WR Strategy, Sleepers & Busts in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

On Today’s Show on today's show we're going to talk all things wide receiver macro strategy for the position targets bus sleepers let's Exploiting Default Rankings/WR Strategy get into macro strategy here Leon at the wide receiver position hopefully you all listen to the running back and we talked about breaking ties in the first couple rounds by going running back because they're going to be so many amazing wide receiver values that fall I don't think we need to reiterate that as much here but I do think it's an interesting discussion do we think that the best ball wide receiver thirst spills into home leagues now this is a hard question because I'm sure in a lot of your guys home leagues out there there's a bunch of ETR Bros there's a bunch of best ball Bros and they are still going to be firing at wide receiver pretty hard there's also a huge swath of people listening to this who their opponents don't listen to any fantasy football content don't look at ETR rankings and they have Boomers in there they're gonna be want to take gonna want to take Jaylen Herz and Josh Allen in round one and they're going to be taking wide rece they're going be taking running backs way more often than they should and that's what we've seen in this home League ADP again if you go to the site under ESPN and Yahoo table rankings you can find ADP and ADP differential column in there so I know it's a hard question Leone but do you think the wide receiver meta has changed in home leagues at all year-over-year I think only mildly I don't think it's changed enough you know what we were talking the last episode I mean there's a start contrast when you do your F first redraft League compared to when you've been playing these bball league so uh I still expect wide receivers to go a lot later than they should and I feel like this year if anything it almost reminds me more of two years ago than last year um it reminds me two to three years ago when we were getting like Cooper cup Debo Samuel I'm on ra St Brown in these like rounds four through seven I think we're back to that I mean you're talking the Houston wide receivers you can get in rounds four and five uh Devonte Smith you can get there you can get T Higgins pretty late the receivers that you can get in this like dead zone running back range are good and we kind of talked about the dead zone running back being done on a previous podcast but I think that was more like high stakes redraft in baseball than it was you know home League redraft what we're looking at so I don't think the meta has changed too much now you have to know your league if everybody in your League's been pumping Underdog drafts it's probably going to play out a bit differently but uh for the vast majority of Home leagues I think you can still anticipate the running backs being thrust up a little bit earlier than they should and the wide receivers going a lot later than you're used to if you've been drafting best ball not that you need to have been so I I I think a point that I want to make is that some of the buzzier wide receivers are probably still going to go high in your home League I'm sure a lot of people listening to this are in competitive leagues they have been following at least the buzz so like romad dun Xavier worthy Malik neighbors Nico Collins I think some of those guys will probably go higher than their ADP in somewhat competitive home leagues but it's the ones with less Buzz around them that are going to go way too late I'm talking about Brian Thomas Jr T Higgins Amari Cooper Christian Kirk Chris Godwin DeAndre Hopkins Deontay Johnson though I could keep going but but those guys are going to be the ones that I think will fall uh in home leagues I'm curious Strategy v. Good Leaguemates Leone how you would consider adjusting your strategy if you're in a league with a bunch of people who are maybe a bit more advanced at least following the preseason buzz you don't expect you expect it to be a little bit in slant of running back but still a pretty wide receiver heavy draft how would you adjust your strategy then if you're playing against kind of different competition than your standard kind of home League Joe from accounting type stuff yeah I mean it's difficult that's where you know we talked about in the last episode breaking ties early for running back in favor of wide receiver maybe you tend to only take one running back early as opposed to a running back Running Back start if your league is adjusting a lot but I do think for most leagues even if a few of your League members are adjusting that there's enough depth of options that you're going to be okay I mean for any round you can give me we can look at the Yahoo default draft Outlet or ADP and I I can you know Name six wide receivers in that round that are all great picks so you might have to be willing to you know jump ahead of ADP on a guy like Malle neighbors if you really want him and our projections love him Silva you know Evan loves him in his top 150 you might have to take him in round three as opposed to waiting to round five yeah um or round four but that's really the only subtle difference I would