FIRST ALERT: Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 to become a hurricane in the Gulf (9/9/2024)

e good evening everyone meteorologist Taylor Graham here wanted to give everyone a little bit more of an in-depth look of what's going on in the tropics specifically the Gulf of Mexico by now you probably have heard that we're likely going to see at the very least a tropical storm if not a hurricane develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and landfall along the northern Gulf Coast looking pretty likely at some Point by Wednesday or possibly early Thursday morning so we'll go ahead and take a little bit of a closer look into what's going on in the tropics let's see if I can get my Graphics to work here there we go so specifically we're watching what is now called potential tropical Cyclone 6 I know that's a mouthful but the reason why the National Hurricane Center designates these system as that is because it doesn't quite have a well- defined Center of circulation but but this allows them to issue tropical storm watches warnings and it also allows them uh to put out a forecast cone and I'll show you that here in just a few moments hurricane Hunters were flying through this broad area of low pressure today didn't quite find that well defined Center of circulation but it looks like we have had some wind speeds of about 50 miles hour within the system it's just not super organized at this time are seeing some of those thunderstorms developing with this area of low pressure where we have that brighter pink color on satellite that includes some or indicates some High Cloud tops which indicates uh some thunderstorm some towering clouds uh that may be a sign that it's strengthening a little bit more so PTC 6 likely going to become tropical storm Francine by the end of Monday and it's not going to be moving around too much over the next day or so once we get it to Tuesday Wednesday that's when it will start to pick up steam a little bit more notice there the National Hurricane Center's forecast the one put out at 4:00 has it becoming at the very least a category 1 hurricane before making landfall somewhere either along the coast of East Texas or into parts of Louisiana the cone of uncertainty a little bit wider up there there is some uncertainty with the exact track and part of the reason is it doesn't have a well-defined center of circulation so forecast models are going to be uh kind of wobbling here there it looks like until we get that well defined Center so even for us here in south Mississippi we really need to pay attention to this and because really track will determine everything especially if it makes a little bit more of an easterly track that would bring more impacts for us if it takes a bit more of that Westerly track more so into Texas I'm still expecting some heavy rainfall but our impacts may be a little less significant in terms of coastal flooding so track is everything and based on what we're looking at right now Heavy Rain coastal flooding and even spin up tornadoes are going to be possible for us as begin get into Wednesday and also into Thursday especially on Thursday morning also want to note too that uh good rule of thumb for people in the cone of uncertainty to always prep for a category higher than what's in the official forecast always good to be prepared even for us in south Mississippi even though we are not under the cone uh clearly this is a good reminder that things can spin up fairly quickly there's not a ton of time for some areas to prepare for this we're only talking just two or three days so always good to be on guard especially as we are in the peak of hurricane season uh this week so not unusual at all that we're starting to see more of this tropical activity let's see if I can get some of our uh spaghetti plots here to show you us some estimated tracks there we go forecast models even without the center of circulation fairly clustered around Texas Louisiana as potential landfall and again that is mainly looking to be at some point on Wednesday whether that's going to be during the day during the evening a little up in the air we'll have a better idea of that over the next uh day or so into Monday and Tuesday reason why it's going to be taking this track well we have an area of high pressure that's going to be in the mid to Upper levels near Florida and Cuba as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday so these tropical systems typically follow the edge of ridges that's what PTC 6 is going to be doing now if the ridge ends up being a little bit stronger that would nudge it to more of a Westerly track that would be better news for us in south Mississippi that would bring less of an impact if the ridge weakens a little bit that would raise a few more red flags for us that would cause a bit more of an easterly track for PTC 6 thus bringing us more impact so uh the ridge really going to be a key player into where exactly the system is going to go so that is something else we're going to watch but uh just a little bit of the signs behind why we expected to take this particular track up into Texas and also Louisiana so stay tuned uh again track is really going to be a big player into how much rain we're going to see how much coastal flooding we're going to see um so again we will be paying pay very close attention to that so this is our in-house forecast model uh we call it futurecast I'm sure you've heard of that as you've watched just over the air so generally showing some slower development over the next 24 hours and then it really wraps up it looks like by the end of Tuesday and into Wednesday now this particular run does show some heavier rainbands on the outskirts uh moving in by Wednesday morning even into the afternoon this particular run we just got in looks like took a little bit more of an easterly jog so that's something we will watch out for this more so takes the track into Central and Southeast Louisiana which that would be more impacts for us in terms of spin up tornadoes and heavy rainfall and also coastal flooding anytime we get these tropical rainbands there's a good chance of getting these very quick spin up tornadoes and they're often hard to catch sometimes sometimes they can uh develop in between radar scans so we really have to be on guard with those usually they're shortlived but they can touch down very quickly that's going to be one of our concerns with some of these rain bands potentially on Wednesday and maybe even into Thursday morning if some of those bands continue so not only that could see some heavy downpours uh this is from the weather prediction center this is their forecast amount over the next four to five days at least through Friday they potentially have some spots picking up three to five inches of rain in south Mississippi that's if we get some of those heavier downpours those heavier rainbands to move over us again if we end up getting a bit more of that Westerly track into parts of Texas rainfall amounts could be a little bit lower that easterly track certainly could bring more heavy rainfall for us uh and the ground fairly saturated with some of the rain that we had this previous week thankfully we were able to dry out