2024 AFC Win Totals, Bets, Super Bowl Picks | Cust Corner Mini: Oasis Back Together

Intro jets are 15 to1 to be the last undefeated team Tim I just looked it up on DK and they could be that but I don't know you just you have them at like nine and0 yeah you currently have them at one two three four five six seven eight nine 10 you have them at 11 and0 already that's a good start when when you have the best of everything in every position you don't lose a lot of games enter the experience experience Pat experience bat experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy it's the main event AFC win totals plus a cuss Corner mini version towards the middle part of the show you can always jump around with your teams down in the description I want to remind you to sub to Mayo media Network smash the like to this episode and if you want 500 bucks or at least the attempt to get 25K Pick’em Contest 500 bucks leave a subscribe leave a rating and review on the pat Mayo experience audio podcast on Apple and Spotify to get yourself into that draw draw one of you to win 500 bucks but here's the big thing that I got going on I got Underdog fantasy to give me $225,000 for NFL season there's two ways that you can get your hands on this money we're having a season long props pool so there's going to be weekly winners then there's going to be the overall season winners all you need to do to enter is go down to the description right now there's a Google form you put in your email you put in your Underdog handle and boom you are entered into that contest now if you don't have an underdog account use code Mayo to go sign up right now you'll get yourself a deposit bonus of up to $1,000 plus we have every single day of the week from now up until the kickoff of football there's going to be special promos every single day so I'll have those in the newsletter where you'll find the secret link to this show during the season on Tuesday evenings down in the description so Mayo media substack you can sub to that for free right now but here are 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you can make 500 so if you're way behind you might need to load up and keep going with $1 entries or $20 entries whatever it is you want to do but the top price for that is going to be $5,000 to you into your Underdog account second price $3,000 third and fourth will both be 2,000 fifth and sixth a th000 7th eth and ninth and 10th will all be an extra $500 now if you play your entry and you win you get that money anyway but you also get your points for the season long pme total if that's confusing to you it shouldn't be but I'll have the whole right up in that Google form right now so you can go see the rules the only thing is there's not going to be any free Pi there's not going to be specials there's not going to be Scorchers you cannot use those picks as a part of that pool so if you put one on your entry and you have five plays only four of them are going to count towards the pool so keep that in mind when you're doing it all ties will just be as many people tie for whatever split with the money that's up there right now so that's how it's going to work I encourage everyone to go play it please share it around let's get as many people in this as possible so we can run it back for golf season and then next NFL season it may be hell we got like 3,000 people to play in this let's give out $50,000 what do you think about that Jeff that's a lot of money Pat it is to to you good people out there 25k guaranteed good luck to everybody um unfortunately I don't think I could would be able to play enough weekly because the government where I live um is is insane well when we go to Montreal at the end of September you'll have to have 180 entries boom you're good to go I'm actually I'm always thinking about my next trip to make to play contests and do entries so that's what you do code Mayo at Underdog right now get you that deposit bonus up to $1,000 use the Google form down in the description to go register your email and Underdog handle to get into that contest like Jeff said $25,000 is a ton of money so anyway that's the promo off the top of the show let's get to the good stuff what you're here for coming off his Victorious effort in the century one beer per minute over a 100 minutes it is Tim and cust UST That's Not My Name well it sounds like your voice is still a bit horse from that no no sorry I'm fighting with people in my menes uh thank you for that uh that for that kind introduction I I had a great weekend uh I I think I deserve more credit for knocking multiple 30-footers against you in our match play but uh you know I'll take Bravo Tim Bravo congrats oh my partner and I had the magic beans pitched in from the Fairway we're making long pots we everything that could come up us came up us uh and poor Pat was not being picked up by his partner who didn't know how nasal spray worked didn't know how n he not only didn't know how nasal spray worked ended up spraying himself in the eye with it Jeff I I paired myself up with the worst guy on our team to go into this match CU it was like a twom man scramble I was like oh I'll use like five shots from him during the round that'll be good enough he would do things like putt while I like was still at the cart getting my Putter and then I would ask him how it broke and he wasn't able to tell me and then he'd ask me questions like is this uphill or downhill it was just it was a horrifying experience never again Tim dropping daggers oh he was he he made three three to five putts from Beyond 25 feet for part to have holes and then his partner dunked it from 80 yards out and that was just the end of it we were we were screaming and jumping up and down in the Fairway and hugging each other and there was really no coming back from that it was like Keegan and Phil yeah exactly when you CIN 10.5 o-125 got the magic beans against you uh the tide is too strong you can't swim against it well that's where we're at you'll see us here every single probably be like Wednesday at midnight or Tuesday at midnight like that crossover between Tuesday or Wednesday but again you can get the advanced version of this show in the Mayo media newsletter free to join and I'll have tons of other info down here the coin is here to do this with us and we'll kick things off with the AFC North Cincinnati Bengals are favored to win this division at plus 140 their win total is 10 a half that's juice to the over jef of minus 125 Jamar Chase as of this recording has not signed his long-term extension although you think that would be coming with CD lamb having done it already we haven't seen Joe burrow since the beginning of last season where he entered the year with that calf or hamstring or whatever the hell it was and then he wasn't good anyway and he started to get good then he broke his wrist or whatever the hell happened to his wrist and now he's back and everyone is all in on the Bengals like this is a very difficult Division I do you think this is the best division in football Mo the best the most competitive um yeah certainly they do it again I am one of those people who I'm pretty high on the Bengals if burrow doesn't get hurt and I'm not expecting him to get hurt uh I would think that they will be there almost the very end in the AFC like most I don't see despite how competitive the division is um I don't like some of the other teams so I could see why the Bengals are the favorite I'd make them the favorite I'll pick them to win go over that win total like they're winning 11 12 games as far as I'm concerned that's where I want to lean to Tim but I just you have it in the back of your mind that like oh yeah they'll just randomly drop one to Pittsburgh they'll drop one to Cleveland in order to get to 11 wins you basically have to beat everyone outside of the division and run a bit of train inside your division too like even if you just give them a split with the Ravens because they're also at 10 and a half like they have to sweep one of those other two teams not saying that they can't do that but I mean as you've P pointed out for years like when there's a division game take all the points because these games just end up being close yeah it's too many wins it's uh there too many wins I will take the under um I I actually don't think this is the best division of football and I don't think the Bengals the best team in this division so everything leads me to say under I don't like the the uh the chase stuff I don't like burrow coming off of that particular injury and it's not the first time he's come off a significant injury in his career uh you really can't Bank on Joe Burrow's Health uh you you just simply can't and to take this over is I just think rolling the bones um I don't think it's a smart bet and I would uh advise people to take the under do you like I think they're gonna win between nine or 10 games uh may like a fringe wild card team I don't I don't like them a healthy Joe burrow and a last play schedule like yeah there's such an there's an advantage always I guess in such a competitive division to the team that for whatever reason be it injury or a clear underperformance walks into the next year with that last play schedule but that Advantage is gone now based on this number like you're not getting any advantage out of this number you're you're basically paying at the top of the market at 10 and a half for a team that went 9 and eight l last year so I take what you're saying in stride and I think you're right but that's true if this win total was n and a half or nine not 10 and a half uh it's too high well I I'm gonna go with Jeff and the coin on this one and go over it's just a bet on Burrow's Health like you said they were nine and eight last year and Jake Browning was doing most of the quarterbacking for them you put Joe burrow into that and you know they probably get to 10 11 wins anyway and he was injured to but he was injured to begin the season anyway and wasn't at 100% if he is 100% which by all accounts he is then he should be fine here and burrow is of the tier of quarterback where what I'm about to say probably doesn't matter and we'll get to it when we talk about the South but a lot of love out there for Brian Callahan um you know it's not like Joe burrow needed a QB Whisperer to be good but this guy just looked like he could scheme Guys open and it'll be interesting to see I'm excited to talk about the Titans but um it'll be interesting to see what happens there with the brand new with the brand new quarterback but all chips are in they called higgins's Bluff they weren't Mike Brown he can fall in line you know like in paying Joe burrow he had to fall in line with where this league is but he's not gonna set a precedent on the timeline for which he will pay top of market so it was good that Jamar Chase recognized he's just he's dealing with the wrong old man this old like that guy will not set the market he will fall in line with the market when it's Chase's turn next year T Higgins I will say for the for the Bengals the hardest part of their schedule is the end of their schedule so like if there there aren't any health concerns there just there's so many tough games late I don't know I just I feel like too many people are vibing with Cincinnati and I'm not so sure the evidence suggests that they should be well T Higgins Tim actually made JJ and I made a $375 season long Underdog entry on five picks for the overs or unders on season long prop and T Higgins was one of those five you can tail that link and get the full breakdown in yesterday's show but down in the description right now you can just click it tail it hell you can fade it if you really want to and that code Mayo was baked into that as well so you'll get your thousand opponents if you haven't actually gone in yet if you have an account you know sign up for the league and then go tail this T Higgins HED him than 875 yards doesn't that seem low H I guess it does seem low not crazy low like if you asked me what I was going to get I would have S around 900 950 yards so yeah it's low but I don't think it's that's too far off I mean he got hurt last year and still had 650 the two years before that he was over a thousand both those years then he was over 900 in 2020 as well like as long as he plays his games he gets over that number and there's no Tyler boy around and they have yes mes as their third receiver now the only hole I could poke in it because it's hard to actually find one would be a guy with the current BAL 10.5 o-120 receiver Market he will not play slightly banged up we've just seen a lot of players whether it be quarterbacks or guys at these positions that pay pay so so much it's like nah if I Ain like a 100 I ain't going because that market says I'm worth 33 a year or something let's move to the Ravens who I assume are going to be Tim's pick to win the AFC North their win total is also 10 and a half they are plus 145 to win the division their overs Juiced up to minus 120 can you take both these teams to go over Tim like if you like both these teams and don't love and don't love the other teams there's room in this division for two teams with over with 11 or more wins absolutely there is uh the AFC is stacked so you have to be very certain that those are the two teams that in the division you want to take over 11 wins uh you could certainly do it but look if Lamar's healthy he's the best QB in the division he's the second best QB in football he's the defending MVP if he's healthy I know they don't have receivers they really have great receivers last year I know that they've lost a fantastic defensive coordinator but like Lamar fixes all those problems if he's healthy Baltimore is going to win 11 12 13 games uh just try and stop them I mean the playoffs you can stop them they're stopped all the time but in the regular season as long as Lamar doesn't get hurt there's no stopping Baltimore and they're going to win the division so you have them at the over where are you leaning on this Jeff because I I want to I'm kind of agree with Tim on this I think derck Henry is a nice fit into this offense as someone who can just bang at home and even if he has a bit of tread on the tires if he's 80% of what he used to be he's still going to be better than whatever they had who are now the running backs for your favorite team heads means it's an over for the coin as well I'm going to go over on the Ravens as well I do the biggest thing I actually worry about is losing Mike McDonald because their defense was a lot better than it was expected to be a year ago and losing a coordinator could throw that back and all of a sudden they a slightly below average defense and I think that would really impact what they want to do offensively the concern with Baltimore I'll say it off the top I'll be an under I've seen some 11s uh show up that I probably be um more inclined but for the purposes of this 10 and a half under I I think there are way more unknowns in Baltimore this year than people are giving credit for or taking notice three offensive linemen from last year gone it's like a it's some big pieces on that o line totally need to be replaced how good of a job did they do it I feel like in the past maybe even last year I picked every team in this division to go over so could you do it like yeah you could do it you'll go worst case two and two like the division won't hurt you in your season you add up your whole season's work on these two preview shows but I'm going to pick under this year on the 10 and a half close playoff team but like 10 10 wins so under well if you went over on all of the teams in the AFC North last year you went three out of four the Ravens had 13 wins the Browns had 11 the Steelers had 10 hell the Bengals still had nine they still finished above 500 so was still pretty close on that front despite losing their MVP caliber quarterback for what 80% of the season so yeah just targeting this Division and the overs is usually G to be pretty good and everyone only the Steelers were really good inside the division last year which is kind of crazy the Bengals were one and5 against