be looking at for the most part I don't think there's a huge change last question on strategy we've talked a lot about zero RB and hero RB type stuff specifically on zero RB does not strike me as a great setup to do it this this year but yeah what do you think about starting your draft with I don't know four wide receivers in your Starting Draft with 2 WR first five picks or five wide receivers in your first six picks or even five straight wide receivers to start your draft or something like that Leone do you think that is viable this year in home leagues I think you're going to end up costing yourself a lot of potentially good values later in the draft um there's a lot of like veterans that we really like that are like in the prime of their career on good offenses in rounds four through seven but then once you get Beyond that there's a lot of really good rookie upside picks that you want to take that could win you year league you know Ryan Thomas Roman dun that you're not going to be able to draft if you've started with six straight wide receivers so if I'm going with a zero RB approach this year it's because I'm getting an elite quarterback and an elite tight end for sure it's not because I'm drafting six wide receivers out of the gate and I'm also probably doing it in a setting where I can start for wide receivers um whether it's two wide receivers in two flexes or three wide receivers in one Flex um so I I definitely want to be clear if I'm going zero RB though I will reach on a running or a quarterback to get an elite one I will make sure to get a top seven tight end and then that that still puts you in position to take advantage of some of those later wide receiver values right yeah I think that's a really good point because and and the more I think about it the only time I would consider going zero RB in a home League this year I think would be in a 10 Team league where I could start four wide receivers and it's full PPR like I would need all those conditions probably to have zero RB because in those setups I want to be prioritizing quarterback and tight end uh anyways and I could do what Leone just said all right let's get some targets here Evan we've talked about so Favorite WRs to Target many wide receivers this off season as you've been ramping up your drafts who do you find yourself targeting the most at the wide receiver position why not with a lot of Chris La um who I don't know I think that people have mixed opinions on him for whatever reason we had Matt Harmon on Chris is one of the best route runners in the NFL already you look at their their their list of Playmakers I mean I think they're to the point where they might need to use Tamm Hill more than expected because they just don't have Playmakers Chris olve is like in a tier onto his own in the in the Saints uh you know on the Saints playmaking totem pole and I think that with Clint kubak coming in from that Kyle Shanahan tree um he's going to get more layup routes which he he did not get nearly enough layup routes under Pete carmichel and I think he has a chance to like compete for the league lead in targets and um and compete for the league lead in receiving yards Malik neighbors I mean the buzz on him has just been so strong I think that there was a legitimate argument for him to be the best receiver in this class I don't think that that's something that anybody fabricated um because there were were people in the league that believe that and uh you know again this is another guy where the ball should just find him on the on on really like you know as many plays as as the Giants can possibly can because he is clearly their number one playmaker um Nico Collins I I you know I think that people are are still a little bit shaky on him because they see Stefon digs coming in um tank Dell is healthy entering his second season you know they they think that maybe Nico Collins isn't the alpha there like I think that he is the alpha there I think he's that ex receiver that the Shanahan tree has always had Julio Jones Brandon Marshall Brandon auk now Andre Johnson you know I think that he is on that level he I think he showed last year that he is on that level from a talent and certainly an athletic and size standpoint yeah I like all those guys that Evan said especially where they go I'm looking at Yahoo ADP right now Nico Collins 34.8 and uh olve is at 27.0 neighbors ADP is insane 65.5 I don't think that will last but still I would be I would have to like really control myself from passing on those guys at those prices Leone any priority targets for you at wide receiver home League yeah I'd say in once you get past the first two rounds the reason why we're comfortable going running back running back I think a lot of these receivers that are legitimately talented either on good offenses or playing with good quarterbacks but aren't necessarily like the number one wide receiver on their team are undervalued by the Home League Market you look at Cooper Cup on the ESPN ADP we're worried about Cooper cop and we're way ahead of ADP there Evan mentioned the Houston guys but I I'd say all of them kind of depending on where they go but Nico Diggs and Dell in particular I think goes way too cheaply because