Nascar Cup Race 25 - Daytona F 24 - Draftkings Race Preview

all right fired up let's do your thing here but nobody's any better at this than you are that's F take deep breath give like figh like hell like we do every week you are the best here be affirmative you told me ready ready slow green green lock it down lock it down I'm destroyed and I just got drove through like six times by the 14 is he thinking that is the stupidest thing I've seen in my career literally everything you described is accurate haven't even finished the second stage yet half the feeli wck hell yeah 11 got it proud of you there thanks man good job great work my man great work keep putting yourself in position we'll win our share right we got one back today brother good job for a great job [Music] [Music] guys and welcome back to racing in the draft my name is Mark I appre appreciate you tuning in for a guess much earlier Edition than normal usually it's 10:00 on Saturday nights but uh since they'll be probably 20 laps to the finish of the race that probably won't work so we're live noon today on Saturday thanks for tuning in make sure you hit the like And subscribe button uh we are closing in on 100 subscribers and we love to get there before the playoffs start so you've got anybody that uh you know that also bets on Nascar or does DraftKings with nasar car and thinks that they could uh use some of this valuable information make sure you tell them or share this video and uh have them like And subscribe that would be great I'd appreciate it so we'll have a push for a for a 100 and maybe we'll give something away I don't know we'll figure something out uh but either way we are headed to Daytona for tonight it is um I mean any of the drafting style tracks are always kind of the Lottery um but there are some things that we can do to um mitigate some of the chances and uh it's still I mean the big one almost always happens at Daytona I can't remember a Daytona Talladega Atlanta race that has not had some type of decent amount of Carnage so keep that in mind when setting your lineups um but before we head to Daytona let's go back to Michigan where Tyler reic fin only got that win that's an interesting graphic why is that so strange me fix that real quick hold on what that is either way okay sorry about that it was going to bug me um ttic ended up getting that win um he'd been runner up or next to runnerup for I don't know since Darlington or something and even in Darlington he had one of the fastest cars so literally for like the last 10 weeks Tyler reic has been um creaming the crop on fire whatever you want to call it um I mean if he keeps this pace up he probably be I mean I'd hate to say a shoe in for the championship but that's going to be hard to stop um he has just been on a roll lately so let's look at the optimal lineup from Michigan uh yeah so definitely missed a couple um I guess I probably should have seen the Kyle Bush play coming into effect after the really good performance from Austin Dylan it seems like the Olympic break definitely probably helped the RCR um the Richard Children's Group the most um they seem to be at least maybe got a uh a rabbit's foot or a horseshoe or something lucky to help them uh get get better uh to say the least or get the the the monkey off their back um but tartic like I said has just continued to show the way so far in the Nascar Cup Series no true dominators but kind of expected that with all the different strategies we kind of talked about that uh in last week's episode um so no real true dominators I mean Tyler reic LED 25 laps um Martin trick Jr did lead 28 laps um but other than that no real dominators um I'm sorry Tyler L 15 Kyle Bush Leed 24 but still I mean 28 was kind of the most out of a 400 lap race um we're going to see something very similar today um we potentially could have somebody that gets out front and stays out front because nobody really wants to pass and honestly leading the race um at Daytona or any of the drafting tracks since you're the one pulling the freight train around you use a little bit more fuel mileage and your fuel mileage goes down um and this this shameful as it is is turned into a fuel mileage type of race at these super Speedways all right but but let's take a look um we had zaye Smith good for Zane Smith but uh I guess that wasn't enough for him to stay at track house he was um released from his contract for next year for track house so Zayn Smith is a free agent that's a pretty solid free agent uh if there's a team out there that's still got room in their stable uh zann Smith would be a a huge pickup in my opinion I'm I mean the problem is track house has just started to stack that stable and they they started to have they had let some of these guys go um William Byron uh also did really well coming from starting from the top 10 and getting a runnerup finish so good on Byron and we can see the other drivers down here but we had three Place differentials one value four guys that finished in the top five and we had $900 left on our salary cap uh once again salary cap for today will not come into play fact you do not want to get close to a uh 50,00 salary cap today um and we'll we'll go over that in just one minute but optimal lineups challenge after 24 races BR kazlowski Christopher Bell and look at there Tyler reck Kyle Larson All leading the way Kyle larsson's one away not sure this weekend will help him much but we'll see um Ty Gibbs William Byron kind of kind of still there got their presence being known all right let's get rid of Michigan let's all right here here's this the stupid practice stuff um that absolutely makes no sense whatsoever um yeah none of it showed up anything I mean other than people who overperformed in qualifying really didn't show up other than Tyler reic and Zay Smith everybody else was kind of kind of bad um so maybe there was a little bit of who not to take but then you may not have taken Tyler R and Zayn Smith I don't know I cannot figure out these practice laps um compared to what's going to happen in the race and I think a lot of that has to do with just the crazy strategies we have seen this year and teams that are willing to roll the dice um to try to get track position and track position being so big um the practice fastest guys in practice I mean didn't show up either I mean the finishes of I mean Ross was first he finished 25th now Ross with two laps to go or one of the green White Checks was running in the top 10 and got taken out Martin trick Jr also had a very fast car and didn't have the