the division the Steelers were five- one that's why they made the playoffs did they make the playoffs yes they played buffalo in the first round that's right that was a the game that got postponed because there was a little bit of snow and God forbid the bills after have to play in cold weather so despite how like strong the conference can feel at times or was supposed to feel ever since they've added that third wild card team it's nothing but like shitty teams making the playoffs and even shittier teams being in the hunt really late which is a fan it's not a bad thing but I don't know if you're decent like you're in this thing the whole way through and evidence is shown by how bad the teams that have sort of into the back spots in both conferences even the good conference the perceived better conference have been okay Pittsburgh suck last year yeah but Green CLE 8.5 o-135 Bay blew out Dallas Green Bay I mean that's it's I mean Green Bay Jeff is right by and large by and large the seven seed is is a trash team and no we've just seen really bad teams being able to like live live two week 17 competing for that spot since Inception okay let's get to the next team then we're going to Cleveland with the return of Deon Watson their win total is eight and a half they are 6 to1 to win the division their over is also Juiced up to minus 135 right now uh you you kind of hit it bang on with Watson last year and he looked super washed do you think that was Jeff lingering from what had happened before you know where he had taken the time off he was you know Shadow Bang for a while from the NFL or do you think a lot of it has to do with the shoulder injury that he sustained that knocked him out for the rest of the year like which guy is he really is he the guy that we saw last year before the injury or is that just something he had all year and he is going to be better this time around because if he's not they're GNA be I don't want to say bad because they were fine with him but they just relied on their defense so much their defense was so much better at home than it was on the road it just feels like if they get behind in a game with him at quarterback they can't come back he just doesn't look the same not even close it seems like it'll never happen he's just a completely different player at this point um the defense is so good and they could survive on it again and they made the playoffs with four quarterbacks last year and I would argue Pat at the time that we are recording this the like perception is lower on the Browns than it's been in a long time you like I don't think they've had the the best training camp or injury situation uh I don't know part of me feels like buying low on the Browns um seemed like a crazy thought to think they could win the division but I don't think they're as bad their chances are as low as the number at the moment either well I I you say that about the perception surrounding them maybe it's because the number is eight and a half but they are the most Juiced up team to the over in this division I guess that that is fair I mean I'm not expecting much from Watson so I don't really feel comfortable investing in them but you got to love the coach and you got to love the defense so I'll say over two-time Coach of the Year Tim yeah that's true um look he's played 12 games in three years and hasn't looked good who has ever missed that much time and looked bad towards the end and has ever come back and been good again um I don't think it's ever been done if it has I can't think of anyone off the top of my head the odds of Watson being good are are are really really really Slim uh if history teaches us anything um I mean chub is gonna be gone for four games and goodness knows what you're going to get out of the running game when he comes back um yeah the defense played fantastically last year but defense is the hardest thing to carry over like there's there are so few green shoots here there's so few things to be hopeful for for the Browns you know you've got by far the the the the the worst quarterbacking situation and and Pittsburgh has Russell Wilson and Justin fields for heaven's sakes and You by have by far the worst quarterback situation you're into him for another $200 million I just don't see much to be hopeful for I'm under I'm very much under and part the Browns being so bad is part of the reason I don't think you can say that this is this is the best division in the NFL because the Browns are just such a weak link here see they the prototypical Northern team like awesome o line awesome dline really good coaching I there's just so many teams I feel like they can take advantage of in the league that I'm still willing to to trust them see that that's where I'm at with him like quarterback play is too terrible can't get away from it can't get around it the quarterback play was bad last they won with four guys last year they won with it Jo Flaco's numbers as you know were excellent when he came in and played quarterback so good that he stole it from yeah I don't need to reash this but anyway Joe Flo's numbers were better than from Baker stole it from Baker that's what we stole yeah sure okay yeah uh Joe Flo's numbers were were were better than Deshawn was putting up and could put up last year like you don't have that now now you have to go back to Deshawn who's just finished see I I sorry nothing to hope for here I I think that we have a bit of a rosecolor glass of situation on how good flacko was a year ago he was good for that offense he allowed them to score points and he went four- one that was fantastic but he crushed the Jets in prime time it changed like narrative but like he threw 13 touchdowns to eight picks it's not like he was just playing absolutely lights out like he was an MVP candidate he was just a huge upgrade from the other two jamokes that they ran out there after deshun Watson that I I don't know I feel like also bad sure but he wasn't as bad as those guys could Desa like listen we watched pton Manning win the Super Bowl when he was God awful that the way that Jeff kind of laid this out with the o line with theine with this they have playmakers all around the field especially in the passing game can he facilitate enough for them to average 23 points a game would that be enough with this defense and you have to hope the defense is still as good I think there's enough teams there's enough opponents in this league that you know don't want to play them PIT 8.5 o+120 despite not having like a game break in QB I think you see the Browns on the schedule like [ __ ] this won't be fun the coin is going over I'm going to go a slight under on the Browns this year as well I think they go eight- nine seven and 10 if they went over it wouldn't surprise me be like a hard staya away from a real bet but we're picking overs or unders here so I'll go under eight and a half Steelers are up next they are the one team in the division who is juic to the under Tim it's 8 and A2 for them as well obviously they went over that number made the playoffs at 10 and seven a year ago I I just think this quarterback like you want to talk about like an actually bad quarterback situation this is it and they don't have the game breakers on the offensive side of the ball to help these guys out like if Fields plays yeah play him in fantasy he's going to throw like three picks a game and like rush for 200 yards he'll be awesome I don't know how conducive that is to actually winning in the NFL and I think that a lot of Russell Wilson at least last year when he looked semi-competent was a lot to do with the offense that Shawn Payton had constructed around where you have two two jobs here you can dump it off to the running back or just take a shot down the field and if you turn it over just call it a punt there's no mid-range throws this is what we're doing I don't know if Arthur Smith like he's going to want to run the ball he's goingon to want to play jumbo sets maybe he can get away with that I just don't think that I mean he couldn't get away with it in Atlanta in the shittiest division in football I don't know how he's going to get away with it in this Division I love the under it's finally time for Mike Tomlin not to have a winning season and Russell Wilson probably historically will wear like the blame for being responsible for that um yeah I don't know there's a lot of like tape nerds who say when they watched Russell on the Broncos last year like a lot of the things that Bo Knicks is doing at least in the preseason you know being able to see that first read hit that short pass make the play Russell was afraid to do uh I don't think it's going to get better I'm going to bet the under eight and a half I'm going to bet it I'm I will put real money finally this this stick ends in Pittsburgh the coin is on the over for every team in this division Tim are you on the over for the Steelers no eight eight and one I like the under that wouldn't shock me that refuse I refused to predict an under 500 season for them but I also want to go under so that's what I'm doing here um for all that you've said um I think field should start I don't is going to start um but tomlins are in the right to make that decision so I have a whole lot to say I I'm not excited about this but I'm very rarely excited about the Steelers I don't particularly care for the Steelers um yeah to me they're just a big bowl of blandness they started they start you know with four straight games against the Falcons and the Broncos and the Chargers and Colts all coin flick games that could go in any direction like I I know tomlin's a great motivator they could win a bunch of games early but I'm going to still I'm still going to play that under uh who knows I I we have them on a Sunday night and I really really really really don't like playing Pittsburgh in prime time because they end up beating us frequently and uh I I really I really want that game the o line sucks okay they have incredible linebackers maybe like the best linebacking core in the league secondaries good but you mentioned field should start yeah if you're like cheering if you're betting like I don't know if this is the right way to look at it but when your favorite team is playing Pittsburgh you hope Russell Wilson's starting fields at least can like do something like you have to be worried yes he can throw pick sixes but he can also break containment and really hurt you I would so much rather get to play against Russell Wilson than uh yeah it's Seattle week one no it's it's Atlanta week one oh Atlanta week oh Denver's playing Seattle so Denver's playing Seattle again in week one didn't they play like two years ago week one on Monday night yeah it's one of those weird 17th game things I think yeah they played right after the trade when they traded russle they did that's when Gino said that they people people wrote him off but he didn't write back here's a question for you Jeff cuz you got to see this guy firsthand for a lot of years and then he went on to become the alltime passing leader of the NFL which he no longer is oh here we go yeah without Shawn pyton how do we remember Drew Brees I'm I'm not sure I mean that's a fair question are we supposed to lift up Shawn pton here I don't know like what what I'm saying is like he got elevated I mean he ended up winning Super Bowl uh he's going to go into the Hall of Fame like would he be a Hall of Famer if he didn't go to New Orleans and had Shawn pyton I would say who knows what would I would say no one wanted him so probably not Tim what do you make like you think would have been a Hall of Famer pretty much anywhere he went same guy that they they kicked to the curb for Philip Rivers I get it Philip Rivers is also an excellent quarterback not like you were passing hold on that was a little different I don't want do revisionist here but that was in the time where you had to pay the quarterback so much money to take to to walk in the door and they had already paid Rivers like $28 million uh like in an upfront signing bonus that they couldn't recoup in a trade and Drew Brees just tore his shoulder so you know it was like now we have this super cheap quarterback because all we did was pay him a signing bonus like you had to do back then for those top picks um it's a lot like yes like Rivers probably or Breeze probably would have been out the door regardless but I don't think he was circumstantially I don't know how anyone with a straight face could say that they were keeping Drew Brees that that's just such a lie like on any level to live in that moment at that time like even Nick Sabin told Drew Brees to [ __ ] off and he wanted Co pepper wasn't a great choice like no like that's the more embarrassing one than the Chargers being like well we drafted this kid fourth overall we've already paid him all that money you just tore your laum I guess this decision is now a lot easier for us than the Dolphins made yeah whatever we both made the wrong decision I guess I'll have the cheat sheet in the newsletter sometime on third on Wednesday evening after this show ends up getting released so if people are looking for the wind to actually maybe maybe I'll just release it tonight on Tuesday evening and then it'll be ready for you you can get that down in the description or just sub to the free newsletter you can find all of our picks for both the AFC and the NFC if you miss the NFC show go check that one out time for division picks I'll take the Ravens oh yeah same here Bengals Joe Burrow's healthy entering the season Jeff only picks cats is that true when we do the the win the win draft show with Robin cam we'll see if he exclusive see if he has a theme to his picks this year AFC East New York jumbo jets are NYJ 10.5 o+115 the favorites of the N or AFC East they are plus 165 to win this Division 10 and a half is their win total Jeff but the over is plus 115 I don't want to put air in Tim's Tires I don't know that me being on your side is even a good thing I love the Jets I love this roster I love that receiving core Garrett Wilson's about to take over Mike Williams to me seems like the perfect Aaron Rodgers receiver because Aaron Rogers just loves to throw like a a prayer and Mike's actually great at catching prayers when he's healthy I love the defense I don't know about the coach but I think the coach plays quarterback and I don't hate him so I'm in I'm in over Tim's gonna have fun Tim is gonna have fun they're a way better team than last year so if you were one of those people that loved the Jets last year and got really excited about the Jets last year if I know one of those people I would tell that person you should be more excited this year that's what I would say to that person because this roster is better than that roster the reigning hypothetical Superbowl champions Tim have the longest active playoff drought in all North American Sports I am going I am going to take the under because I work under the premise along with the coin who is also going under that this team team is simply cursed and something horrible will happen to them well sure but that can happen in January it hasn't and probably will and it probably will happen in January is the way I look at it uh their on their misfortunes in the playoffs coupled with Aaron Rogers historic misfortunes in the playoffs do seem like a recipe for something disastrous then but not in the regular season when you have the best of everything at every position you probably should go over your number so I'm going to say they're going to do that have you up have you updated their their wins since the last time we I don't know I don't know if I've done that or not I there's a lot of wins there there's a lot of wins put it that way they're not I I I'm straining to think a game where I might pick a loss I don't don't know where I would be sure it's somewhere but I I can't imagine it well let's let's try to find you pick you'd force it like you would just force it for the sake of math so no no I'm I'm sure there's losses there I'm not thinking of week one at the ners win or loss well spread's already come down three points to to minus three it's