people are worried you know he's the third wide receiver but from a yards part out run standpoint um any efficiency even production in those games towards you know his last few games when he really emerged last year he was even better than Nico Collins from a fantasy standpoint so I think those guys are good there's three guys we were high on last year that like all did okay one fouled um that people don't want to go back to and that would be like T Higgins Jaylen W Devonte Smith and they're three wide receiver twos but I think are all on very good offenses I think they're legitimately talented by themselves where they can have really good outcomes for where they get drafted and then you have some potential to [ __ ] like these huge ceiling outcomes if an injury or something happens in front of him like Jaylen W if Tyreek Hill goes down is like a League winner so yeah I think just a ton of those guys that are just talented pretty much prime of their career and people are just a little bit concerned about the volume are the way to go and then I don't know if we want to get into like later round receivers quite yet um don't blow your load on sleepers you need to save something for the end of save something for the end of the show uh go ahead sorry I I would Rookie WRs just say in general there's a lot of very good rookie wide receivers this year you don't want your whole portfolio of your team to be rookie wide receivers like I was in on the rookies last year and if you had too many and you had um Jackson Smith and jig BBA you took him too early and he fouled you took H Johnston and he fouled could have been in trouble and I had teams like that last year so oh so that's why you're too low on jsn is because he screwed you last year that that actually does we're we're both in on jsn actually you're just you I'm looking at the fantasy pros like composite rankings right now they have Jackson Smith and jigo wide receiver 47 that's a wide receiver five yeah yeah it's it's crazy and that's where I think a lot of these young first and seconde receivers once you hit on a lot of those vets that we talked and I would even count League neighbors as a rookie because he's going to step in and see such a huge share of targets that we don't have to worry about production from day one but once you get four or so of those guys in that mix man if you can throw some combination of Z two guys between romad dun Xavier worthy Brian Thomas Jackson Smith and jiga on your bench lad mccon um I mean that that's really a great team where you've got four guys that you can easily start even though you didn't take a wide receiver in the first round or two and then you've still got a couple guys that could emerge over the course of the Season become clear-cut starters by the fantasy playoffs yeah I mean the part of the draft there where you can get those wide receiver twos on their team who I still like to me that's why it's a smash to hammer wide receiver these middle rounds T Higgins Devonte Smith Jaylen wad rasheid rice neighbors those would be my favorite targets through kind of the middle rounds there uh and then depending on what your league thinks of the suspension to or possible suspension to Jordan Addison doesn't sound like it's that likely to happen this year Jordan Addison would be a Target uh for me as well he's going to fall way late um as people are looking at these Rashee Rice fantasy pros composite rankings Rashid Rice's wide receiver 32 yeah I mean he this some those are a little because they're GNA be lagged on news but yeah yeah but I mean it says that they're updated for today but but either way like rasheid rice is like I he's a guy who I like he needs to be like around the top 20 number one yeah number two you have to remember like last year he had an awesome rookie season despite being a part-time player for like more than half of the year yeah yeah I think if Rashi rice is available to you in like the end of the third round I would I would just take him you know and and if he gets suspended he gets suspended but at this point it doesn't sound like that is overly likely go ahead leam I might wait till round four there um just given the wide receiver prices right now and and some fud on him but yeah I'm align that he's definitely one of our our targets okay let got two guys that we're not WRs Fades this Season taking so guy that I don't have much of at all is George Pickins we've talked plenty about the quarterback play that is coming for the Steelers here we've talked plenty about how Arthur Smith is going to call offense for the Steelers here it's just not going to be pretty and I was already worried about George Pickins paying off these really expensive price tags when I don't think he's the kind of guy that goes out and earns 10 11 Targets in a game gets layup targets Etc he makes big plays down the field so it's obviously a scary Fate on George Pickins he can have 30 40 fantasy points in a week for sure I just do not like to setup Mike Evans is one that I've kind of been shying away from some which is scary he played so well last year I love Mike Evans generally but gosh he's getting older he lost Dave Canal they bring in Jaylen McMillan who I think will be a big