Weather and tropics forecast with Meteorologist Taylor Graham

e e e all right good afternoon south Mississippi meteorologist taylorr here giving you a quick update on the forecast plus we're going to be looking at what's going on in the tropics in the next 5 to 10 minutes or so if you've spent any amount of time outside today you know just how hot it is and spoiler alert it's going to stay really hot and really humid over the next several days I know that's what we expect for this time of the year but if you're going to be working outside day in day out just a heads up that your body may be under some of that stress thanks to all of that heat so hot and humid that's the main story for the short term down the road we will be watching for some tropical development possibly in the Bahamas and the Atlantic no immediate threats to the Gulf Coast at this time but for the time being it is just plain old hot and humid so we'll go ahead and take a look at what's going on in the forecast first things first we are still under that heat advisory today that lasts until 7:00 this evening temperatures are in the mid90s for the most part this afternoon heat index at times is going to be close to 110 and it seems like we're seeing some of those temperatures right now mainly in the mid90s even for those of us on the coast even seeing some upper 90s it looks like 97 the hot spot near Pas coua and Moss Point little cooler if you want to say cooler over in Bay St Louis right now coming in at 88 but the high humidity is not helping us out at all it's beautiful to look at on our Tower cameras today we've got some sunshine out there but of course that's been heating us up and while the heat advisory calls for the heated X as high as 110 looks like Moss Point we have a heat index right now of 14 14 dup points in the upper 70s low 80s doesn't really get much more humid than that even here along the Gulf Coast so again if you're going to be outside for much time at all today and probably for tomorrow this is approaching dangerous levels of heat with the heat index that high it just makes it much more difficult for your body to cool down whenever it's this humid and also this hot the sweat is not going to be evaporating nearly as efficiently as when we have dry air in place so that's what makes the humidity uh a little bit more dangerous down here with it being so high it's just overall just much more difficult for our bodies to cool down you know we're not really the only ones dealing with the extreme heat today in fact excessive heat warnings are in effect it looks like throughout parts of Memphis and up into the Mississippi Delta also dealing with some very high humidity there heat advisories extended up into the Northern Plains it looks like even in the parts of South Dakota we have the heat advisory in effect for for parts of Nebraska even seeing those excessive heat warnings up there as well and the reason why this heat is so expansive across the US is because we have a big Ridge of high pressure that's been building in across the Southern Plains and also the southeast now for us in particular and along the Gulf Coast the humidity is Sky High but of course uh the high heat a problem for a good portion of the lower 48 it looks like so anytime we get high pressure that generally means sinking air so as that air moves closer to the surface it heats up plus with sinking air we don't see as much rain nor do we see as much cloud cover so with more Sunshine naturally that's keeping us very hot and with us being so close to the Gulf of course all that moisture in the air is making it feel uh very very muggy outside so that's going to be the same setup over the next several days it looks like we better get used to it if we can for the time being looking at Satellite and radar just a few clouds here and there not really seeing much in the way of rain and while rain chances are slim I'm not going to completely reel out maybe one or two stray showers today many of us are going to stay completely dry most of the rain it looks like is going to be farther away from that Ridge more so to our East in the parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle it's kind of a copy and paste forecast tomorrow morning starting off in the 70s as we get into the afternoon we're going to be right back into the mid90s for the most part and just like today I'm not really ring out maybe one or two stray showers or thunderstorms most of us are going to stay rain-free tomorrow again maybe one or two thunderstorms but chances are you're not going to see much rain going into Wednesday and the same can be said for Thursday and Friday we're really just stuck in this summertime pattern for quite some time we'll keep that chance at about 20 to 30% over the next few days so while I can't completely roll out a little bit of rainfall most of us are going to end up staying rain-free over the next few days that is some good news if you have outdoor plans but of course that high heat still going to be causing issues uh for some of us and it may not be until early next week that our temperatures drop off just a little bit more but not by much we're looking at highs getting a little bit closer to normal or average for this time of the year in the low 90s uh at least for today tomorrow and Thursday we are expecting temperatures at least in the mid 90s if not the upper 90s north of I 10 but at least this week the Tropics are not too much of a concern for us however we are going to be watching out for some possible tropical development over the next few days so let's go ahead and talk a little bit more about what's going on in the tropics overall not a whole lot at this time but there is a big tropical wave that we are watching in the Atlantic and while I say it's big there's really not much to look at on satellite today it's just a generally a wide area of low pressure in the Atlantic it's to the east of the Lesser Antilles at this point it's where we have that orange x that's where we have that tropical wave that we're watching general area of low pressure but as we can see on satellite not much going on around it we don't really see too many showers and thunderstorms associated with the system and if the system does develop it's going to be a slow development over the next several days and in fact over the next two days we are not