UFC 306 Predictions O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Full Card Betting Breakdown

UFC 306 the sphere om Ali versus deash takes place this weekend and I'm going to go through the entire card starting with the early prelims ending with the main event giving my prediction and breakdown for every single fight on the card and oh my God what a Monumental once- in a-lifetime card this is I've never seen anything as stacked as this before I'm going to start with the early prelim opener of Ral roses Jr versus aori Chang actually a decent one R roses Jr is a prospect in the sport um had a little bit of a setback against Christian Rodriguez but Christian Rodriguez can be a problem especially at 135 when he misses weight by5 and has a weight advantage over all of them at 145 he hasn't had as much success um where he can't you know just wait Billy everyone but um R roses Jr C Rod's a good fighter very technical very well trained out of a good gym ruus is Duke Rufus is his trainer you know I mean the Pet his brothers they've brought up some good guys before um Ral roses junor I think he's going to beat aori Chang little bit of a layup for him you know I mean and I understand it aori Chang is dangerous and he is powerful just because he's me like me of Mexican heritage I don't think we're going to be looking at a chin problem now also by the look of his chin don't think we're going to be looking at a chin problem from Ral roses Jr the guy turns to the side he looks like a [ __ ] Half cresant Moon um you know looks like a DreamWorks Fisherman's about to sit on the tip of it and go fishing in a cloud you know what I mean so I'm going to go with aori Chang losing this one by being out grappled you know we've seen aori Chang lose to some Fighters that I wouldn't even really describe as extremely talented um 25 and 11 I mean it's a tough one isn't it it really is a tough one Johnny monoz Jr he got a win over uh lost to Daniel Marcos but it was an unintentional groin strike but he was losing the fight anyway and then Jay perin I don't rate him Cameron else I don't rate him Duran beat up on him Jeff Molina beat him up as well that was at 125 chin a little bit more sus there but amen zahab put him away not that long ago I'm just seeing too many losses too frequently I need another Rising Prospect to give Ral roses Jr problems like if he was going up against a Montel Jackson who's a rising Prospect with a ton of experience I'd feel some type of way about it maybe if he fought one of the Basher at Bros I'd feel some type of way about it maybe if thought and have one of these prospects coming up at bantamweight like a Payton tabot maybe then that's where you pick against him but against these types of opponents I think you can trust in R roses Jr to go out there and maybe chin him but also probably get the grappling going early and put that Relentless Pace on him and get the submission win first or second round for R roses Jr I'm going with him to get the job done meep meep we move on up the card Edgar shayz versus Joshua van again I'm going to need a slightly better level of opponent to beat Joshua van now Charles Johnson um is good you know what I mean he he gives close fights to tough guys he beats some decent guys in a division but often has a setback that just prevents him from getting into those rankings that seem to have eluded him his entire career um this is a two-month turnaround since the KO from Charles Johnson I don't like that but Edgar shayz ain't really a guy with like huge knockout power he has some finishes early in his career but he's more of like a submission guy you know he has submission armar um he got a submission in his second fight he has another armar finish a rear naked choke finish finished a guy with a body kick once other than that I'm seeing AK finish with a punch and other than that it was a flying knee in his debut and it's just not against the same level of competition so you know I'm I'm going to go with him not beating Joshua van I don't see Joshua van getting submitted here I think it's going to be a standup fight and I think if it is I'll go with Joshua van getting this one done plus something that makes me sort of more okay with the quick turnaround after being koed is the fact that he is a very small Flyway so he's not really a guy that drains himself to make the division you know what I mean so I'll actually go over Joshua van decision here a little bit more of a patient approach sort of see out that first round get the explosiv explosiveness out the way and then start working into the fight in the second and third so I'll go Joshua van Joshua van getting this one by decision I like that he doesn't have to wait drain you know I mean this isn't um who was another example I used of this there was a fighter that got KO that then moved down a division and it was just like what are you doing you're going to get chinned and it was a worrying one so um but yeah I'm going to go with this I Justified it with Pereira as well remember he got koed by Adisa and then he moved up to fight yam bovich an even powerful more powerful Striker than is RA desano and I was like well he's not going to do the same level of weight cut so it's not like the brain's going to be under that much pressure and he has