upgrade on Trey Palmer and so yeah the Mike Evans stuff scares me ter McClaren goes reasonably High I'm okay with mclen I'm just a little worried that jayen Daniels is going to be rougher as a thrower than maybe people are set out to be I have way more confidence in Caleb Williams as a thrower and then Christian Watson is another one that I loved him last year I am worried this year because I do think he'll be rotating with Dante Wicks a lot and like maybe that's not the end of the world for Christian Watson maybe he can still pay it off but I think we're going to have some floor games for Christian Watson or a lot of them too and that's tough to stomach in redraft leagues you can certainly stomach that more in best ball leagues Silva any wide receivers you've been shying away from him by the way Evans shy away list will be up here in the next seven to 10 days for uh players he should be next two to three days next two to three days perfect yeah it's outlined I just got to do the writeups um yeah Devonte Adams is a guy that I moved he's in he's in a cluster I still have him as like a two three turn turn guy but I'm not going to take him in the second round over players like jayen Wadd um Nico Collins Drake London Chris olve you know he's he's at the end of that tier for me because I just think that there's too much systemic risk he's aging but I mean he's still a baller but I think that that that team could really struggle offensively this season I mean they they felt forced to name Gardner muu their starting quarterback immediately after a preseason game where Gardner menu played horribly I mean their quarterback situation is a potential disaster and I think that there are real concerns like usually in these situations it gets overblown like oh can the quarterback get the ball to a certain receiver I think that this could be that bad like I'm not really worried about Daniel Jones being able to get the ball to Malik neighbors even has to be Drew lock I am worried about Gardner mshu and Aiden oconnell and then and then what happens when the wheels start to fall off like Devonte Adams's gonna want out of there um DK metf I think that Jackson Smith in jiga is the clearest cut second-year breakout candidate after letting people down as a rookie for some situ for situations that were out of control he got hurt during training camp never really got involved in the offense I think that he could overtake and G Smith has been talking him up big time I think that he could emerge as their number one receiver and that would take a lot of wind out of the sales of DK metf in Seattle and Keenan Allen is a guy that right after this I'm gonna go move down my rankings and I would like to hear the counterargument from Leon because I think that Leon is still on Keenan Allen it is scaring me to death that this dude apparently weighs 230 pounds when he came out of college who was 206 never been a fast guy and in both of the Bears first two preseason games is out there running around looking like a tight end while Odun looks just nasty he looks like a killer yeah uh I did talk about uh the Keenan Allen situation on Market Monday you can go back listen to that for my take on that we'll also be doing a news and news reactions pod uh later this week when we'll talk about more about Garner minu and I'm sure we'll Circle back on the fat Keenan Allen argument but yes Leone any Kean Allen takes from you and then any players you have been avoiding wide receiver home leagues uh I I'm pretty neutral on Keenan Allen there's probably gonna be guys that I like better than him I think some of the weight stuff's probably overblown I mean can they mention like all their receivers G anyway like I I don't know it just seems overblown preseason stuff's definitely scary when you're at that age but I don't know you know how much effort Keenan Allen's giving in these preseason games and how much the team's showing so I I'm neutral on Keenan Allen I'm definitely makes me feel better about my radun stance I'm very Pro Rome adun but a couple guys that I'm fading I agree with most of your guys lists but I'll add Michael Pitman to that one where I think in home leagues people are looking at last year's production he is a young receiver in the peak of his career but things broke really right for him last year with the Anthony Richardson injury the Goen mshu who I actually think he can get the ball to his receiver in a good enough way so I'm not as Lan Devonte Adams you know we saw that with Pitman last year and the team threw a little bit more than they would have with Anthony Richardson I just think he kind of hit his ceiling last year which was fine but it wasn't like absolutely League winning this year with Anthony Richardson probably going to throw a little bit less more touchdowns in you know the Red Zone area going to the ground game side of things and you've also got I know Josh STS is missing some time to start but he looked pretty good year one they drafted ad Mitchell who's looked good in the preseason so definitely some concerns with Michael Pitman and then I'll throw Calvin Ridley to the mix where we just kind of think the market has this backwards where DeAndre Hopkins should be going ahead of