🤬 Starting Point of FAILURE 😡 What Most Fantasy Football Managers Get Wrong!!!

oh [ __ ] and welcome back hey we're taming out on Mondays today because we're coming up upon its draft season and we want you guys to have the absolute best information and one of the things that we're very proud of doing here on local football flavor is recognizing why most people fail at their leagues and Bob that's because they fail at the draft but they're even more so than that they're set up to fail because they the wrong starting information so what we're going to do is not only just outline why our information is better because it is and I'm not just saying this because oh I feel like I'm special or anything like that I'm saying this because we come up with a system that went 60% against the spread in overuns last year which the Hall of Fame number is 66% we had a results of 97% of our regulars winning their League championships we create winners here and the whole reason we're able to do that is because we use that's real and valid we use information from the betting markets that's able to be compiled so when we actually go through this we have every single week who is going to be the best player obviously it will adjust as the weeks go on and spreads change but we have that after the start and once you have that kind of great starting information it's an advantage and Edge that's unfold so Bob why don't we dive in to show a live example here of a real money down draft and get one fired up here so we can uh show in action what's going on here yeah and I mean to be honest Joe there's a lot of things where when you walk into a draft and it's really hard when you don't know how for example I just did my home League over uh over the weekend and my home league is very heavy um at running back there were in the first three rounds about 16 running backs taken and that includes in the first three rounds James Connor Joe Mixon things like that so even though you see certain positions and certain things there are times where you have to read the room right and I think as a fantasy manager that there are times where you don't read the room really well and because you might hype yourself up into a situation you might overdraft a couple people but the thing is when it comes down to it you've got to believe in the information that you have sure you have to know that that information is you know has its value right you know just looking taking a look uh real quick at fantasy football rankings from fantasy pros for week one here before you dive into that our our league is about to start so so we're going to reset and we'll be with you guys with the league on the other side mhm welcome to local football flavor connecting the fan bases of the NFL so all righty so Bob we jump in here we got a league starting here 30 pick seconds guy the clock here and boom we're gonna be the fourth pick yeah I I mean I'm all over I'm on Raw at that point to um because CD situation has been figured out and and and of that nature but back to the point I was making good for his check by the way um absolutely so I just as an example um when we look at week one of the fantasy season and this is coming from fantasy pros these are the top 11 players um in the running back category for fantasy pros maccaffrey bejan Bree saquin Taylor Gibbs Williams etn Henry Rashad white and Ken Walker and you look at this information and you see where they're projecting the points ahead so you can go through these things and you can see okay well week one if I'm looking for players I kind of am trying to and this is free information right so you're going out there you're trying to gather free information you're saying okay where are the guys projected to be at how can I walk into my draft and use this information to be better than somebody else right sure so let's take for example number 24 overall here zamir white zamir White's not not a player that we that's number 24 running back not number 24 24 24 running back on their list um 24th running back on the list is air white it's a player we don't believe in at all for very good reasons we haven't seen a lot out of him there's a good chance that he might turn into the Mike Davis of this year's draft where people are saying well he's the starter so I'm gonna you know I'm G to draft him and you kind of look at Players around his average for week one so I'm looking at guys that are David Montgomery n Harris Raheem moer zamir white Swift and single T those are the those are the players around him and I'm looking at I'm saying okay if I'm using this information and I'm seeing that okay week one it looks like he might average 10.8 and looking at what his point projected points for are for the year you can make some math right you can do the math and you can project for well if he's 10.1 this week and he's only Pro for what 180 or so points in full PPR or half PPR whatever you can kind of look out that maybe he's only going to get 10 points per week and the fluctuation for a player like this on a team like that isn't necessarily something that screams that I want that on my team in the fourth fifth sixth rounds so I see that you actually Bob you did a great job of hitting upon what the the today's topic is is is is that's flawed starting math looking at sure there's free information everywhere and by the way our guy just fell to us so I'm gonna jump on him here as we're talking about I think you have to you gotta take Cooper Cup right here um yeah absolutely but um but as we uh as we go here you have to look at broader picture game scripts matter and the league tells you with professional betters what the game scripts going to be you can get public information of the spreads and the right and when you look at this how the challenge again we do this here is compiling it into what they're going to be so what we have and this is the bigger issue that people have to deal with and this is a a flaw of the way that the industry is done by people who don't do math right is it's always what are the total points you're going to score that's how we should rank our What's the total points you're going to score that's not really the advantage sure caff's gonna score a ton of points ain't no one fighting that but what's the advantage is not at all how many weeks is this guy going to be the number one scorer because I or the chance to do that and that's the other thing is exctly when you're searching in the first and second round and Derrick Henry here absolutely um when you're searching in the first second and third round you you of course want to get guys with high floors and most of these guys in the first round have a high floor all of them them are relatively you know there's a couple variables within that injury is the biggest variable for all players sure but you look at and you say okay well like you just said how many times can my guy work their way up into the top five we can look at schedule but when we start looking at defenses there's a lot of defensive statistics are projectable and then there are some that aren't projectable for example going into last year we didn't really believe in anything that the Rams were going to throw out there on the field yet there were a lot of times where