to go through that you know central nervous system trauma of a weight cut again so I'm going to go Joshua van we move on Yasmin yurui versus uh I believe her name is Katlin Souza there you go um I'm going to go Yasmin yurui other than her loss where she got chinned not that long ago by um Denise Gomez who is just you know sometimes skill can only take you so far in the sport especially in women's MMA sometimes you just got to be you know what I'm saying uh yasmini will get this one done she's a way more technical fighter she was actually a really good Prospect as well you know she bounced back after that loss got a win maybe if she was coming off a KO loss I wouldn't mind the idea of an upset here but she got a win back got it done she's had good wins in the UFC lendo Nunes Sam Hughes isn't that good but she's beaten some decent she's got some wins in the UFC you know she's not just someone losing all the time um she's fraud checked a couple of Fighters for example I'm going to have to go with Yasmin lot of hype behind her coming into the UFC and take away her getting chinned by Denise Gomez who does hit like a I'm going to have to go with uh I have to go with Yasmin regui here we move on up the card Manuel Torres versus ignasio bahamondes oh I'm gonna go Manuel Torres you know there's a few performances in ignasio bahamondes his career where he's had a little bit of a stinker against people that um not a stinker but he hasn't looked as good against a certain level of competition as I would need him to look in order to pick him against a Manuel Torres and man Torres on the other side is destroying everyone you know what I mean he destroyed Chris Duncan in the first round got cracked but cracked back you know what I mean and then got the reaked choke in that fight from like throwing the guy down incred incredibly strong this guy is he's kind of like he's kind of like and I would describe him as this he's kind of a lightweight dricker dupier of course it's not going to look the same because driers is a lot bigger than him so it is going to look a little bit technically different but the way he fights his movement the danger that's there at all times the strength that he has to pull off some of these throws that aren't exactly like the typical takedowns that you would go for I mean he threw Duncan over the top of him from like a clinch position and it was so weird looking but he's just that strong he's a physical freak and I reckon ignasio with some of the performances he had I'm going to go through them right now for you guys couple weird ones you know what I mean I'm looking at a win over kristos gagos he looked great gagos is an aging fighter I'm not sure how much I rate that win but he got it and he looked good fair play to him then I'm looking at a win over Trey Ogden technically beat Trey Ogden didn't really impress too much but won it across the distance of the fight okay ronu beat him across the distance of the fight and then got a submission in the third round took him to the third Roosevelt Roberts to the third round this is some of the stuff that I'm looking at I know this is a while ago now for him but I'm looking at a loss to L Klein where he got taken down three times and held down for quite a bit in that fight you know six minutes of control time here for Ludovic Klein and he had a good second round but Klein picked it up in the first and third and yeah I'm gonna have to go with uh I'm gonna have to go with Manuel Torres here I just think he's looked more Flawless against the same level of competition that ignasio bahamondes has looked somewhat mid against him in moments like John mcdes old Canadian hello red flag shouldn't have lost to him old Canadian tiny as well for the division incredibly short arms and he was landing on bahamondes wobbling him in moments and it was a while ago I get it but he was landing on him consistently with such a shorter reach and I'm worried that Manuel Torres who's a bigger dude more imposing more range more power more in his prime faster if he lands those shots I know bahamondes could have improved but I'm not going to bet on an improvement I'm going to bet on what we've seen and I've seen Manuel Torres handle things so far in the UFC a lot easier so I'll go with him to get this one done we move on up the card Irene Alana versus Norman jaman now this is a tricky one because I do go back and forth here um now I got listen I'm a big fan of Norman jamont guys as you may be aware but I kind of don't want to pick her to win I feel like her FWE stint was kind of like smarthing a little bit I don't know if you guys are aware of that term but uh it's kind of when you like fight a lower level of comp for a bit under the illusion you know I mean you're sort of like lower your level than you actually are just to get a few wins but she is the underdog so it is tempting but I think I'm going to go arene alner I think she's just a little bit better than Norma jimon and I know that um what's her name masy chasson is actually a pretty good women's fighter MGK herself but I'm going to have to go with aldana she looked a little bit better against Macy chasson I know Norma jamont had moments as well but she got held up against the cage a bit and aldana did catcho with that weird weird heel kick