yesterday today and tomorrow our rain chance is not very impressive but if we get too much rain in a short amount of time can't roll out some flash flooding on Wednesday and also into Thursday not only could we see a little flash flooding but coastal flooding could also be an issue with winds picking up out of the south and east by the end of Wednesday and more so out of the South by Thursday morning that could help to push some of that water a little bit farther Inland lowly areas we'll be having to watch out for some coastal flooding and just a heads up we are looking at high tide early th Thursday morning between about 4 and 6:00 um generally speaking Hancock County seems to be the most vulnerable spot I don't see any reason why uh that also wouldn't be the case this time around so if you live in a lowline area in Hancock County near the coast just a heads up coastal flooding probably going to be an issue uh once we get into Wednesday and Thursday that being said still could be an issue certainly for Harrison and Jackson counties as well U so rain may not be the only thing causing some flooding we may have some of that water push a little bit farther Inland late Wednesday and also into Thursday heaviest chance of rain or best chance of rain really going to be uh Wednesday into Thursday we have tagged those on our 7-day forecast as alert days uh we just want everyone to be prepared for that not only with the rain but also the chance for spin up tornadoes and that coastal flooding it's going to be Breezy or even windy that day I would say especially by the end of Wednesday into Thursday as the syst system starts to get a little bit closer to us uh again more that easterly track more impacts Westerly track into Texas that would mean less of an impact uh for us here in south Mississippi so as the system pt6 gets a little bit more organized get to that Center of circulation our forecast models are going to have an easier time tracking it plus with the hurricane Hunters flying in and out of these systems or this system that's also going to help out our forecast f as well so all in all Wednesday Thursday really going to be the days where we need to watch out for this tomorrow Monday there is a small chance for a few showers not much Tuesday really looking at more so of the rain right on the coast and offshore uh so if you need to make any preparations possibly uh tomorrow not a bad day for that uh rain's not going to be much of an issue it's going to be warm and a little bit more humid with highs in the upper 80s elsewhere in the tropics we do have two other waves that we're watching neither of these too much of a concern for us at this point they're not going to be impacting land uh at least in the uh short term as far as we can tell looks like these are going to be heading out to sea of course things could change but for the time being not too much of our concern clearly we are going to be monitoring PTC 6 over the next couple of days this evening nice quiet this morning if you were up early it was really nice outside we had temperatures in the 6s and low 70s the humidity was low as far as I can tell the humidity has increased and it looks like it's increased quite a bit we have D points back into the mid 70s so the mugginess in the air is returning just in time to kick off the work week but temperature is not too bad we're in the upper 70s it looks like in gopt eventually we'll drop down into the low 70s on the coast some upper 60s still possible a farther Inland the humidity won't be as high for some of our Inland areas tomorrow morning and Rain Chan tonight basically slim tonight we still have this boundary well to our South uh that's causing some of those showers and thunderstorms but it's starting to lift back to the north allowing a little bit more of that moisture to move in we can see that a big difference in Du points just across hadburg and here on the coast due point of 75 in gulport due point of 59 in Hattisburg so just a drive on Highway 49 uh makes a big difference in terms of the humidity uh if you're up into Wiggins probably not feeling it humid at this point but of course on the coast already starting to feel a little bit more of that moisture creeping in and obviously with more of that tropical moisture associated with PTC 6 is going to be more humid by the middle of the week in addition to that we are looking at much higher rain chances uh by Wednesday and Thursday so zooming in a little bit here locally for tomorrow I still wouldn't roll out a few stray showers can't completely be caught off guard with a little rain most of us are going to stay rain-free will be warm humid with temperatures in the upper 80s Tuesday I do expect us to have a better chance of seeing some showers especially closer to the coast Inland areas maybe not getting as much rain now if we get more rain and cloud cover on Tuesday it's not going to be as hot uh with highs more so in the low to mid 80s there are those alert days there Wednesday Thursday that's going to be the time frame where we may have Heavy Rain some Gusty winds spin up tornadoes if we remain on the east side or at least close enough to the system on the east side uh by Wednesday and Thursday so uh heads up there maybe you need to make some preparations never a bad idea to go through your hurricane Supply kit maybe you're low on a few supplies head out tomorrow grab those just in case things change always best to be overprepared than underprepared even if landfall at this time is looking to be a more so into Louisiana maybe Texas again always recommend being a little bit overprepared uh for that so tomorrow if you need to make any preparations uh Monday today that day is the day to do it uh Tuesday even not too bad still could be showery uh but Wednesday that's when things may be getting a little rough around the area uh with that heavy rain and coastal flooding now at least it looks like the system Moves In and Out fairly quickly by the end of Thursday most of those rain bands should be out of the way still could be Bree at times uh but by Friday and Saturday things are looking calmer quieter and also warmer with a little bit more Sunshine so current time right now is 9:20 um hopefully everybody can join us for our newscast at 10 o'clock that's when the National Hurricane Center will be releasing their latest forecast track and also intensity forecast for PTC 6 uh there is a good chance it will be getting a name tomorrow the next name on the list is Francine uh so you may be hearing that name thrown out a little bit more by Monday and Tuesday chances are it looks like it is going to be strengthening into a hurricane before making landfall uh so that does raise a few red flags especially for us on the Gulf Coast uh a bit more of that easterly track would bring more impacts for us so we will closely monitor uh not only tonight but also tomorrow as we get the latest data in the hurricane Hunters are going to be in and out of the system getting all the latest information that we can use for some of our forecast models so that being said I hope everybody can join us at 10 o'clock tonight for the very latest uh so with that I'm going to get ready for our newscast and I hope to see you there