day he wanted Kyle Larson um screwed up which I guess happens with Kyle Larson even though he's the best driver in the world sh on um I mean William Barron so I mean all four of the guys were fast and they were competitive in the race they just didn't get the finishes that they needed bubble Wallace same thing I mean he had a great fast car and he got collected in the Kyle arson incident um so I guess I guess there was something there but I mean the strategies and the accidents just definitely didn't play um and I mean this was way off we've had a couple weeks where this this hit and it was really good and useful but uh if you went off of this we we missed the boat so I didn't have a awful week last week I was doing pretty well all the way up until they Martin trick Jr hit the wall and they threw the caution and then all everything went out the door so if they would have just finished out that race I was probably going to win a couple hundred bucks but they did it and Ross ended up going to the back which was one of my picks and all sorts of melee started to happen after that and lots of position changes and I lost a little bit that's okay we are Daytona um I love these Daytona races um for some reason I just do really well with DraftKings and them now that I say that I will probably win $0 this weekend I'm kidding um I I I broke even last night in the xinity series and for a while there I was placing first in the Chrome horn so but you never look until I mean I always watch it uh but you don't ever count those chickens until DraftKings sends the money to your account um especially at these big tracks with big Rex and NASCAR trying to figure out who finishes where all right Coca-Cola zero sugar 400 why can't they just call it the Coke Zero 400 the Coke Zero sugar 400 just I don't know too long um I'm not sure why they just got rid of the coke 400 but hey it's Coke whatever um we are at Daytona Super Speedway 2 and half miles in length 31° in the banking today's race length is 160 laps Dominator points of 112 which will mean nothing nothing I say absolutely zeroed even if you were to lead all the laps you'd get 40 points and then if you literally all right let's say who's got the poll it's um Michael mdow Michael mdow goes out and let's say he leads all 160 laps and everybody else is still in the race and well he wouldn't leave all 160 laps but um he let 158 laps and he got 39 a half points but he wrecks on the last lap and finishes 40th he's literally going to have like one point or two points of DraftKings bading laps at Daytona mean absolutely nothing when it comes to DraftKings fast laps because of the draft you'll have the 31st Place guy get the fastest lap and then the fourth place get the fastest lap then you'll get the I mean we never see we hardly ever see anybody in double dig digits for fast laps and that's where the majority of Dominator points come from so Dominator points mean absolutely nothing this is absolutely finishing position well actually it's Place differential and finishing position that's all that matters for DraftKings for this race um and I mean I hate to say it but with DraftKings we are looking for Carnage and we're looking for Carnage up front I mean even if there's not um I mean an Eric Jones who's starting 40th today makes it up to 10th he's going to have 30 points of place differential over 30 points of um finishing position position he's going to have 60 points and if Martin Trix Jr not Martin trck J um Michael madal slips to third he's going to have like about the same amount of points so Eric Jones all to get a top 10 to be as valuable as somebody that's sitting on the pole and it's much more dangerous to be sitting on the pole because if they have one slip you you're going to lose lose points so um other track comparisons we can now still also continue to use Atlanta up to this point we'll see this track's starting to wear a little bit and it's becoming much more of a handling track and because of the amount of laps that they run it does kind of start to bring in a little bit of the dominat but Daytona and Talladega absolutely we can use those as comparisons optimal lineups from previous Daytona races that we can look at um and I mean I say this every time we come here look at the starting positions for Daytona 38 28 29 18 is the highest starting spot 24th 34th and we had $4,600 of salary cap left over salary cap means nothing today um now the the fall race last year's Daytona was a little bit closer we actually almost got to a $50,000 expenditure but $600 less and even then if we go back and look at it you really didn't have to spend that there were enough guys down here that were close to this that would have put you close to Optimal lineup that still would have won some some decent money um but once again six Place differentials 37 31 29 or 39 27 12 and 11 okay two guys just outside the top 10 starting spots ended up making the optimal lineup but let's look here the 2023 Daytona 500 $113,000 of Rec cap left over the best starting position was ninth so we do have one top 10 starter making the altim lineup but everybody else I mean 40th 24 38 29 31 Riley herps Travis pastron I mean yeah it's it's crazy and then the fall race of 2022 here $118,800 this was the million play that there were couple of guys who bet on everybody that started in the back of the pack I mean look at this 37 35th 36th 33rd 34th it was insane and we had $118,000 800 left inane do not worry about salary caps do not worry about people starting in the top 10 if you want to go for it I'll be more than happy to take your money um and so will a lot of other guys that do this a lot they will take it um starting from the top 10 for DraftKings does absolutely no good um now if you play NASCAR fantasy deal yeah you probably want to take some of those guys because you get points for stage finishes and strictly finishing positions and place differential makes no no difference um all right so if we're looking at the average starting spots and the top 15 and draftking points so where they start once again out of the top 15 or in optimal lineup is the top six this is the top 15 and draftking points one came from the top five one came from the top six everybody else was 11 on down same thing here so the averages we're looking at that's almost nine that's 12 of the 15 come from 11th starting spot or worse so once again do not worry about these guys starting in the top 10 um yeah I mean Christopher Bell starting in 27th is my number one rank this week Tyler reic is number two the Toyotas