you know they were giving the ball they were stopping them and giving the ball right back to the offense so that the offense could storm right back down the field again and score again so you know when you look at these projections on a week- toe basis and you're looking at the end of the year and you want to have these good matchups to the end of the year relatively speaking Yeah the matchups against New England are probably going to be good the matchups against um maybe the Titans potentially could be good but we don't know so when we don't know something you basically have to believe the projection and believe in your player because there are players when you look at it that are better in the slot there are players that are better on the outside and there are teams that the total defensive um and this is what we get into in season right is that Chris Godwin might be great against the slot might be great in the slot but might not be good against this specific Defender on the edge so you got to look and can you scroll down so we can see the next part of the round absolutely sorry about that you got to look into it and you got to and you got to think to yourself well where are my advantages at and that and that starting point is those projections and seeing well how much are they projected for in these games going forward right so I'm G to pull up a couple players here but I I want to talk about this this pick here as you're pulling them up one of the things that we discussed was you have to read the room um and know what the other people are doing we have Coleman from Buffalo rank incredibly High yes we are not getting him back if we don't take him now because he will go on the turn to the guy who took the first pick given the fact that we have him rank so high and I trust the board I want it's a little high but that's okay I don't think we're getting him back I think we would you you we we can fight on that later but as the third receiver I still think it's a tremendous pick um and then I would like to take KD on the comeback on the next one and that's fine I I think that when we look at the room and Josh Allen is definitely there there's a good chance that he might have taken him on the fifth but yeah he definitely wasn't gonna get Coleman at 72 so that guy was going to take Coleman at 48 or 49 with the way that the with the way that the rankings are on wide receiver Coleman is I I'd like Rashi rice actually to tell you the truth um he went you rather have rice here instead of K no rice rice already went but I'm saying that that when it comes down to player rankings that I I really I really like rice and I think he's climbing in the rankings and based off of what I told you at the beginning of the Season realistically like you know rice is rice is amazing player oh he is um there's and you see Worley gets ding that's a so our the other thing we do with our rankings is we adjust them according to the other injuries around so worthy getting dinged rice not getting suspended are the two biggest reason he has flown up our our popularity boards all right so so we are a spot here an example as an example Joe this is why I don't like the Keon Coleman pick and this is why I think it's higher even though you're reading the board the the the read is a little bit off so he's we have as our receiver six and I don't think I was going to get him otherwise well he's ranked around ADP 116 um and so depending on how people feel about depending on how people feel about him on one stretch or another um the it's not something that I would be like hey you know that's not that's like a bad pick at all but I think that when we look at Keon Coleman and we look at the information that has come out about Keon Coleman is that there are going to be some Growing Pains there and it's going to be something in a really good offense the the the benefit to this is that he's in a really good offense and if he if he ends up getting that role we now have that we have that third wide receiver that's the luxury of getting cup and um I'm on Raw early that we can take a chance like that because when we look at the players that are coming down the turn look a round full of tight ends we got one of them which we got the one we ranked as tight end number one yeah but no but not really any player after that other than maybe Lamar Jackson can you scroll down more um would be a guy that we're missing out on right Jaden Reed I like Jaden Reed a lot that's the guy that you could be missing out on Xavier worthy romad dun are guys that are probably going to be coming back on this comeback right here that group read is by far the highest rated we have but we also he's as our receiver 17 but we also have 19 and 22 out there still so I would have also I I look at this again trusting the system we have Coleman as as receiver number six right now I oh no I'm not like I said Joe I'm not I'm not disagreeing with with your with your understanding of that situation because he is the wide receiver 45 on on the on ADP from fantasy pros right so if we take our system we look at what everybody else is using most people are using fantasy pros as adps to help them inform their opinions about a lot of things right so we're talking about starting points and failure and things like that right coming down the board right around the same point here where Keon colan is I mean you're reading the board how you need to right you have Jaden Reed Xavier worthy both of those guys just went Brian Thomas he's after Keon Coleman in terms of ADP on fantasy pros and around the same point of lad makoni which is probably gonna be our next pick here it is now it was gonna be Monte um so when you take two rookies B time out you you said you wanted to go out of our way to make sure we give another player we haven't talked about a lot like another back guy like that flew up boards um mostly due to injury around him is nausey um I'm okay with that and here's why AI is primed in this system to take off remember he now has Henry's coach um as his offensive coordinat same situation where King Henry became King Henry naji's running like crazy and Warren's hurt and I understand there's this great history of Warren where he has played through hammies when he was at the lower levels and he may a ham in the NFL so to your point here Joe is that getting this guy getting n on a run oriented offense in the sixth round a little bit earlier than we would normally take him um but we're not a True Believer in um Kamar there's a good chance that he could do really well and I would bet that that that that would be moster right there passing on makoni to get the double running back because we started with only one running back yeah there where you play this system at you know you play it so that you can collect your guys right and moster and N are the next basically the next running backs off the board after Montgomery you've got Stevenson somewhere in there you've got Aaron Jones somewhere in there I'm not sure if he was select ni isn't our highest running back that was available because our running back six is still available we're probably going to end him get him on the roster but he was the next up for ADP so playing the room yeah and this is a draft