WRs you MUST TARGET in Fantasy Football Drafts (w/ Matt Harmon)

Wide Receivers with Matt Harmon! on today's show we're going to discuss roughly 20 of the most polarizing wide receivers for Fantasy this season be sure to stay tuned to the end of the show as Matt will reveal two guys he thinks are extremely underrated and two white outs he thinks are overrated the goal of this show is to combine player valuation alongside our analysis of the situation I really urge people to take both of these factors into consideration I'm sure Matt will tell you just because a player is very good doesn't mean he will be a fantasy star and vice versa but I think we can give you that Team level context you need it to make really good decisions here start with Drake London now Drake London some people have Drake London said and by some people I mean me that if Drake London had been drafted by the Rams or the Lions or someone else he would be a household name by now he got drafted into the stone worst situation possible made even worse by Arthur Smith last season Matt what say you about Drake London now as he enters a completely different part of his career where he's going to have an actual reasonable quarterback and reable reasonable scheme yeah I'm generally with you that I think Drake London is a underrated NFL receiver that if he was pretty much on I don't want to say any other team but almost any other team any other situation he would be higher regarded as a player I think a good before kind of expanding on Drake London I do just want to talk about sort of League wide where the wide receiver position is right now because there are so many many good wide outs in the league uh I have really kind of I would say upped my standards about just how we categorize wide receivers so um you know Evan we were talking about before the show I was just on Robert Ma's podcast a couple of weeks ago and talk about sort of like the way I view NFL tiers right and so I think there there are you know you can tier out the entire league or whatever but I would say that the top receivers in the league fit into like three tiers is there's an elite group at the very top that that should be like a small select handful you know it's your Justin Jefferson's Tyreek kills I think there's about six to seven of those players in the league I think there's a wide swath of tier 2 receivers that aren't Elite but they're true Superstars at the position they're real deal differenc makers as your number one receivers then I think there's a third tier where this is again a pretty big tier but it's guys like Michael Pitman that might be that can function as a team's number one receiver but maybe is would be best as like a two I think Damonte Smith is in this group where he is a second wide receiver but um he hasn't quite I think graduated to that Superstar level again those are just some rough examples but I say that to say about Drake London that I definitely think by the end of the year he could be regarded as a tier 2 receiver in the league um I think talent wise he already sort of checks those boxes I've always been a big fan of his route running and his separation you know he's a guy that's gone over 70% success rate vers man coverage in both of his first two seasons general rule with reception perception if you're an outside wide receiver and you beat man coverage and press coverage over 70% like we're interested in those players just a quick and dirty way to approach the process um I will say with London specifically the things I'm most excited about yeah it's an upgrading quarterback play it's definitely an upgrading ecosystem I'm really interested in just how he ends up getting deployed in this new Atlanta Falcons offense because but there's a lot of reasons we can be upset about what's happened in Atlanta the last couple of years I think the one thing that's been pretty rough for Drake London is that he has exclusively been an ex receiver he's taken 80 5% and 82.4% of his snaps sampled for reception perception his first two seasons on the line of scrimmage that's some pretty static deployment if you look at the way the Rams have deployed their top receivers whether it's PUK and AA last year obviously Cooper cup I don't think that Drake London's going to be necessarily a big slot receiver but I think he's going to get some more of those reps that will definitely lead to more efficient targets targets over the middle of the field uh I did a whole breakdown on YouTube kind of comparing his role with pukan nakua and sort of their route trees I think that lines up pretty well so it does look like all systems go for Drake London he's definitely going very high in drafts and in baseball drafts and everything like that but I do think he has the talent and the ecosystem to potentially deliver on that uh asking price and Matt of course mentions the ram system because Zack Robinson uh the new Falcons offensive coin comes from the ram system um if you were to I mean I don't know if people are out here watching much much Falcons over the last two seasons the the uh deployment of Drake London has been so uninspiring if there was a player that you could maybe make a comparison to for Drake London to become would would there be another player in the league that you would make that comparison to I mean would it be puka AA I think that he and again I know I just said Michael pitman's like a tier three receiver but I think he can be sort of deployed in that type of way where he's like Michael pitman's a big wide receiver just like Drake London but he's deployed off the line of scrimmage where they have you know Alec Pearson Maybe ad Mitchell running those vertical X receiver routes which I think leads him up to high efficiency layup targets for the quarterback I think that's a big part of it but and look if you look at like his slant route success rate curl route success rate dig route success rate he can do those things Ken Drake London he can run that Michael Pitman type route tree but you're right to bring up that pukan AA also ran that route tree last year but where I think that London has really like true number one Superstar receiver potential whereas I I I'm not all the way there with Michael Pitman and I think puka is probably a tier two receiver at this point after what he did as a rookie but the out route success rate and the corner route success rate for Drake London like those big vertical outbreaking routes I think that's also a big part of this offense and that's where he can kind of take that to another level I I want to be clear that the home League Market is not going to be as thirsty for Drake London as the best ball Market is early ADP on Drake London is around 24 overall Evan has Drake London at 20th overall in his top 150 depending on how the draft shakes out though like I I'm not going to reach for Drake London where we H where he comes out in projection for us which is like 12th 13th 14th overall but when he gets there at the two3 turn you know I I think Drake London assuming you want to go wide receiver there is certainly strong let's go to a rookie people are Marvin Harrison Jr flored Matt they are floored that people are taking Marvin Harrison Jr at the onew turn Marvin Harrison Junior home League ADP is 16th overall this might be the highest we've ever seen a rookie wide receiver go Jamar Chase did not go nearly this High Julio Jones did not go this High when he was a rookie Marvin Harrison you will need to spend a round two pick even in home leagues to get Marvin Harrison Jr is that asking too much of a rookie Matt or is Marvin Harrison this generational of a prospect well look I mean generational is kind of like the dumbest word in scouting at this point because we seem to have two or three generational prospects like every few years which is inherently not generational but a generation is supposed to be like 75 years right yeah we we should only be using it once in a lifetime which we we clearly do not do at this point anymore but um for for Harrison specifically it it is asking a lot of a rookie um I do understand and like honestly when I just I I'm kind of putting my rankings together I ended up sort of getting into that range with Marvin Harrison where I didn't I didn't think I would get there before before I talk about that just focus focusing on him as a player he was my number one ranked receiver in this class um to me though I viewed it as a a tier of three guys at the top I when I look at like my stacked Prospect rankings which are up on reception perception.com all three of these guys in the top three this year Marvin Harrison Roma dun Malik Neighbors in that order for me I viewed all those guys as tier one prospects and guys that in almost any other year would be number one receivers in the class so like if somebody liked Malik neighbors better than Marvin Harrison to me I think that was a totally justifiable position but the reason I ended up getting to Harrison as my top receiver is one he's just good at everything um he's a great ball winner he's better at after the catch and I think people give him credit for and as a separator 87th percentile success rate vers press 83rd percentile success rate vers man coverage which playing it the college data is a little diff different with RP because of the levels of competition everything like that but if you're a big deal number one a big program and you're over those numbers those are incredibly uh encouraging he was also double covered at the highest rate I've ever charted for a power five uh receiver which is not surprising and he still had a 70% success rate when doubled so like he is as legit an alpha Prospect as we've seen come into the league he's he's my number one of all the last four classes combined so really loved him as a player and then when you just look at the situation I think the Cardinals offense was really welld designed last year I think they had a lot of good ideas um they just didn't have a lot of great players uh and when I look at kind of the top of my third tier of wide receivers which for me is auk it's Marvin Harrison it's Devonte Adams it's Drake London it's Mike Evans it's Nico Collins I like kind of start to weigh Harrison against Adams and London and Evans and Collins I think there are look again those names I just threw out there were very good NFL receivers I think Marvin Harrison's going to be a very good NFL receiver obviously that's a projection but with Adams there's quarterback questions I feel pretty confident in where we're at with Kyler Murray uh with Drake London we just talked about you know it's another sort of we haven't fully seen it yet with Mike Evans there's ecosystem risk because Dave Canalis is gone with Nico Collins there's Target competition risks uh because of all these other players there as much as I I'm a huge niiko Collin fan I've been talking about him for for years so with Harrison he I don't think he has Target competition risk necessarily at least to the degree of some of those players I don't think he has quarterback risks or ecosystem risks so the profile is actually pretty clean when you look at it from a situation perspective and because I'm high on him enough as a prospect I I can end up getting there in terms of Marvin Harrison as a top 10 ranked receiver this year I like how you bring up a little bit of hard data on how often he was double covered