going to be a Jets win okay at the Titans a freebie two and0 home against the P home opener against the Patriots on a Thursday night that's a w all right home against the Broncos that's a w home against Sam darnold and the Vikings that's W in London you don't think Sammy scrambles is going to get his revenge on his old team not in London at home against the bills on a Monday night that's a win at the Steelers that game you just talked about on a Sunday night that's a win at the Patriots that's a win at home at home against the Texans on a Thursday night as you notice we only play Prime Time games because when you the League's Marquee franchise you only play solo games uh I think you've mentioned like two two o'cl games they've all been prime time otherwise uh that's another win so we get to Halloween we haven't got a loss all right so at the Cardinals that's a win coming off the mini bu it's funny the the schedule really does break great for them they seem to play all their difficult games at home yeah like the Bills game in London is like the the one hard game they don't play at met the Vikings game is London oh is it so the bills is actually just in nework bills is at home yeah it's in New York all right or in New Jersey H at home against the Colts and that's a Sunday night football game if memory serves that's a win then then you got the SE the Seahawks coming across the country for an early Sunday game they go to the Seahawks no oh no no that's right you're right you're right it's see this is one how is that the one see see now you're a big too big for your britches here so they're going to win all these games but Seahawks coming across the country for an early game in Jersey that's the game they're going to lose yeah Jets Jets 15 to1 to be the last undefeated team Tim I just looked it up on DK and they could be that but I don't know you just you have them at like nine and0 yeah you currently have them at one two three four five six seven8 nine 10 you have them at 11 and0 already that's a good start when when you have the best of everything in every position you don't lose a lot of games and then when I mentioned last undefeated team you're like they could be that after you just have them going but but they and the they and the other team that I really love this season in the AFC don't play each other so Miami they don't play each other so so Seahawks I'm give that game to Seattle Seattle at the Dolphins that's a win at the Jags that's a win at home against the Rams there's too much travel that's a Rams win that's at home going you just said on the NFC show that you under on the Rams they're not any good yeah but look that that you go from home to down to Miami to back home oh down taking the Am track down the [ __ ] East Coast yeah a ton of [ __ ] travel there a ton of travel uh the Rams are going to fly farther to Newark than the Jets will have traveled the previous they're on the back end of a bunch of they're on the back end of a bunch of travel traveling two to Miami yeah they play two games in Florida they'll probably stay in Florida I don't think they will yeah cuz it's not so far that you have to it's an hour and a half flight I mean I don't know why you're yelling at me you asking for me to give my opinion you're not you're not giving tell my op you're not giving a real opinion here I am giving a real opinion I think the Rams that's two NFC losses oh that vaunted West yeah at the Buffalo Bills H I guess I'll have to give buff I can't go six and0 in division so I guess I got to give one I I'll give that to Buffalo in Buffalo your first AFC loss and only because the last one is against the Dolphins who yeah so and the thing is with that Bills game and the Dolphins game they're not gonna be playing anybody who the Bills or the Dolphins the Jets oh I see we'll have this thing wrapped up by I don't know hopefully yeah but you got to play for that one seed because you said you have competition at 11 and0 we we do but I I think at this point we get it done we we finished with two losses so that's that's it's a 15-2 schedule right there yeah that's actually 14 and3 because you had them losing to the Rams bills and Seahawks oh correct the bills too yeah so 14 and three I don't think that's I mean that's like the best team in the league is going to have that kind of a record and you think the Jets are GNA be the best team in the league well they're the best team in the AFC East and there's only one other team in the AFC I'm scared of and they AR on my schedule the Ravens NOP but I'm I'm scared of them too the Char they're not that scary no is it the Chargers it is not the Chargers oh I kind of like what the Chargers are cooking over there with you know Justin only throwing the ball 18 times a game them doing a lot of running and a lot of sort of zagging when the whole NFL is doing something different I think Chargers could be somewhat interesting but no we'll get into it 14 and three I think we're going to be the one seed and uh probably lose in the first playoff game to somebody stupid congrats Tim yeah congrats on your congrats on your hypothetical one SE before the season starts yeah no this is a big defense of your title last year you're going to the one seed and you know the chips will fall yeah I hope my whole season isn't ruined six minutes in well you got that Monday night game again and I have to be the last person to open up his Christmas presents again I don't like I don't like it but it's working out well because like half of the good players in San Francisco just can't be bothered to show up for that game it seems so that's a good time to catch the 49ers I told you before that line dripped how much I like the Jets that week I just never bet it so I didn't bet it though so now I'm out good luck Brock pie good luck you're gonna need it a subpar quarterback against some of the best pass rushers and and and secondary probably the best he's ever seen in his career good luck what if the Jets played against Aaron Donald some of not the best but I'm talking about in terms of an entire front front eight good luck what if the Jets defense isn't as good as last year because you you made you made the point about Cleveland earlier that you know this stuff doesn't translate year-over year but it doesn't need to be it doesn't need to be when you have the absolute worst possible offense and the best defense you can afford to slip to the seventh best defense because you're going to have like the eighth best or 10th best or 14th best offense so that's fine you can absolutely afford to not be as good on D when you're going to move so much ahead on offense what if Aaron Rogers is washed it still will be better than what we got from the quarterback position last year and that team won seven games sure but but maybe they won't have maybe they won't have the best defense again what if they have the 10th best defense and they have a quarterback if he's wased they still should win eight or nine games that's under then like worst case scenario worst case scenario is eight or nine wins okay I'm gonna Mark that down I I do think so that's just about worst case scenario like I don't want to get too confident and I won't get too confident and I suspect something will go very very wrong uh but I think it'll happen in the playoffs I'm ready for my heart to be broken there for a change have you read that Ro that new Rogers book no I don't want to I don't need to all I need is him to show up on Sunday night or Monday night or Thursday night or whichever solo Prime Time game we have and play well that's all I need it's all I care about if he's not good how quickly are you going to turn on him I let me put it this way I have CAU a lot of slack for a long time because I I have something that I need here and like so just don't let me down you've already seen in the preseason Jets fans crying at him begging for a Super Bowl I feel the same way like we we have we just please don't let us down again you didn't it wasn't your fault the last time you got hurt please don't let us down we need this very badly I love Aaron like Aaron Rogers in terms of like watching a guy play quarterback is the top like one two three we've ever watched at least people you know our age I would hate for his career to not end properly but if it doesn't I will enjoy after Tim like just handed his soul over to him Tim completely just pulling the rug out and just every just throwing all his shrapnel like just face turning on him that will be a great few weeks on the Pod yeah but if he's truly washed it'll be a great few weeks or if he gets hurt and Tim turns on him then we have to hear about how great Tyrod is for eight weeks tyron's fine he's not great but Tyrod is so much better than any quarterback they've had of over the last several years that it would still be an upgrade hey Mike White is a Hall of Famer who's available I'd love to have Mike White back Jeff Aaron roders is plus 140 to win comeback player of the year which I find fishy since I was told he came back last year yeah I think he should be ineligible he came back last year and so she should and he should have won it last year I mean a lot of quarterbacks got hurt I don't have a I don't have a case like I got nothing there and you know I was thinking about Tim could be in trouble because I am not like I'm not going to space this year I'm not putting on my space suit and walking on the moon so I don't know what he's gonna come after me for like I thought I was in big trouble but you know as everything is sort of calmed down I think he's going to be in trouble because if I don't go to space he's got nothing and I'm not going to space you got seven we got 17 weeks on this show for you to demonstrate very poor Behavior which will be you know I just have to wait I just have to be patient I'm sorry I got nothing I'm gonna be calm like I'll be fine I'll be fine I'm actually I I'm I'm actually gonna run on Joy I'm going to run on Joy and a lot of people are do a lot of people are doing that these days a lot of people are doing that these days You're goingon to be in trouble when I'm running on Joy and you don't know where to throw your arrows so do you want my mic to be muted when you're speaking or should they always be unmuted when we're talking Jeff how does Joy work in that context I don't know but you're you're in trouble Joy's Coming For You Tim okay I have a question about the comeback Player of the Year Market Sam darnold's 12 to one if the Vikings make the playoffs and he's their starter he wins doesn't he like this was my if Joe burrow plays great then he would win claim to changed the rule oh oh what's the rule because I am seeing also where is it like Justin Herbert is 60 to1 to win comeback player of the year I don't quite understand that Gardner minu is 80 to one to win comeback player he played all last year played pretty well what's he coming back what's he coming back from well but it does seem like after last year uh and it took I guess the writers not giving it to Hamlin for the league to have some at least try to the AP to enforce some sort of rule that you do have to like come back from something and just sucking or being a backup or not being good anymore is apparently not a good enough reason but I agree with you Pat like if the Vikings are fine and good and make the playoffs I think the voters are just going to revert to their old habits as it pertains to the award yeah I I think without any sort of special circumstance this year that's going to carry a narrative like if Barrow comes back and he's fine and the Bengals win 11 games or the Vikings who are you know were they five and a half six and a half they make the playoffs you but it's not like darnold's coming back from anything either he was just the backup on San Francisco yeah I mean Kirk Cousins is coming back from an injury he would have the same case to be made like he's five to one yeah Anthony Richardson's the same but all those teams are expected to be pretty good the Vikings aren't so you get that like double whammy on that that's why I liked Baker last year because I liked the Bucks I was like if they win the division it's probably going to be because Baker and he's has huge odds he's the one realistic guy that could and he wasn't he wasn't coming back from anything he's coming back from being bad from bouncing around yeah um Sam darnold is on that Underdog pickham slip by the way that you can tail down in the description right now like I said it's uh 375 bucks pays 10 th 7500 bucks he has to go over 3,400 receiving yards if he just keeps the job he's going way over that Joe burrow could win MVP and they would still like give comeback player of the year to someone else it's a weird award yeah chub is like if chub comes back and he's awesome in week five he probably wins he has a good chance to do it too yeah it's notot sure too early like like Kyler Murray's on this he already came back like Justin Herbert had a broken finger that cost him December like like you said Pat that's that's a ridiculous qualification it's better than muu which I just don't or Sam how who got benched and is now a backup just strange stuff let's move to Buffalo Buffalo is 9 and a half this year they're minus 175 to make the BUF 9.5 o-145 playoffs Plus 95 to win this division they are minus 145 to the over and that is where I am going with Buffalo as great as you guys want to claim that the Jets are this is still Buffalo's division until they lose it and we've just seen so like just think about the Patriots strangle hold on this division even years where like they weren't amazing and they just continued to churn out division championship after division championship and the bills don't clearly have the playoff success that the Patriots had in fact they have very little playoff success but the regular season really hasn't been a problem all they really lost at least in my mind that I can figure out is they don't have Steph Diggs anymore who Jeff wasn't really doing anything for them anyway yeah I mean if you had digs and fantasy last year just go look up at last year's box scores I don't like anything that happened there seemed pretty replaceable I am quite high on the Jets to be as good as they should have been last year I'm also very high on the bills to be as good as they have historically been because Josh Allen is just that good and I don't I don't know I I trust their um like passing game through the tight end and sneaky fast guy offense like I trust it with Josh Allen I like it and then you always have the bailout Tim of oh it's the I mean you watch I mean although the Jets did beat them in week one last year but we W we've watched enough Jets and bills games and the bills overall with Paul being around on Sundays that oh it's third and 17 oh Josh Allen just ran for it don't worry about it yeah Josh Allen I mean this Bills team reminds me a lot of Baltimore it's a little worse in every way but it really just is is the quarterback good enough to will this team to the playoffs I I kind of with you guys with the the slide over I like it um I think the bills and Allen are good enough uh smart enough well just you know they get to play the Patriots and the Dolphins too that's big people like them so I I kind of like Buffalo spot here I like them to to win those games I'm very concerned when Allen rolls out there's nobody you've ever heard of who's going to catch the ball but they'll figure it out he'll make them Stars he'll make a new star I think I think you're right I think he will uh just because you never heard of them doesn't mean that you won't have by the end of the year people like Shakir he contributed Coleman seems like he might be all right he's a hilarious like social media follow if nothing else may they got nobody but he can perhaps spin stra into gold I think he's that good he's good enough to do that so Buffalo and it's only nine and a half as well yeah that's right you only need 10 wins and I think that I think the 10 wins are there I get a strong Buffalo radio signal uh in my car here and they're actually very down on Tyler bass who apparently had a had a horrible