that maybe lad Falls a little bit more maybe he doesn't and that's okay because what we started with is we started with two solid wide receivers that we can now take a little bit of risk a little bit of reward as well in that wide receiver room and and the other thing that we did which is tremendously beneficial with the particular two that we start with which was a ma and cup those two quarterbacks were cheap so we didn't have to chase quarterback early we're able really to load up some spaces here where we should be able to get um pretty much a perfect setup here that goes Moss Cooks Goff and Stafford um and probably have another stud in there between gol and Stafford I would definitely yeah I'd definitely like to have um a little bit more in the wide receiver room and I think that we have a couple more wide receivers that we do like coming down the pipeline soon well yeah cook Cooks will be coming up at pick 100 Cooks Cooks will be a good you know I've seen him climb up boards because of what people had been saying about CD lamb but now that CD lamb has signed I think he's value is going to stabilize a little bit more and we wouldn't have to we wouldn't have to round we wouldn't have to take him any more than you know we would normally take him in any other league well you know what here's another thing we can try to do because it looking at I'm all about looking in the future about where the spots are we could go Moss than Dak and try to stack Woods at7 uh because Woods is everything you just said Woods starting to simmer down a little bit his ADP already is Oh you mean Cooks you mean Cooks yeah yeah sorry yeah so this pick would be Moss regardless or this this pick would be be moss and then the next one would be Dak yeah I'd be okay with that I I definitely you know I'm definitely not so I like sta I might be saying that backwards as I'm looking at adps here um Moss isn't anywhere near the running backs coming up so we're not gonna take him on this one I don't think we need I don't think we need to you know rush but we will need to take you know who I'd like to take a chance on um even if it means passing on Dak I think that Romeo dos is a guy that when we look at when we look at lists and we look at projections going forward he's definitely someone who is reliable is an asset in the red zone and is on a past happy team granted they have a ton of other but he is now would be our fourth wi receiver we pair him up with Cooks right here and we do DOS and cooks that basically settles our wide receiver room down I knows a moss okay that's fine I'm definitely okay with something like that because when you're looking when you're looking here at wide receivers in this range what I'm targeting is is players that are going to be on high-powered offenses that are going to get opportunities right and you're looking at the why receivers that are going in this round DeAndre Hopkins his opportunities could be there they looked really good in the pre season uh Tennessee's passing game looked pretty good in the preseason there you look at Josh Palmer opportunities are going to be there for he's never coming up the field either Chargers wide receivers Addison there's going to be opportunities there with Sam darnold how many we don't know but out of all those wide receivers in that round dos has a very good chance on the outside in two wide receiver sets three wide receiver sets the two mostly to really put up some good numbers and you know we took we by taking dos there we don't take Prescott we do have a couple things in our back pocket in terms of the quarterback situation well we have our first and second receivers stacking and that's another thing that most people don't do in their home leagues but it's incredibly beneficial if you have a stud that you know you were playing week in week out like a mo like Cooper cup stacking them is an incredibly powerful tool um it really gives you a competitive advantage that a lot of people don't um because they say I don't want to have so many players from the same team well stacking the quarterback and the receiver is not a detriment just it would be a detriment say if you took a chain and Hill because only one of the two of them are gonna score a touchdown for Miami Joe I know I I want to stop you there for a moment I know we have cooks and and um I know we have cooks and Myers ranked really really high um in terms of our wide receivers and dos is our wide receiver 41 but I'm making the case for him because when I look at all the wide receivers above him on our list like Court courland Sutton potentially DJ sh CH Tyler Lockett um most of those are the guys that haven't been taken yet right courland Sutton just went but I'm looking at guys ahead of him that already went Pitman Wilson Collins flowers Brian Thomas NCA London he is not far down this list when it comes to wide receivers and we're sitting here with them as our fourth option on a team that he might not even have to play in our roster on a week- toe basis but his opportunities are going to be enough to be there that say he gets 60 yards five receptions and and two touchdowns he's probably GNA crack that lineup fairly um you know with a game like that and that's all we're all we're asking for is upside with a little little bit of potential to be a weekly starter that that's exactly it you know you look at these players again it all comes down to what are you going to be each week a and that's the most important part because yeah in basball we we we're shaded a little bit more because you want the super explosions but it really comes down to when we build this roster each week are we gonna win are we gonna be is my receiver gonna put up more than the other guy that's how you should do your rankings right and we look at that there's so many sources out there that don't they just look at what is your total points going to be quite frankly that's incredibly lazy and not profitable like just because you're going to blow up one week against the Dolphins because you always blow up against the Dolphins looking at you uh um blank I'm blanking on the name of the running back from uh from New England it's his best week every year what he here here's Cooks yeah or Myers it's gonna be Cooks okay actually let's take Meyers because we can't get back and we have them basically ranked at the same spot I'm okay with that I I like that plan and then the pick after this will be GF that makes sense because we do need a that quarterback and a lot of the quarterbacks are coming off the board already and you know these two guys on the turn here already took a quarterback so the likelihood that they'll take another one right here took party though that's the lineup with dvo right and that and that's fine um isn't that the lineup with auk because Debo's a little bit further it's auk sorry that that that's lamb iuk is what he built there so the other guy has Josh Allen um I doubt he takes golf here I I highly doubt it if he does a little bit screwed but not too not too bad and Stafford's not the worst constellation prize in the world and this is to say too scroll down a little bit and this is to say too that like both goth and Stafford are guys that have the potential to throw for 30 plus touchdowns