were were slow and I'm almost guessing that that was almost on purpose cuz they wanted to make sure that they could get all their cars together this is an absolute um Team oriented um or manufacturing um all the manufacturers are going to going to join up together um and I have one thought about that um I think your top end teams your hendrik are going to run together with the Chevys um the Toyotas 2311 and Joe Gibbs are going to run together the Fords are going to run together so the Pinsky and um front row Motorsports are going to run together there's about a group of 10 that kind of fall in this group don't fall in this group they've got some manufacturer Alliance but don't really have manufacturer Alliance it is the Rick wear racing cars it is the Spire cars it is it it's that group it's Ricky stenh House's car um potentially the hos guys because hos is pretty much going to fold up at the end of the year and those guys are getting all spread out um so maybe the hos I have a thought because what we've seen typically at these drafting style tracks um is well we'll just leave it on Denny um while I go while I go over this little thought process experiment I thought about at the gym and I didn't have a full time to look at it but in the past at these drafting tracks fuel mileage becomes a major consideration in how long you spend on Pit Road so these guys will slow down and run Full Throttle for three4 of the race half of the race let's say and it's this is what happened at dayona it happened at Talladega didn't really happen in Atlanta but it's it's been happening at these tracks because the less time you could spend on Pit Road for fuel the faster you can get back out and potentially make up spots what happens if these um not fully manufactured Alliance teams like I said the rqu the spires the hos and those guys what if they said let's just all get together let's Blow by all the guys that are going to have this weird funny fuel strategy and we just go run Full Throttle if they're running half throttle they running Full Throttle it's a 2 second 2 and 1 half second per lap difference it's it's it's a huge difference and the Joe Gibbs and 231 teams kind of hit on this at the D 500 last year or this early this year and then they wrecked themselves which was dumb they were setting themselves up to absolutely win the race if things had stayed green and they were able they were going to catch the lead pack the lead pack was still going to have to pit um or they were going to run out of fuel or they were going to have to say half throttle the Toyotas were going to blow by them what happens if these other teams say you know what let's just start from the get- go because the way the stages are working so what they're saying is if you run half throttle you can run 45 to 50 laps well stage one's 35 laps if you run Full Throttle you're right on that edge of getting to the end of the stage probably you probably can do it with the Drafting and you just have to share the the lead so stage one kind of is going to be thrown out anyways because these guys are just going to run pretty much Full Throttle for stage one the thing starts to change in stage two and stage three because it's 60 and 65 laps well even in half throttle you're going to get best 50 laps more like probably 45 laps well they're both everybody's going to have to pit at least once for fuel so what if the teams that are not fully aligned say you know what let's go Full Throttle if they gain two seconds a lap in front of that other pack in 10 laps they're going to be 20 seconds ahead yeah they're still going to have to pit for fuel and they might have to take a little bit more but 20 seconds on a pit stop you'll you'll come out in front of the other guys I think the spoiler for this weekend is going to be potentially there I mean other than the big one happening if this just stayed green and went green the entire way I still like the group in the back to say no you know what let these guys screw screw around with their fuel mileage and running half throttle Let's Go full board let's get 20 25 seconds ahead of them they're still going to have to pit we've got a pit we're going to have to take more fuel so it's going to take 8 seconds longer but they're 25 seconds ahead of them I I I don't understand the philosophy so I'm going to be curious to see if and I'm I'm just a guy that talks on the internet that watches NASCAR and bets on it I'm not as smart as these Engineers some of these groups are going to be like I mean all all it takes is four guys to to group up together maybe five and just pull away from a pack that's running half or 3/4 throttle I don't know it's a theory we'll see if it happens it's not a conspiracy theory it's just a theory um all right let's go to the driver by driver breakdown and take a look at some averages and who we might like to take and who we probably should not take Denny Hamlet is in play starting in 19th he also runs really well at Daytona all the Toyotas are going to stay together and be together um so I mean and this group could be a group that does what I'm kind of talking about and says you know what we're just going to leave everybody in the dust let them run half throttle and we're going to run it full and if that happens it forces the other teams to run Full Throttle it just does so I I'm all for it and I think one of these teams should absolutely do it so but Denny Hamlin is definitely in play starting in 19th we've got plenty of place differential if he can finish in the top five that works out very very well and once again we're not worried about price cuz there are plenty of guys that are cheap cheap cheap cheap cheap that perform on average better than Denny Hamlin um this this track is the great equalizer um it allows the smaller teams to have a shot at getting a great finish as long as they can avoid the big one brag kazlowski $110,000 starting in 12th H we're starting to get to that little bit of a uh I don't really like the play but I mean I might have a little bit of Brad not much though um 12 just really isn't the best spot even though we do see some guys that U make it from 11 to 20 you want to be a little bit further back you want to be close to that 19 where deny Hamlin is so I think deny Ham's kind of sitting in a Sweet Spot Brad's in play but don't love it either he runs really really well at these super Speedways the problem is he is also fairly aggressive and does like to um uh bump draft a little too hard sometimes and a little too aggressive sometimes it and then it ends