FIRST ALERT: Flood threat today, drier through the weekend (9/6/24)

e e e e well good afternoon this is meteorologist Aaron kobby let's take a look at some of the things that we are looking at out there right now it's been a very rainy day so far especially for our coastal areas and well we're expecting a lot more rain over the next day or two so let's take a look at what this looks like first of all let's start off with a couple of the alerts that are still in effect as of right now we are looking at a coastal flood alert this is for southern Hancock County this is because of the strong winds coming out of the East we could continue to see higher than normal Tides over the next 24 hours as that rough water and some of the heavy winds pushing a little that tide just a little bit higher than normal now there is also the flood watch this continues through Saturday morning and this is going to to be because of this continuous periodic Heavy Rain that continues to move on Shore this is for our Southern Three Counties is going to be for hanock Harrison and Jackson County now here's what things do look like out there at the moment we are still seeing very heavy rainfall move into portions of hanock and Harrison County beginning to make it all the way up into PR River County as of about just a little after 2:00 and we are still beginning to see some of those heavier bands approaching the area we will continue to periodically see some of these heavier bands move on Shore over the next couple of hours now this is all because of this low pressure system that we've been tracking over the past couple of days the stationary front just to our South allowing for a lot more rainfall and also supported by that low pressure system now of course the National Hurricane Center does have this area marked as a low chance of developing over the next s days now there is a very low chance of this developing as another cold front push is it uh once it we get into the weekend however even though this is not expected to develop into a tropical system we could definitely still see a lot of rainfall especially as we go over these next 24 hours you can see here very heavy rainfall especially for the immediate Coastline uh mainly south of I 10 we could be seeing 3 to 5 Ines of rain over the next 5 days the majority of that will be here within the next 48 hours so just about the next 2 days is where the majority of this rainfall will be falling because of that low pressure system now you look at just a little bit to the north and you see those Inland areas and it's not going to be nearly as much rain now this is very dependent on exactly how far north the stationary front creeps and exactly where that low pressure system ends up tracking but overall our further Inland areas are expecting a lot less rain with about 1 to 2 in expected some areas could get up to about 2 and a half if that low pressure system does move just a little bit further north than what is expected now one of the biggest concerns with this system is going to be the flash flooding potential mainly for Louisiana parts of New Orleans getting continuous rainfall could lead to flash flooding at times this is also going to be a problem for Hancock County that has seen a lot of rain already today now let's take a look at the future cast we do have several more heavy rain bands on the way let's go through this afternoon first you can see a lot of the lighter rain and some of those smaller heavier bands do make it through over the next couple of hours now tonight we could see the potential for more very heavy rainfall you can see here this is 11:00 tonight more of the thunderstorm activity and very heavy rain there in portions of hanock and Harrison County this does slowly move towards the east we do get some of that heavier rain making it into further into south Mississippi by about the 4 or 5 a.m hours and then 6:00 tomorrow morning very heavy rain still along our Coastal communities slowly making its way further Inland it does break up as it moves Inland over time so you could see Inland areas getting periodic Heavy Rain most of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will stay near or south of I 10 now let's keep on going into tomorrow afternoon and you can see here a lot of those rain bands do develop offshore the heaviest rain expected to stay offshore however we could continue Contin to see some more of those spotty showers and thunderstorms and periodic Heavy Rain slowly making its way further Inland throughout the day let's take a quick look at the weekend now we do have a little bit of a cool down on the way we do have another cold front approaching the area now this arrives early Sunday morning this is the forecast for 6:00 a.m. when the front uh does reach us at 6:00 a.m. on Sunday now this cold front will be bringing a lot of cool and much drier air into the area it'll also help push that low pressure system a little bit further away from us and also stops it from developing into a tropical system that's why there is a very low chance of this actually becoming a tropical system now take a look at how this does impact the forecast as this low pressure system moves up into you know from the extreme Northeast we could see this cold front dive pretty far south reaching Us by Sunday morning and then there you can see temperatures in Sunday and Monday morning could dive all the way into the 60s all the way here on the coast so a little bit of a taste of fall as we go into the late weekend and early next week rain chances also take a dip as you go into that same time frame Sunday 10% chance of rain 20% chance of rain on Monday and then we do begin to slowly work our way back up as we do build a little bit more moisture back into the area so let's talk about the tropics for a little bit we did talk about the system there in the gulf and there's four other systems out there that we're keeping an eye on all five of these disturbances low chance of developing over the next seven days no imminent threats to south Mississippi however the only two that are notable would be these two that have interests in the Gulf of Mexico now this tropical wave moving through the Caribbean this is the same one that we were tracking last week it's still there and continues to move a little bit further towards the West now beginning to approach portions of Central America in the Yucatan Peninsula you can see here still very disorganized lots of thunderstorm activity associated with this this will continue moving towards the west and a little bit to the north and will end up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of cichi and this could develop into a tropical system Over time however the next seven days there's a very low chance of that happening we'll keep an eye on it as it does meander through the southwestern Gulf but when once again there is no imminent threat to south Mississippi the other system we've been keeping an eye on is the of course the low press system that is bringing us all of this rain as we discussed there is a very low chance of this becoming a tropical system it has a very tight window in order to actually develop before that cold front arrives on Sunday however this is still marked it is a very low chance of developing and it will continue to very slowly creep over towards the east if regardless of of if it develops or not it's going to continue producing a lot of heavy rain we've seen a lot of rain from this already there's still another 3 to 5 Ines on the way especially for our immediate coastal areas mainly near and south of I 10 and of course we have had a fairly active start to the hurricane season earlier we did have hurricane Barrel Debbie and Ernesto three hurricanes two tropical storms we're already at the F name at the moment the next name Francine Gordon after that and as of right now once again five areas in the Gulf or in the Atlantic uh but all five with a very low chance of developing into a system over the next five days so let's take a look at the 7-day forecast here in south Mississippi very rainy the next two days because of that low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico our the cold front arrives early Sunday morning brings those rain chances down down and we do continue to see those temperatures go down as well Sunday and Monday morning we could see temperatures all the way down in the 60s e