and yeah it's not sexy yeah it's probably they're probably not going to be be the quarterback one on on a week- toe basis but there is a slight chance that both those quarterbacks can put up a quarterback one set of numbers in a week right absolutely I mean you have you have Jared G only plays out only sees the sun outside as a professional football player twice this year here's the thing about GF you have his you have all of his weapons being drafted in the first through third round essentially except for David Montgomery when you look at Matt Stafford you have all of his weapons being drafted in the first two rounds so much if if these guys are going to do good they're gonna have to do good because of those quarterback that quarterback play and hey if if if we're not chasing if we're not chasing the running quarterbacks which technically do have the most value if we're not chasing those and we're not chasing Patrick Mahomes because we took Rashid rice early we're not chasing um you know Josh Allen or anybody like that we're putting ourselves into a decent situation here we'll probably have to take Stafford on the comeback here um in so far as I think we'll be able to get Stafford on the second look just looking at everyone P this taking a quarterback what's the room look like for the third and the first so the guy with the first pick overall his team is Allen mcaffrey saquan MO look that switched to mine um guy on the first team has Allen I just saw two quarterbacks go yep yep you did and one of them was Stafford so we can't do anything about that that's okay puka the guy who has puka took Stafford that makes sense that makes sense so that being said we look at our best quarterbacks remaining on the board um gon be hard to pair up Baker in any meaningful way um Sam darnold we don't have a viking okay so we'll be I mean so I this is where we look at best available man and our best available right now is nowhere near coming up upon the depth chart um alir would be the next closest one although with quarterbacks running um you know I might want to take Baker and try to figure out how to make a pick out of it you know what I want to take will Levis what um I want to take doing it but I'm not liking it I want to take will Levis um and that's before dark side even said that I was looking up and here's why so when we look at the board and we see where we have Levis rank that's very very low but the guy isn't going to come out of the game okay yeah now when we look at when we look at ideally Stafford would have been the guy you can take Tyler alir on the turn here so we can so we can discuss this he's got it's gonna be alir or or Michael Wilson yeah that's then that's fine that's okay and you know what here's the other thing which one you want it's a choice I like uh we're staying at four we're g we're gonna take Wilson because we're gonna definitely gonna take justice Hill late and I don't want to have six running back um so here's here's my case for Levis and granted um granted he's not your favorite guy and we have them pretty low in the rankings here's my case for Levis number one the offensive line has gotten a tad bit better number two they've made a commitment to passing the ball everything that we have definitely did everything we have seen we have they have made the commitment to pass B and it not looking at last year looking at this year they have if when all healthy they have three pretty good options in the wide receiver Market they have a really good option in the tight end Market they have two running backs that can catch the ball and run after the catch right so when I look at this quarterback situation and we've never picked will Lis on our team it's never been an option that we've gone to and it's not something that you like and it's something that maybe you want to take bonck a little bit later or maybe you want to take you know Sam darnold or anybody like that they me you're late we're um and it's not a stack and and it's not a stack we've ever built and we've you know we've been against it pretty much but when I say that there's value there there's a lot of potential value there let's take a look at his let's take a look at his markets right and see week one where he where his rank is okay so he's sitting here against the Chicago Bears his week one rank is 25 right below Danny dim below Gino Smith it is what it is Chicago has a pretty decent defense his projected fantasy points is 15.7 points right he has rushing upside there's a good chance that he throws for at least two touchdowns we're not really worried about the interceptions because quite frankly we're probably going to golf is probably going to be in our lineup a lot right with GF there we can take a chance and I'm going to filter by team here and get Tennessee while you take a look at this all right so we have here will Levis has the potential to have 266 projected points and this is from draft sharks with a ceiling of 355 points okay so there's a 100 Point variation within that within that game to play with right his his projected points for game one was 15.7 right so through a 17 Game season let me get my calculator out here do some quick maths sorry hold on again the reason we're showing you the math this way which is not the way we do it by the way is to let you see what other people are looking at and how they do with their free information this is how you get advantages this is just this is just with the free information right I'm not a fan of that khil Herbert pick Bob I'm big on him I like khil Herbert a lot but we're at the back end here where I have my six guys to finish out and ADP doesn't matter so I'm just F buy ADP what we're looking at here is a player if if we do if we go through the just the quick math that the draft sharks has put out for us and we say okay well he's going to project 266 points fantasy Pro says that he's going to get 15.7 points week one that that's should be about his average over the course of the given season so proably if we were to take a look at his at his standard deviations right and I'm gonna pull that up right now too I have to move my iPad for a moment um if we were to pull up his standard deviations and say okay where does he fall in terms of this information well you know his weekly rank for us might not be very very high but when I come back when I come back and I look through and I say okay where is his best like his best and wor worst week potential here um so let me go to Levis because he's going to be lower because he didn't play the full season last year and his standard devation was approximately 7.8 last year with a CO with with a coefficient of 66 so he averaged 11 points last year they're suspecting that he might grow four more points a game at 15 points but with a ceiling like he has 355 points so if he manages to to go to his ceiling over a 17 game split here we're looking at a player sorry I'm using something on Bing for some reason my computer just showed up Bing we're looking at we're looking at a player that if they hit that ceiling of 355 that average pulls out to about 20 so there's a there's a big disparity between his numbers and when we're looking this low in the draft for a quarterback all the pieces are there