from on bottom position but it's a tricky one you know I look for aldana's career and I see a we know the Carol Rosa she's a capable good women's bantamweight fighter Nunes lost by decision you know didn't really do too much in that fight it is what it is it's Amanda Nunes beat Macy chasson beat yanuk kitaya decent win beat Katlin Vieira I think that's a pretty good win she was undefeated at the time as well not knocked her out I'm looking at knockout power here I'm seeing a bit of a difference there Norma jamont she's good um Al Al is GNA have a bit of a reach Advantage here but Norma jamont she also beat C Rosa but then I'm seeing one and0 Danielle wolf taken to a decision Chelsea Chandler they just beat durandy but durandy had been out for so long and that was a tricky one for her as well lost to shasam you know I'm seeing Alana with a bit more of a finishing potential Advantage especially at bandam way and Norma jamont is a FWE and that Bund is going to prevent her ability to cut down appropriately to Bantam weight in some ways so I actually could see her getting shined she got put away by uh Megan Anderson I could see her getting chinned here by aldana so if you want to maybe sprinkle some money on an aldana KO that would be maybe my recommendation if you're not if you're okay with losing a bit and you only want to bet a tiny bit on a chance at winning potentially a lot um I don't know what Alana by KO is going for but um I'm sure it'll be somewhat big because women's MMA betting by KO is not often a good good bet but I can see a chinning here by aldana she's got the power she's got the lead hook for it I can see her getting nor jamont who does make some mistakes at times we move on up the card Ronaldo Rodriguez versus ode Osborne I'm gonna go Ronaldo Rodriguez OD Osborne's just been beaten too many times for my Lykan um and Ronaldo Rodriguez is a consistent finisher and and does have a bit of a foll him for himself on Instagram as well not worthy enough for a main card of a sphere but he's had a couple viral Tik toks so that makes him on the main card of this monu Monumental occasion um but he's be some good oppon I think Dennis bondar is a sound flyweight he hasn't had the most success but I think he's a very technically sound flyweight um yeah he's had some good wins you know what I mean beat consistent prospects undefeated guy five and0 lost to Jerome Rivera on the regional scene I don't really like the look of that but he's got finishing potential and OD day Osborne you know he's been put away a few times now at Flyway you know got submitted in his last fight you know we know Ronaldo Rodriguez has a lot of finishes by submission as well I think he submitted his last opponent Dennis bond with a reed in the second round almv put him away in the second round this is oday Osborne Philo put him away in the First with a rear naked that's two rear nakeds in a row you know Ronaldo Rodriguez is coming off of a rear naked win um I don't mind the win over Charles Johnson but I thought it was a robbery I thought Charles Johnson clearly won the fight Tyson Nam put this guy away nam's an aging fighter aging um fighter you know what I mean so I'm gonna have to go with uh cap put him away in the first round we see cap go to splits with ph Felipe dos Santos you know what I mean I wish Norman jamont would go to splits with me mate I'll be telling you but either way I'm going to have to go with uh going to have to go over Ronaldo Rodriguez damn we're like getting to the main card already it really ain't anything on this huh no way there's five prelims I've missed a few fights wow there's 10 fights on this card moving on up the card Daniel uh Daniel zel Huber versus estan ribovich now this is a tricky one because zel Huber is there to be hit at times and riic is dangerous as a prospect gonna go Daniels El Huber he's good man I was watching back his last fight the way he literally I feel like to say this the right way um he fought in his last fight against Francisco PR who's good I think he's pretty good um and he tamed him in that fight like there was some danger where pra would swing and get close but he really shut him down as the taller opponent and we're looking at a similar style here in ribovich who's a little taller little faster little bit more Dynamic than pra is he's a little bit less of a chanes build for the division you know he's a little bit more Dynamic little bit faster I just don't think there's enough finishing consistency I'm going to have to go with Daniel el Hubert and one of the other reasons is this is a big deal for me ribovich has a 69 in reach that's flyweight reach that's women's reach that's tough for me here you know what I mean I'm not liking the look of that especially at 5 foot 10 so he's not far off the height of zel huba who's standing at 6' one I think this guy's literally the tallest Mexican of all time um 77 inches of reach guy's got an 8 inch reach advantage over estan ribovich here and they're both good at uh Fighters they both training at good gyms especially El huba training at extreme cotor um this guy's training an alpha team you know decent but I'm going to go I'm going to trust in extreme cotor it's going to be a game plan heavy fight he's trained by uh Eric nixi good at game plan