Calvin Ridley we have them back to back in our rankings but the market has Kelvin Ridley a couple rounds earlier than DeAndre Hopkins Hopkins did suffer that knee injury is a little bit older but on track to play week one and if you look at kind of the per route metrics last year even though their overall production was the same DeAndre Hopkins was much better than Calvin Ridley with a much worse quarterback situation just to address the the Michael Pitman thing Gardner muu thing um I just I don't trust Garder muu in a Luke gsy offense with Aiden oconnell potentially breathing down his neck as much as I did Garder muu in this super RPO heavy offense uh coordinated by or run by Shane styken um yeah but but you're right ball to to Michael Pitman last season I just I think it's it's a different situation uh for the Raiders this year and to Evan's fade point on Devonte Adams I think the bigger point is Evan mentioned a few other guys in that tier that he prefers all I just like those guys better yeah those guys all go after Devonte Adams so that makes the fade easier where you can get a running back there fade Devon Adams and then just get all the I mean some of those guys go two rounds after Devonte Adams um which just speaks to the home League ADP and efficiencies all right I want to say one more thing Jaylen Wadd and you know Le often talks about like that contingent value if something were to happen to Tyreek all of a sudden Jaylen W could absolutely blow up um Jaylen wild was a consensus second round pick all last season not nothing really has changed he's going a little bit later this year nothing really has changed um in except for Tyreek getting a little bit older obviously the Dolphins have the utmost faith in in Jaylen W because he was injured a lot last season they thought they gave him a huge contract extension um so he's a guy that I think is an awesome awesome third round pick coming at a little bit of a discount for reasons that weren't really you know within his control last season disappointed some people and he's cheaper now because of it and to Evans point there on Wadd his per route run stuff was actually like really encouraging he was 2.57 yards per route run uh people that are just using the per game stat sometimes will miss to evans's point that he just missed time during games that he played like he missed a lot of plays so that hurts his overall production line doesn't look as fancy but the per route numbers were really good 27% Target per out run 2.57 yards per out run all right let's get to late round wide receiver strategy and sleepers before we get out of here you know my take is that wide receiver fantasy points are scored through talent and that is why it's difficult difficult to find sleepers late in your drafts you know ideally I think my last few picks or running back or tight end you know more opportunity driven based stuff so maybe I can luck into a you know Noah Fant breakout late yeah he's not great but he's athletic enough and he gets the right setup that's not good enough for a wide receiver usually you actually have to be able to play and so I think at wide receiver I'm hoping to have stuff my room set up before the last couple rounds so guys like Gabe Davis um davien Wicks one injury away or maybe Standalone value we'll see how much he rotates with Christian Watson I think ad Mitchell who I was out on but since this Josh DS injury has made me reconsider if this Josh down thing lingers I think ad Mitchell is interesting but then the guys like that Jaylen Tolbert Greg dorch Michael Wilson I like those guys I like all those guys I'm just not sure in a redraft setting that they have enough actual ability to make a difference for me so that's kind of the way I think about late round at wide receiver Evan any Sleepers for you at the wide receiver position is is Jackson Smith and jiga a late round sleeper he's a mid slash late round sleeper let me see his round nine like his Yahoo ADP is 118 which is insane yeah okay um that's what you're gonna see he on the list yeah um khil Shakir things keep breaking right for Khalil Shakir like today we just learned that Curtis Samuel and mvs are out indef indefinitely I think that Keon Coleman might take some time to ramp up um I do think that he can have some big games uh but I I think he might take some time to to get in there Matt Hollins is going to be a player that I think will occupy that wind Sprint role and khil Shakir I mean I think like it could be Dalton conc but I I would actually I actually think that uh khil Shakir is going to lead this team in targets and catches um and I think he's like a legit good player high percentage weapon in the middle of the field can win outside and inside um you know being in an offense where you might lead the T lead the team in targets with Josh Allen like there's got to be a lot of upside there and he's really really cheap actually I moved him up a bunch recently I need to move him up even even further especially after these injuries around him Rasheed Shahed we talked about how the Saints are short on Playmakers Rasheed Shahed can make plays and I don't think he's been given a fair Shake as an actual receiver I think he gets that this year