for Success every single piece that we have there's a potential for success there with Will Lis and to be able to grab somebody like that although it's not somebody that we project very high in our personal rankings with a disparity that wide when we're looking for a quarterback it is worth taking a chance on there there's nothing wrong with that I mean it's the logic is sound Bob there there is no way around that and we've taken a chance on other guys that you know projection wise that we could especially down low like this like we've taken a chance on B knck before we've taken a chance on Baker Mayfield before all of these guys are in the similar situations they have weapons how do they use them Baker Mayfield again his projection is 267 with a ceiling of 339 so those two quarterbacks are really close in terms of what the projections are that you can see for free that's right um I'm gonna be thinking another guy here um that you know again this is this is not someone I probably have in my normal League um but because it's baseball you do it um because there's a super high explosive option Assuming he's still on the board haven't had a chance to talk about him much this year at all and that's jonu Smith um jonu Smith can fly he's in the right situation in Miami and quite frankly he might be their third receiver um so I look at that and just go hey that's worth looking into yeah I think so too there goes it doesn't matter talk about him and then gets drafted yeah I mean when we look at our board too he's another guy a little bit further down the list um in terms of tight ends but has a lot of potential value in an offense that uses its weapons really really well and speaking of offenses that that use their weapons I mean Mike geki Mike geki on on um on the Bengals potential for success you even have a guy like Dawson Knox if we go a little bit round later dton Kade is being projected to get the starting workload but Dawson Knox is still there and Dawson Knox is still a valuable asset to the Buffalo to the Buffalo Bills um oh if you're looking for a late round tight end glad you're starting to come around on him think you I was around on him a couple weeks after you start first started talking about him because there's a lot of value in a player like that where if you're projecting that big workload for do for Dalton concade especially in baseball here where you have the options to you you're not going to be able to change your team on a week toe basis I'm not worried about what Dawson Knox is going to do on a week- toe basis because if dton King K goes down he's the next up and he's the very clear next up on a team that loves to use the tight end and you know I'm not looking at I'm not looking at will disle right from the Chargers because I'm not sure if they're going to how they're going to use to tight end I'm not really looking at um I'm not really looking at Pat farmouth anymore um I just think there's just so such a low projectable floor there that it's not even worth it yeah the Steelers AR gonna score that that's just the issue there man yeah and and you know guys like guys like yeah I'm okay see that's the type of stuff that yeah you got me dirty doing will Levis I had to make a stack with him you could have taken uh Tyler Boyd I don't want Tyler Boyd hey two wide receivers ahead of him that are off to get injured right I get that but I know chig never comes out the field yeah there's been information that they're excited about chig they could be trying to get another tight end there in the Woodwork as well but I think that when you look at Players like we said do they have a potential to get a number one week at their position Jake got a number one position or got a number one ranking at his position last year so you know you might say oh I don't like it and it's dirty it's for sure very very dirty but he did get a tight end one and that was in the playoffs right so he won people he won people money last year a lot sure did right um yeah dark side that the tight ends the tight ends are in committee but I mean chig is a really good player so in terms of what we get from tight ends it's also my 17th round pick I already have George kiddo on the roster yeah and they have Josh wild Josh W is the other um is the other tight end that they're projecting that's going to get a lot of uh a lot of play this year we'll see right we'll see and if we're wrong on chig we're wrong but again KD I believe our team already our team at the end of the 12th round was set um you know at that point we had we in this who are we taking in this last round Joe uh Foreman Foreman uh chub's not playing this year guys I mean we we we just need to accept that chub's not F quite frankly Ford sucks and foran by default W to being the number one rusher in Forman big number but he will be so Foreman just went off off with a rib injury he he with how bad of a rate of injury won't practice won't practice tomorrow if there's no implication of missing week one he's fine well even if he does I I think he doesn't have a really good projections like really good like projectable that's because so many people still think chub is coming back no no no I'm not saying Pro I'm not saying projections forward I'm saying in terms of like what he's done in the past he's definitely capable of getting some touchdowns and the Browns offense should move the ball um again they've already had plenty of injuries to this running back room it's not a bad call taking taking a running back from this running back room because who knows who's G to stay healthy right that's the thing and the other part is is is with the four starters we have of Henry Nai moer Moss um Henry he got I think he missed two games last year and the year before he didn't miss any nj's never missed a start uh moster to Miami has been surprisingly healthy [Music] so I like this receiving room too of course anytime you start with a m cup you're starting off Great's a guy we love we have three stacks Joe two super dirty Stacks but three stacks and these these Stacks have the potential to really pave the way for winning best Ball Mania because you look at and you say I want differences on my teams I want I want players that have the potential for a a week like a number one week I want the potential for a top five week that's what's just imagine this scenario the the the the playoffs start here in week 15 Devonte Adams says says you know what you guys aren't going to you guys don't want to trade me when I want it I'm I'm sitting out with this hangnail for the last four games yeah Kobe Meyers could win you a league in that situation and the thing is Garner muu he might not have the job all year there's a good chance that he might not so oh there's zero chance unless he gets hurt he's not losing that job there's potential he's you know but no like the thing is in something like this in something like best Bowl when I look at the quarterbacks being drafted off the board right Garner muu either comes off as one of the last players or not at all oh yeah right so if you have him on your team and he ends up putting up two rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns in a game and ends up as qb1 for the week because he can do that um can't