camp and got like a a a significant speaking to through the media by the coach this guy better bucket up but I like they signed the punter who the woman lied about uh with an incident who had got kicked out of the league before even played so I like that kid San Diego State I'm a loyal Aztec and you're not big on no class or all class Tyler bass I that's like just listening to these radio guys do a radio segment on big concerns if people are down on the bills on Buffalo radio and the thing that they're down about the most is the [ __ ] kicker I'd say that's a pretty good place to be in yeah no I don't think it was a I was surprised that that made the list but I do believe that they will make stars uh at the receiver position and I don't know they have a great dline strong secondary I like the bills I think people are down on them I don't know perception is off I think that'll be that'll be fixed quickly like the Jets they're poorly coached uh I don't I don't think they're poorly coached but they could be better Coach he's a good coach but he could you know the bills fired him the bills fired him this season there wouldn't be a lineup of people scrambling to hire him for next year you know what I don't know like we've seen so many retreads of like [ __ ] Dan Quinn's a coach again Dan Quinn actually had to play had be a very good defensive coordinator for several years in order to get a job again he went to a Super Bowl I think that people forget that Dallas's D last year was not good especially in the second second half no the second half of the Season it was not good I don't want to be I'm not like the biggest mcdermit guy but I don't believe the like when seven coaches get fired in an off season that it will be held that hard against you that you kept losing to Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs in my opinion they the bills feel Tim like drafting Marvin Harrison in fantasy those final five years that people are just over it people picked the bills to win the Super Bowl each of the past like three years they're the team that's going to knock off the PID the Chiefs and they're gonna finally get over the hump and just they didn't so now people are over it yeah bills people are on like Houston now or something yeah just bills fatig yeah the window closed that doesn't mean that the new window can't open up this is a very different team than the team that lost the Chiefs in the title game four or five years ago sure other than Josh Allen but the main element is still there that's the critical El one of the yeah that I mean there was a lot more going on than well they don't have Gabe Davis to catch four touchdowns anymore he's still there he's still playing great yeah yeah Paul you're the resident bills guy how do you feel about cus going over on the bills this year intentional sabotage is how I'm kind of feeling about if the bills lose couple games to start the season I'm fully expecting C to like come in dunk on me and and say absurd things that's what that's what happens on this he's probably a little bit worried but like I think you guys are actually overring the bills defense this year Bill defense is fine it's well aage I mean they've lost a lot in the secondary um well doing anything anyway what's thater had to leave Matt Milano got hurt he's out for the season um obviously he's an inside linebacker I don't know man I think 10 11 wins is the ceiling for us this year I think they're going to make the playoffs but I don't know uh my my expectations this year are a little bit lower I think it's like a semi- rebuild yeah you just don't want to they had horrible injury luck last year I get I get I get hurt so often by them that like yes the the expectations are tempered this year expect the worst hope for the best yeah the expectations are down like you could see it in the numbers like they're they've taken a tick down the ladder in people like you know they were the team to knock off the Chiefs now people probably put three or four teams ahead of them I don't know that they're that much worse than anyone else Tim would you put the Miami Dolphins ahead of the Buffalo Bills because their win total is also N9 a half juice to the over at minus 135 to or plus two5 to win this division so it's a three- team Race in the NFC East I know you love the Dolphins histor do you like them this MIA 9.5 o-135 year trash just trash no under not a very good team besides they basically had everything went as well as it could have gone for them last year basically and they barely got they got to the six seed and they scored seven points in the playoffs by winning I think either 10 or 11 games you're asking me are they going to do the same thing no people figured out the offense by the second half of the year they weren't impressive uh all those off those big offensive outbursts came early like you talked about how about the Dallas game well they W the Dallas game because of like a fumble on the goal line and all kinds of crazy stuff he's not a very good team um I I don't I think losing fangio on the defensive side is going to make a big difference to how this defense plays too um this is a very overrated huge question mark at quarterback and an aging wide receiver who uh you know has been a star but it's another year old I hate that snowman so much I don't even know where to start uh no like this this Dolphins team is like a blah seven and 10 type of team that garion hates to cheer for that's what they are they're not the worst but they were're close to good enough to compete they're starting with a bunch of guys on injured reserve fortunately no one like absolutely critical I guess Bradley chub is critical to their defense but Isa a win on the offensive line Odell Beckham as their third receivers starting on the pup list Jeff I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around what they're going to be like is there's I I never thought they were a Super Bowl Contender to begin with but they do seem like a better regular season team than they would be a playoff team and Tim constantly references the seven points they scored in the coldest game ever played in the playoffs how many points did the Chiefs score in that game 26 they ended up scoring 26 did they actually that felt like 14 to seven the entire time and then they did they break some out late on the ground I don't think so I mean I think the feel like it was like 19 to7 and they scored a late touchdown yeah so it's not like the chiefs were just piling up points on a defense that frankly the Chiefs weren't an offensive Juggernaut last year just again the Dolphins were supposed to be this revolutionary offense and Mike McDaniel had totally figured out uh you know how to change football when uh you know when speaking of coaches when when things get close he's he's a very bad in-game coach when things get close proven it over and over again so here's the problem Jeff at the Packers to end November at the Browns to end December and then the first week of January at the Jets so three frigid outdoor games like are they going to beat this rep or they just going to be a team that sucks in the cold it's rep but I still think they can get over nine and a half wins um I don't know Tim is so like unobjective when analyzing the receivers and the quarterback it seems like the defense should regress a bit cuz they lost some big players buddy on the defensive line uh van gingle fangio uh you could a couple corners but you could argue Howard and them were more trouble and and probably washed be great to get Phillips back and they also had horrible injury luck now that you're replaying it in your head but they just beat up on the bad teams they just beat the [ __ ] out of bad teams and really struggled against good teams like it was more than the snow stuff last year the whole narrative on them until or the cold the whole narrative on on them until that Cowboys game that Tim says they got lucky I mean I know 5050 play their incident game they finally won one but their whole season was about losing to good teams and beating bad teams but I still see enough bad teams on their schedule I think they'll win I don't know it's nine or 10 10 games and I'll just I'll be on the dolphin side here and I like sassy attitude Tua good for him I think we're misremembering the Dolphins defense last year they were 20th in the NFL in dvoa defense they had a lot of turnovers okay we kept having a lot of injuries but yeah they'll be worse they were 20th last year they'll be worse you can make the case from a fantasy perspective you might even like them more because you know their defense they're going to have to score as much as they did last year or more without the turnover luck and they lost a couple big names on defense so you're going over on the Dolphins I'm going to go under on the Dolphins I just think that end stretch Outdoors until they actually prove that they can do that and they're playing some pretty good defenses over that time too they have the Jets and Browns both projected I mean they were both top three defenses a year ago and they're at both those teams the final two games of the season they have the Jets in there again they have the 49ers in there again the 49ers I think were the fourth rated defense a year ago and they're at the Packers like they're and then their other game is at the Texans and everyone kind of projects the Texans to be pretty good so their final six games are some of the toughest like they really need to pile up these wins early which is there for them but I could see them doing something stupid like splitting with the Patriots and that that just ends any chance they have of the over they I mean for boy genius and I like McDonald as much as anybody I have fun watch watching them McDaniel sorry I enjoy watching the offensive play like he he schemes it up having to play them week one where he's going to put things on that field that you haven't seen on tape and your head will be spinning saw it last year with my Chargers in a week one game will not be fun all that to say he better they better do something this year and that might include winning a playoff game because you know like how could you be boy genius and go three years in the league without winning a playoff game you won week one last year because you guys decided to leave Tyreek Hill in single coverage over and over again no we lost week one last year because um that [ __ ] Corner took a pi at the end of the first half which gave the Dolphins three point we're good enough to do something like that that was a that was like a 4240 game or something stupid it was something like that but now you're competently coached so those things won't happen hope so uh I'm on Miami though NE 4.5 o-135 over Patriots four and a half their over is juice to minus 135 to win the division is 25 to1 Tim oh this makes me so happy don't seeing those numbers makes me so happy we have not uh figured out as of this recording who the starting quarterback is going to be for the Patriots it seems seems like they really don't want to start Drake May although jacobe brette sustained a shoulder injury in the final preseason game it does seem like he is going to be fine for week one do you think Tim that they start May or they start Bret they'll start Bret I mean I did read the coach say yesterday that uh that may was 100% the second best quarterback on the team that's uh that's some that's some claim they'll start for set he'll be awful they'll go to he'll be overwhelmed they'll win like three games that's the way it is really you think they'll win three games yeah three four games they're not going to get to five wins which is what they need to get to the over when's the last time they play oh they they get rid of the Jets early don't they yeah this year they're the usually we're backlogged with them uh but today or this year we're not Jeff I was envisioning in my mind that they play the Patriots and the Patriots and Jets would play week 17 or week 18 it the patriots who would knock the Jets out of the playoffs somehow no we played week 18 last year we we absolutely ended Bill bellich che's career with the Patriots with a with a great win breaking that long streak of Victories too oh that's that's true I what do you make of the new coach like they're gonna get Christian Gonzalez back who was by all accounts one of their better Defenders last year drafting him so highly and and then he ended up getting hurt so they they should be a little bit healthier at least from the onset this year maybe a new maybe a new voice in the room that's not belich although it's a bellich disciple is exactly what they need to win some of these closer games and not be just completely inept on offense one of the worst skill position groups in the in the league i' put the Chargers I'd put the Chargers up there with them but you know the Chargers have a quarterback who could convert third I mean I like Drake may but um it's just not a fun place to be I think they're the favorites Pat for first overall like that's it seems like where a lot of people have them going I don't think there's a team I think Carolina's win total was even higher or maybe exact same last year when people thought they'd be bad I was told the Raiders were so much worse oh my God I was wrong guys guess what I made a bet last year I was wrong Tim wouldn't even did he even make the bet with me I I only bet you and they played each other in that individual game but uh yeah yeah I thought a bill bich team would still just be like six and 10 you know I guess six and 11 seven and 10 I didn't think the floor would completely Bott him out it did um yeah I don't I think I'd be pretty shocked if they didn't draft in the top three they're so what they get a they get a young corner back like they're so inept of talent that you could scheme around that yeah I I don't see where you go over on them like unless Drake May comes in remember I mean you were not a victim of this of you know is Justin Herbert good is Justin Herbert not good in his first year and then he came in he was really good maybe there's a chance in week three you the the doctor comes in with a big needle stabs jacobe Bret in the lung all of a sudden Drake May has to play and he's pretty good and they win some games like there's that out for the Patriots I feel like that Drake May is actually good I like but that doesn't mean they're going to win games Country Strong friends with Philip Rivers stands in the pocket light on his feet when he's got to move like I'm a big fan I I did not buy into the draft hate around him it would suck for him to get his ass kicked all year and for them to draft first overall I don't know whether that means they would you know trade that pick which nowadays always seems to just be a quarterback but I'm not picking the over uh you know I would I would pick an ALT under before I would pick the over I I'm actually going to take the over on this if I'm going to take the under on the Jets and the Dolphins I feel like the Patriots steal a win from one of the teams in the division don't go completely 0 for six this time around and I think we do forget like their special teams was incredibly bad last year that wasn't really indicative of how the Patriots have been over the past decade or so maybe they can turn that around and they did have a top 10 defense as the Jets proved last year here despite having the worst quarterback situation in the league a good defense can steal you a few wins so maybe the Patriots top 10 defense coached by the greatest defensive coach in the history of football who's not there anymore sure but I would expect their offense to be better maybe there's a significant decline from that maybe a significant decline I mean you have the guy who was there figuring everything out had basically the same play you think he's figuring things out do you think he was figur I don't I don't actually I don't think he was figuring so you're just out on Gerard Mayo like he's useless is what you're saying I have no opinion on him one way or the other but I don't think he was that consequential the last year's coaching staff let