FIRST ALERT: Tropical development possible in the Caribbean and Gulf (09/01/24)

e well good afternoon this is your Sunday afternoon look at what's going on out in the tropics this is meteorologist Aaron Colby where we'll be taking a quick look at exactly what's going on out in the tropics and exactly what you can expect here in south Mississippi and elsewhere across some of the area now you can take a look here this is the tropical Outlook as of uh just a few hours ago this is uh usually updated about every 4 hours or so and take a look at this we do have three different areas that we are keeping a close eye on now the first of which is right here in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Texas and Louisiana this area has been continuing to produce a lot of rainfall this is the low pressure system we've been tracking for a couple days now and you can see here still a lot of rain rotating around the center of this system still not very well organized there's still a very low chance that this could develop into a tropical system now regardless of if it does develop or not we will be seeing a lot of rainfall even as we go into the next couple of days a lot of the Gulf Coast has already seen about 3 to 5 Ines of rain and about another 3 to 5 in on the way for especially some areas like the Texas coast Louisiana coast has gotten most of the rain from this already the next 5 days down to about an inch or two now here in south Mississippi we definitely will continue to see quite a bit of rainfall from this system going into the rest of this week you can see here for our Inland areas about 1 to two inches of rain still on the way and then take a look closer to the coast there still a lot of that heavier rain or longer periods of rain still continuing about another two to three possibly even 4 Ines of rain especially if you go just a little bit offshore now let's move on to the next area now this is just off the coast of Africa you can actually see here on the satellite these red and pink colors that's actually another tropical wave that is beginning to emerge off the African Coast now this is expected to turn a little bit towards the north into that yellow area there is a low chance of development associated with this tropical wave once again this will be moving out into the Atlantic not expected to really do too much if it does form there is no threat to land at least in the next 10 days or even more than that now this is the tropical wave we've been keeping a very close eye on over the past couple of days still very disorganized at the moment but is continuing to move into the Caribbean and we're going to keep a very close eye on this one now once again no imminent threats to south Mississippi and we'll just keep a very close eye on it as it does move through the Caribbean there's still a lot of unknowns associated with this system and let's take a closer look exactly at what that looks like and you can see here once we get into about uh next weekend we can see this system move into the Western Caribbean close to Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula and what could happen is well this high pressure system just to its Northeast will really begin to drive it either to the North or further to the West this really does depend on how strong the high pressure system gets a stronger high would push this a lot further out to the West a weaker high would allow this to curve a little bit to the north and of course the strength of the system itself could also vary and could also determine exactly how or when it does make that curve so that's something we'll keep a pretty close eye on some forecast models have tried to place this into the Gulf of Mexico however a lot are starting to lean more towards pulling it out to the West with a stronger high pressure system so just something you keep an eye on once again this is more than 5 to seven days out so it's going to be kind of a waiting game at this point we're trying to see one if this develops at all and two exactly where the placement and the strength of those high pressure systems so here's what we do know for sure it is very likely to be near or just south of Cuba by about next weekend still way too early to know any impacts anything like the track and the potential strength still up in the air at the moment but of course as of right now there is no imminent threats to the United States or anywhere along the Gulf Coast we'll continue to monitor for updates as we continue to track this once it moves into the central Caribbean we should begin to learn a lot more information so that will be coming in about the next four to five days for now it's best to just make sure you have your plan ready you always want to keep that plan ready especially now that we are in September we're nearing the peak of hurricane season so review that plan make sure you're ready to go in case anything such as this system or any others behind it do end up coming into the Gulf but as of right now no imminent threats to anywhere on the Gulf Coast now as of right now we have seen a fairly active start to the season you can see here here's what's happened so far we've already made it all the way through the eame Ernesto we've had three hurricanes so far and Barrel becoming a major hurricane way back at the beginning of summer so a fairly active start to the hurricane season however we have been fairly quiet over the past couple of weeks we have begun to see just a little bit more activity which is normal as we do head into the months of September and October but for now once again no imminent threat to south Mississippi still no major threats to the United States and we will be keeping a close eye on these three areas that we did talk about today for