because number one you know just listening to you over the years Matt um you talk about in the in the NFL like players are double covered a lot less than is kind of you know expected or or you know speculated number one and number two because during the Ohio State State games like the the the broadcast would often highlight him being double covered um and he should see a lot less of that in the NFL what the the com the comparison that I I I like for Marvin Harrison in his rookie season is that 2020 season that DeAndre Hopkins had with Kyler Murray where he had 115 catches and over 1400 yards I mean I don't think it is crazy it's it's at the top of Marvin Harrison's range of potential out comes but I don't think it's crazy for him to have 1,200 1300 yards right away as a rookie the situation it's going to be a shootout offense Kyler Murray is really good at throwing the ball outside the numbers and you've got the you know the the the winning statistics against man coverage that Marvin Harrison did that put put up at Ohio State while being you know while facing double coverage at that extreme rate yeah uh you know if I wasn't so high on Cardinals offense I would be more scared about the Marvin Harr situation right we've seen really good rookies come in to this league and have 900 yards and eight touchdowns that's not enough for where Marvin Harrison is going he needs to blow the doors off but because he's in this Arizona situation the landing spot was literally perfect I thought then I am okay with Marvin Harrison there in round two Evan has Mar Marvin Harrison 15th overall and his top 150 current ADP is around 17 overall and for what it's worth which it can be worth something apparently Marvin Harrison has looked unbelievable so far in Camp all right Chris Olave let's get to the third one on the list here Chris alve I kind of think of Chris alve similarly to Drake London in that it just hasn't clicked because the situation has not been ideal not as bad as Drake London situation but not ideal I could not believe the way they used Chris last year so deep down the field way too high of an a DOT to me for Chris skill set I am not out here charting though like Matt Harmon is so Matt what do you think about Chris chances this year of having a true breakout Alpha year yeah I I feel pretty good about it uh I will say to back up your point about how he was used as a rookie uh Chris olve ran a slant route on just 7% of his routes charted for reception perception 7.4% that is the lowest of any player I've charted since 2014 any NFL player it jumped up to a whopping 13.4% last year so not a big uh jump there this is not a guy that's really getting has really not gotten any layup targets since he has been a new member of the New Orleans Saints offense which look I Derek Carr is still the quarterback Dennis Allen is still the head coach it's not as if there's a great Vibe around New Orleans right now but it is at least it should be a pretty significant offensive turnover uh with Gary kubak as the new offensive coordinator that P carmichel has been the offensive coordinator since Shawn pyton was hired by the New Orleans Saints like the Saints have not had any new ideas on offense in the last 20 years um you know almost a generation in of itself uh which is which is pretty wild so this should be a pretty carmichel was like the ultimate crony yes yeah and and even I think Doug Marrone was on that coaching staff last year like who was also with the 2006 New Orleans Saints staff that was originally hired there again not a lot of new ideas uh so there should be some significant turnover here from the way they design offense which should be good for Chris ol and I think Rasheed jahed who's a player I'm pretty high on but with olve he's definitely a guy that you look at his first two years in in reception perception incredibly consistent numbers 75.8% success rate versus man in year 1 76.3% in year two that's very similar 81.2 in year one against Zone 81.5 in year two the press number is within 04 percentage points of each other which these are all good numbers um I would say he hasn't quite taken that individual leap to super stardom yet um but I think that's definitely a thing that he could do this year so there are part of his game where I think he could get a little bit better in contested situations even if that might never end up being his his calling card as a player he's more of a separator I think he's sort of like a Stefon Diggs light type of player but Diggs is a guy who took his game to another level when he became a better Ball winner both in Minnesota and then obviously in Buffalo so again I think Al is kind of hanging out right now in that upper tier three of receivers if he takes his game to the tier 2 level in the league he can definitely have that breakup but we are also counting on some situational factors to help him do that with a new play caller in New Orleans Clint kubak was with Kyle Shanahan last year in San Francisco as the passing game coordinator that tree has always been good about getting receivers layup routes yeah you know Shawn McVey also comes from that tree and we've seen Robert Woods and Cooper cup and puka akua all Excel do you think that Chris olve is the type of receiver that can Excel on those individual routes because I think the Saints are going to need to get him the ball that way because they might have a bottom five offensive line I mean Nick Underhill texted me the other day Derek Carr had 14 dropbacks in a certain practice and he was sacked seven times like they need to get him easier need need to get him the ball on higher percentage routs Yeah it's really a rough situation there last year on it was one of my least favorite offenses to watch to start the year because they're having these receivers all run these deep routes and then the only the only option for Derek Carr who's already like addicted to checking down is Alvin chra in the flat I mean it's like if you're trying to quit smoking and you just start with a pack of sigs on your nightstand every day you're you're not going to be able to quit Derek Carr is not able to quit that check down addiction that he has there because of how that offense is designed but if they're if we increase Chrystal LA's flat route percentage his slant route percentage his curl route percentage all of which are some of his best routes in reception perception same with Rashid ched another guy that we can get running on some of these routes as well I I think the target numbers are definitely going to go up he's certainly a player that can thrive in that role so the round two of fantasy is so flat right and so we have it very very close but in our top 300 rankings on ET we actually have the running backs Squan Anan JT Kiren ahead of Ave right there Evan is higher on Ave has Ave up at 13 overall current home League ADP on Ave is 24 overall structurally though you know when you're deciding in round two between some of these wide receivers like a or Marvin Harrison or some of these running backs like Gibbs Taylor Barkley aan Kiren Etc to me it's structural how much do you think the mid-round wide receivers will drop in your league and that would help me make the decision there but I do take alive a ton in baseball and think he's gonna have a really really strong year uh quickly Matt you mentioned Rasheed Rashid Shaheed Shahed I think the big question for everyone on rashed Shahed is can he earn more than four to five targets per game can he be more than a lid lifter can he run routes that are closer to the line of scrimmage because I think where he goes in baseball you probably need that now in redraft Evan and I talked about him on the sleeper show the other day and he's going Mega late in home leagues but when he goes around 100 overall I think you're gonna need more than four four and a half targets per game so Matt what do you think about shahid's chances of actually earning more yeah I think he's a real deal receiver I don't think he's just a lid lifter I mean certainly he does that um he probably needs to get better on outbreaking routes specifically against Zone coverage to be you know a guy that consistently earns 110 plus targets but obviously where he's going right now you don't necessarily need him to be that type of player the thing that's most encouraging for me is his in-breaking route success rates are all really high Slants and curls and and dig routes which should be you know working the middle of the field on some of these full speed motion or pre- snap motion plays in this particular offense he should be one of the central figures that we're looking to get free on those plays but also the 74th percentile success rate vers press on 18.5% of his routes charted that's a pretty good number that leads me to think he can be a two receiver set player the guy that can work as a flanker and then maybe kick inside in in 11 personnel and three receiver sets so overall yeah I I really like him as a player and I think he can be more than just like a gadget or lid lifting receiver and that Shanahan tree doesn't necessarily have all the time the the guys who only run nine routes or run clear out routes I mean they're trying to get the ball to all the guys in the offense and um they don't really have very many guys that they are going to want to get the ball the ball to in this offense Rashid Shahed is going to need to be one of those guys and we already know that he's a he's good with the ball in his hands because he's such a good Return Man I mean he's been one of the best kickoff and punt returners in the league over the last two seasons for sure all right Cooper Kupp let's get into an older receiver here I think a big question for this season Matt is is Cooper cup cooked or can he rebound now it was not that long ago that Cooper cup literally had the best wide receiver season of all time like literally the best wide receiver season of all time then last year he's hurt he's hurt a bunch he seems to be playing nicked up I know when you watch the tape and break this down it's hard when guys are hurt right because you don't know are they are they not winning in their routes because they're hurt or they not winning in their routes because they're toast what do you think about Cooper cup making a comeback here at his Advanced age yeah and I would also say this too that the thing I have learned to be the least confident in using any receiver data but C even just even reception perception data trying to forecast is age Cliffs because there is just not a rule for how players decline like just three examples here off the top is one sometimes there are guys like Dez Bryant where they take from 20 I think it was 2016 to 2017 like their success rate versus Man coverage numbers dropped from like 20% and Dez Bryant really after getting cut by the Cowboys never resurfaces it took to like November for him to sign so sometimes guys just go like that from one year to another other players have like a a steady sort of down tick when and sometimes those guys are Allan Robinson right where he Trends down a little bit with the Bears and then you see him in LA with the Rams and he just absolutely cannot play anymore at all and and so you can kind of like oh and I remember coming on this show and other shows being like well yeah he he had some success rate drops in his final year with Chicago but it was