me put it that way but they just gave him the head coaching job because of Vibes I I wait to see him on Patriots all access all right I mean it's a very difficult position to be in but I can't wait to see him on Patriots all access see what he has to say I'm sure there have been an offseason episode you could watch I don't usually watch it unless they're playing the Jets and just gets me angry all right I'm gonna usually gets me angry because belich is so dishonest so maybe it won't get me angry this time gonna be his TV star he's gonna be so good well this show is brought to you by Underdog fantasy you can use code Mayo on Underdog fantasy get that deposit bonus of up to 1,000 bucks and play in The Pick and pool for the $25,000 that's up for grabs guaranteed all that information is down in the description but Jeff Bill bich also going to have a show on underdog dog oh yeah I saw that that's right uh I think he's going to be great I mean sure he was kg as a head coach I think he's got a lot to say I think he's gonna be great I think Brady's gonna be great I'm looking forward to it I'm gonna take the bills to win this division Tim Chad Jeff I'll go with you Pat I think uh bills um by the tiebreaker I feel like it's the Bill's division to lose until they finally lose it and maybe this ends up being the year but I think it would probably watch the pat should we bet the Patriots 25 to1 to win this division that maybe that maybe belich was secretly the problem all along I think it's a down year I think down year it's part of the plan they traded judon for a third I mean I could see them trading more guys at the trade deadline this year like Kendrick Bourne Kendrick Bourne Hunter Henry you know no one left the the Patriots in Belichick's time they left the cupboard empty when he left which is also why it's really unfortunate for Drake M to play I know it's rare these days but behind that o line with those receivers it's just not fair it's not fair look at the receivers in Chicago look at the offensive skill position players in Washington just let's not push the whole Washington agenda here they have Terry mclen and a bunch of goobers that's still a lot better than what New England has okay fine I don't want to overrate it but it just seems like there's a level of um I don't know I just feel better about it the kid and like you know sometimes you can see whether you could sink or swim right away I don't know this kid might need some fine tuning despite him looking good in the preseason I feel bad if Jacob's hurt and they've got to rush and they got to rush him in cuz once you put him in it's hard to bench him without it then being awkward that gets us to the Midway point of the show which means that it's time CUST CORNER: Oasis Back Together for a mini version of cust Corner C it's c c it's C Corner he's got the hottest takes with the highest Stakes it should be president of the United States but it's C it's c c apparently it's the worst thing in the world to say that a band is incredibly overrated and that their quote unquote comeback tour is very unimpressive to me apparently that's you know it's completely unacceptable to say a few of you people online have been supportive of me but like the fact of the matter is that I'm not excited for Oasis to get back who you know I almost have to probably explain to people on this podcast who Oasis is because they haven't been a ban for 15 years so you're under the age of 40 there's a decent chance you've never heard of them but they're an English band who apparently are so amazing you you haven't seen them in concerts so you haven't really heard them like that is a terrible argument for a band because 99% of people are going to cons consume the music through the album through the recording so if they're only amazing in person that that's a problem and no I'm not excited for them to get back together I'm not excited for their just to know that they're they're traveling their music's not that good to begin with and I'm allowed to think that I'm sorry this is not the this is not the second coming of Beethoven why do you think you can't hold this opinion well I said it today and people were like oh well you clearly wrapped up the 2024 title and uh you know how dare you criticize Oasis the day that they've finally got back together like oh what a terrible thing I've done to say I think this this band is incredibly overrated thankfully some like the tour junkies were on my side but very few people were the tour junkies who who made a a full full stop when they started impersonating Tupac Jeff I like those guys all love big fan this where junkies are on my side this is like M you put any air in Tim's Tires he will retweet you that's that's quite clear um I don't know I don't support Tim knocking Oasis they you know people love Oasis I enjoy Oasis some hardcore no but you know that they're a we're you know they're a pop culture phenomenon on top of everything I don't know why you like need a [ __ ] on the parade when they get back together and people are happy about it what are people happy about oh that this band that's apparently only good in person is getting back together after 15 years if they cared about their fans so much why were they apart for 15 years well they don't well that's part of the mque they then they don't care then why are you excited you see the I mean I'm actually excited I'm excited to go see them they're one of the few that I haven't seen that I would want to go see G I like I said on Twitter if they were playing on my patio here I would close the curtains ridiculous like that's that's that's [ __ ] you'd close the curtains and I don't like I why would I want to go listen to subpar English music you don't have to like it to acknowledge that um other people people like it and it's popular yeah I'm I'm not so sure it even is popular it was popular 15 to 20 years ago when they were a band that people had heard of not a classic rock band which is what they are now I mean you basically do you think people who in their early 20s have the first idea who these people are yeah unfortunately people in their early 20s can't afford [ __ ] this is geared towards people our age and older you you're not fooling me well I mean you're still holding up for the Matchbox 20 reunion I look Rob Thomas is 100 % a better musician than either of the gers they're gonna shove 70,000 into stadiums Rob Thomas would play Casino Rama right now that's true let's see can we find Rob Thomas on tour he's he's actually playing on Tim's patio later I think well the the curtains will be open for that one Rob Thomas I don't know this upcoming events Rob Thomas he is he is playing at casinos he's playing the Thunder the Thunder Valley Casino the show at AGA Caliente Casino in Rancho Mirage California okay and Oasis is gonna sell out wimbley stadium for five nights or something am I supposed to be impressed by this a little bit yes well if you see if you see the just of position or as Jeff would say the justice of position of these two takes that listen you can hate a wasis all you want I don't care that you don't I don't even hate them I just don't think they're that good what I don't like are people trying to tell me that they're amazing because they aren't I mean you just said you just had the Jets going 17 and0 no I didn't well you wanted to but then you had to pretend like they weren't going to go 17 and0 because we know what you're up to no you don't get to put words in my mouth I'm just something like music it's art it's subjective people are clearly really excited um it's just the fact of how old you are we are like the 90s anything you know just hits harder and you're going to [ __ ] on people for being really excited about something like that was just weird to me so yeah I was one of these people who were like no Tim screw that take that's not a fair take today you said you Clos your curtains you obviously hate them you can't say that you don't hate them I don't care for them they're not the world like they have a couple of good songs like almost every band but like to say that they're like this amazing rock band like give me a break what would you say are your three favorite Oasis songs and if they have a couple good songs give me your top two I like Don't Look Back in Anger I think that that's a good beat I like stand by me I think that's a good song and I like what's the story Morning Glory I like that song too but just the story like their story is compelling of itself from the origins to now and like you know the real then you should get on a private jet then Jeff and fly over to Wembley Stadium and get a VIP backstage pass and hang out with them okay firstly that sounds awesome that's not me but um I don't like them enough surely one of your friends on the bri can lend you their PJ for the day I don't like them enough to fly across you know the pond to go see them but I'm expecting it will be a World Tour and when they do come to Toronto I will go and it takes a lot for me to want to go to a concert and I I would look forward to going to that and I think that especially for people who are our age and slightly older so if you're currently between the ages of let's say 37 and 50 that you remember how big they were in the mid 90s and then they just kind of went away when they broke up and you just didn't really hear much about them forever so there's that Mystique to them as well because they were getting talked about like at the height of like Brit like the Brit pop Wars the people were just like yeah these are basically the next Beatles like I think you forget that part of it of just how big of a pop culture phenomenon they were as a self-proclaimed pop culture Savant you are a maven off culture yes I mean they were they were a big deal but I think that hype was unjustified the music wasn't wasn't worth it the lyrics are you can't understand half of the things that are that are being said in the those songs they don't make any sense they're incoherent and I'm not going to pretend like oh I'll just Overlook that because it's got a good beat no I'm not going to do that you're so yeah okay if you're if you're 48 years old and you're real excited to see the Gallaghers play together again I guess you know good for you enjoy sping next to 70,000 other deranged people at Wembley and enjoy it deranged people huh well just deranged in the sense they go out of their way to go to see them in concert deplorables no no I should be up by 50 points by now uh no I I I just I I'm I am of the opinion that I don't that it's not impressive that they've gotten back together and have announced a tour a year from now and I don't have to be impressed but apparently it's the it's a terrible opinion to have and I've locked up the craziest Award of the year for saying I'm not impressed but it's how many acts in the entire world could do what they're like could do four or five nights selling at Wembley Stadium I know three two three four how many I'm sure I don't know I don't know not a few might be a reach to be honest Matchbox 20 because they're still currently they should tickets available at the show at the AUA Caliente Casino if you want one that's 80 bucks for a VIP ticket that'd be pretty cool you should go you should go line up maybe well given the age of the performers at the Super Bowl these days and why don't they ask Oasis to perform mean that that's the Gen that's the generation that performs now so why don't you ask them to come getting them to actually do a concert a year from now is probably a pretty big ask knowing their track record that trying to sign to the Super Bowl was probably not going to be the greatest idea yeah I would like how do you put this I think if you're the Super Bowl or the NFL you might want to see them like get along for three months before you invite them to like the Super Bowl like you might want to need to see them do at least a show or two together before you believe it and book them but one day if they actually don't hate each other again I don't think you're wrong Tim I think they could do a Super Bowl in in a few year like you're not wrong that they probably do fit the age demo that the halftime shows are coming to and they're going to hit they're going to hit that pretty soon so if they don't hate each other they'll do it oh you can go to Declassified in Washington DC with Ben fold F Ben Folds presents Rob Thomas so it's Ben Folds and Rob Thomas playing together Tim I like Ben Folds yeah bricking that's the only song I know of from Ben Folds brick not as good as the movie Brick though still sounds more enjoyable than going to Wembley Stadium to listen to Oasis I mean I'll go to Roger Center because I I doubt they're going to play here I would guess that they're going to play like Skydome or ACC or whatever it is maybe we'll have to go to Bost Olympic Stadium do they do concerts at Olympic Stadium they certainly used to well that's great I mean I guess they they used to play I presume I presume that I mean I presume the building's not condemned so I presume they do it's tough to get out to Olympic Stadium versus the Bell Center which is downtown I I guess yeah but but if you want 60,000 people you're not getting them at the Bell Center what are the odds they don't even make it to the first show 5050 the first show was like in July this is August IBN is all I'm saying is to go see them and you can hate and Wast as much as you want but you have to I guess recognize that people like them oh and it's not like disturbing that people like a popular band no no no that's not no what I didn't like was that that people would attack me for saying I think they're very overrated because they are very overrated did anyone attack you I'm looking at these comments right now yes they're all against me well not all people like the tour junkies they they agreed with me but there there were and there's a smattering of others who did but most people were opposed yeah okay that's just because they oppose you having an unpopular T I did not expect that reaction it took me a back maybe it seems like you've really underrated the cultural impact of oasis evidently I did that this band who couldn't be bothered to perform for its fans for the last 15 years is beloved when I don't think it should be it's music is not that very good okay Jeff will go Jeff will tell us all about it I'll go too I'll go with Jeff but do you have anything else that you want to get off your chest or should we move on that's what's been bothering me today okay passion Drive patience the formula for winning championships is also what keeps your right die alive eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to Peak Performance supercharger exhaust kits LED headlights and more whether you're into speed power or style eBay Motors has you covered with over 1022 million parts for your number one ride or die you'll always find exactly what you're looking for and with eBay guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors you're burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need at the prices you want it's easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusions apply everyone who tunes into the pat Mayo experience knows from time to time I like to talk to you about some health supplements that I end up taking and I've been doing timelines MIT oper now for about a month feel great and I think you can too take two soft shells a day for two months and you can see significant improvements in your cellular energy your muscle strength and your endurance that was the big thing I've been golfing more this summer and lifting less yet when I go back to the gym for my once a week like Max lift I am not really atrophying that much I'm not losing a ton of muscle which 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conference 5 to1 to win the Super Bowl I'm just going to go over I I don't like the rest of this Division and I think that they can beat up on the rest of the AFC West pretty handily maybe 5- one in the division does that sound right Jeff I mean they really could win three straight Super Bowls I'm not I don't think I've thrown