he's a volatile guy there's a good chance and and here's the thing I'm gonna make the case for this Joe when we come back and when we look at um when we look at Gardner muu stats from last year they're not sexy by any stretch of the imagination we said they're very similar in terms of passing as a no Connell had we we did this a couple we did this exercise a couple of weeks ago um and so you look at his rushing stats from last year he rushed in three touchdowns in his career in the games that he's played and started he has a total of five rushing touchdowns he had over a 100 yards rushing last year so while it's not um yeah we're going to keep doing DFS content during the year two dark side um pick pick DFS we're gonna be doing it um probably an episode a day or we're g to try to try to get in an episode a day um when it comes down to DFS we do like to do DFS on Thursdays a lot um yeah the DFS is normally our Thursday day because it's in preparation with the whole whole league schedule um we definitely going be doing our long show still on Tuesday we're adding in this shorter one here today so you're not going to have us until 6 today um shorter one today and Thursday this week just you know getting ready for the drafts and you know Bob as we conclude this and actually start winding down on this episode so let let's stay let's stay on for for a little bit here to just kind of talk about some strategies and some things well that's where I want to go yeah yeah that's exactly talking about at the top of the hour so when when we look and you know the name of this EP so does starting point failure what most fantasy managers get wrong and when we look at it it's there's a couple things right a couple things go wrong one you see a resource you look at uh Twitter you look at X you look at Tik Tok and one guy really likes a guy and so now all of a sudden you get that in your head that you have to like that guy and so you start pushing that guy up your rankings and you push him up so much that you kind of ruin the Integrity of the team that you are trying to build right so say it's a wide receiver you start pushing that wide receiver because you're like oh wide receivers are going fast you start pushing them pushing them pushing them up your board you take them and then by the time it comes back to you you might not have enough you know situational advantage to now control what's around you anymore because you went with what the crowd was doing everybody sees this information everybody knows that certain creators like audre estimate everybody knows certain creators like BJ Robinson everybody knows that certain creators are now up on Brian Thomas that's a known fact we all absorb the same or similar content what is going to give you that competitive Advantage is how are you taking that content and then applying say your advantage in terms of your home league right so if your if your home League drafts a lot of running backs early like mine does 16 you can't take all wide receivers to start the draft or you're going to be at a at a definite disadvantage my home league is three wide receiver starts two running back starts and two flexes so when you look at it and it's 75 points per receptions so you look at it and you say okay well I've got to play to my room when you're on with people you don't know it's hard to know that but what what you have to assume is that the people you are on best ball drafts with you got got to assume that people that you're on in sleeper drafts with are taking in the same exact content as you their boards are almost very very similar to yours and no matter how much you want to shake it almost everybody's down on moster almost everybody's down on certain players at some point during the season right was down Henry when they should to be well I was just taking in some content today and the Creator um was really was like was like oh yeah I was down on them early but now I'm back I was down on this player early now I'm back I was up on this player early now I'm back so all of his best ball teams are looking very much different than one another which is fine and we talked about um one of the guys we drafted in Cooper cup is that in June you were taking Cooper cup in the third round and that was great but you can't do that anymore and if you want Cooper cup and you're at the top half of the of the first of the first round looking at the second round turn and he's best player on the board you take your best player on the board that's right regardless if you don't if you don't think that Garrett Wilson is gonna have a good year don't make somebody tell you that Garrett Wilson's gonna have a good year if you're Bor and your stats that are backing up your board I'm gonna take that opportunity to tell you Garrett Wilson's not gonna have a good year um don't take them right he's high on other people's boards he might not be on yours but here's where that Advantage is at Joe is that when we look at the best ball and we look at where are their places to get competitive advantages at everybody's aware of the rookies this year nobody's hiding nobody's hiding these rookies anywhere under the belt they're going higher right you could last year you could get rice and tank out like really really late you're not getting lad really late lad Brian Thomas Keon Coleman all flying up the boards when you're when you're drafting in baseball one of the biggest things other than diversifying your portfolio this is the first time we've taken will L diversify the portfolio M but one of the biggest mistakes and one of the things that managers really need to clean up is the fact that they're taking the same players when other people are taking those same players for example saquin Barkley and Jonathan Taylor in June were being drafted back like at that turn if you had the 12 pick you were getting saquan you were getting JT mhm now you can't get those players together in some leagues in bestow you can kind of get them still again but taking them gives you zero Advantage because you have you have now just took your your first two picks and those first two picks are on 24 to 60,000 other teams that's right that have entered into this competition and so in order for you to win your best players who are other people's best players is now you're winning through your khil herberts now you're winning through your Brandon Cook's and if you're not which means they have to outscore the starters which means they have to outscore those starters exactly which then puts you at a disadvantage because now saying you drafted JT and saquin on the next turn you're probably going well I need to get I need to get two wide receivers or I need to get your team becomes very projectable now now I'm going after Michael Pitman well Michael Pitman is probably on 12 thousand of those teams you aren't giving your chance you aren't giving yourself a good chance to win now the odd and that's what I love about a the fact that our list are we've been true to them sure we have a lot of our own teams that are overlapped but you are not goingon to find a lot of people who who have the same builds as us I mean just go off our first our first five picks here show the board cup Henry Coleman and KD you don't find