up costing him and the guy in front so Ryan blay is definitely in play at 14th um he's got uh a win here at Daytona I mean if we look at these finishes I mean an average of 20.4 um what was let's see 21st 22 all right let's talk about Brian BL starting in 14th I mean there's some place differential here I could see playing a little bit of him um but I mean the the Pinsky Forge are really good they really stick together really well if they can avoid the big one it's going to be when you set some of these lineups you kind of want to build a couple of these lineups that are um team alliance-based so you can pull the Pinsky and um the 21 team or four that you can pull in and then you can do probably the front row guys but the front row guys are they're starting too far up they're not really doesn't play well so you can take six of the Ford guys that are starting 10th or worst which is not many um you might be able to find a couple Stewart hos guys that would do it but the Ford are going to stick together so you can build one there I think one of the better ones is the Toyota camp and running all if you can fit it I think you can all four Gibbs cars and the two um uh 2311 cars can you put can that will that actually play let's see let me pull up a DraftKings here oh it's going to make me log in never mind we'll skip that for now um yeah it's okay I'll do it on my phone real quick it's on there can you run a full um let's see we've got mascar the pi six is available now if you have pick six it is a really fun thing to play and I've done really really well all right so let's go Hamlin Let's Go Bubba Wallace let's go reic through X Jr Bell um yeah you cannot fit all the 2311 and those guys you have $5,200 left so but okay which one of these guys is starting too high I mean they're all they're all in play Let's Take Trux Jr out and then you can you can probably mess around with it but that I mean so that's kind of what I'm saying so you cannot run a full 2311 uh Joe Gibbs Racing lineup bad they probably did that on purpose though um but Ryan blay I mean he's kind of in play don't love it don't hate it I'll have some ownership in him starting in 14th there is a little bit of place differential Chas Elliot is absolutely just on the cusp and I really don't like it um even with the win at nine points I mean if you get an Eric Jones who's starting in 40th and finishes 10th you just you don't you don't make up enough of the difference so I mean he could still be in play so we can go there um maybe that's what I need to do for the next time when we get to talladas I'll kind of map it out a little bit for a guy that's starting in 40th if he finishes in 10th this is the amount of points he gets and somebody it's starting in 10th if they finish first I'll I'll see if I can pull up a chart for that for for Talladega or maybe even Atlanta um Atlanta kind of plays a little bit different because of the amount of laps that they run but um William Byron 9500 starting in seventh I mean he won the Daytona 500 earlier this year he's won a Daytona twice uh I mean I like him for NASCAR Fantasy Live I don't like it for DraftKings um he's starting too far up it just does doesn't play well um Joe Lano same thing um but I mean once again let's look at these average finishes 18.6 17.6 he does have a win in his 31 total starts um starting in third it's just it's too too high up even if they bleed some laps and finishing first you get two point points for Place differential doesn't carry enough K lson man you want to talk about somebody who just is not good at Speedway or draft drafting style tracks Kyle Larson just always seems to get burned um his 11th Place finish at the Daytona 500 might be really the only one that that might be his best finish on the Super Speedway I mean no top fives and four top 10 in his 20 total starts of Daytona um in the last so oh yeah so this line here is comparing the Daytona 500 the Coke 400 last year the coke 400 in 2022 and because Talladega only runs 188 laps I pulled DEA and it races very similar the spring of 24 and the fall of 23 they that's the averages for these that's that's what I pulled in that kind of gives you the latest information for the nextg eror car so uh bubble Wallace $9,000 starting in 18th definitely in play Bubble B understands and races drafting track really really well um decent place differential here I do not mind playing some bubble Wallace today he's got a 17.6 average finish for the five tracks we're looking at finished fifth at the Daytona 500 and he's got an average finish at 12th at Daytona he does better at Daytona than he does Talladega even though he does have that rain shortened win at Talladega but either way bubble boss is definitely in play along with that um that Toyota Camp um Chris busher the forge were really really fast the Henri cars were pretty fast F the Toyotas I almost think on purpose were a pick on the slower side um they're probably going to race pretty well um I think the forge are probably going to lead at least through stage one um and this whole thing gets turned upside down with the first caution um not stage break caution but if there's a caution at lap 20 everything gets changed because then all of a sudden if you can go 40 Laps on fuel you'll run 15 to the end of stage one you'll run 25 for stage two and that leaves you with 40 to get to the end of the stage and you can still almost run Full Throttle at that point so I I think the way this lays out is a little bit better than Daytona 500 because the stages were a little bit longer and they kind of need to save a little bit of fuel I think this ends up playing much more of a they're going to run a little bit more Full Throttle but if they don't one of these small teams needs to get together with another small team and just leave everybody sitting there and force them to run faster which changes everybody's strategy uh yeah the little guys's got a little bit of power at Daytona andal Chris busher third starting in 13th he's kind of right there with blay and um Brad K I mean the forge are going to be fast um busher and Brad K have a tendency to find each other and hook up with each other and they just don't leave each other um so and if they if they run together they're going to wre together if they run together and they do well they're going to win or finish well together if you've got Chris busher in the lineup I would highly recommend keeping Brad Kowski in some of those because they're not going to leave each other out the dry um and if anything Brad's going to push Chris