a stone at them in a long time can't do anything but admire them and their ability to win different ways and I feel like they will be even better offensively with their new setup and their new toy be at the draft or Hollywood Brown coming back from injury and Rashid rice just not being suspended oh well that's [ __ ] that that that is just that is don't make a parlay but you know do what yeah that's just not cool that's not cool but I guess whatever uh like that's a real monster the kicker not a monster Rasheen rice monster but you know like Hollywood celebrities won't attack Ren rice they'll attack the kicker by the way my wife works she's really [ __ ] good at her job and I'm proud of her she's a great mother also um this team's amazing they're not going backwards spags like who's better than that guy they lost Sneed you play them as a division you see these third fourth fifth round picks just come and play and be good it's not fair proactive with signing the center who's amazing I'm sure it was a team-friendly deal because they're so good at that over there they're dominant they're so good like the the record Tim thinks the Jets will have the chiefs will probably have number one seed AFC over easy are they just T are they gonna end up being like the Patriots because we kind of saw them just go through this you know basically pulled a Jimmy Carter they had a malays forever until they didn't all of a sudden and they were the Chiefs again and they were Unstoppable do we just think like they bet them against like bet against them against the spread early in the season then do the opposite at the end of the year no just pick them constantly you'll be fine very rarely to go off off off course too much I of agree with Jeff on most of the things he said there and I certainly like the over a lot it's a round of overs for all of us are they going to win three straight Super Bowls do you think is this the team that you were talking about Tim yes yes it was so you're worried about the Chiefs that's probably sensible yes it is sensible and I don't know how not that it matters but like the league the players voting momes as the fourth best player and the Raiders showing up to training camp like trolling him with Kermit the Frog dolls and somehow they're going to play that as like the world being against them in some weird way after their road playoff run a year ago like [ __ ] man everyone's screwed who walks into the voting room for this NFL top 100 and doesn't put Mahomes at number one that seems crazy people who have access to grind yeah clearly right the only reason that that's the only logical reason I could come to I mean I I know t H who are the other players ahead of him Lamar I think I think Tariq Hill was number one was he really yeah which you know again if you're GNA do a fantasy draft in real life of players like tyriek Hill wouldn't be in the first 30 players picked like I have no doubt they'll you know they'll have a couple games they get you know they Sleepwalk through and they'll get nipped but the road playoff run last year like they they just probably feel like they got a superpower now that's stronger than whatever they even had previous which was already incredible the three players better than Patrick Mahomes as voted on by the players I guess Tyreek number one Lamar number two and Christian mcaffrey number three okay whatever I believe he beat all three of those guys in the playoffs guess that's correct that's correct miles Garrett was voted the fifth best player Oh interesting any yeah so just it's not super fun to talk about the Chiefs yeah the Chiefs are going to be good we're all going over Chargers Jeff eight and a half Juiced up to minus 155 after feeling like everyone was off LAC 8.5 o-155 the Chargers it now seems at 8 and a half wins everyone is now on the Chargers to go over that number where do you stand on Jim herbaugh the Chargers Justin Herbert and what we're going to get this year really Parham cut yeah Parham cut today uh that's kind of been expected I mean what literally statistically the worst blocking tight end in football isn't making the Jim Harbaugh roster I have no idea what to expect I'm expecting we won't be the dumbest team anymore like we will not if we are in a dog fight late you will not be able to win just by doing nothing and us giving it to you like I feel like that is all I can hope for um that's all I feel certain about that's not saying we're going to win every close game but we're not going to be that team anymore we had to gut this thing and the roster sucks I this is I'm not like down I'm down on them but like I'm excited for what the future probably holds because I'm confident it's going to work in the long term but right now they had to gut it and what did they do first they're like well we got to gut this thing and we're not going to be able to replace the two receivers we let go in this receiver world and we're going to make sure we build that foundation and Joe wal I know it's pre season the guy has looked phenomenal in about 50 snaps uh 30 of them I think were pass were passing downs and there was like one half pressure the guy just looked so good right away and maybe the offensive line is good and it can make them competitive and Herbert can convert third Downs just there's a lot of weaknesses on this team receiver corner right like important positions that a lot of teams in the league will be able to exploit them on that is my concern what is the ceiling like just a good offensive line controlling the pace of games her her being really clutch and not beating yourself yeah but that's a lot of things Pat it's like the golfer profile of like betting on the not good golfer like he's going to have to play Perfect to win the games I don't know think they're going to win seven eight or nine games that's a wide birth but I don't think they're going to be great like I don't think that's good and I think the floor is kind of high between the coach and the quarterback I think the floor is kind of high but I'm not hyped I'm not hyped I don't think they can break me um and that's going to like I said I'm not going to space this year I'm not putting on a space suit acting all crazy what will it take you to get sucked in and start going crazy oh [ __ ] we're gonna lay Quinton Johnson catching two touchdowns week one and looking like a star okay so I thought about this because I haven't had these like urges of pure adrenaline that I even got last year be like you thought they were going to suck last year and they sucked I didn't I was still ready like no there's like juice left in this part of what's happening this running gun we can do it but yeah I like just I I feel like there's no I'm not going to space but part of me does feel like Godzilla's inside of me trying to Roar well here and he wants to Roar here's what happens let's just live in a world Tim where in week four the Chargers beat the Chiefs at home in that America's game of the week uh the late Sunday afternoon game if they do that basically all their other games are coin flips and if they are better coached they don't just throw away games they have the Raiders Panthers Steelers Broncos Cardinals Saints and Browns and Titans to start the year along with the Chiefs they could be nine and0 shut up what are you doing they could certainly be seven and two yeah like they could they could start out really hot here with the schedule and then their schedule absolutely could this is this is why I like the over for this team I think there's a lot of early wins I think they're I have I have little dinosaur arms and don't make me roar like um okay sure I like I I like this team to be competitive you Jeff talked about trash teams vying for that last playoff spot way too late in the year well I think the Chargers are going to Vive for that last playoff spot till late in the year there's enough Talent there both on the behind the whistle and on the field that I think the Chargers will be competitive no but they really are depleted in Talent I'm telling they're not a team that could win the Super Bowl you're right they're a team that's going to be like trying to limp into the last playoff spot I don't even think so our defensive line our defense our interior defensive line scares the [ __ ] out of me like I get Shivers when I look at that depth chart it's like Morgan Fox ottio uh some Tate they just got from the Titans like it's a scary group I don't know what to expect from the linebackers they' have great Edge rushers Bosa Mack Tuli Bud dpri like that will be the strength Jesse M from the Mike McDonald tree like but I don't know like they are so weak at corner and interior defensive line wide receiver You could argue running back but like that's really fixable there's just too many weaknesses and between their salary cap situation they couldn't really address much last year they have four hard games this year where they will be substantial underdogs maybe they end up being a huge Underdog to the Falcons but I don't think the Falcons are an elite team by any stretch of the imagination they play the Bengals the Ravens and the Chiefs twice every other game is entirely winnable on their schedule and agree as like truly you know in my like I close my eyes I I click my heels together and I do get excited at the prospect of the type if they truly do have like a winning winning season the type of Praise Justin Herbert would get the credit for dragging this group of skilled position players around him he's not getting any hargh Jim hargh will get all the CR get all the credit no but your eyes are gonna watch the game there's gonna be so many clutch third like he yeah Jim Harbaugh will get credit but it will when it actually happens in action you won't be able to help but acknowledge like no this guy's dragging them all with them he does stays cool and collected shared experiences want to remind everyone as well on Friday August 30th that it's fill it up Friday at Underdog fantasy meaning that all existing users on Underdog fantasy use code mayo and you can get yourself a 10% reup bonus it's usually just the firsttime customers who get the big bonus of up to a thousand bucks because you're an existing customer you're putting more money on you can get a 10% bonus on fill it up Friday August the 30th with code Mayo I'm going over Tim sounds like you are too sure I am I truly feel the Chargers are and you could argue because I've argued in the past it's like one of the worst places to be but because it's the first year with a new coach that I'm excited about it kind of softens the blow I truly feel we will be the epitome of like a mid team this year and I hate like you guys I hate that but I think it's just kind of the reality of this exact moment I I don't disagree with you the one thing that I don't want to happen to you is that they start out seven and two and get to 11 and four or something like that and then you think that they're actually good and they're going to win a playoff game but if this team gets in the playoffs this is the team to bet against in the first round yeah sure but if this team gets the playoffs the o line is amazing and we're controlling Tempo yeah because you beat the [ __ ] out of the Cardinals and the Titans and the bu okay you're right you're right no it's a last place schedule can they take advantage of it it's a last place schedule with the NFC North I still think they're going to be mid but I'll say nine and eight mid like just me having to make the pick I'll go over I'm not betting it uh I know in real life you actually have to lay the juice to do it and I wouldn't feel comfortable doing it but for having to verbalize it I'll lay it one of the biggest him minus 155 to bet the over on the Chargers eight and a half crazy it's it's yeah it's a I guess they just feel like an eight people will crush them at eight and at nine they'll take no bets or it'll be too heavy to the under I I don't know CU they're not going to win 10 so if you make it nine like you'll take a lot of unders I think you'd get action on the over of nine and a half because like I said the schedule Vegas Carolina Steelers Broncos Cardinal Saints Browns Titans Falcons bucks Broncos Patriots and Raiders it just just nothing but wins there win 80% of those games and you have 10 wins LV 6.5 o-130 anyway so week one Raiders can't wait round of overs the coin though does not believe in your Los Angelus Chargers Jeff the coin is going under how about Vegas starting minu walk your guy Tim at quarterback six and a half is the win total 10 to1 to win the division three to1 to make the playoffs I never think the Raiders are going to be good so I'm just going to go straight under for them I'm going to go under what the Haven improved in any significant way they hired a coach they were forced to hire because there would have been a a mass Revolt in the locker room if the second interim coach in three years didn't get the job um they Gardner mchu is not very good they have Devonte Adams who wants out like The Vibes are not good the Raiders are just in a very stacked conference I just don't see very many paths for the Raiders to win very many games so six and 11 is right right where they ought to be maybe in five and 12 so I'm take the under round of unders Jeff are you going to believe in the Raiders this year after getting burned by them so badly last year yeah burned big with the alt unders as well um I got a buddy out in Vegas who also hates the Raiders and he told me some casinos out there were posting sevens I guess at minus 110 playing on the like local market um so i' certainly wanted a piece of that I'll play the Raiders under 6 and A2 I do not have the guts to play all Thunders that's reserved for somebody else Tim alluded to something and I'll make it about me again okay have you ever done that before I cannot I cannot well like usually like longwinded through shows but haven't brought them up much and I figured I could save this for the Raiders segment in my like head my long-term dream is that Thursday night football game changed the course of everything for both teams I know the score wasn't 62 to7 but in my mind it will always be 62 to7 it for it embarrassed the Chargers so much to fire Staley it embarrassed him so much to have to pay a coach and it really did Lay the groundwork he also went on to beat the Chiefs but there was like Rocket Fuel put on by that Thursday night game for Antonio Pierce who was the favorite to hire Jim Harbaugh before that Thursday nighter kicked off in the following year it was the Raiders it was the Raiders so in the end he ended up on the Chargers I think there's a high floor ceiling variance on what hece could be I'm hoping it's the floor I'm anticipating it's the floor they doubled down by hiring a GM who hasn't had a a second day draft pick resign in like six years how the [ __ ] you build a football team okay they hired that guy let's go let's go maybe I will play the all Thunders so many Playmakers on offense though the men sucks I mean they have a few play have Devonte Adams on offense they have zamir white who's like a mediocre back who they're going to start jacobe Meyers who I like and scores the first touchdown of every game for the Raiders so that's the bet on him ex except when you pick Meyer not to get the first touchdown of the game Christian walk Wilkins the defensive tackle for Miami who's incredible okay but defensive tackles in free agency at Big Money there's a long history of those like never panning out and I hope it doesn't I's a beast I was looking at Raiders fewest wins 12 to one the only thing I think the odds are too short really yeah I don't think you're getting enough value there I don't know like this is usually where the worst record comes from is this and we've I've hit this the last two years I hit Chicago and I hit Carolina last year and it's been in this range is where everything comes from like they have the Titans at 8 to1 for the fewest ones I mean we'll get to the Titans I think they're going to be fine I think we get to the Broncos they're going to be fine the Panthers playing a [ __ ] division it