AFL & NRL Best Bets | Adelaide vs Geelong | Warriors vs Raiders | Roosters vs Souths

hey guys welcome to the Friday night footy Best Bets video I'm going to cover both the AFL and the NRL in one video because I have two plays for the NRL and two plays for the AFL tonight we'll start with the NRL the early matchup the Warriors are back at home against Cambra Warriors yet to get a win on the board this season they struggled against the sharks in their opening game and then uh unlucky you could say to lose against storm last week it's going to be interesting how they come through through that matchup it can either make or break teams in a way they can come out flat the following week because of the dis hardening of that loss or they can bounce back I have a feeling they're going to be more so leaning to the side of bouncing back because they're at home in a winnable matchup and for that reason what I'm how I'm going to play this game is I'm going to take uh either team to win by less than 12 and 1 half points so basically either team to win by up to 12 at $175 that's Ned under the winning margin markets triy bet 1 to 12 the few reasons why I'm going are with this bet in this game uh historically the games between these two sides have been close of the last seven matchups six of them have been decided by the 1 to 12 margin then last season CRA pretty much when they win they win by 1 to 12 all 13 wins were by that margin and 10 of the Warriors 17 wins were by 1 to 12 then when we also look at the these two sides uh Cambra have been the better attacking side and the better defensive side so I think they're going to be able to hang around in this game they're also going at 90% completion rate through their opening games therefore um they're not going to give up many easy opportunities to the Warriors um teams with really bad completion rates can get blown out teams with high completion rates tend not to so I think the Raiders are going to be able to keep this game close Warriors should be able to win but I don't think it's any value in the $1 40ish that they priced out to win the game therefore um going with either team one to 12 but leaning towards the Warriors to win then in the other game later on the roosters take on the rabitos I feel like this one is fairly straightforward I'd be surprised if the roosters were to lose this matchup um both teams are missing key players loas been dropped for the rabbito so um they got the replacement halfback coming in and then Luke out for the roosters which is probably the bigger loss of the two um but the roosters have been the better of these two sides um beat the Broncos in week one and then if we use the Broncos as the form line uh through both of these sides uh the roost has beat them over Vegas and then the rabitos were smashed by them last week and the Broncos completed really poorly uh in that matchup so rabitos technically had their chance to win roosters have a good recent record against the rabido so I'm definitely happy to take them to win this match up you can get a $167 at points bet reason why I'm taking the $167 and not the minus 2 and a half orus three and a half which it is at most places on the line is just because just in case this is a close game um most places like - 2 and a half andus 3 and a half there's really nothing between them um it's very rare teams win games by three points so therefore you're effectively looking at the rooster to win by four or more more and I'd rather not pay um the 23 cents extra for the minus three and a half line H we getting $167 um for them just to win the game outright so I'm going with the roosters they're the better defensive of the two and uh from attacking perspective I prefer them in this matchup so those are the two NRL plays going with Warriors Raiders either Team 1 to 12 on the tri bet and then roosters to beat the rabbit at a167 now over in the AFL the match up tonight Adelaide at home take on the jalong cats Adelaide were pretty disappointing in the opening round against the go Coast Suns they get back home where they have a good record and start favorite for this game I think they should be winning and the home team has performed really really well in this matchup historically if we look at the betting Trends um for this matchup previously um we'll not Noti that the home team has covered 12 of the past 15 and 117 of the past 21 um so that's good news for the crows um but don't really love them at the minus 12 a half but I think I'd lean if I was tipping in this game on a you know for a tipping competition I'd be tipping uh the crows to win but the bet I want to go with I'm going to take the over 171 and a half so at tab $190 over 171 A2 uh six of the past eight between these two sides have gone over the total uh both sides are top five attacking sides averaged over 90 points last season per game Crow at 95.3 jalong at 90.8 um both high in goal scored um both teams are kind of weak in defensive efficiency so goals per inside 50 for the opposition ranked nth the crows and ranked 13th and 16th for scoring shots per inside 50 so if these sides kick accurately this game should go over this total fairly comfortably and if we look at their opening round form uh firstly jalong put up 76 points against saints who performed well against Collingwood to win that game last night so that's a good little form reference there for the cats being able to score and then also the crow game they only scored 54 points against goast which I'm kind of happy about because it's keeping uh this total lower than what it really should be and obviously that game was affected by weather conditions which were a little bit unexpected when you looked