to a win because busher needs the win to secure his spot in the playoffs he's in right now on points but I mean one mistake at Darlington next week and that could be in real issue even though busher ran really well at Darlington earlier this year so definitely keep an eye out for the the busher and kazlowski Duo uh Kyle Bush 8,800 I mean is the monkey falling off of this guy's back um potentially and he does run the fall race in Daytona a little bit better than the spring race and has a little better luck but if you've got any sort of bad luck going on Kyle bus is going to find it along with Austin Dylan and expect them to be probably pretty close together they're probably going to going to going to um partner up and kind of do what Brad and Brett kazlowski and uh busher are going to do I think Kyle and Austin will also do the same thing but that's another small team that could easily align themselves and change the dynamic of this race by getting together with a with a Spire um and those five cards running together so definitely keep that in mind but starting in 11th I don't love it for DraftKings um and a lot of these things I'm talking about is number one I also love to watch the race and the strategy behind the race and those types of things and some of it's for DraftKings I don't have a whole lot of interest in Kyle bus starting 11th especially since he we think he may have gotten rid of the bad luck but if it's going to show up it's going to show up in daytime Tyler definitely in play starting in 25th and he has been running super Speedways recently much better um Daytona has not been his best friend at a 25.3 average finish over 10 starts but if we pull in a little bit of the dega and what what has he done for me recently um because a lot of this was when he was with RCR but some of this is with um 2311 and since he's gotten to 2311 he's done much better 14.8 average finish starting 25th lots of place differential and if he's with the Toyotas and they don't screw up he's going to end up having a decent day so definitely like the Tyler four plays differential now remember he's probably going to be pretty heavily owned uh Martin TRX Jr who has never won on a drafting style track in the cup series he has won a couple Infinity races um but that was back oh gosh almost 20 years ago um but Martin chook Jr has had some of the worst luck out there when it comes to Super Speedways probably right there with Kyle Larson um but you know the Toyotas stick together and they don't screw it up Martin TRS Jr definitely is in play starting in 17th uh Christopher Bell I mean 27th I mean that he's going to be very heavily owned um he finished third at the Daytona 500 earlier this year here like I said the toyos are going to team up together they're going to be together they're going to keep each other together um and as long as they don't screw it up they probably should be finishing pretty well so I really like the Christopher Bell play he's going to come from middle towards the back to the front uh Ross Chastain same thing he does not it it's either Checkers or record with Ross so a little bit of a riskier play um and he is definitely in a spot where he needs points and he needs a good finish and if the win is in sight he's going to go after it um very aggressive and that has cost him at at drafting tracks in the past now it's won him races at drafting tracks before Taladega but Daytona has been a little bit rough but starting 24th plenty of place differential definitely something to be um interested in Alex Bowman um runs super Speedways extremely well drafting tracks really well um 11.2 average finish for the five races we're comparing to starting in 21st definitely some place differential Alex Bowman is in play for DraftKings today and I definitely don't mind taking him now I probably also think that he'll get a decent amount of ownership um yeah I mean we're we're picking from realistically 28 guys um they're two guys in the back that yeah I mean if we get some really big ones they might come up and be be in play but there there're a couple teams that I just number one they're not going to be able to hold the draft because their pick crews are just not fast enough um we'll get to them in a second but Alex bman 21st he's definitely in play um I don't mind the Alex Bowman play Ricky stos Jr really really in play um I mean he's got the Daytona 5001 from last year he's 22.8 average finish um at the five race we're comparing to and a 19.6 average finish at Daytona with two wins um I definitely like the Ricky to now Junior play he's going to be very heavily owned so just keep that in mind um but he I I will still have 30 35% ownership in Ricky so I definitely like the Ricky St junr play with a 12.88 average finish starting in 35th Michael Mell alcate coverage did the same thing at the Daytona 500 and was on the outside pole and he did the same thing in Atlanta or Talladega um they're fast no doubt about it but then we look five races comparison 26.8 average finished he finished 36 the Daytona 500 after starting outside pole so um 21.0 average finish at Daytona with one win yeah but I don't like it from the poll um so yeah no interest in Michael mandala starting from the poll could he win sure absolutely anybody in this group good way um and yeah that could happen but there are a couple guys that I go no you you you don't have the pick crew or the equipment to to hang um Tai Gibbs $7,600 starting in 26 absolutely in play these Toyotas are all starting really close to each other they are all going to team up together and they've got a strategy they've got a strategy for why they are starting where they are um I have a sneaky suspicion that that Toyotas are going to be they're going to have a different strategy than everybody else and it's going to surprise some people and I think they've got multiple strategies so when they show their first strategy everybody's like oh we know what they're going to do and they're going to do something different this is going to be a lot of cat and mouse and type of situations um and these strategies are going to be really interesting that's why I really do not like anybody starting the top 10 I mean Austin Center's got a win and Daytona 500 win in fact um but he's starting in eighth starting too far up there's just not enough place differential here for an Austin centrik could they win could they finish out pretty well sure um but I just don't know if I like it um Austin Dylan starting in 16 I mean he's in play um he's got two wins at Daytona um one of them