that combination yeah and and when we when we look at it Joe um you know especially in those middle rounds is where you kind of want to spread spread the spread the love spread the pot around and you know taking a guy for example like dos or Reed and not so and this is something I'm saying I'm not suggesting this is something you should do but I think it's something to look at is that every every single content creator including ourselves pushes Stacks we always want to get at least one stack on our team which is yeah you need to but what stack is it how is it paired with the players that you already have because guaranteed out of everybody that has taken Lamar Jackson the stack that has been built is either Lamar Zay or Lamar Mar Andrews and that's going to be your spread on the Lamar on the Lamar pick so you're going to probably have 30% on Lamar and Z you're probably going to have about 40% on Lamar and Andrews and then you're gonna have that other 30% unstack Lamar now that unstack Lamar at 30% does it give you a better chance to win maybe not but it definitely allows you that unique capacity to your team because you haven't built that same stack with that stack goes off you're probably not making it to the championship game anyway but if it does if it doesn't and say Andrews goes down and Lamar ends up finding baitman you've now kind of spread the board out where you're not locked in so when we talk about failure and we talk about mistakes it's not realizing things like that is that it's not realizing that 40,000 other people have already built Caleb Williams and roma Doomsday and you have to beat those 40,000 other people with Caleb andun does good it's that fact that the Pacho owner isn't stacking Pacho with momes because that's an unrealistic stack you're you know you're putting your eggs all in one basket that might not be there but the fact that the you know the unstacked the unstacked Rashi rice with Patrick momes is probably only on what 40% of teams 30% of teams as a wild number the unstacked position player and I get to this point because we just didn't unstack Romeo dobs Romeo dobs could be nothing but Romeo dobs if he goes off and ends up getting six seven touchdowns in a year he's probably gonna crack our lineup at least two three times if he does something like that and you know Jordan love is going to spread the ball around and people are fading all those Packers WI receivers well now we might have the best one not saying he is but I'm saying we might have the best one he's he's unstacked right which then opens our team up a little bit more to that uniqueness category a and the broader point of all this is that you have to have the sharp picks I mean because at the end of the day which stack is the one that's G to work the one that that ends up having Sidi and Dak that's the best stack you can have cidd is the number one receiver dak's the number three quarterback end the discussion um so that's why CD to me is without a doubt the second pick overall in this draft you can make an argument for Tyreek being able to beat CD there's never an argument that Tua can take out back it's not even close so no I mean even the best stack is CD and Dak I mean it's not close yeah even just looking at the rankings in terms of fantasy points per game you're looking at and this is just from fantasy pros again free free information uh Dak is projected to get week one 20 points Tua is projected to get 16.7 points the re the reason Dak and CD are so you know lined up with one another is CD is projected to get 19.7 points Tyreek is projected to get pardon me 19.8 points you look at the disparity in those numbers you're losing out on about four points um through your Dak versus Tua connection because Tua can diversify his portfolio a little bit more Dak likes Cooks but if CD's open he's throwing the ball to CD lamb I mean that that's kind of the kind of the long and short of it there Joe and you know another point to make before we go in the next couple of minutes here is um the baby's sleeping so that's why I'm kind of on a little bit a little bit more um is looking at and seeing okay I'm coming down the list here on on fantasy pros again just kind of looking around and one of the players that we're we're down on and it was a player we were we were up on last year is a guy like Stefan digs now this is a player that we do do not recommend drafting um again you can listen to us how you will but this a guy like Diggs he's in a a high powerered offense which is something we T we love players in high powerered offenses but the the question mark for us here is not the fact that is there going to be production it is production based upon where you are needing to pick him and how you need to build him right is that a lot of a lot of people that are taking Diggs or Dell or Nico and I have St in Nico and I have I believe I have some stock in Dell as well but you want to build CJ Stout but CJ Stout isn't the best quarterback available when he needs to be drafted and so why am I going to want to build this stag if you know we look at CJ strout's numbers from last year and it's phenomenal for a rookie right um but I I I see it and I say to myself okay okay 2023 you had games at 15 points you had a blowup game at 41 points then another blowup game at 30 points but you're Pro you're he was around 15 to 20 points every week minus those two blowup games we love blowup games right sure when I look at it and I say to myself do I want to draft him where did CJ stra go by the way in the draft that we just did the draft that we just did CJ Stout went 78 overall which is 76 okay so seventh round taking CJ St now you've just invested probably you've taken Diggs Del or Nico maybe two of the three so you've just invested three of your top seven picks that Houston's going to double back and do that again right and it's hard then then you're not counting the other pieces is that if you take two plus plus Dr you also got mix in there who's going to probably get more touchdowns on the go line you also still have dton Schultz there who's also still going to get some touches in the red zone as well and so projecting out a guy like Diggs means that you have to build St and I get that you would want to do that in order to diversify your portfolio but there's a very good chance that Diggs is never going to be a top five never has the chance to be a top five wide receiver injuries happen if an injury happens he has a he has a decent enough chance to be a wide receiver one on the team but when you look at and you say well you know why Diggs instead of Noah Brown Noah Brown 17th round 18th round 16 I can get him Pennies on the dollar I don't have to invest the the the high draft capital in a guy like Diggs although he is a good enough player but it's all about looking at that and saying well like okay well like you said like you said while we were drafting Joe right is I'm looking at the board I want to take Keon colan and I said I think it's a little early you're like yes it is a little bit early but the guy behind me has Josh Allen so I'm looking over my head at him right and then coming back around if I don't take him I have to now watch as 22 picks Roll by again until I get him and yeah he won't