only like five or 6% it's really not that big of a deal and then again you see him in LA and it's just it's over with and then there ALS also examples like Keenan Allen and I know we're gonna talk about Keenan Allen later in the show um where he has that five to six percentage Point drop and you raise the alarm bells on it but he can still go out and be a functional NFL receiver if he just continues to hold at that not his Peak but like declined level and so again that's why age Cliffs are just really tough because it's a case-by case basis and it's a complete known really until you see them in the next season and what that role might be for them as well that's important with Cooper cup because his success rate versus Man coverage number is definitely down in 2023 from where he was in 21 and 22 there's no getting around that he drops from 70.6% in 2022 to 65.2% however his success rate versus Zone coverage number is still really good 83.3% which is which is lower than his as you mentioned Adam historic 2021 season where he has the second highest success rate versus Zone coverage in reception perception history you know hundreds of players since 2014 sampled here so he's still held in one regard even if there was a slight decline in another um I I honestly don't have like a super strong take on whether Cooper cup is washed or or or if he's in just like a mild decline I definitely think the data points to he's probably he's definitely a diminished player from 20121 I would I would be shocked if we comes out and we see that type of season again from him but if he can hold it what he was last year when he was coming back from an injury uh when he is just a slightly older player after all of these injuries he can be a still a quality starting receiver and I think a good second fiddle in the Rams offense it's just kind of an unknown as to whether he's going to be that guy whether more injuries will occur uh but the player we saw on film last year was definitely diminished but not completely falling off a cliff is what I'd say I think you kind of hit on it there at the end that he's now a second fiddle you know when when he was like you know competing for offensive player of the year he was the clear-cut focal point of the offense he's not that anymore I also think it's interesting Jordan Jordan rodrig the Rams be uh top beat reporter has talked about the Rams possibly implementing some more two- tight end sets now they're going to remain a very primary three receiver offense that's not going to change but them playing more two tight end sets you know does that mean that their slot receiver Cooper cup might come off the field in those situations a little bit um that might be a way of taking some wear and tear off of his body and then they play you know in two receiver sets they play pukaa and Demarcus Robinson like might might they try to limit his snaps a little bit yeah what's possible I would say I would note too just uh Cup in terms of his slot percentage and his percentage of routes or percentage of snaps off the line in reception perception were both much higher than the previous season uh and his snaps behind the line of scrimmage are actually the the highest of of any year of his career uh so there was a little bit of usage to try to maybe ease some of the press coverage work away from him um the thing is though like cup has often functioned as almost like a tight end at times too so I think getting the like he'll literally chip Edge rushers and then get into routes I think that's the type of stuff that they have to cut out with him at this point there's no reason for him after all these injuries to take those kind of hits where and that's where more tight end usage might be actually a good thing for him to get that pressure off of his body so I've been neutral on Cooper cup for the most part I certainly take him when he slips a little bit the biggest feather for me in the cap of Cooper cup is that this offseason he has been healthy he has had no surgeries he has worked out the entire time otaa mini cam training camp I have not heard a single thing about injuries or limitations on Cooper cup whereas last offseason it was a mess and that kind of spilled into the season so yeah at least Cooper cup comes into this season healthy and there's certainly a big ceiling here all right let's get to the other side of the Tank Dell spectrum a young guy in tank Dell Matt tank Dell absolutely absolutely broke out in a big way last year before going down with the injury this trend of really small NFL wide receivers winning in big ways like when we were doing this 10 years ago or whatever it was you had to be big like big wide receivers led to touchdowns everybody wanted big wide receivers now there's so many guys like Tyreek and tank Dell and I could go Xavier worthy we'll see and go on and on about guys under 180 pounds that are winning what do you think about tank Dell's rookie season and can he earn targets when we know we have Nico Collins Steph Diggs Dalton Schultz also competing for targets there yeah I think Adam you guys know how high I am on Nico Collins as a player I feel like he's a guy we've brought up in previous shows and I think Nico Collins talk about a guy who launched himself into tier 2 for sure last year I mean his he was good in reception perception prior to CJ strad and prior to sort of this offensive change over in Houston but he definitely last year looked like a real Superstar his success rate versus man and man and press coverage is at that level that you'd want to see as like a true prob like top 10 receiver in the league that's how good I think Nico Collins is isolated from strout and everything there he's he's the real deal but man tank Dell was also awesome last year too and and you mentioned despite his size he lined up inside on only 19% of the snaps I sampled for ction perception he was lining up as like a real deal outside receiver and he got open on comeback routes out routs and Corner routes all at over 80% rate which is insane for again a smaller player like he's not running these little short routes or anything like that he's winning on Big Boy routes down the field outbreaking routes at a rate that is better than almost any other any other receiver last year not rookie receiver just better than any other NFL receiver last season so he's an awesome player in his own right I from a role perspective because I think Stefon Diggs you know he's been a reception perception favorite for a long time but he definitely took a step back last season in isolation and not just at the end of the season I think that's sort of the production is sort of um kind of a mirage there he was a guy that even from the early part of the Season he he was not separating especially down the field at the same level that we're used to I think Diggs if I had to pick who's going to run more slot routes here I think I think I might go with Diggs just because one he's actually played in that role before way back in Minnesota he was a slot receiver before kicking outside to move Adam thielen inside and two I think he's going to be important in their third down packages um like in the true dropback game because he can still get open at a really high rate on short in-breaking and outbreaking routes can Stefon digs so and that was actually an area where Houston's passing game struggled last year on later Downs uh they were not great uh from a success rate standpoint moving the ball so I think that's where Diggs is going to is going to be at his best whereas I think tank Dell will probably be more of a vertical outbreaking route receiver and I think CJ strout has the confidence to hit those hit those passes like I've generally been nik's the one in this room because he's an X he's probably never coming off the field because he's in that role these two guys I think are closer to each other Dell and and Diggs but no question tankal was an awesome player as a rookie and I think someone that again outside receiver 72.8% success rate vers man we generally want to bet on those players awesome that's awesome um lot to say here so to me like Nico Collins is the clear one here you know you you think about the Shanah hry you think about Julio Jones Brandon Marshall Andre Johnson you know that that's gonna Brandon iuk now that's Nico Collins I have him 16th overall I actually got some push back on that um I I want to be really aggressive on him we got to get this passing game right though because I think it's going to be extremely productive um CJ straw was incredible as a rookie has a lot of room for growth in terms of his touchdown rate he's only at 4.5% I think he can get up to like six% we just talked about this with JJ on the quarterback show um they play indoors they have a potentially leaky back end in their defense like they could be a shootout team um to me like oh and another thing on tank Dell you know I love that you point out that he's an outside receiver he's actually not that fast for a guy that is 165 lbs you know he ran almost 45 he wins like with agility and Route running insane route running um and he's not uh you know a slot receiver I think that Stefon Diggs is going to be the clear slot receiver actually I I'm I have Diggs and I I want to get it right between Diggs and Dell because I have them close but I want to get it right who's going to outscore who I have Diggs right now because I have a little bit of concern that t they're they're going to use him on returns this year and he's coming off this broken leg Yeah so in when they do use two tight ends you know I think it might be Diggs and Nico on the field and not tank Dell as a means of preserving him at least early in the season I I still think he's going to be an everyweek fantasy starter but I think he could he might be more of a wide receiver three than a wide receiver two at least early on yeah um but yeah I think it's going to be Diggs in the slot pretty clearcut yeah I thought this was for what Matt said about Steph digs decline this was the best landing spot you get him to Houston with CJ strad you put him in a clear slot roll and I still think he can win there I think Matt would probably agree he can still win in those short intermediate routes out of the slot so yeah I I think that it's pretty ideal landing spot for Steph digs if Steph digs would have gone somewhere else I would been like you know what forget it he's toast but this landing spot for Steph digs is pretty awesome Hines Ward Larry fero Reggie Wayne there have been a lot of receivers that you know dominated as outside receivers wound up extending their careers by moving uh inside all right let's go to Tee Higgins th Higgins this is one that we've been higher on than market and there's a lot of T Higgins haters out there Matt there are people that say t Higgins isn't that good uh I think people get frustrated because in a lot of games in the DFS streets at least he'll like be active but only as a decoy he's done this like three times G people zeros now that has nothing to do with his talent he's trying to get out there for his team or whatever but this is T Higgins contract year I expect the Bengals to let him hit free agency ton of motivation Joe burrow is healthy I think it's a pretty clean setup for T Higgins this year but what do you say to the people who say t Higgins isn't good enough to capitalize on this yeah