came in the fall of 2022 he's got to have a another win cuz as you see he now has the X oh yeah I forgot to mention that Denny Hamlin uh lost his he kept the win almost the same thing as Austin D so strange how this a week later um Austin Dylan loses the eligibility for playoffs kept the win from Richmond Denny Hamlin lost the eligibility for one of the three races that he'd won from Bristol because they Reus did something to the engine that they weren't supposed to do after the race and self-reported themselves Toyota did this sure Denny's just in love with Toyota at this point but they took the race wi away they kept him as the winner took all the benefits from it if that had been his only win he would not be have the win as an eligibility to get in the playoffs at this point but he probably has enough points either way doesn't really matter he lost 10 points um in the playoffs he could easily get that back today um but Austin Dylan needs the win to get into the playoffs and he needs to do without wrecking anybody so I mean starting in 16th he's in play don't love it don't hate it um Chase Brisco great qualifying lap starting in six starting too far up though no real interest here uh Eric Jones starting in 40th ton of place differential and I've talked about him a couple of times I mean go out and get a 12th Place finish from 40th you're going to be in the optimal lineup it's just the way these things work he's going to be 50% owned I but there's a risk he goes out 20 laps to go he's in the big one and there's not a whole lot of people that have been knocked out and he finishes 38th he's worth nothing um so there there is that risk this is not just a put it in every line up set it and forget it type thing because I've seen the guy that starts in 40th do one of two things either they get the most points in DraftKings or they burn 60 70% of all lineups so be bu or beware he's going to be heavily owned I don't mind fading off of him also want to make sure I've got some ownership like I said I'll probably be I don't think I'll be 50% I think I'll probably be 35% um so I mean Eric Jones has a win at dayona so definitely somebody to kind of keep in mind and they could play spoiler I mean there are a couple Toyotas back here he he can play with um so I'm not worried about him getting up front I'm worried about the big one happening and then finishing 38th and not getting any points but that'll burn a lot of other people so be careful by every on that one Noah greggson I mean I know it's only three starts out of these five races but a 5.7 average finish he's got the highest DraftKings average but he's starting a little bit further up than where he normally does um I don't know why I've got a he definitely raced a Daytona 500 all right there's my screw up for the week I always find one it's always kind of like a where where did I where did I mess something up but yeah where did he finish I I don't worry about it um but four star on um at Daytona with a 17.3 average finish the problem is he's starting 15th I I mean no gson could easily win I'll have let's say 5 to 10% ownership of Noah Gregson I'm not going to be an allout Fate on him but I did think it was quite interesting that he's got a 5.7 average finish I mean he's finished really really well at these draft High drafting tracks um in the cup series uh Todd Gillan I mean starting outside his his teammate so front row motor is definitely fast um the problem is I don't like it for DraftKings so I don't have a whole lot of interest um it will definitely shake the playoffs up if Todd Gillan goes out and gets that win same thing for Michael mcdal he goes out and gets this win and the playoff picture just gets absolutely scrambled um Daniel Suarez now I mean he does have the win Atlanta by what 0.002 or something three um starting in 22nd I mean yeah I don't I don't mind having a little bit of ownership in Daniel Suarez um but this is not Atlanta this this track is is a beast it's different um and it's different than Talladega also but it's a drafting track it's anybody's shot there's some place differential here I'll have some ownership in Daniel uh SVG um he definitely kind of struggled last night in and I don't think it was his fault I think there was a a setup issue that they were trying to chase at the Infinity race last night um he just did not have a good handling car and that's the problem is we don't have practice here so it's go out run a lap get a fast time start where you are and then you'll have to fix it throughout the race now starting in 32 he's going to take his time he's going to be methodical he's going to learn how to race this car um he did I mean he finished 28th at the race he has not raced Daytona in the cup series he did race the Talladega race I I don't mind having some ownership in SVG um in fact he probably gets a little bit under owned um starting in 32nd but I mean he's not going to be super under owned he's going to be probably 15 18 20% but he's going to be less owned than a couple of these other guys that are starting in the 30s Josh Barry good qualifying run buddy but I have no interest in fifth place Josh Barry cor Joyce starting in 34th I mean now this is a solid pick he's 13.4 average on these five races that we're comparing to daa and Daytona he finished fourth at the Daytona 500 he has a 17th Place average finish out of 15 total starts 10 times he's finished in the top 10 and he typically is starting back here gor The Joy definitely is somebody to keep an eye on now and he needs to have a good finish he's got to have a good finish to try to secure himself a ride for next year um he's a free agent what that looks like I'm not sure but he if he ends up having a good finish or even winning um making the playoffs that's going to be a pretty big feather in his cap so he's going to be looking for a great finish now does he force the issue too much possibly uh Ryan priest starting fourth good job qualifying buddy but I don't have any interest I mean he does have a 19 point three average finish so if he'd been starting further the back he would definitely be somebody I would be interested in but starting in fourth I don't have a whole lot of interest Carson Oar starting in 37th I mean he's starting back there with Cory Le Joy so he he definitely will have a partner in crime to to team up with and that's what I'm saying you get a COR Joy a Carson josar um an Eric Jones and a couple these other guys all partnered up you get a five or six card tandem together that are true to just going full out and these other