you know against such a bad attacking side they should be able to shut them down fairly comfortably and they have done that recently probably if I had to pick a bet because potentially like the rooster's attack just you know keeps on firing I'd rather the rabido team total under when I had a quick look it was set at 20 and a half I'd lean towards the under as a potential play in this game but it's not one you know I'm going to be really heavily betting into for the reasons that I mentioned first game on Saturday afternoon the dragons take on the Raiders St George three and a half Dragons vs Raiders Point favorites $162 on the money line 50 a half is the total for this game the dragons have covered the past six ver Cambra even though camra have won the past three so interesting Trends going to this that means you when you look at that the Raiders have just just been our favorit all majority of those games and you can see the dragons all these games they've covered have been as an underdog um their last win against camber was round 16 2022 they're at home here coming off uh kind of an embarrassing loss the dragons coach Shane Flanigan was really unimpressed if you saw the postgame press conference and some of the footage around the dragons last week particularly with their first half um how they came out out and was getting hammered by the ears throughout that first half and the game was you know I guess most teams over at that point just the fact that it was against the eels the dragons were able to you know work their way back and make it close towards the end so that's now back-to-back losses the winner of this game will be inside the top eight but then the winner of the Dolphins Newcastle game will then go overtake them so kind of the winner of this game is relying on that game being a draw to make finals but um it's unlikely like either of these two sides are going to do a great deal of damage even though camber have beaten roosters and Panthers over the past two weeks so um they're giving themselves their best shot at making it um with two big wins there um they lose Elliot Whitehead through suspension but they do get Jamal fogy and Ethan strange back into their lineup this week um so these are two very big ends their halfback and 58 which does give them a shot of winning um the homes team has a really good record in this matchup winning 10 of the past 13 so that sets up well for the dragons how I'm looking at playing this game I'm also looking at the dragons on the first half I think after last week the emphasis for St George is going to be how they come out in the first half and when I was going through the stats I noticed that the Raiders are the second worst attacking first half side and they're also ranked 12th defensively in the first half so the Dragon potentially could really get the jump here on camera and then camera looks to come back at them late so that's like from a betting perspective how I'm most likely looking at playing this game from a full game perspective I think the slight value is with camber I think $160 for the dragons is a Touch Too Short have them more at the $1.75 to1 85 range so this game more so the dragons being a half Point onepoint favorite as opposed to close to a try favorite and at the total at 15 a half eight of the past 12 head-to-head have gone under I think I'd be leaning towards this game being under my numbers closer to the 45 for these two sides however you know the dragons are a side who've been leaking points over recent times I'm giving up 44 last week against the eels and 38 against the Sharks the week prior looking at those numbers like they definitely need to pick up defensively so for this game dragon first half potentially Raiders for the full game with a little bit of value there but prefer the first half then we Bulldogs vs Cowboys have the Bulldogs vers Cowboys Bulldogs $170 minus 2 and a half Point favorites here winner of this game secures home elimination final the loser it will depend whether the seagull beat the sharks in the uh game on Sunday this is a really really interesting game um kind of two differentiating game styles going up against each other the Bulldogs are real defensive minded side the Cowboys real Attack minded side and you know their opposite side of that equation isn't that great kind of mid pack or slightly worse so kind of have to decide which way you want to go the only issue I have with the Bulldogs Matt Burton being out I think is a big out for them and does affect their attacking ability quite considerably with his kicking game and so I would be leaning towards the Cowboys as an underdog not sure if I want to play it at this stage they do have a really good record vers Bulldogs in terms of covering the spread they've covered six off the past seven the past four meetings have been split three of those decided by two points or less so they're meeting in round 20 this season the Cowboys won by two points then the Bulldogs won by one point last season then back round one 2022 the Bulldogs won in a very low scoring game 6. to4 overall seven of the past nine between these sides have gone under including the past four games with the total at 47 originally when I was looking at this game I was leaning towards going over that number if buron was playing then I'd definitely be going with the over and I'm still you know not completely against it uh the Bulldogs games have definitely started taking on a trory of being higher scoring against Manley last week they conceded 34 points they put up 34 the week prior against New Zealand 30 against the Dolphins 28 against the dragons so you know their recent games have been higher scoring the Cowboys games is here um one after the other is just consistently are very very high scoring think how I like to play this game I like the Cowboys as underdogs and slight lean towards the over but not super confident on that side final game on Saturday night the Panthers vs Titans Panthers big favorites here- 165 do3 against the Gold Coast Titans have won the past five against go coast and all things being equal win this game once again they've scored 40 points in their last meeting which was round 25 last season on the goal Coast prior that 18 then 48 points uh the Panthers have