at the forecast so definitely happy with over uh 171 a half points to be scored and then the other bet I'm going with is a four leg same game multi uh the players that I'm going to take in this one are Rory lad 25 plus disposals you look at the betting trends for the players um so his average from last season and the beginning of the season is 29 disposals and he's consistently cleared this 25 plus Mark going at 74% across all games um so all the ones in the dark aren or he's had 25 or more disposals uh next going with Matt Crouch he had 33 in the opening round and he's had 26 or more or effectively 25 more but it has been 26 or more in the past six matchups then the third leg Jordan D 20 or more disposals so Dawson 20 plus of all the games over the past season and the first round you only missed it in two occasions had 18 and 19 um but is averaging 27 disposals per game across that time and then the final leg we're going with Mitch Duncan 20 plus averages 22 and a half and fairly similar boat but in recent history has consistently been clearing that number and does average just just over 22 disposals in his career against Adelaide across 15 games uh from memory so uh that four leg multi pays $230 if one leg loses then you get your bet back as a bonus bet up to $50 uh with that same game multi cover with Neds I'll be posting plenty of bets for the AFL and NRL right throughout the season not just win loss total points but also player props for the AFL and NRL so make sure you're subscribed um go through preview matchups identify which other right bets to be making um using statistics and data you probably noticed with these videos if you watched any of the other ones as well a lot of the decisions I make and the bets that I'm putting on are based on historical data and how that transitions into the matchup and the situation for the upcoming game it's not just based on my gut feeling or teams I like players I like or don't like um it's based on using information to make those decisions so that's something that interests you and you can see that being strategic with the bets that you put on allows you to make money um then definitely follow along and that's what I've been able to do for the past 12 years now it's going into to also coming up tomorrow there is in the horse racing are six Group One races that's the highest tier of racing in Australia there's six of those across Sydney and Melbourne tomorrow and it's a pretty heavy betting day uh I have a thing called the racing show which is where I post all my horse racing bets and for me personally horse racing has been even more profitable over the last 10 years than even Sports batting because there's way more mistakes in the market on horse racing like for example when you're looking at sports here we're identifying players and teams where you know for example The Roosters game that we spoke about earlier on the roosters are $167 I have the roosters pric at around the $150 Mark for this game so I'm happy to take them at a167 however when it comes to horse racing there's so many horses you can find that are priced at $3 where they're more so $2 $220 chance or they're at $220 and they're more so $150 60 chance and so you like basically getting double the payer because there's so many mistakes in the market you just can't go in and try and bet in every race what I do is I go through and pick and choose which races I want to bet into and over the past two years or just over two years now of sharing all my bets with members who are part of the racing show we've made 1,300 units profit so if you're a $50 better that's 5 grand tax-free profit over the past two and a bit years and all you have to do is about Wednesday and Saturday and I send out the bets the day before and then you log in place those bets and then um let the races unfold it's not something where you know you're having to sit in front of the TV or in front of the computer for eight hours every Saturday trying to put the bets on you've already put your bets in for Saturday on a Friday and everything's all locked in because that's one of the things that I do to be able to get uh the best prices for certain horses and also it takes the emotion out so many people lose money betting because they get so emotional and caught up in the moment because that race just before lost now I got to quickly bet into this next race but win I got to get my $50 back because I just lost 50 on and you know there's a couple in a row and that lose to say you've lost four in a row you're like crap now I'm down 200 let me put $50 on a $5 shot so I can get that $200 back and then that just cycle contines so you don't ever have to worry about going through that because of the way um we bet in the racing show so if you haven't heard about it make sure I'll put a link in the description actually of uh this video so you can easily go check it out I post all the results of every single bet I'm putting on so it's not just I'm saying we've made 1300 units you can actually go through and view the result of every single bet for like date stamped how much or how many units we had on it at what price and see all the results so um definitely if Hors racing something you're interested in or more importantly if you just want to make money from your betting accounts um definitely check that out but hope you guys have a great weekend enjoy the sports enjoy the racing I'll be posting a video tomorrow morning with my Best Bets for the Saturday games and then another video on Sunday morning for my Best Bets for the Sunday games so make sure you subscribe so you don't and have your notifications on so you don't miss uh any of those uh talk to you guys soon