groups are like nope we're going to just chill out back here and go half throttle to save our fuel there's no reason to at this race that the stages are lined up enough that it's a one it's a no stop in the first stage one stop in stage two and one stop in stage three so you can run Full Throttle for for both of them um it'ss a little dicey at at at 35 for stage one but after that all bets are off um Zay Smith right there too starting in 30th he's part of that Spire group I I love my strategy um I don't know if they'll they'll run it but I would I would love to see it it because it takes the other strategy out of play um because other guys just have to have to go do it tell man I think McDonald is sneaky tonight I like to play I Remember Hamlin winning day Tona from the um hi Matt how are you um okay I've got more than enough evidence to show that the P sitter might make the close to the optimal lineup once every 20 races on a drafting track it's risky I get it um I I yeah okay I mean I I love you man but no please don't do that pleas please show show me where what would have I mean we would have to not have the big one we would have to have little to no fall off tonight and there's just too much at risk for there not to be Calamity um these guys are going to put their cars in spots that they shouldn't be putting them and leading on this package doesn't work well so he can't make it on fuel modage if you're the leader and the leader the whole time you you can't do it there's too much there's too much fuel mileage that ends up happening I I I get you I know you love to find the sneaky pick um I mean take your boy Elliott I mean he's starting in 10th that's probably going to be slightly overlooked um because everybody's going to Target the back so if you're looking for sneaky go go with go with your boy Elliott starting in 10th at least you got some place differential points to gain um but yeah I mean Chase Elliott starting in 10th will get if he makes it up to second that's nine points a place differential because all right let let's run the numbers let's do it all right let me pull this up all right go a cup go here all right all right so you get 45 points for first place I mean let let realistically Matt how many laps do we honestly think Michael McDow will lead cuz we look at Daytona 500 which is an extra 40 laps all right we had 45 laps led by Joey lagano in that race so let let's say he leads 45 lap let's 40 is easier because it works out that's 10 points of laps Leed because you get a quarter point per and he finishes first to first so 45 that's 55 points now we look at fast laps and they're spread out all over the place because the guy in 31st in the middle of the draft is going to be faster than the leader so he's going to get let's be let's be really generous and say 10 at 045 so that's 4 and A2 points so we're at 55 4 and2 Points takes you to 592 for Michael McDow I mean I mean we start to look at this and that's here I'll screw this all up let's go so 59 A5 I mean that puts him in the optimal lineup but damn that's risky um where you can take somebody like a Chase Elliot who's going to get nine points in place differential if he finishes in second so second gets you 42 n points a place differential gets you to 51 then if you lead half 20 20 laps get you five what was at 42 51 half Five Points 56 and a couple of fast laps you're you're right there with taking a very very risky Michael McDow so I think maybe the sneakier play that might be a little bit better would be to take Elliott over that that's why nobody running from the top 10 makes sense I get you want to be sneaky and that would be sneaky but it's it's beyond risky in my opinion but you've won a lot too so I I I I sometimes really like your sneaky picks not sure I like that one though Matt but hey that's the great thing about this we get to all run different things and then we get to compare notes later um and Matt I can't believe you're not watching college football right now I know it's not an NFL but I know you're a big football fan John Hunter Nema check $5,700 starting 31st average finish of 20th I mean in sample size is small it's only two races um but if we look at his total Daytona he's got an eighth place average finish at Daytona um and he's got his partner in crime with um Eric Jones starting in the back I'm telling you Eric Jones uh or a a a legacy group Spire group uh um Ricky Den house group and AR uh Rick rare racing group could really play spoiler in this thing if they if they run their strategy different than everybody else which everybody's thinking everybody's going to go half throttle yeah more I talk about this more I kind of talk myself out of it but um Austin Hill uh here's another Richard Childers racing guy who's got a I mean he's old sample size a small he finished 14th at Talladega um I mean he finished 14th in the I think it was the fall race last year can't remember exactly but Austin Hill in the Xfinity series is typically really really good and he was in a bad spot yesterday because they made some adjustments and he had to go to the back to start and then ended up getting taken out early so that is a risk about starting in the back is if the big one happens you have a chance of running into it instead of being in front of it so I get it just the points just don't make any sense Justin Haley who's got a win a Daytona who's got a 23.2 average finish for the five races we're comparing to 18.9 average finish at Daytona starting in 36 and definitely could playo spoiler um I Justin Hy runs really really well he does really well at these drafting tracks I love some Justin there's a there's ton of guys back here to take and everybody ends up getting you know oh there's only a handful of guys that you could take for Place different now there's 20 guys 18 guys realistically to take um I mean here's one take out Harrison Burton starting in 20th he just is too aggressive and he just has the worst luck on drafting tracks so I'll I'll I'll stay away from Harrison Burton um Daniel Henrich at $5,300 stunning in 28th I don't mind it he's got a 17th Place average finish for the five races we're comparing to and at Daytona he's got a 21.2 average finish okay and I think hrich might potenti be a little bit under own the ownership's going to be very spread out today um and honestly I expect I mean if you want to be sneaky Matt I get it because you're going to get somebody that's going to be 5% owned um it's just really risky um Cody weer $5,100 starting in 33rd 15th Place average finish out of the