because they just used him as like you know run down the field vertical threat I he's so good in the return game like let's get let's figure out ways to get the ball in this dude's hands offensively we need to be able to move the ball so Rasheed Shahed I think makes a lot of sense as a a pretty clear-cut breakout candidate D davien Wix is a player that I came out really really hot on and I've had to move down because he's clearly throughout the duration of training camp and preseason been the Packers fourth receiver but I still think that he's draftable because I want to bet on that talent and I think he might be the best pure receiver that the Packers have and I believe in this offense I I think it's I don't think you're gonna be able to use him early in the season you know on your fantasy on your fantasy in your fantasy lineup but by the time we get to week five week six maybe someone goes down Christian Watson pulls his hamstring again dant Tavian Wicks becomes a starter and an asset uh in the Box Score Leone any late round wide receiver thoughts for you yeah I mean similar to the running back episode once you get past round eight or so like you you just care about upside I know people probably like sick of hearing the term upside and ceiling but the truth is in managed leagues the odds that you're dropping a player you take after round seven or so are like really high much higher than you think so you might as well reach for upside and and you mention like Greg dorch like don't don't draft Tyler Lockett because you can take a swing on a young receiver with a big ceiling and then if you run into a situation where need an emergency starter you can pick up a Geor type that's probably going to play slot roll catch some balls especially in a full PPR format so I hit on the rookies in the order I'd prioritize them once you hit round eight or nine um I would try to get two of these guys on your bench Xavier worthy romad dun Brian Thomas lad makoni Keon Coleman I would draft them you know in that order I think the young guys that aren't rookies that still have breakout potential Adam's been all over jsn but there's also James Williams you know his Yahoo ADP is 126 you're talking round 11 or so at that point um and he is locked in as the Lions number two receiver to the extent that the lions were talking about how they they're like desperate they use the word desperate that they're just trying to find a number three I I wouldn't even uh I wasn't considering James Williams a sleeper but if we calling him a sleeper then yes James Williams is a smash at 120 something but yeah to Leon's Point that's where he's WI receivers are going to go in home leagues and that's where I'm taking these guys over Mike Williams or Gabe Davis who we have ranked in a similar range because you know they will score more points they're going to project to score more points in some formats that matters in your average home League it doesn't you know these guys are going to circulate on waivers if you do want some combination of safety and upside two guys that I like kind of like post type sleepers but Romeo dos from Green Bay he goes third among Green Bay wide receivers I've seen some situations where he goes behind Wicks he's the favorite to lead the team in targets he's the favorite to lead the team in snaps played routes run I don't want to overthink this one he had two huge playoff games he's still a very young wide receiver he just didn't immediately hit the ceiling right away that we hoped so him and I'm still keeping the light on a little bit for Jerry Judy in Cleveland um but I think those guys give you a little bit more hybrid of startability whereas some of some of the youthful guys that I mentioned might be tougher to start out of the gate yeah I think those are great guys I I went too deep I should have I should have said the guys in that range like Addison and Shahed and Jameson Williams and Judy those are all great call outs there who are going to go very late in home leagues I was gonna say like the one adjustment I've made going from basball to these home leagues is the bench is so much shallower like so many of these guys don't get drafted because you've got kicker in defense and you've got you know 16 rounds instead of 18 or 20 and again two of those are Kicker defense so you're talking 14 rounds of skill players as opposed to 20 like there's a huge swath of players that we get excited about in bball that aren't even going to get drafted in in redraft and it makes you know use that waiver wire and the ability to reach out there to your advantage all right that is going to do it for our look at wide receivers for home League drafts this this season hope this was helpful for you remember if you want your continuously our continuously updated rankings to take to your draft you need draft kit Pro if you are serious you want Silva's matchups you want all our projections during the season you want to see all our shows during the season you need to get the bundle that combines draft kit Pro with in season on early bird right now for unlimited time four Evan four Leone for producer Luke for producer Ryan check us out for that ffpc draft on y on YouTube I am Adam good luck everybody