pretty much been Recon converted tries or more favorites and you know very close to um Dollar in the odds over those past 3 minut so we're getting a little bit more this time around there is still ation for penth to be winning this game if you look at the ladder here they're on 38 points but their points difference at 180 this means that if the roosters and sharks both win then penth won't get a home final and they'll drop down to Fourth if obviously one of these sides win then they'll at least drop down to third due to that points differential so penth have to be winning this game I think they're going to win it and Win It comfortably Titans since they won the game against the Broncos in round 22 I spoke about it back then that was their grand final since then have just completely dropped off 44 n against the Sharks 32-6 against the dragons 4822 against the roosters and then 36 to4 last week against Newcastle penrith run up a score win this game comfortably wouldn't surpris me to see them cover the spread Titans are looking for the end of the season the home side has a really good record in this matchup covering seven of the past nine and with the past four meetings all being played as goal Coast Titans home games uh it hasn't been since 2019 that goal coach have had to travel down to play penth in penth um so this is kind of foreign territory for them as well that's a number of Seasons since doing so and yeah would surpris see penth win this game by know that 30 points they bounced back to form last week with a big win over the rabitos and I think it's a kind of similar situation here expect that probably be covering that spread even though it is a big number and it wouldn't surprised me to see their team total go over I'd also be looking at the Titans team total to go under the number the only thing is penth have given up two inep tries in the past two weeks against CRA and the rabbitors and so you know if they could stop doing that you know that'll also help limit the opposition scoring first game on Sunday the Manley seagull against the Sea Eagles vs Sharks Sharks Manley one and a half Point favor us around $180 to be winning this game and first thing I'll say is I am surprised manly is is favorite um the sharks have a really good record against them first of all they've covered five of the past six against the seagulls and they've won three of the past four they hav met this season was round 21 last year where mainly won 30 points to 26 but the Sharks were do 35 for that game so to have them all the way out to more than even money as underdogs for this game is very very surprising mainly coming to this winning three of their past four games they've also won six of their past eight um but did drop games against roosters and the West Tigers during that span sharks come into this game um their full game losing streak ended last week losing against the Warriors but feel like that game like they're leading 22 to4 at halim and then Warriors dominated possession in the second half think was around 65 is percent possession sharks C A simin and also they lost the set restart and penalty count 8 to1 I'm pretty sure was the final number for the second half so so all those factors considered like the warriors were kind of entitled to overrun them but probably you know the Sharks should have won that game at the end of the day that was a game that they should have put them away do think um they bounced back here they have a really good record against the seagull mly have two major outs for this game in Tom trovich which I've spoken about over the past few weeks especially if you've been watching the tri scorer video as well Tomic makes Major Impact to the seagull attack there you know massive increase in scoring coincides with his performances when you watch them play the amount he does get involved in their attack is technically very impressive for a fullback you don't see that as many fullbacks getting that involved in the game as he has a tendency to do and they also without Jon sa who is the leading Tri scorer on the wiek so those two outs you know one being full back and the other being on the wing but being a high TR scorer on the wing I think are definitely going to make an impact and then the sharks are pretty close back to full strength they get milal back in the lineup nicker Hines this will be his second game back a bit out of fitness and getting back custom with the game Trindle has been back for a few weeks now I think the Sharks will be ready to put in a really good performance heading into finals and they'll be disappointed with the way that they lost the game last week so more than happy taking sharks as an underdog here on the money line from a total at 49 a half I'll be leaning towards the over on this number but I definitely prefer the side seven of the past 10 head-to-head have gone over at a number under 50 in mainly games this year I'd always be happy taking overs just week after week they're involved in high scoring games both these sides top six attacking sides they're also both pretty good defensively but in recent times have definitely been scoring conceding a few more points I think sharks are the better defensive side if we look at the overall ratings canalo ranked fifth defensively Manley ranked sixth in points conceded one of the other key metrics I look at as meters ConEd per play sharks ranked fourth in that category whereas seagulls ranked 15th this means that Kola should control field position in this game and get plenty of attacking chances that even uh strengthens my um confidence in them winning this game then final game of the round will depend on what the top eight Knights vs Dragons looks like it's between the knights at home to the redcliff Dolphins Newcastle small favorites here earlier in the week minus1 half 1.72 a little bit more money to come for them they minus 2 a half as it currently stands and the total is 48 and a half both e sides coming to this off big wins Newcastle with a big win over the Gold Coast Titans making it three of their pass four in the only game they lost against the sharks in Golden points there in pretty good form and dolphins you know had been floundering they lost five of their six games and then really hit form last week