expecting any development out of the system it may not be until the end of this week that it start to get its act together a little bit more it's got a few obstacles that it's battling at this point one of the main ones being some dry air where we have some of that orange color on water vapor that's a lot of that dry air tropical systems don't like that they need a lot of moisture to work with but for the time being we're really not seeing too much of that around the Lesser an Tilly so it's battling some of that dry air we also are seeing some Saharan dust still over the open Atlantic not only is that air dry but it's also Dusty so uh again it's battling some obstacles at this point and even if it does start to develop a little bit more once it gets closer to some of those Caribbean islands it's going to be battling some of that land interaction uh that could hinder some of its development as well so a lot of uncertainty at this time with how much it's going to develop and then on the other hand there's a lot of uncertainty with where exactly this system May travel over the next few days now we have this big area of high pressure in the Atlantic what we call the Bermuda High It generally sits over Bermuda uh almost year round to be honest this is going to be helping to steer the system a little bit farther Westward over the next few days big questions as to where exactly it's going to go if the system becomes a little bit more organized and if the ridge is a bit weaker that could help the system move a little bit closer up the East Coast if we see this wave is going to be a bit weaker and if the ridge of high pressure is a bit stronger that could help to steer the system more so into the Gulf of Mexico now forecast models at this time generally kind of all over the place and that's what we expect to be honest forecast models right now not very helpful because the system hasn't even formed uh the European model has consistently shown the system moving up the East Coast the GFS or American model hence that this may be moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a weaker tropical wave uh but again take any forecast models you see on social media with a huge grain of salt I've even avoided showing them because like I said to be honest they're really just not very helpful at this point uh because the system just hasn't e even uh developed so all in all to wrap up what's going on in the traffics with this uh Atlantic wave it's just too early at this time to really predict its Exact Track and how intense it may get uh development of the system over the next few days is going to be pretty slow like I said it's battling some dry Dusty air if it starts to get its act together a little bit more over the Caribbean islands that's going to be hindering its development now typically speaking tropical activity picks up in August and September so while we're only watching One wave right now chances are over the next month two months we are going to be tracking a lot more heading into the tropics I know the past few weeks in general the tropics have been fairly quiet that's likely going to change into August and September now if the system does become a tropical storm at some point the next name on the list is Debbie but we have a ways to go before it may even uh become a tropical system like I keep saying this is going to be a slowly developing system it looks like over the next week or so as for today at the end of July uh we typically don't see too much tropical activity but once we get into August and September history tells us we see more of those tropical depressions and tropical storms and in fact roughly about 85% of tropical systems generally form after August 15th so we do have a ways to go before hurricane season is over not only in August and September do we have tropical activity even the beginning of October we can be dealing with some tropical storms um even throughout the month of October history tells us uh that we may have tropical systems I'm sure a lot of us remember back in 2020 we had hurricane Zeta and that was near the end of October just a couple couple of days before Halloween so can't let our guards down this tropical wave that we were watching is just an indication that the tropics starting to wake up a little bit more right on Queue and that's exactly what we expect but again it's going to be a while before we see anything develop if at all for the time being around here we just have a lot of heat and a lot of humidity up ahead in the forecast temperatur still going to be a little bit above average today tomorrow and to Thursday you may be lucky enough to see a few showers and thunderstorms uh cool you down a little bit but overall rain chance is still looking very slim especially today and tomorrow maybe there's a little more hope for some more rain by the end of the weekend and early next week but that's still several days out so we can fine-tune the details in that forecast but at least over the next four to five days it's just plain old hot it's plain old humid around here uh typically what we expect but just emphasizing if you're going to be spending much time out side day in day out that is going to be adding some stress to your body I know it sounds obvious but these heat illnesses can sneak up on you pretty quickly so we don't want anyone to get caught off guard uh with all of the heat building in over the next few days as for the tropics it's very much a wait and see situation I don't want anyone to panic at this point that's for sure we have several days to watch a tropical wave still a lot of unknowns where exactly it's going to go how intense it may get but this is a good reminder that we will start to see more tropical activity over the next month or so so just double-checking to make sure that we all have our hurricane plans ready to go just in case something does spin up over the next couple of months as we enter the peak of hurricane season uh but for the time being it's just going to be hot humid hopefully we can all stay cool hopefully your AC is working well because you will definitely need it over the next several days so with that I am going to be signing off you can catch me at WLX on channel 13 at 4:00 this afternoon for another forecast update we'll have the latest information there uh until then stay cool and stay hydrated