five races we're comparing to and 21st Place average finish at Daytona starting in 33rd some saying I mean yeah at $5,100 that's why I'm saying you you definitely do not have to spend all of your salary cap today um Parker rat's laugh um now the beard Motorsports guys bring and I know that's not the sponsor he's I couldn't find a good picture to insert quickly enough so um the beard motor guys or the beard Motorsports group brings really really C this the car that Bren and gone used to run when Bren and gone would come race two or four races out of the year he race a super speed blaz for Beard and he would get top five finishes almost every time they do one thing and they do one thing really well they build Super Speedway cars um you know the part that always kind of hurt them was they didn't have the pit crew to go along with it so they were a little slower on their pit stops but um I I don't I'm not a complete fade on Parker but makes me a little nervous just just saying he he is not a burning gone not yet at least he's too young uh BJ McLoud oh I got to love some BJ McLoud coming back to the cup series starting in 38th look at this 23rd Place average finish for the five races we're comparing to at Daytona a 22.4 average finish somebody who knows how to race in the draft how to race cleanly in the draft and be there at the end of these races it is BJ mlau I like some BJ McLoud um he no good anywhere else except for super Speedways but uh and the return of Joey gase we haven't seen Joey in a while welcome back to the cup series Mr gase in fact you don't have any of these five races but you do have seven starts at Daytona with a 26.3 average finish and he's Racing for the in team um I just they're that we think the beard guys don't have a pick crew the 44 te definitely does not have a pick crew that's going to be worth anything this would be like me and Matt going out to change tires maybe a little bit better but um yeah I think that's going to be the problem with Joey gase is he's going to end up losing the draft whenever these pit stops happen unless there are enough pit stops to where we're not doing it under green flag and I don't think that's realistic either because you you're probably going to be able to take a nap in the middle of stage three they're going to line up sing file and run or they're going to run too wide which is almost like single file cuz these cars handle really well and these guys are professionals and they're they're not going to jockey too much for position so now it gets really hard to pass once you get down to 10 laps to go it's not like it used to be where you could get huge drafts and runs the arrow block is something that can happen all right so who do I really like um and who do I think also could be probably very highly owned Christoper Bell Tyler reck Eric Jones Ricky stos Jr all will probably be fairly significantly owned I also think Denny Hamlin Cory lejoy Alex Bowman Ross Chastain Carson josar Justin Haley all probably will be decently owned uh if you want to play Matt's Game and go kind of risky I mean maybe go for a William Byron maybe go for a um Chase Elliott um Brad kazlowski probably won't be superly highly owned and could be very competitive um and Matt I I like your opinions and all and I please don't take my com Dow please um I'll put a $5 bet you take Michael mdow and I get Alex Bowman I bet you I end up getting more draftking points $5 bet I'll VMO it to you if I lose are you still there if he gets if send me a message um we'll make a we'll make a friendly $ wager on I I get Alex Bowman and you take Michael mdow I'm not even taking somebody from the way back in the back I'm taking middle of the road middle of the pack 21st starting spot you take first let me see if I beat you and draft King points watch Al blow up or something but either way all right that is everything we are an hour into the broadcast if you got any thoughts questions concerns whatever hit me up in the chat let me know who do you think is the winner who do you think is the best DraftKings play for the day let's take home some money tonight let's have a great race let's have a lot of fun this is a really kind of fun race to watch uh because you're always on the edge of the seat waiting for that big one to happen and it typically does I can only think of like one or two times Mark Martin won it uh I Talladega green flag the entire way this is before they had stage breaks literally from the drop of the flag green flag start to finish 188 laps fastest race ever performed done by Mark Martin yeah pretty cool um so yeah make sure you hit that like And subscribe button I'm trying to get to that 100 person subscriber so would love some help getting there and uh make sure you hit the like button good luck this weekend uh let's see we are at Darlington next next week it is a later in the afternoon evening not at this point uh let's see face key schedule time is the race I think it's 6 that's typically what time um it is let's see Darlington 6 o' so more than likely well hold on what time is the exfinity race Infinity at Darlington is at 330 yeah we still do a Saturday night um breakdown um do you guys like the Saturday night or the Sunday morning better let me know in the chat um yeah let's plan on 10:00 Saturday night of next week is when I plan on it I will post something in the community and uh good luck go Matt I hope your pick does really really well um I'll be interested to see how that turns out I'm choking with you I we we pick on each other pretty well but uh either way good luck this weekend see you next weekend let me know if you take home any big prizes this weekend have a great one thanks bye a good deep breath get ready to roll here only about one thing tonight in the W so got to be around the end to do that ready roll tonight boys some don't get me any more fired up than I already am all the way to the Checker you're fine nobody's got to run check baby hell yeah you there J thanks man good job day great work my man great work keep putting yourself in position and we win our share right we got one back today brother good job great job guys excellent work my man excellent work thank you man that's awesome set out with a goal we got it here bud thank you very much really proud of you man drove your butt off tonight we had to fast car here bud probably killed our deal there just feel like I gave one away yeah boys way to rebound great job great job bud really good job appreciate you hanging in there with us all weekend what a weekend good job thank [Music] you e