heavy uh strategy going to trust in that going to trust that he's looking to keep distance not get too Scrappy pick his shots at range try and go tip fortat this ain't no Terrence mckin who's just going to go out there and whale and 5050 a gamble if he gets a KO or loses because he's mid I I reckon this is going to be a uh a zel Huber pick aart fest with that 8 inch reach Advantage at lightweight we're talking about here we're not talking about heavyweight where you got a twoe varer against like a Jon Jones or anything like that we talking about lightweight 8 inches of difference in reach it's going to be Amplified because they're smaller so the scale between the two of them is more similar you know what I'm saying so I'm going to have to go with Daniel el Huber here and uh he's had two good performances back to back so I'm going to trust him to get this one done we move on up the card to another fight which is Brian Ortega versus Diego Lopez I'm going to go Diego Lopez I'm going to trust in the favorite here Orga he can get it done now if this was a five rounder I actually would be like H how confident am I that Lopez is going to get a finish in this fight because it's a tricky one you know it really is a tricky one so if it was a five rounder I reckon first of all the odds would be a lot closer but second of all maybe I'd be more tempted to go of VGA but knowing that Lopez has three rounds and Lopez knowing that he has three rounds remember I know eay stepped up but so did Lopez for that fight this is a full training camp fight and Lopez had to make weight for this and then that and he he made weight like three times I feel like and then made weight up again for Dan eay to step in it was a real tricky one for Lopez to deal with like in terms of a fight week chaos this is going to be more controlled I like that he's staying active that tells me he had no injuries after the d The Dan eay fight or he's not taking this you know I mean you don't step back like he took a uh he's had moments where he's taken five months off you know between the sabatini fight and the Yousef fight and then he beat Yousef in April then he beat ego in June now he's fighting in September that tells me he's feeling good this is a good year for him he's healthy I like that I reckon he's going to get this one done over Orga I just think Orga is a little bit too slow of a starter so I think maybe lope and Lopez ain't the guy who's a slouch on the ground round like yayer is you know where if after the first round by the way that fight was at altitude as well and yayer was like gassing from beating up on orer in the first so I reckon Lopez is going to do better at dealing with a ground game if it eventually goes there his takedown defense is going to be a lot better as well I imagine and I think his striking is going to be more consistent across three rounds than Yaya Rodriguez who relies on more chance Lopez is Scrappy he's throwing punches that have a high success rate of Landing yay does some goofy stuff now and again and offbeat time and wild stuff maybe it works but um I'm going to have to go with Diego Lopez here do I see maybe a tricky third round at some point where Orga has moments and the crowd kind of gets behind him maybe I could also see a Diego Lopez finish um orga's taken a lot of damage in his career I know that he didn't take a finish loss to Yaya Rodriguez in his last fight however he did get chinned you know I mean's he has had one fight in two and a bit years so not liking it not liking it for Brian orer I think y Rodriguez fight he still took a lot of damage in that first round now he's coming back he got pulled out of the Diego Lopez first fight for medical issues now he's stepping in for this one I'm gonna go Diego Lopez I think he's more switched on as a fighter right now in his career and I think the winner of this one should be looking to call out vul that's what I want to see I don't want to see vul inactive step back in there against anilia tapua if he beats Holloway you know what I mean or we have to see vul Holloway 4 let's get some separation let's have vog fight a contender you know what I mean I reckon the winner of this is probably looking at that and uh I reckon that's going to be Diego Lopez so that'd be a smart call out from him if he does it just think he's a little crisper than Orga early on the feet and I think he's got far better grappling and conditioning for grappling than yay year and it's not an altitude so you know it's not Mexico City altitude is it so I'm going to go Diego Lopez we move on and if it was Lopez is used to it he's an altitude guy so you know he trains out of Mexico City he's from there so I'm gonna go with him we move on Alexa Gro versus Valentina shev shenko I'm going with Alexa Gro it's a near even fight um but I'll go Grasso shev shenko is just an aging fighter had a moment in the sun I feel like maybe too much time in the sun judging by that bottom lip either way she's had her moments you know she's 36 now Alexa grao even though I thought she arguably could have lost that last fight it's like shev shenko had a chance in that second fight to get the win but they were just hellbent on robbing her so they randomly gave Grasso a 108 round one of the weakest 108 rounds in UFC history um which