I'm sort of mixed on T Higgins Where I think that he is a very good receiver I kind of am you know a lot of people say well any on any other team he'd be a number one I I'm I don't know if I totally believe that I think he's probably more of like that top of tier three receiver that we talked about where um maybe can function as a one but is he a true Superstar number one I I don't know if I'm quite there with him and last year I do I kind of want to throw a lot of what La happened last year out like I just want to kind of give it a pass because he did have career low success rate versus Man Zone and press numbers but he also came back to too early through injuries he was playing through injuries last year um so I think the data set from 21 and 22 which is I think more favorable for T Higgins is probably what we want to look at and again he's a guy that beats man coverage better than you think as a big receiver he can also High Point the ball and win down the field and he's got good release moves off the line of scrimmage against press coverage 73.5% in 21 72.4% in 22 so while I do think that t Higgins has sort of like kind of gone down my NFL receiver rankings only because I think other guys have come in and maybe passed him up um you know Garrett Wilson's or Chris olve like those type of players I think have have jumped and Devonte Smith like these type of players have jumped ahead of T Higgins but that's really nothing to do with him as a player and more just like the quality of NFL receivers around the league um he is going very late and this is what I'm kind of what I'm talking about with strategy in early rounds you know I might lean running back more early because you're telling me that t Higgins ADP is 57.7 in home leagues right now right and if you can get T Higgins in that range I think that is a smash we actually have him 39th overall in our rankings Evan is a little bit lower at 46 over all in his top 150 EV any thoughts on T Higgins before you move on I wouldn't be opposed to moving him up I mean I I'll look at that ranking George Pickens okay one that I am been completely out on because of situation not Talent Matt but scares me is George Pickins now George Pickins has huge games in his range we know he can score 40 fantasy points in a game we know he can score 30 fantasy points in a game however my take is that his profile combined with the way Arthur Smith and Russ Wilson Justin Fields play football is not ideal for where George Pickins is going people are very excited to draft George Pickins now that Deontay Johnson is gone so this is more of a situational fade for me than anything but I'm also not sure that George Pickins is like a guy that goes out and earns nine targets a game that I'm not sure that's his his game so anyways Matt what do you think about George Pickins now as the alpha in Pittsburgh yeah I think Pickins is another guy that's probably you know like a tier another tier three receiver but hasn't I don't think has shown enough to say he's got the potential to jump to that next group um he definitely improved off of a really poor uh success rate versus Zone coverage in year one of 68.3% um but it was only a slight Improvement to still be you know quite below average but he's he's very good against press coverage 73.9% success rate and solid overall against man coverage 68.7% so um I think he's a pretty good player I don't I don't tend to be super super high on George Pickins there're I always say you can never have a normal conversation about this guy because it feels like either people want to tell you he's secretly Elite and all of you are too dumb to see it or they think he's trash and like he's DJ CH and the truth is definitely somewhere in the middle there on George Pickins my my question similar to to what you have Adam which is just can he be a full field receiver because right now you know everybody wants him to run fewer deep routes and he definitely ran fewer deep routes in year two than he did in year one which what he did in year one was just completely non-sustainable but still the two routes he ran at an above average rate were nine routes and Corner routes and by the way those routes along with like deep out Breakers are his best routes he's he's not like why we want him doing more of what he's not good at like that doesn't make a lot of sense to me especially because Russell Wilson and Justin Fields primarily want to push the ball deep and outside the numbers they are not over the middle passer so I think his role definitely leans to to volatility and I think his skill set leans to volatility like the reason he's an up and down producer no question he had some of the worst quarterback play in The League last year there's no doubt about that but some of that is also just because of who he is as a wide receiver he's very much like an old school traditional vertical X receiver you know we can maybe get him some more layup targets for sure but again I don't know if that completely overlaps with the quarterback play that they have right now in the offens philosophy either the volum and the volume concerns on top of that go ahead Evan huge volume concerns I mean this team is built to run the ball look at their the complexion of their offensive line they have two running backs that they can use look at the history of Arthur Smith it's just I think George Pickins is GNA make big plays you know over the course of the season that's what he does outside the numbers but how many I mean it's it's hard for me to get past what happened to Drake London under Arthur Smith you know as it applies to George Pickins now under Arthur Smith and Pittsburgh and Drake London's a better player like a better player overall and certainly much better at separating on short like an underneath routes the routes where you'd want him to be a high volume Target earner so um yeah I have I again I'm I'm sort of Middle Ground on George Pickins I don't think he's um you know a terrible bet this year especially if you're just looking for big games but um he's also a guy by the way like his team you know publicly called him out for terrible effort last year and if you watch like film that's all that is at least like 10% of the game you want him to be playing faster and harder for sure and George Pickins ADP in home leagues right now is around 59th overall so not crazy Evans down at 72 overall though on George Pickins uh the Chiefs situation just quickly on Maris Brown and Xavier KC Chiefs WRs worthy so people have kind of forgotten about Maris Brown it wasn't that long ago though he was putting up some serious numbers and with some really good underlying stats now I think he's settled in the general thought is that he's a middling mediocre wide receiver but with Patrick Mahomes you can find cealing outcomes in his range this season what do you think about Maris Brown and then anything on him vers Xavier worthy who do you think would be a better NFL player yeah um I think Maris Brown's just solid NFL receiver like he's a real starting level NFL receiver which is a lot more than anybody you could say in the chief's offense last year um particularly the outside wide receivers so I think he'll be a pretty significant upgrade there he is definitely a better Zone beater than a man beater but teams typically don't love to play a lot of man coverage against Patrick Mahomes especially when they have actual competent receivers because you know he's a guy that can absolutely destroy you from a man coverage perspective so I like Maris brownie solid I I don't have you know a super strong take one way or another on him just that he's like a professional NFL receiver which is certainly an upgrade for them for Xavier worthy uh this is another one of those players that like had he gone to any other team I probably would have not liked it in the first round but I think it makes sense for Kansas City you know I'm not a sizeist at the wide receiver position um especially when you know tank Dell shows you like he can Z flowers tank Dell those guys can shows you show you they can play like against press coverage and man coverage on the outside with with Xavier worthy there's just no question that at in college it was an issue you know 59.5% success rate versus press um contestant catch rate is poor I think he is definitely a guy that will have to be schemed into the right situations this is an offense where they can scheme him into the right situations so it's a good landing spot for him I've definitely gotten higher on Rashid rice throughout the like fantasy season because obviously it sounds like he might avoid a suspension but the way they used rasid rice like I I didn't like rasid Rice's Prospect profile at all um he was definitely a player that I didn't rank very highly coming into the NFL um because he he was just not a good college player um at least on on reception perception but the way they used him last year was so different uh than what happened at SMU so just put it in perspective like Rashid rice in his RP profile lined up outside right on 83.6% of his sample snaps he was on the line of scrimmage for 70.6% and he ran a nine route or a curl route on 56% of his routes which is just pure outside stretch like static route Tree in Kansas City last year they move him into the slot 47.6% of his sampled snaps were in the slot he was mostly off the line and he ran a slant route on 38.3% of his ched route which is the highest for any receiver since 2014 so I just feel like with these outside receivers you know kind of stretching the field clearing out space underneath I still feel like Rashid rice who is definitely still not a perfect route Runner um but he's solid against Zone coverage he's a little bit like early career ju guu or early career Jarvis Landry I feel like he's going to gobble up a lot of targets so when I'm talking about Chiefs receivers I tend to actually gravitate to Rice even though I didn't love his Prospect profile coming in they just used him in a completely different way yeah and I I know just from talking with our guys if Rashid rice was not going to be suspended at all we would have him ranked in round two for sure like we would have Rashid rice as round two wide receiver he's currently going in round five or six because everybody's so afraid of the suspension which could be anywhere from zero to six games we really have no idea at this point Evan has Maris Brown and Xavier worthy backto back in his rankings as 65th and 66th overall respectively Evan any more thoughts on Chiefs wide receivers I'm just really interested to see first of all apparently Maris Brown has been incredible so far in training camp like his Rapport immediately with Patrick Mahomes has popped off um I'm I'm just really intrigued to see how Andy Reid deploys Xavier worthy um because he obviously is a guy that can you know run like the wind but also he's another guy that was really good with the ball in his hands on returns in college and Andy Reid has always kind of had this infatuation with guys kind of like on the Xavier worthy Spectrum DeAnthony Thomas um cadarius Tony he obviously hit with Tyreek Hill you know as a player sort of on that Spectrum obviously at the extreme top of that Spectrum at this point Deshawn Jackson Deshawn Jackson um so how Xavier Worthy is used I think is going to be really really intriguing along with you know Rashid rice as