could be the Giants it could be the commanders it's probably not the Vikings the Patriots are the heavy favorites which they should be but 12 to1 just I just see this team being really bad the the biggest thing that they have in their favor like throw let's throw out the 20120 season cuz like fans weren't really around for that but in the past three years they ' been well above 500 they had one year at 500 and two years above 500 at home Jeff it's still baked in that I don't know if the Lions reflected or not I'm sure that they do but when teams go to play in Vegas that they might not give their best effort that Sunday that's interesting because their home field advantage You could argue they've lost it if you've pan out and ever looked at the crowds there uh outside of playing like three teams in the entire league yeah but but it's not as much as the fans being there as a home field advantage it's that the team gets to Vegas they [ __ ] go out and then they have to it's like when it's like the the Sunday afternoon Raptors when just all of a sudden the Raptors were like undefeated for three years on Sunday Sunday afternoon at one Eastern Sunday at noon at noon at noon because all the other teams are too [ __ ] hung over to play yeah yeah because you know it didn't count is cheating if it was in another country and we got a good we got a fun downtown um obviously the thing that would have to go or break your way here Pat is it starts poorly clearly they trade Devonte Adams and it's sort of like an organizational mandate we're going to be bad and we're going to draft that quarterback yeah I don't think they'll be afraid to tank if it goes bad like they'll put AOC back in there see muu the one thing I am maybe this a comment for next week but he was the preseason leader in starting quarter like guys who will start week one dropbacks and last year it was like a very favorable win loss record versus like players who played in the preseason versus players who didn't um so M's got a lot of reps in this this summer Herbert not many round of Rogers none Rogers none well he's got reps like you know throwing a ball at the Sphinx in Egypt or something like that is he is he back from Egypt yet yeah he is he's back and ready to roll H when Tim pops and he lists one by one his twoyear long list of grievances on things Aaron roders did is going to be one of the greatest segments ever the critical games for the Raiders for like if they end up with the fewest wins week three and week five you should probably know by then because they play the Panthers and they play the Broncos they lose those games and start 0 and5 it's on that'd be my takeaway at least just playing the other teams around that it's just like when was the Bears lost the Bears lost the Texans in the last week to get the number one pick right Jeff is that what happened Bears lost to the Tex years ago yeah Lovey Smith screwed the Texans yeah yeah out of the number one pick although it really worked out in their favor because they got Stroud yeah all right Denver Denver tap up next five and a half over to minus 130 I am going DEN 5.5 o-130 over on the Broncos five and a half I just think that they're better than the Raiders it's one fewer win and listen I don't know how much you can put into the preseason although we did see preseason MVP Zack Wilson have another electrifying preseason game for the Broncos Tim and it looks like he is going to make the team as the third string quarterback but bonex looks all right and I think that he can execute what Shawn Payton wants now that they've kind of Flushed everything down the toilet uh of Russell Wilson losing those picks trying to rebuild I think that we're finally starting to see this team at least this offense get formed into what Shawn pton Payton wanted it to be when he first came over and he didn't feel like he had the right pieces now he's going to be there for a while but I do feel like you need to see some improvement from this Broncos offense to be efficient again if he is going to be taken seriously going forward sure I agreee with all of that I do agree with your over I think the over under is too low um I'm not super convinced that Bo Knicks who was everybody's last choice at quarterback is somehow the right person to to get Denver going in the right direction I don't know maybe he is I doubt it but at the same time they have more defensive Talent than the Raiders do they I I just don't look I can't imagine looking at these rosters and saying I like Oakland better than I like Denver I just can't can't so there's no team in Oakland so that would probably be why I'm going to take the Broncos to go slightly over that number the Broncos defense is horrible now that that's not necessarily true they had the game where they gave up the the 100 points to the Dolphins last year they didn't even finish as the worst defense after that yeah it got much better after that that was that was sort of what come to Jesus moment for them they've lost some quality starter I don't think it's going to be a better unit um I'm getting plus money to bet them under five and a half correct which means when I play them on their all Thunders it's it's you know almost at like plus 200 uh to play them at minus four and a half which I will be doing along as alongside my under five and a half like the Raiders like Raiders cost me the money last year I'm liking this late hype on the whole operation there cuz it's it's created an opportunity I believe uh under all Thunder you're the only one going under even the coin is going over with Tim andai on the Broncos it's just bonck might not be any good Tim I agree with you but I think he's in the right spot for what his skill set is maybe but like this team's got six wins in them and that's enough to get it over yeah he absolutely is in the right spot because I believe like I do believe in some of what is being said that you know he can make he will be willing to make the open throw short that for some reason Russell Wilson wasn't able or willing to make we'll see we'll see when we get into actual games whether that's the case oh don't get me wrong just chatter until that I hope he's a bust not too much of a bust where they'll want to like try again next year you're almost like you know how I say it like I'm a horrible quarterback evaluator but you want to see some ceiling where they like want to stick with it uh but yeah I'll be honest like in the same way Tim hopes Drake May sucks like anytime a division rival dress a first round quarterback you hope that's not the guy you'll be playing in 10 years I think people forget they were nine and eight last year a ridiculous nine and8 look at the points they were scoring do you remember those games they couldn't even move the ball I want to bring up the schedule it was so ridiculous that Buffalo game I don't want to give Paul nightmares I don't oh oh was that was that the Christmas Eve game oh that was against the Patriots which was another ridiculous game their turnover luck was so stupid and insane they couldn't even score touchdowns and they were winning it was oh it bothered me so much they lost they lost to the Patriots on Christmas Eve by the way yeah but it was like that it was end it was a ridiculous game it ended with a long I know it was a long field but ended like this weird field goal to finish no I understand that it was just they didn't beat the Patriots who were objectively terrible last year and they still went eight and nine it was the most inflated eight and N sure but now their win total is five and a half and by all accounts I think we all agreed that they couldn't have got worse a quarterback no yeah there's a um like I agree you could totally convince someone there going over that signs point to it being right I just feel like there's just been too much hype around them and that that they've got it right the way I like I don't have this Vendetta like Tim did last year but again like he's just a cocky coach in the division who wears a woman's Gul viser and he's being he's beaming from ear to ear about his quarterback you know and thinking like literally saying in interviews that I wasn't gonna like he wanted him so bad and he wasn't going to let what happened to to him when he wanted momes happen again um and I'm just like [ __ ] this no no this this pendulum has swung too hard on the bow Nick summer hype that now I can get like decent plus money at their normal under thank you weeks 2 to six last year they gave up 35 points to the commanders 70 points to the Dolphins 28 points to the Bears and 31 points to the Jets Tim that was the one good Zack Wilson game wasn't it yeah D but a low moment and then they swept the Chargers the rest of the season they gave up 30 points 30 points or more once in their final 11 games yeah they figured that out yeah their defense was not clearly as bad as they as everyone just you have that I mean the 70 is bad 31 points of the Jets might be even worse it's not as bad but it's it's close any that got so burned in and ingrained in people's mind that I think that their defense is probably I don't know the 21st best defense or something like that if they play like that the offense is slightly better I just think they get to the five and a half wins I will be picking Kansas City to win the division though yeah of course same here same all right let's move to the South the Houston Texans are up first a lot of HOU 9.5 o-140 hype around these Houston Texans nine and a half is their win total that's Juiced to minus 140 am I I mean this is like maybe this is like Tim's Oasis take I don't know but Jeff am I crazy to think that maybe the Texans are not quite as good as everyone thinks they are I was going to kind of come in with that take that like maybe the hype is a little too much maybe Jeff will be the one to save you but I don't know Pat I look at the roster and it's just um it's a really talented roster that's taking advantage of the rookie quarterback contract allowing them to make some big moves I'm not surprised if they actually end up being one of the best teams in football so I've had a real tough W with this but I do believe the whole division will be a lot more competitive than people think that's where I'm at too I'm going to go under on the Texans they actually kind of remind me a lot of last year's Lions Tim that everyone was just kind of on them but the Lions did it that they hit their own I was going to say if that's the case you better take them over well no that but that's thing I was wrong on the Lions last year I'm willing to be wrong on the Texans this year and just you know at this point last year the Jags couldn't be beat it was impossible they were a lock to win this division but I'm with Jeff I think all four of these teams are a lot closer than the numbers would suggest here with the wi tot don't don't know if I agree with that oh I'm drinking some AFC sleep koola Koolaid I I guess you are because I think two teams are really bad and two teams are okay um the Texans are okay um GE do I want to go them over or not two overs and two unders so I'll take I don't want to go three unders and one over so I'll take them over I'm maybe I'm not as like Delirious with the hype train as like people were with the Lions last year I think they're going to be a 10 to 11 win team though they should have that that talent I mean if you believe in stad and you think Stout is a top five to top eight quarterback you're obliged to take the over and if you don't think he's a top five day quarterback then you can't take the over I actually think it's a really simple one I will I actually think it's that simple I will take the over because nine and a half even like they don't even have to live up to the full hype to clear that um I'm not looking to bet on them to be as great as people say but if they are I'm not shocked but yeah I'll pick I'll pick the over I might have way too many overs in this division we'll see I just see them as being the the what people think is like the off theboard pick to win the AFC this year like they're that team now they probably are an off theboard pick to win the to win the AFC will take them but a lot of people are taking them like they're not taking the Chiefs win the AFC yes because no one wants to take the Ravens no one wants to take the bills no one really wants to take the Bengals this is the like the the sports rer like oh I'm going I'm or or losing to the Chiefs in the AFC no I mean if you have people who like their money then yeah sure favor to win the division so I do agree with Pat we see this a lot like in golf like we're always looking to like get excited about the team you think can like Dethrone the guy and at this moment in the same way like it was the bills for a bit like I think people are really excited to say this Houston team will be the team that challenges The Mountaintop in the AFC this team is ludvig oberg who have has all the talent and skill but in the end just really can't must up yeah and he didn't win this year he didn't he didn't win he didn't win a regular event he played great I think he's got a lot to be proud of but he couldn't get a couldn't quite get to the mountain top couldn't cross the line and had a lot of moments and a lot of big events be it major elevated FedEx Cup had a lot of big opportunities um and we're always just excited to be like okay this guy's going to knock off you know the giant I agree with Pat I think that is the because of the bills fatigue and if it's not the Bengals I feel like this is the team people are picking CJ Str is the second favorite to Wi MVP that seems a bit hyp a bit much you think so but like if this team were to the South which I don't think is as good as you guys think it is were to like have a stupendous season and this team went 14 and three or 15- two with a softer schedule would wouldn't say it's impossible I listen I don't I don't I don't think it's impossible either but I mean you just mentioned Lamar Jackson who's already won too he's 18 to one no one has ever won three MVPs without winning a Super Bowl sure Jaylen Herz in a probably weaker division at least from top to bottom is 14 to one yeah I wouldn't be I wouldn't be recommending him at 8 to one if they won those games I actually think Ryan could get the coach of the year he was robbed of last year um because the Browns one with four quarterbacks and this isn't a the Texans are going to stink and I don't necessarily think this division is all that great over top to bottom I just don't think that the bottom end is as bad as some people are projecting I think these teams are actually a lot closer than people think that if you know Houston goes N9 and eight or eight and N I think that's well within their range of outcomes here they and if they go 14 and three they go 14 and three and St probably does win MVP maybe they do make the championship game like I do think that's at their other end of the bell curve of what I'm probably trying to bet against but I do think that they're probably a much better BET next year than they would be this year when people feel like they got burned a little bit by them now almost a lot like I mean I'm going to go under you3 are going over I mean the coin is going over you two are going over yeah take the over I kind of feel like JAX 8.5 o-110 what Houston is going to be next year Jacksonville might be this year I'm picking Jacksonville to win the division so am I and they I like Jacksonville's over here yeah they're eight and a half minus 110 to the over everyone got burned by them last year Jeff how could they ever be good again but they're going to be fine yeah I agree I don't I like the roster makeup I like this whole div I think even the teams that people perceive are at the the bottom are going to be uh better I I'm not as like hard on Trevor Lawrence as a lot of people are I guess when you were that high of a pick with that sort of hype you know like maybe it's not like the best thing that the thing that I think about with him is like toughness the guy's played through so many [ __ ] injuries and he he suits it up I I really do like I really do