only seemed to go to stars that they want to win which I'm not a I don't have a problem with by the way in women's MMA like I'd rather the bigger names be in the championship fights because otherwise we get Raquel Pennington you know what I mean so yeah I'm going to go with Alexa Grasso I also believe that shev shenko will be carrying a lot of negative energy into this compared to Grasso because she's going to be real bitter about that last one I can see it getting a bit heated in the press conference where she mentioned something about her getting robbed usually the fighter that comes in there with that attitude that they got robbed is a little bit emotional and if it's an emotional fight and not a completely technical sound fight I think it leads more into the chance of Grasso Landing the shots where she can drop Chev shenko where she can take advantage of a grappling situation and yeah I'm I'm going to go with Alexa grao I really am I think she can capitalize more I think she's the more improving she's the younger fighter she's coming into her prime I mean how old is Alexa Gro 31 to uh shf shenko 36 little bit of a reach Advantage I'm going to go Alexa Grasso here and I also think that you know there's just experience fighting a woman like Valentina shev shenko shev shenko is the top she was the top girl for a long time in the division you know so it's not like she was oh my God thank God I got that experience against Lauren Murphy maybe she'll get it against Grasso but I think experience against High competition is more favorable for a younger fighter no so I'm going to go with Alexa grao she was quite green when she first came into it you know what I mean Valentina shevchenko what's her record now she's 23 and four not to mention all of the kickboxing matches and mu Tha fights that she's had in her past and then we're looking at Alexa Grasso 16 and three pretty much only done MMA I'm going to go with her getting this one done so Alexa Grasso by decision or maybe a late rounds finish with a choke after dropping chef shenko at some point because she still dropped shev shenko in moments in that second fight as well um I'll go of Gro getting this one done we move on shauni versus morab deash I'm GNA go with uh sha Ali over morab I'm going with sha oi now morab does have staff infection I think that's pretty clear which is a problem because Mor's Main weapon is his gas tank and if he doesn't have that what does morab do he's not outclassing people on the feet to where he chins them you know he's not uh submitting people with his amazing Jiu-Jitsu he's shooting takedowns and failing them and failing to control anyone with them I mean sudo he did have a lot more control than usual but typically we see morab just spamming takedowns and they don't seem they don't seem to uh lead anywhere you know I mean he's not beating the hell out of people on the ground he's not finishing people with Wicked submissions you know what I mean he's not an Ola and he's not a vicious ground and he's not a tto Ortiz I guess because he you know he brought in the elbows from full guard didn't he made that sort of mainstream either way uh sha Mali I'm picking to win this fight another reason is morab with his takeown spam heavy style cejudo's flatfoot in comparison to om Ali all of them are at bandam weight other than maybe sandhagen but sandhagen moves for nothing you know what I mean a lot of the time sandhagen does St switch St switch faint faint and I'm like you ain't landed anything like do something you know umar's winning what are you doing you know what I mean um but morab stationary opponents are where he does well cejudo's got a plant and try and land on him he gets the takedowns on sudo eventually after cejudo wobbles him in the first with a left hook and gets him down in the First with a takedown and arguably wins the first round or does win the first round then Yan he's flat-footed in comparison you know he's a shelled up guy that's kind of what morab would like as an opponent you know I'm seeing what Mariah's did to him I think om Al's a better shot selector om Al's different on his feet footwork wise we saw aljo was able to spam takedowns against Peter yam we've seen aljo able to spam takedowns against other opponents but Ali didn't let him get there aljo couldn't aljo wouldn't shoot because there wasn't a good shot for him in times like he had moments where you know am Ali slipped and he got on him and he tried to take him down but failed m is a little stronger than he looks I think he's got a little bit of Leon Edwards takedown defense situation so hopefully morab doesn't play bow Muhammad here but um you know Edwards is really good at isolating wrists and getting two onone and that's how he shut down Usman I'm going to go sha Ali I think his footwork is better harder to find good shots on which gives him distance then catch you making bad shots which is something you don't want because his upwards knees to the face from standing is ridiculous you know I mean ridiculous timing on those Landed It On Maron Vera Landed It On Peter Yan these are educated Strikers um I think that's going to be an option for him I think the left hook is going to be an option for him I think morab is a hyper reactor to faints if you watch a lot of his