that big slot and then Maris Brown I think is the clear perimeter receiver okay we got Calvin Ridley news yesterday that DeAndre Hopkins strains his knee and will be out four to six weeks we had an outlier position Matt at ETR we had DeAndre Hopkins ranked ahead of Calvin Ridley and a lot of that was due to underlying metrics DeAndre Hopkins looks better in almost every underlying metric there was not a base take but every all the underlying stuff Advanced Data was in DeAndre Hopkins favor Market didn't see it that way market was taking Cal gidley ahead of DeAndre Hopkins now it's not great for us because DeAndre Hopkins ADP is going to tank and he's come into the season hurt and he's 32 years old with a knee injury now obviously opens the do some more for Cal Ridley so what do you think about those two versus each other and if DeAndre Hopkins misses time can Calvin Ridley be an alpha it did not go well I didn't think it did not go well for Calin Ridley and Jacksonville last year yeah it did not go well for Calvin Ridley at least um from a results based perspective and you know even like his reception perception data is fine I would say from last year in Jacksonville but I was I know I was definitely too um quick to kind of yada yada the fact that this guy hadn't played football in a year and a half because like even if his results were solid last year it wasn't anywhere close to his previous career Peak in Atlanta he definitely was not the same player coming back and like will he suddenly be that guy you know after a full season back in the NFL I I don't know maybe that's like a a complete unknown but the player he was last year was I think better than some people think but definitely not as good as his previous career peaks in Atlanta now deployment was definitely a big issue for Ridley last year because the biggest drop off from his Atlanta days to what he did in Jacksonville was his success rate versus press coverage numbers which would L kind of pushing towards that tier 2 result um in in in like the 2020 you know one sort of 2020 season 2019 season with the Atlanta Falcons um but it was definitely a huge drop off right like in his Peak years with with Atlanta he was anywhere between 78.6% and 75% success rate vers man excuse me against press he dropped down to 66.7% last season and and the problem was that the Jaguars really almost never did anything to to get him away from press coverage you know he was pretty much exclusively an ex receiver um he ran a go route a curl route or a comeback route on 48.6% of his sampled routes which is just insane again very static like X receiver usage and this is a guy who's a good route Runner you want to get him off the line of scrimmage and and moving around the formation which I think they will do in Tennessee but a lot of that was based on the fact that they had a Static X receiver in in Andre Hopkins to take that role so as long as Ridley stays in the in the in a better role I think he can be an okay player this year um you know beyond the fact that he dropped too many passes and all that stuff last season like it last year was just really everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Ridley um I I do think he'll be better deployed in Tennessee but I like it a lot better if DeAndre Hawkins is in the mix and able to be a good X receiver for the Titans the history of guys who like sit out an entire season and then try to come back is just not great I mean you get out of the mode of like playing football for an entire year Le'Veon Bell look at Deshawn Watson you know Calvin Ridley comes back not the same guy um yeah you know it's it's it's tough man taking an entire year off oh I wanted to ask you Matt do you have any level of optimism for trayon Burks I own him in a dynasty league and I need him this year you think it's just you think it's you think it's just over what about like big slot yeah no so that's that's what player he'd I think have to win is as a big slot receiver of course they have Tyler Boyd they got Tyler Boyd yeah yeah so that that's my fear is that now if Hopkins misses any time Burks is just gonna have to go out and play X receiver which he he did to start his NFL career and it was ter it was not not a good result I know he's missed time but the film on tray and Burks has been a mess you know through the first two years of his career uh yeah when he was coming out I liked him exclusively as a big slot and not a guy that could play outside X receiver and unfortunately that was the role let the Titans pegged him in so um I if I was them I would give him a shot I I'd want to see what he could do as a slot over Tyler Boyd but I don't think that's what's going to happen uh the only reason that I take shots on I was taking shots on DeAndre Hopkins and some back doors with Levis on uh tayin Burks in bball would not do this in redraft but um is the philos philosophical stuff I think this team's very very throw heavy is it going to be successful though I don't think Cal reallyy is as good as the public perception thinks Matt just outlined and then you have DeAndre Hopkins injury and trayon Burks it could and will Lis might just not be it so you know there there's a lot of ways it can go bad but I think philosophically they do want to throw and if it hits maybe it hits 20% of the time or something you could get a really big payoff here on these Titans guys all right let's go to the Chargers now I Ladd McConkey know Justin Herbert has this foot issue sounds like he'll be okay for week one maybe not as mobile I don't think we're going to downgrade the receiver at all based on this Justin Herbert planter fascia issue which brings me to Lad makoni and Josh Palmer now we were way high on Josh Palmer versus Market Market has come to us still think he's a solid pick especially where he's going to go in hom leag which will be very very late the one people are more excited about is lad makoni I know we don't have a huge sample on lad makoni but when the Chargers do throw this season I expect it to be pretty concentrated Matt what do you think about makoni first Palmer stuff here this season yeah I I have kind of warmed to Josh Palmer too I think he showed a lot more in year three than in year one certainly when I charted him um so he's a guy that I think is has been a pretty solid pick in in fantasy for sure and I'm also just higher than consensus on the Chargers offense um I if you go back and look at and I know this is like ancient history I mean what the hell were any of us doing in you know 2011 2012 2013 um like Colin Kaepernick when he was in that offens like consistently averaged as a starter over 13 yards per completion like I don't they're not going to throw as much as as Justin Herbert used to but I don't think that necessarily has to be a bad thing I think from a structural perspective this offense is more in line with the current meta of the league than whatever the hell is been going like it was it's not you mentioned Austin ekro like doing the show with ekro the last couple years I watched a lot of Chargers football and that was not good offense at any point whether it was because of injuries or and under certain coaches I think not a great approach so I think the change can be good for just Herbert and the passing game even if the volume comes down so that makes me still kind of interested in these receivers with Palmer I think he's a just a solid NFL player with makoni he was a guy that you know because he's white and like small he gets kind of stereotyped as a scrappy slot receiver but when you look at his RP profile man he was like mostly an outside receiver he took 69.7% of the snaps I charted on the outside he was off the line of scrimmage for 65.8% definitely struggles against press coverage e8th percen success rate vers press but his man coverage success rate 85th percentile he runs like I talked about tank Dell he was probably the best outbreaking route runner in the class this year outside of the big three 83.3% success rate on out routes while running them 13.5% of the time and that's like Offman coverage he'll destroy uh guys on outbreaking routes so I ComEd him to more of like a Tyler Lockett player than a you know one of these Scrappy slot guys so um I I really like makoni I I've If he if he's healthy if Herbert's healthy and this offense is kind of as I expected to be a little bit better than people think I actually do think he can be a really good pick this year and probably lead this team in catches I think the past volume concerns are are the really the biggest concern here I mean so you think that the Chargers are I I could see the Chargers offense being really good um from like a a like a running standpoint but you add in like the Justin Herbert injury um which I think is a concern like for his mobility in particular it sounds like it's going to linger the entire season I know we haven't all had time necessarily to uh you know to digest that because it just ain't came out last night I don't so you think that they're going to be like um they could be like a a run first team that's like explosive throwing the football down field yeah that's been the way I thought about it because and another part of this and yeah obviously all of this was you know kind of thought of before we realized he's going to have like a potentially lingering foot injury yeah I was thinking of it as this is an offense that definitely is going to lean into the Run game but they have a they should have a much better offensive line than at any other point in Justin Herbert's tenure there like there's a reason Austin Eckler is catching all these checkdown passes because Herbert wants to get the ball out fast to he's another guy that's not definitely not in the Derek Carr like range but he he's much better under pressure than Derek Carr is but he's a guy that wants to read out plays the right way and if if things are not covered he's quick to check that ball down which again from a play calling perspective is the right thing to do but I think in this offense they'll have more they'll have further routes down the field routes further down the field that will be available to him and I think the pass protection will be better so it should be a run first unit that is more efficient throwing the ball like this Justin Herbert's never had more than 11 yards per attempt or right around that range and excuse me yards per completion in his career this has been a very short average depth of Target offense I think this one will probably be the furthest a DOT he has at any point in his career sure and a lot of that is where Kean Allen runs routes and and how and how much volume Kean Allen was getting Market is not on this at all I mean l makoni is going 101st Josh Palmer is going 156th these guys are going to come up I think in home leag ADP a little bit but as it stands right now in our top 300 stuff we are way ahead and a lot of that is just concentration of targets you know if they're going to play a lot of two tight end sets and makoni and Palmer are the ones that are out there you're going to get a lot of concentration on targets there let's go to you know what let's go to everybody's favorite quote unquote Jameson Williams sleeper who I can't call a sleeper to anyone listen to this because Jameson Williams has been a darling of I guess wishcasting for a while including myself I've always and