come back when he went Joe when we in the rounds on the comeback reading that room exactly right you saw all the rookies go all those rookies go so if we wouldn't have taken him there's a fairly good chance that yes he would have been off the board and just speaking to the last Point here he's such a powerful asset for us yeah and speaking to the last Point here is tight ends um you know we we here on on the show we love some of those top tight ends you know especially especially the George KD and the Evan Ingram right those are two tight ends that we were really high on at the beginning of June we were pushing Ingram a lot through our teams we were getting Ingram in the fifth sixth round through our teams he's risen up more and the value isn't there for us in say the fourth round or the fifth round so much we were often getting him in the seventh round actually to tell you the truth um right after lad mononi in the six we were kind of pushing that we were also getting Ingram a lot too though um yeah we were getting Ingram the other we need to point out we're doing this Underdog Underdog is half PPR Ingram is so much higher on full PPR absolutely um and so I just wanted to bring this up Joe is that tight ends and this was a this was like a weird stat from last year is that no tight end scored outside of Sam lorta um scored over six touchdowns last year um pretty low floor other than K so it was KD it was KD and leapor that got six or more touchdowns Kelsey didn't get to six um Kelsey got to five oh see that that's that's low man so njoku and KT also got to six Andrews got to six but no no and H Hunter Henry got to six those players way further down this list right we understand the commitment to uh njoku is he's not he's high on our boards but in the whole totality of the Cleveland team we're not huge with Watson plus ninj right so you look at this and you say to yourself okay well Travis Kelce has the potential to go off but he's older TJ hackinson was hurt Evan Ingram was sitting around there at four touchdowns so he made most of his money in receptions you're just sitting here and you're saying well where's my where could my potential value be well you have a guy sitting here in Hunter Henry six touchdowns 419 yards on a team doesn't really have a wide receiver like they have a wide receiver room but it's very muddled why not take a pass catcher there you're looking at a guy like Dallas Gard hurt last year still got six touchdowns almost 600 yards and then the guy you mentioned Joe jonu Smith jonu Smith last year four touchdowns 58 yards on a much better offense now this offense is going to be efficient and then even even coming down here to guys like Tyler higgy we like Kobe Parkinson for the start of the Season he's gonna higgy's hurt Kobe Parkinson's gonna play um so you look at you say okay you know he he had two touchdowns last year almost 500 yards Kobe Parkinson's a pretty good player as well anything can happen there and then chig we took chig this draft 77 receptions almost 600 yards and a touchdown the reason I bring this up is that while it's very sexy to go after a double tight end early to make your team unique right yeah unique I've done it in a couple drafts just for just because the only reason I did it was because I'm sitting there at in like pick N9 through 12 and you've got to do something to make yourself stand out in terms of the draft right yeah you got to figure out a way to do it but you're looking at it you're saying okay well historically speaking I'm going to go back to 2022 as well and there were the max touchdowns there was 12 and 11 who who appears again George KD appears again you go back um to 2021 the other thing with K that I love about him is is he will give you an explosion game where he just wipes the floor oh yeah absolutely um but the other reason I bring this up Joe is that George KD six touchdowns in 2021 Dawson Knox nine Hunter Henry nine um and then continue to go down as you know as the years go on who appears again jonu Smith eight touchdowns on the year so well Smith's on a completely different team now he's on miam I get it I'm there with you but what I'm what I'm sharing more so is that there is so much vol uity I mean Robert tunan had 11 touchdowns a couple years ago right we haven't seen the guy again so there's a high degree of volatility in this tight end position that nobody nobody truly has maximized that over the course of the last couple of Seasons outside of Travis Kelce George KD and um Mark Andrews and T.J hackinson right so you look at this and you say okay well where do I invest at where am I where am I going to go in at and to be honest with you if you don't get G and you don't want to invest in Kelsey just wait wait because while I do like Evan Ingram his price is too high now um and I'm not I'm not buying in on it but like you know and even gaseki here gaseki all those years back with Miami six touchdowns um you know I just bring it up because it's important to note that you don't have to you don't have to Chase dton con k you don't have to chase Trey McBride well they might have phenomenal Seasons coming down the pipeline for them um you know yeah this isn't Dynasty you don't have to chase it and if you are chasing if you are chasing it just understand you know like you know we're looking we're looking here at we're looking here at Trey McBride last year 106 targets eight 825 yards three touchdowns and you can get a guy like Jake Ferguson two rounds later and he had five touchdowns in 761 yards and a much better situation around the same targets so I mean I'm not I'm not buying I'm not pressuring myself into it so what most fantasy managers get wrong is they start seeing those tight ends fly off the board and say well I got to take any one of them who's next who's the next ADP tight end and if he doesn't fit your team don't take him like that's right I'm sitting there I'm sitting there in my Reg last night um and or in the afternoon and you know coming back around I was like oh I want George KD well George KD George KD and Evan Ingram went in the fourth round top of the fourth round right ahead of my pick and I'm like okay next next category right and then you see and then you see the guy coming around at the back half of the I believe um sixth or seventh round or something that and they and they were like how's this player still there and they were confused and it was Trey McBride and we're like well some people forgot about him honestly and then other people are just like I'd rather have other players that's right somebody else and so don't you know don't get yourself caught up in in the run and and trying to get if he's If he if if he doesn't fit your stat profile if he doesn't fit your team there's other options that's right that's exactly right so with that being said team players we appreciate you watching make sure you guys click subscribe we're going to be with you here coming up a whole lot more obviously our normal Tuesdays out late um but we also be with you again Thursday of this week and then as we get ready for the season we're going to be coming at you more and more regularly so we look forward to being with your team players let's make some winners let's go make some money