fights when people faint at him he goes a little jittery and I think against om Ali he'll he'll learn to chain something on like a combination or a single shot after one of those faints and I can just see him catching morab early in this now morab could win I'm going to go sha Ali I'm going to go Sha Al by TKO in the first or second round putting morab away and I'm going to tell you this as well on top of the staff infection the cut over his eye that's definitely a factor that comes into this as well om Ali's going to open that up it's on the eyelid if that opens up any worse than it is the fight is getting called off let me tell you why you know they don't want morab winning a five round grapplefest of nothing skill-wise but cardio against Shao Mali you know that don't want that to end the sphere you know big night of fights maybe the rest of the card is fun few finishes here and there big main event to end the big one you know everything's going into this $16 million morab failing takedowns and just om Ali having to stuff 50 of them and not being able to get strikes off I'm going home Ali and they want him to win they want him to win so I'm telling you this right now if they see that cut near his eye it's getting called off and let me tell you this again if morab gets hurt like he did against maras the fight is off he ain't getting given a chance like that against om Ali I'm not trying to say the UFC is going to you know corrupt but watched Ali cheat 10 times against Yan ain't [ __ ] happened to him no point deduction needed they got him the win it was a close fight but I'm I don't like the cheats the the hooking of the cage uh the glove grabbing the eye poke they didn't take a point for anything that om Ali did in that fight I counted like 10 fouls that he committed just keeping it real I'm Ali I don't care if you invited me on your podcast you cheated in that fight a lot um so they let him get away with things they do let him get away with things like they let McGregor get away with a few things against tabib you know and herbine was just blind for a night weird is it so I reckon if morab gets hurt like he did against maras fight's getting called off he ain't getting a chance to recover from that second of all if he gets hurt like he did against shudo and wobbled which is likely against om Ali at some point here right if lands a follow-up shot that drops him I can see him just stepping in there as well and mor Rob's recovery is going to bring him back up to his feet but people are going to be like no I get why the ref jumped in though and other people are going to be like early stoppage and we're just going to forget about this don't be surprised do not be surprised if people are calling out an early stoppage if he gets dropped and hurt by om Ali in this big of an event where they need an OM Ali win because you know the stars that they got now Pereira ain't going to be around for much longer that they're going to look when Jones is gone all liars are on om Ali for the UFC I feel like makev I can see him retiring in a few fights Bow's 36 and no one cares about him panto is not going to bring any attention ever dup's got big matchups based on the contenders in his Division and they can do the South Africa event but I think they're going to be heavy focused on om Ali so again don't be surprised about an early stoppage and I'm looking at this here was Al's reach he's got a reach Advantage not crazy though Mor's actually got you know he's not short arms for 56 but 68 inch reach flyweight reach women's reach om Al's not 5'11 so I look at 5'11 I see a 72 in reach and I'm like that should be a bit more like 74 you know what I mean if I'm going to say this guy's got long arms but uh he's not 5'11 is he he's 5'9 at a push he's 5'9 a push because he was standing next to that NFL player can't remember his name um but the guy's like 510 or 5'9 and he was taller than om Ali very noticeably and they were in the same branded shoes and then piml stood next to om Ali once and piml might be pushing 5'11 himself and he was noticeably taller than om Ali so you know the the the reach to height ratio is a little more impressive than it looks on paper for om Ali because he's a lot shorter than He's listed at um and also one more thing about om Ali he's going to be improving I think morab is a complete package and there's not much to improve upon that he can I don't think omab is ever going to like faint and counter someone nastily on the feet but om Ali can play catch up on the ground game and the more time he buys for himself the better he's going to get 29 years of age you know I mean he ain't had much wear in Te got four years younger than morab Mor Rob's 33 I like this foro m I do and the guillotin he's got a nasty guillotin morab shoots with his head on the outside a lot guess who don't have a nasty Guillotine Peter yan yan don't really catch people coming in like that either he's not a fade away like Ali did to aljo type of guy Y type of guy to back you up land consistently on you and eventually one of his combinations are going to drop you I'm going to Al this is a this is a good style for him and I think his Tak down defense is kind of underrated as well like And subscribe thank you for watching tole pip I'll see you later and goodbye