EV and I have talked about Jam Williams needs J Mo needs wh Mo targets my concern always Matt with Jameson Williams is where Jared gof likes to throw the football shortish over the- middle-ish is already where he has some really good options leaport Aman raah jir Gibbs and so when you start trying to give James William a lot of volume it's hard for me to see it now just from a player perspective just watching him I mean he just flies off the screen right they give him an under an end rounds dude flies off the screen if you watch Alabama tape you can get to the full 3.9 on Jameson Williams my concern has been volume more than anything but I know some people have concerns about the player also here Matt so what do you think about Jameson Williams here as he enters what everybody's expecting to be a breakout season yeah I was joking a few months ago that I didn't realize that Jameson Williams was the most most important player in the NFL because like anything we did on our podcast about Jameson Williams on any on like reception perception the show or or over at Yahoo like all of those clips like blow up because I he's just like the most disgusted player at least in the offseason um so he's I think actually he is the longest reception perception profile I've ever written on the site because which again is just absurd for a guy that's you know not really done much in his NFL career so far um but I think the reason that that I I sort of wanted to expand those thoughts it's a profile I think you know people should should read in full I mean for God's sakes I wrote so much they they should um I do think it needs a lot of context like if you look at his overall success rate numbers from last year they're all poor 13th percentile against man 12th against Zone 15th against press but the reason for that is the first three games of that sample which were weeks 11 to 13 I mean the results were like unspeakably bad like he wasn't even really a functional and his his success rates are like Quinton Johnston level which not spoiler alert real real real as bad as it gets like you know Quinton Johnston Justin Hunter Terrace Marshall type of range in terms of RP history but if you look at the and I never do this stuff but I think it's important in this particular example because it lines up a lot with what the coaching staff has said like when they started to feel better about him was late in the season so if you look at the games I sample from weeks 15 to the NFC Championship Game those numbers are actually solid they're not perfect but like 67.3% success rate versus Man actually 84.8% against Zone which is a really high quality number his lowest number is still against press coverage which for me has always been the concern with him eating even dating back to Alabama if he was going to be a consistent number one option Target earner I think his success rate verse press has to be better but obviously that's not what they're going to ask him to do in Detroit so i' I've said that despite all the time I've spent talking about and thinking about Jameson Williams I actually don't from a fantasy perspective don't have a really strong take on him because I think the data can point you in a lot of different directions I would love if they use like they need what I have keep calling like in in NFL offens these days like a sacrificial X receiver somebody to just sit on the backside and and like run clear out routes which unfortunately was a lot of what they did with him last year because I think if if used off the line of scrimmage and moved around a little bit I think he could be like a Brandon Cooks type of player in this offense which obviously has some roots with the Saints from Dan Campbell and everything um his some of his data does point you to like the routes he's going to be best on would be the Brandon Cooks routes like post routes and dig routes and Corner routes but again a lot of it comes down to usage like if if Jameson Williams is just going to be the X receiver for this team then I think he's going to be a five to six Target player but if he's deployed a little bit differently which I think he could do specifically because that success rate versus Zone coverage in the final five games of the sample was actually pretty good then I think maybe we're talking about a player who could expand that role a little bit there there's a reason why he generates so much interest and it's not just because he pops off the screen although that's probably the number one reason but it's because he's in like such a good situation on paper's highly functional passing offense plays indoors you know is going to score a lot of points the lions are going to score a lot of points to what extent is he going to be involved in that scoring I you know he's really really exciting to think about the reports at a training camp I mean there have been multiple reports that he's winning on a a more diverse route tree uh which would be really really nice for his chances of of earning you know maybe seven to eight targets per game yeah it's just a lot of competition and he's in a spot where jroof typically does not like to Chuck it deep down the field but I don't want to be like I'm out on James Williams because man I mean he can go go for 30 balls at any time his ADP is 123 right now in home leagues I I would expect that to rise significantly they also keep thinking it's going to rise and it seemingly doesn't you know I keep I keep kind of thinking it's going to climb up and maybe yeah by the end of August he's a fifth round pick which I think I think that would be aggressive yeah but I mean talk about the areas that Jared gof likes to throw the ball he does like to throw the ball deep down the middle of the field which 74.3% success on post routes and 77.8% on dig routes like those should be the Jameson Williams plays so like I said I I'm kind of Middle Ground on Williams and I think the only thing I outright reject is anybody that's like well we've never seen anybody be this unproductive to start their career and then go on to be a quality start like let's have a little bit of context for a guy who's had what a weird start to his career to put it lightly injury suspension I mean it's been a mess yeah um could dpj be their Donovan peoples Jones be their clear out guy and Jameson the clear number two I mean that would be nice yeah that's what we're hoping for for sure all right similarly very much talked about in fantasy circles is Jackson Smith in jiga Jaxon Smith-Njigba now the way they used Jackson Smith in jiga last year I couldn't believe it I I just I couldn't believe it and I know that he came into the season with a broken hand and it it was messy from the start for much of the year jsn had like a three- yard ad dot that is not how I thought jsn would be used it all in the NFL thankfully that regime is completely out Ryan grub regime is in maybe it's hard to tell from the from the tape and the charting mat considering how jsn was used last year but in this new scheme what is the side scenarios and how can he hit them for jsn yeah I'm with you I didn't like that usage either I think a lot of it was just you know he did probably fall behind after being injured in in parts of the offseason and the preseason process but I think the film on Jackson Smith and jiga was much better than people realized last year I mean 72% success rate versus Man 81.5% against Zone those are really quality numbers uh for any receiver but much less like a rookie receiver that wasn't really involved I I I was a big fan of jsn as a prospect but I think he just kind of got banged when he was drafted by the Seahawks because like you can be as good as you want and we can say oh the talent Rises to the top or cream Rises to the top whatever but DK mcaf and Tyro Lockett um I think Lockett has declined a little bit as a player and I think meaf is sort of leveled off like as a probably like tier three receiver but those guys are great Pros that at time have have been like flirting with top 10 receiver status in the league so you as a rookie that time in Camp you're just not going to steal a bunch of targets from those guys but again that's why I think looking at him in isolation via reception perception is really important because what he was asked to do even when he wasn't targeted just from a route running perspective was really good like I think he separates well I think he separates in the intermediate area I think his role will be very similar in Ryan Grub's offense to like a jayen pulk last year I I tweeted out their two route trees like side by side and it's very very similar so a guy that probably is number two in the offense but can gobble up a lot of targets I think there are definitely I like I'm I'm trying to I'm trying to talk myself into outcomes where jsn can actually lead this team in in receiving and certainly in catches this year uh just because I think there are were they use much better as a rookie than than I think many people believe and overall I'm I'm very interested in how this offense is going to attack defenses uh after seeing what Ryan grub did I think he might be like the clearest year two breakout candidate in the entire league yeah um and I I I do do think that him becoming the number one is within the Rage of potential outcomes they're going to have problems you know they they're going to have potential problems getting the ball down field because they're offensive line situation number one number two man you know Tyler Lockett he was one of your best hits of all time you were like a year early on him I remember would say like two years three years like two yeah even even multiple years early never wrong just early yeah tagline of the site Tyler locket Tyler locket turns 32 next month yeah you know he's he's a guy who's a candidate to fall off the cliff and and I think that DK metca yeah he's kind of like plateaued so I I think that the opportunity is definitely there for jsn to be the Seahawks number one this year yeah we have we've been massively high on jsn all offseason we're currently at 82 overall and half PPR on jsn in our top 300 his ADP is around 117 and that's way off of Tyler Lockett who we have down at 117 overall certainly baking in some risk of a cliff not just a decline but a Cliff for Tyler Lockett all right Curtis Samuel three more kind of smallish ones here before we get to Matt's underrated and overrated first one I wanted to mention or ask about is Curtis Samuel there's a lot of people out there that are like man Josh Al doesn't have any receivers don't worry don't worry he has Curtis Samuel everything's gonna be fine I I kind of that's me I kind of reject that I know Matt is more on Curtis Samuel Matt go ahead on how Curtis Salman can save the bills passing offense which lost Steph Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason I talk about never wrong just early Curtis Samuel um yeah no look I I've always been a big fan of Curtis Samuel's game I think he is a player that can line up on the outside and beat man coverage I mean every season I've charted of his he's been at least above 75% success rate vers man um I think he can win in multiple roles uh just again always been higher than consensus on Curtis Samuel and I have questions about whether Keon Coleman can be like a day one outside receiver he is certainly if you look at um like I mentioned Rashid