like this group I think that they do totally bounce back um he'll be healthy the defense obviously could always use a an upgrade but I like this team I'm I'm going over I might go over way too much in this division their beginning of the season schedule could be very difficult here it might be it might be worth jumping in if you they have a bye-week week one okay they're at Miami week one then they're at home against the Browns they're at the bills at the Texans tough the are you using them in Survivor week one no the whole world is taking the Bengals in week one in Survivor it's a bye so yeah you just you just said it's a bye you might as well take them those are your words I know what I said but no you sure you is the only person here on the panel who's actually had a perfect Survivor season I don't need to take tips from anybody else who hasn't done it how to do it how much money have you won lifetime in Survivor versus losing in Survivor it's all about the credit because you you you've you claimed to have this perfect season yet you are a career claim it happened on this a career loser monetarily when it comes to it so in the one that you actually played for money you didn't make those picks I had a perfect season on this show you did this is just sour grapes from you because you you haven't accomplished it maybe one day you will but until then take notes I'm teaching you a class for free here hey look I'm the only I mean Jeff probably has too but I'm up money lifetime in Survivor so you have much to learn from me about this so just take not I I don't think so I mean it just sounds like you're I when you say things like I like credit and you can't point to the money just sounds like you're poor didn't you after after being alive after week three last year didn't you say you had a 5050 chance to win or something yeah I did but 50% of the time you lose and that's what happened that ended up winning a custy I think I'm sure it did that receiver that Jags drafted is going to be as good as the dudes at the top of the draft as well Brian Thomas I like Christian name yeah I think jackville is gonna be good and I like them I really do like them week one I have to be honest then you should take him in surviv but yeah this early if they can just go like two and two to start the season or even knock off the Texans in Houston then you know it's game on for this division the Colts are 8 and a half as well they are IND 8.5 o-105 Juiced to minus 105 so you can actually it's minus 115 to bet the end cuz Sports books they like taking the rake on both sides Tony Richardson hunky Tony is back we'll see how long he holds up they have flacko not Garder mchu backing him up this year they're plus 340 to win the division if we talk about any team that is like completely average in the NFL Jeff this is the team that I think of but I think they have a chance to be pretty decent though I I don't like how good is Anthony Richardson honestly like I think he's fantasy good that's great and everything but how that that translate Justin Fields was fantasy great didn't really help them win games I like The Playmakers I would argue the group as a whole it's a pretty underrated team they're pretty solid um you like their Playmakers you like Jonathan Taylor and you like like Michael Pitman is your one that's doing it for you yeah no they got all those really they got all those really they they have Michael Pitman and like the Chargers B team as the rest of the receivers they've got all those they've I don't know they played hard with they played well with muu last year so it makes me excited about what could actually happen I wouldn't be excited if Flaco uh I wouldn't be excited if Flaco has to play I I would tell you that but I don't don't I mean sure they lack some levels of like star power but it's a pretty balanced team with really strong o line dline and I like the coach so I might go over four overs in a division and I don't think I'll get burned I'm going under the coin is going under Jeff is going over the eight and a half again this isn't a three and4 team but I just very clearly see this 8- n seven and 10 could they get the over sure if Anthony Richardson's really good and he holds up and stays healthy I just think that that's not going to happen to him under I don't believe in this team I think they overperformed last year and things just kind of broke right for them that they had a win and in Opportunity at the end of the year I don't I I don't trust this team and yeah Joe Flaco's backing up like you just there's you just have so few outs I there's like three or four players that like legit matter on this team and uh they don't tend to be skill position players so and you don't like Richardson Tim i Richardson gets a big old fat incomplete no idea not willing to decide one way or the other yet that's kind of where I'm at with him like he could be excellent but he could be really bad too because all all we really Robert Griffin or he could be a star he could be he could be uh Lamar I don't know yet we'll see like all we saw from him last year Jeff was just him running and then him having to leave every game because he got hit that's it and then he was just out for the year and that's sort of like what I worry could happen to Jaden Daniels but sort of like Richardson if they're healthy they're both amazing and I think the teams can be really good Tennessee is the final team we are covering in the AFC their win total is six and a half that's actually Juiced to the under so you get plus 110 on the over I am going TEN 6.5 o+110 over on the 10 Leon Jeff your guys Levis is fine he's not great I like having Hopkins and Ridley as my receivers Po and Spears out of the back field for 2019 I'd like those guys that's not that's not bad for a guy who's just kind of I mean Hopkins was still pretty effective at contested balls last year um and he is dealing with a bit of an knee injury he should be ready for week one and Ridley had his moments like they're not expected to be good there's six and a half wins that's not that many in a division where I think that maybe the Texans aren't as great as everyone projects them to be that the Colts are a little bit worse and the Jags are right about where people think they're going to be at that there's a lot of wins up for grabs in this division and I think the defense will be a little bit better in Levon year two know he's going to make some plays he's going to throw people out of games it's going to happen but I think it's more likely that he's slightly below average than one of the worst quarterbacks in football I am with you I am on the over I think this is one of the more underrated teams in the league I'm excited for the new coach and what he could do with Will Levis I I know it's a separate you know single related thing I'm super excited to see Levis vers Caleb in week one like the amount of like insane ceiling Chucks and like pick sixes like going both ways I think is going to be so much fun maybe that's a hard over game I'm not really a total better that's just sort of I think it could be a main screen game next week actually at one o' I think it could be a main screen game oh well nothing better than that I mean I'm excited for it as a football nerd but there's got to be something like higher profile and than the Titans it did were you don't really care all that much about high-profile and whatever that is no I want to see Caleb wi no yeah you're right but I'm saying like like that' be I I can't remember the grid off the top of my head it could be Jags Dolphins it depends who's attendance yeah no I'm not I think in terms of like how fun that game could be you're probably right like it if I to bet on a game to be the most fun at 1:00 week one it's Caleb vers will Levis honestly BS and pick sixes it is one of the three best games the three best games are Texans Colts Jags dolphins and Titans bears like Ste Steelers Falcons doesn't really rev my engine in the arur Smith Revenge game it may not find it may not find a TV well there's not that many games early I guess I guess it's not plus there's a Friday game and uh two Mondays is there two Monday just one M no just just one Monday but I think they have more five o00 games for whatever reason there's four you I have week one you get Nance Raiders Chargers gets Nance which I was shocked about he probably wanted to stay home but I was shocked that they would have the nans and Romo team go up against Brady because there's a C uhow Brown premiering yeah is premiering at four o'clock uh week one but I can't wait to talk about week one next week I like I said I said a couple times I think the Titans you have to like AFC sleeper team like the win total's six and a half so it's not like crazy but yeah I think they cleared this number I'm excited I think the coach is going to draw up some nice pitch and catch for will Lis yeah if they have a competent offense I I don't think that they're necessarily like out of this division either if the division is like I said a lot closer than I think that it is I don't think 10 to1 is the craziest bet for a team that could legitimately have the fewest wins in football like they could be got awful at the same time but but I do think that the bones of this team is still there and I don't hate how they look offensively especially with the bringing cahan in and what he could potentially do in scheming these guys into the proper positions but you hate them Tim nah I mean I don't hate I just don't trust them I like the under all right let's I think people are like just blindly picking on them for a lot of obvious reasons they don't check many boxes and vel's gone and everyone really respected vel's getting the most he was a Tomlin type figure of getting the most out of mediocre Talent well maybe he wasn't yeah no that'll be interesting to follow and we could be proven wrong Pat and I like really quick we could like by like the end of week three be like oh [ __ ] like there's a top to bottom Gap in the AFC South that a lot of people were right about I guess Tim included that I didn't see coming I really think the Gap isn't like that big I think a lot of head-to-head I think there's going to be a lot of head-to-head fun in this division even if people aren't expecting it so who are we taking to win this division because I'm going to take Jacksonville I am too mean I'll take I'll take Houston old chalk donkey Jeff Houston Kansas City Buffalo and the Bengals so Buffalo is your off theboard pick this year to win a division of the AFC what's your Jacksonville yeah Jacksonville I don't like I don't know I don't want all be on I came in this thinking I was going to fade the Texans I didn't want all three of us be on the Jags and like I don't think that Texans are going to meet their ceiling I don't know my prediction is this is everyone goes over their win total okay well that leads us to the playoffs and the AFC Championship game do you guys got picks AFC WINNER/Super Bowl Picks Chiefs over Jets not even picking the Jets to go to the Super Bowl huh no I'm gonna pick the Chiefs over the Jets and the Chiefs to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl I forgot you picked you really pissed off Chicago the comments last week too bad they were upset last year when we picked against them we're upset when we picked for them can't please them I am going to go [Music] with Kansas City Over Buffalo in the championship game and I'll go Kansas City over Philadelphia in the Super Bowl My Success is your success your success is My Success Jeffrey I guess it'll be for the third time but Bengals play the Chiefs in the title game Bengals win eag beat the Bengals in the Super Bowl Cincy over Kansas City and then Cincy or then Philadelphia over Cincinnati yeah I get that's what you can put me down for all right picking the NFC to win this year aggressive as Kansas City I bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl so I'm just like that's the bet I have that's the pick I'll make do they have the most wins in the league CU I feel like that's the Eagles are they the favorites can't find Wind totals now I had it up before let's see if they make me reload the whole thing most wins I got it yeah most wins Eagles N9 to one it's not terrible no chiefs and 49ers are the favorites and then the Lions and then Bengals Ravens Eagles are all tied at nine Jets 14 to one him I don't hate it I think this is a very good regular season team I'm less confident about the postseason all right well that will do it on the AFC win total show you can find all the results in the Mayo media newsletter uh which should be out right now so go down to the description you can play in that Underdog season long pickham pool that I'm putting on $225,000 up for grabs you need to have an underdog account if you don't have one use code Mayo at Underdog right now and get yourself a deposit bonus up to a th000 bucks there's also that Travis Kelce free Square which will be available starting on Thursday the week before Thursday Night Football get your free squares where you can get them get your deposit bonuses where you can get them Jeff if there's one thing we know the only way that you can beat any of these places is by taking advantage of the free money that they give away yeah hopefully more there used to be a lot more free money around well there's $25,000 of free money that I'm giving away from them to you good people out there if you go go play in the pool I'm look I'll take advantage of all the free money promos and I'll roll that [ __ ] over it's football season doesn't bother me yeah we're gonna be playing it anyway so I want to thank Jeff I want to thank the coin for being here right now Paul and Jared for mixing everything together and of course Tim andercust Tim and gust that's not my name do you know what I mean yeah yeah going to get you that's what getting you for Christmas a waste tickets Please Don't and then you'll have to use them because they're a gift please don't get you the plane tickets too to go see him be like Abe Simpson at Woodstock with my arms crossed asking people to sit down so every Tuesday evening we'll be recording the show you can get the advanced copy in the Mayo media newsletter when it comes out on Tuesday evening everyone else will have it either Wednesday morning or Wednesday evening I'm excited for this to be back and Sunday Night Live to be back too which I think people are pretty excited about yes happy to hear that don't know if we have a conceit for the show this year yet or if we're gonna have one but well do do you want me to give you some inside info on what I've been trying to do and I don't know if it's going to come to fruition I got to talk to the advertiser rep but Wendy's was actually wanting to sponsor the show that we try a new Wendy's item every week I would be so on board with trying a different Wendy's item every week this is such a great idea except when it's some bougie Frosty that's not chocolate right Tim I'm willing to try anything I love Wendy's I love it I love it so good yeah so having Wendy's is a sponsor if you see it week one you're GNA know why you should tweet at Wendy's if you're watching you made it this You' made it over two hours into the show big Super Fan thank you so much go use Underdog and tweet at uh Wendy's as well tell them you want them to sponsor the pme Sunday Night Live show for great product placement because it'll get talked about and it will get shared Tim yes it will we'll patch up our uh our our longtime Twitter feud between Wendy's and me like when they dunked on you well that's a matter of opinion it'd be a fun sponsor it most definitely would be all right so that'll do it for me uh rate review subscribe rate and review uh the audio podcast for this show I'll be drawn someone to win $500 cash who does that and it'll help us bump us up in the chart so you know win-win for all of us so please go do that sub to the Channel smash the like while you're here and we got it we got like six straight months of football coming your way so enjoy all right I'm Pat Mayo I'll see you next time pat Mayo experience experience