running over the brisland Bronx are so kind of with that game you have to decide whether you think the Dolphins put in a really good performance or the Broncos would just really really bad I'd be leaning towards side there's an element of Truth to both of those things uh the Dolphins have covered two of the past three verse nice they've had the three matchups Newcastle have won the past two two of the three three meetings went over the total points line total here is 482 442 was the previous total in a regular game I'd be leaning towards the over this game was being played at any other time but for this match uh being with so much on the line defense is going to have to play an important role uh we've known all year long the knights rely on the defense they're one of the lowest scoring teams in the competition but are pretty good defensively whereas the Dolphins are a high scoring team but only an average or slightly worse team defensively if I had to pick a side for this game even though it's being played down in Newcastle I do give the Dolphins a big chance as an underdo here they've won their only meeting down there 36 points to 20 last season round three they were 4 and a half Point favorites for this that game they're underdogs here plus one and A2 we get plus 2 and 1/2 or a little bit more money for the knives out to plus 4 and 1 half that'd be really ideal but I think the Dolphins can get over the line here they have the attack to win this game think Newcastle have been slightly favored by a easy schedule of recent times those three wins when I said they've won three they past four have being against Gold Coast rabitos and the West Tigers now if you look at the lad you have Gold Coast rabitos and West Tigers three of the bottom four teams on the ladder they did push the sharks with the sharks winning that game in Golden point I think that's that recent form's not quite as good as it potentially looks if you look at their win loss margins Dolphins you know obviously they're not in the greatest form two of their past three have been against Melbourne and canbury though which they lost both of those games but I think you know with benett coaching think he'll have strategy for them to get over the nights here so Dolphins there to be winning the last game quickly recap all the selections Broncos vers storm like the storm to win the game big and lean on it being a higher scoring game and potenti particularly from melbour Tigers eels who get a slightly better number on the plus for the Tigers that be leaning towards that also definitely keen on the over in that game rabido rusus probably a staya away game uh lean towards the under 53 and a half particularly the rabitos team total going under dragons Raiders like the dragons to be winning the first half here as clearly the better first half side of these two sides but I'm definitely respecting the recent form of the Raiders Bulldogs versus Cowboys like the Cowboys as underdogs on the road against the Bulldogs Panthers versus Titans expect penth to win this game and win a big seagulls vers sharks like the Sharks as an underdog against Manley and like the Dolphins as an underdog against the knights to close out the season really appreciate you guys following along and watching all season I appreciate your support and following the channel hopefully these videos each week have helped level up your betting over the year I've definitely had some feedback that a lot of people have turned around their betting this season on the NRL and actually been looking at games from a different perspective as they were previously so that was my goal with posting these videos I'm going to keep on posting them right throughout the finals still have you know this round and then nine finals matches still to go still plenty of football um coming up posting videos each week and if you want to use the batf finders to study your bats use it for analyzing the games and also the TR scorers as we close in on the final few games of the Season I'll put the link in the description for you guys to access that check it out see what's in there and then prepare yourself for next year because every season of the NRL is the opportunity to be making money so really really exciting times few big games coming up also starting up my American Sports YouTube channel which I'll put the link to that in the description as well that's where I'm going to be posting videos talking about the NFL games which the NFL season starts this Friday I'm going to be posting videos for those matches going through similar things that I do in this video the starts the betting Trends the player props all the similar kind of stuff for the NFLs definitely check that out if you're interested or you're just interested in learning more about it before taking the Pune and a betting wi must definitely you know if you're a fan of the NRL along those very similar lines and you know I'll pass on like what I've learned over the years of betting on it as well and also I nearly forgot the Tricor video I'm going to be recording that on Wednesday this week already gone through and done a little bit of research just before recording this for the tri scorers this week um were profitable again last week if you follow the staking strategy it's kind of been the trend of the tri scores the Thursday night Friday and Saturday games we absolutely crush it and then kind of when struggling to hit the Sunday games other than one week where we hit all the tri scores on the Sunday it's kind of being that pattern so you definitely don't want to wait until the last minute to watch that video so make sure you're subscribe for the channel you have notifications on so when that TriCore video gets posted you get notified you can watch it straight away and lock in those early bets especially as we're predicting high scoring games in the Broncos storm high scoring in the Tigers eels um it's especially as those first early games and we have seen the dragons Raiders game um those sides be in high scoring matchups of recent times as well but with that being said definitely keep an eye out for when those posted really appreciate you guys watching make sure you tune in for the finals and I'll see you in the tricrow video coming up soon [Music]