rice his below average success rate versus Man impr Press numbers like all of the guys that go on to be that do that in college like finish sub 35th percentile success rate versus man and press numbers every player I've charted that fits into that group that's gone on to have sustained Career Success all of them have moved to be like big slot or slot receivers so in the long run I do think that's where Keon Coleman's going to be best maximized which is a little problematic just because I think Samuel's been a slot guy although I think he can play more outside K Shakir is a nice slot receiver but that's they definitely I think M Hollands is going to play a lot more than people thinking he's going to be that like sacrificial X receiver for the Buffalo Bills but yeah I I'm higher than consensus on Samuel just because I think he's a really underrated player underrated separator that's not just like a gadget guy so um I am definitely one of the people that I'm I don't know if the bills are going to be um all all right but I definitely think Samuel's the best bet in this receiver room here yeah Curtis Samuel would be a he will be 28 years old next week so certainly but I mean you know this Carolina ties here certainly like him for sure Evan you have Curtis Sim at 102 overall ADP is at 127 evans's also at 124 on CLE Shakir any thoughts on Buffalo wide receiv series before you move on Evan it's one of the most interesting receiver groups in the league because we kind of just don't know but I love to hear the optimism on C Curtis Samuel they gave him a pretty good contract he's got the history with Joe Brady um I'm going to think about moving him up after this show all right guy that I've taken that Steve Smith hates Jerry Jeudy and we'll find out if Matt hates him also everybody seems to hate is Jerry Judy I was looking through the YouTube comments from our sleepers show and even Jerry Judy with an ADP of hold on let me get this right here even Jerry Judy with an ADP of 147 people were still making fun of me for liking Jerry Judy as a sleeper here Matt we've everybody has seen Steve Smith say that Jerry Judy sucks do you agree that Jerry Judy sucks or or does he just need a change of scenery here to Cleveland well you should ask those people in the YouTube comments Adam not that anybody should ever go into the YouTube comments but you should ask them what they thought about Jerry Judy 365 days ago we should ask what Steve Smith thinks about Jerry Judy yeah well we know I think we know but like people forget Jerry which this was wrong and I was definitely on the the other side of this at the time that people were all in on Jerry's Judy last year like going because of his you know yards per route run against man coverage and stuff like that but um I've always been of the opinion that he's a very inconsistent player I mean the fact that the last two years he's finished below 71% success rate versus man or excuse me success rate versus Zone coverage is really poor and I think speaks to some of that inconsistency I mean we're talking about eighth percentile in 2023 against Zone coverage and that again that's after what a lot of the I heard last year was oh he's in 2022 he's in Nate hackett's offense and he's he's not a that's that's a poorly designed offense well that held true in a second season in Shawn Payton's offense which I do think is pretty for all Shawn Payton's flaws is a is a is a pretty well-designed offense I I find him just to be kind of a confusing player because he's definitely a solid man coverage beater but I he he's been mostly living off reputation in terms of Route running like that he was a pre-draft like oh guy guy's a really good route Runner that has not been true in the NFL for like the last three years he's he has flashes but he's not a consistent player so I don't know if I love him being a slot receiver either I've always thought he functions a little bit better outside against man coverage when we're run when he's running like vertical routes I think that's been his best work so that's a little bit confusing to me in Cleveland because I still have like a small bit of hope that Elijah Moore's a better player than he's been from a production standpoint I think Amari Cooper is been he's played his best footb in Cleveland um no question I think he's been awesome the last two years the best two seasons of his career in my opinion so I just don't really see the room for Jerry Judy to be like a huge impact player but I to to answer the question does he suck I don't think he sucks but I was definitely lower than consensus on him last year and right now I I don't know he's not a guy I'm super gravitated to even if I don't think he sucks necessarily yeah and we you know obviously we try to separate real life analysis from from fantasy analysis Matt Haron here is doing you know real life football analysis he's so cheap in drafts because people like hate him that you know he was like on our sleepers list you know what's his ADP like 160 147 or something okay 147 yeah I mean he's barely in the top 150 um if Elijah Moore grabs the slot roll kind of gets his act together and grabs the slot roll then maybe Jerry Judy could be the Z play outside a decent amount they're going to run three receiver sets a lot they they're not going to have Nick chub you know they're going to play a more spread under Ken kend dorsy and um you know in that scenario I think that Jerry Judy could get more outside reps with Elijah Mo in the slot all right last one here before we get to Matt's overvalued and GB Packers WRs undervalued players is Davian Wicks we have four four Packers wide receivers people are interested in jayen Reed Christian Watson Romeo dobs Davian Wicks we may get to Christian Watson in a minute here so I want to keep this to read dobs and Wix I think the perception in the FAS Community is Wix is just this unbelievable wide receiver who just needs a chance and when he gets that chance he's going to usurp some of these guys dos Watson Etc how good do you think Davian wix's Matt and is jayen Reed actually GNA be the alpha here these four guys in Green Bay are all good to some degree and And I stress to some degree there because they can all function in certain roles which is going to make this problematic like regardless of who's on the field the most I think the ball is going to get spread around here cuz all these guys deserve work and by the way they have two pretty good tight ends they have a running back day invested in even a guy like Bo Melton led the team in yards per route run in a small sample last year so I think it's hard to be super bullish on any of these guys as like oh you know this is the player or whatever I would say from a talent perspective the two guys I think are the best are probably uh Jaden Reed and Davian Wicks um just from like I was a big fan of Jaden Reed's Prospect um he I think is a better route Runner than people like think coming off this kind of design touches role as a rookie so I get why he's the first off the board uh totally kind of understand that even if it is um you know he's kind of far off there at this point I just think he is the best receiver if they don't play him in two receiver sets this year I guarantee you by week four Packers f are gonna be like you know what the is going on with why is Jaden Reed not on the field every single snap because he is that good and I think that much better than everybody else on on the team um with DOs he fits perfectly in this sacrificial X receiver role that I've been talking about um where's a clear out guy even Jordan love Drew up like his his dream play call and he literally had him as the backside X receiver running a go route so Jordan love believes in the sacrificial X receiver Theory but dobs is also solid like he's gotten I think he was much better in year two than in year one so he's not a guy that you can just pluck off the field but yeah davan Wix is is a good player man 72% success R versus man as an outside receiver like I said your outside receiver who goes over 70% success rate versus man good is a good player you know like he's he's a guy who can run routes showed really well as a day three receiver played in multiple positions um High success rate on intermediate routes like base NFL routes too like Slants and curls so really think he's a guy that if given the chance probably could shine um I just don't know that you can feel too bullish about playing time in this particular room yeah I mean that that's been my take on this room and I I talked about it on the sleeper Show when he brought up Wicks is just it's really hard for me to see anyone consolidating here outside of maybe maybe Jaden Reed but yeah Evan go ahead on I I think that we could get to a point in the season where a number one emerges um but as you mentioned like they're GNA they can open the season they're loaded with young Talent at the skill positions I mean they can open the season with big rotations Five Guys that they could play at receiver two tight ends you know they can use a lot of different Personnel packages and you know no guys no guys playing More than 70% of the snaps like I think that they might come out doing that the the offense as a whole I think is going to be really really productive it's just trying to pinpoint which which dude is going to be the I think that we could you know with like injuries and you know the way they parse playing time at some point in the season we can get to a point where where where we have like one or two studs here but it's going to be tough early in the year I think for sure all right we gave Matt a homework assignment before this show we asked him Matt’s Underrated WRs to identify two wide receivers he thinks are underrated and two wide receivers he thinks are overrated to discuss here be at the end of the show Matt let's start with underrated who's your first guy for underrated here among wide receivers in the NFL yeah let's talk about my guy Josh DS uh I think Josh DS is such a good football player player um you know is he a slot only guy I don't necessarily think so I mean this is a guy who is a rookie came out and posted a 93rd percentile success straight vers man uh also very solid beating Zone coverage and in college he was the best contested catch receiver I charted in that class he wins at all three levels of the field just a guy that's going to be a consistent separator it's a I actually like the way the Colts receiver room comes together if and when ad Mitchell's able to fully be that that X receiver on the team I think he makes he just exactly what they were missing last year um I know he's like splitting time with Alec Pierson Camp I think it's some that's he's a rookie that's not like anything to raise an alarm Bell over but it just points me back more to Josh DS who I think is the established two in this offense and actually I think there will be weeks where Josh DS is the best and most productive receiver here because Michael pitman's a good player always been high on Michael Pitman but Downs is such a good consistent separator and Anthony Richardson's gonna need that this a guy who's not a consistently accurate quarterback and a player that I think when Downs was on the field last year in very limited looks like looking to him as that second reaction player yeah we are at 45 overall Michael Pitman which is behind 80P by nine spots ADP on Michael Pitman is currently 36 overall but we were at 130 overall on Josh DS which is 21 spots ahead of ADP certainly like Josh DS Colts are going to play so fast we've talked about how much respect we have for Shane siken and and yeah I like Josh DS in deeper leagues as a Target let's go to your second underrated wide receiver here Matt yeah um not to keep talking about Michael Pitman but I think Michael Wilson Arizona Cardinal rookie wide receiver and again I'm I'm going deeper I want to go to a little deeper names here not not go super obvious for underrated but Michael Wilson actually like if you look at Michael Wilson and Michael pitman's reception per perception rookie year profiles they're actually pretty similar and the reason I think that's interesting is because they used Michael Wilson a little bit like Michael Pitman early in his rookie career where he's off the line even though he's a big receiver he's off the the line of scrimmage he's running a lot of Slants and dig routes 26.3% of his chared routes were Slants 16.2% dig routes and he's another receiver outside guy that beats man coverage pretty well um he's not a perfect receiver but I think he showed enough in in this rookie year profile to be considered a guy that could be a good number two receiver in a good passing offense and that's what I think Arizona is going to be and what's really interesting about Michael Wilson is at the end of the year when Maris Brown went out they just moved Michael Wilson to that EX spot so you've seen Michael Wilson thrive in you know on tape thrive in two different roles and Kyler Murray having a lot of trust in him at the end of the year in that ex receiver spot which I think is good for Michael Wilson and it's good for uh Marvin Harrison and I wanted to save this point for this part because the fact that like Michael Wilson can take some X receiver snaps means that Marvin Harris is going to be able to move around so I'm just higher than consensus on a lot of what's going on in Arizona right now including the fact that Michael Wilson had a better rookie year than I think people realize Michael Wilson is just locked into that number two receiver role U behind Marvin Harrison obviously he's not going to overtake Marvin Harrison or anything like that but he has such a solidified role in an offense that we believe in that you know that has the potential to score a lot of points really well coordinated by Drew petzing I mean you look behind him Greg dorch he's like 57 in high heels Z Jones journeyman at this point Zach Pascal Chris Moore Michael Wilson is going to play a ton of snaps in a high-scoring offense this year I I recently jammed him into the top 150 I think he's like number 149 overall or something like that yeah for sure and I didn't think that Z Jones signing was like a great thing for Michael Wilson like maybe they didn't like Michael Wilson and they wanted to get Z Jones in there Z Jones I don't think is like the worst possible guy but right out right out from Camp Michael Wilson's been ahead of Z Jones the entire time working with the starters so feel good about Michael Wilson as one of those deep sleeper types all right let's get to overrated here Matt submitted two guys two wide receivers he thinks are overrated by the community Matt go ahead with your first overrated guy yeah I Matt’s Overrated WRs really hate that back toback years I'm gonna come on the show and talk about Keenan Allen because he's like one of my he was one of my favorite receivers of the last 10 years um and anytime I talk to an NFL receiver they're like oh yeah my favorite guy to watch is Keenan Allen from a route running perspective so I feel like a jerk doing this but he is the first guy I wanted to talk about here because you know I mentioned all the caveats with age Cliffs and how tough that can be um and Keenan Allen's 2023 season was definitely an improvement in reception perception on his 2022 results which definitely were T tainted by hamstring injury similar to what we talked about Cooper cup where we just don't know sometimes are these guys playing through something or or what um but it's still even if he bounced back in 2023 was not at the peak levels of what we saw from like 2015 and in 20 to 2020 in reception perception so and I couldn't care less about the production numbers or anything like that if you watched the Chargers offense last year and thought like the only thing they did well was get the ball underneath the Keenan Allen which definitely pumped up statistics but didn't result in quality offense all the time so I I just look at him moving to Chicago DJ Moore last year I think played well enough he was like one of the best receivers in the League last year he played well enough to be considered like a tier 2 NFL receiver I don't see his role changing as a guy that should move around the formation and win in the vertical game romad dun I mean this guy is so good I think romad dun is a baller I think he he's a player that went above the average success rate on all routes on the tree he was great against press he was great against man like I just think there's a chance he comes in here and re and like really shines and is just Caleb Williams's guy from the jump so the receiver I don't want to bet on in the room is Keenan Allen who probably is a slot only player at this point uh so as much as I like him as a player uh just a tough bet from a fantasy perspective yeah I think the Roman dun point is a great we were like when rankings first came out we were like 40 spots ahead of ADP on radun and I feel good about that market has come to us a little bit but certainly one of my most drafted players so far and Roman dunesday to me is an example in home leagues of what you can do at the wide receiver position in round six7 whatever current ADP on Rome is 98 98.7 on Rome we have him 63rd Keenan Allen we have 54th DJ Moore up at 36 Evan any more thoughts on Bears wide receivers before we move on here I just I think that the hype is warranted on this on the potential of this passing offense also like the reports out of training camp have been really positive really on all the guys um yeah lot a lot of optimism for the passing offense as a unit I do think that with K and Gerald ever they could play some two tight end uh sets and at that point who comes off the field if Keen Allen is slot only you would think it's Keen Allen but how does keen Allen respond to being passed over by a rookie etc etc so it could be a little messy early but I do think they're best two wide I would guess it's Odun who comes off to begin the season as we progress could be Keenan Allen I think if they want to win though it might have to be Rome you know to to Matt's point there okay last overrated wide receiver go ahead Matt yeah it's Christian Watson uh the one guy in this room that I think is a little misunderstood I think he's a good player and I think he's very valuable in certain ways um he's definitely a good deep threat I think he's much better after the catch than he's gotten to show at least last season to me he's a less as more player I think the Packers last year tried to put too much on his plate like by making him an out like an every down outside receiver I know the two the two things I push back on with Christian Watson is that well if he just stays healthy that's all like he's got everything else figured out I I couldn't disagree with that more he's a sub 30th percentile player against man Zone and press coverage he's not a consistent route Runner he does not profile as a guy that is going to be consistent recently available for the quarterback and by the way we saw that last year that's the other thing I pushed back on that oh he's when when he was healthy he was in every down receiver those are probably the wor except for the Lions and Chiefs game those were like the worst stretches of the Packers offense last year when Christian Watson was the featured player that's not all Christian Watson's fault I'm not saying he's the reason for for some of this but he's a guy that I think again when they tried to put too much on his plate that sort of suffered so for me I think he's the guy that like I think consensus is he's the second best receiver on this team I think Wicks could be better than him I think dos could be better than him uh mostly just from a playing time perspective I think the less they ask of him like he will be a low usage but high yield player so I generally just kind of not been a Christian Watson guy the first two years of his career the efficiency numbers are great but again I think the efficiency numbers make us like oh we should put more on his plate typically I think that's not the case for these type of guys that's super interesting because maybe that could lend itself to some definition at least early in the season on how these guys are going to be used in terms of playing time also the Packers have talked about how they want to you know try to get Christian Watson over the hump in regard to his hamstring injuries using him as the number four the situational deep threat uh Romeo dos as your you know sacrificial ex uh Jaden Reed in the slot and dant tavien Wicks as the Z I mean you know that might make a lot of sense um you know from a an injury management standpoint also based on what you just mentioned there Matt yeah and I think there'll be a rotation I mean that that's what I think I think there'll be a rotation between Watson and Wicks at a minimum I think dos will lead this team in snaps and routes for sure doesn't mean he'll be the most productive fantasy player the only push back I'd have on the Christian Watson stuff is he did a really good job earning targets when he's out there he was targeted heavily in the Red Zone he was targeted at a reasonable rate which is usually a good sign but I agree with Matt that adding more to his plate probably won't go well so we're going to look at this you know the Packers wide receiver stuff if you guys have listened to Market Monday really any other pods we've been working on this Packers wide receiver stuff really closely and it's difficult difficult difficult to get right in a situation like this all right appreciate all the time here from Matt I think we all learned a ton if you are serious about fantasy football you should certainly check out reception percep Matt any uh other words for the people where they can find you where they can find your work no thank you guys as always for having me on it's always a pleasure uh to break down these players every year and yeah man reception perception.com still cranking out um some profiles the rest of the year I wanted to kind of drag the drops deeper into summer so that we'd have some more act activity on the site so a lot of players being added up until week one uh over there so people should check it out uh be sure to tell your your close personal Friend Austin Eckler that we are hiring for a new fantasy analyst and if he'd like to come work for established run we really respect his his Fantasy game and we would be interested in at least conducting a first interview cool yeah I'll uh I'll let him know I'll let him know that you guys are hiring I hopefully you can hopefully you can meet his asking price okay hopefully hopefully all right four Evan for Matt for producer Luke for producer Ryan I am Adam good luck everybody