GERMANY: ECB lowers key interest rate! What this means for the European economy

Published: Sep 12, 2024 Duration: 00:07:57 Category: News & Politics

Tags : 2024 news video TV europa nachrichten nachrichten aktuell EU aktuell welt n24 fernsehen Wirtschaft Deutschland EZB DSV Leitzins Schenker Unicredit Commerzbank

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Welcome to the midday stock exchange. The Danish logistics company DSV has won the bidding race for the rail forwarding company Schenker. DSV and Deutsche Bahn signed a preliminary agreement to purchase Schenker for around 14 billion euros. The supervisory boards and the federal government still have to approve the agreement . Despite concerns from employee representatives, the yes vote in the rail committee is considered certain. DSV thus prevailed in the bidding war against the financial investor CVC, which, according to negotiating circles, had offered slightly less. DSV and Schenker are numbers 3 and 4 in the fragmented global logistics market. Both employ around 75,000 people worldwide and most recently achieved annual sales of around 20 billion euros. The proceeds from the sale will go to the state-owned company Deutsche Bahn in order to pay off the mountain of debt of over 30 billion euros. In the Bundesbank's view, stability must be the focus of the possible takeover of Commerzbank by the Italian UniCredit . “We need strong and robust banks,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel on Deutschlandfunk. In the event of a bank merger, it is crucial that the business models complement each other and a competitive bank is created. The supervisory authorities would examine this closely, said Nagel. This week, UniCredit agreed to the federal government's announced sale of Commerzbank shares and also bought additional shares on the market. UniCredit boss Andrea Orcel expressed interest in taking over Commerzbank, which has been partially nationalized since the financial crisis. Overall, the Italians already hold around 9% of Commerzbank shares. The German state's share falls to 12% as a result of the sale. The takeover fantasy continues to drive the stock higher. It is currently up 2.7% today. On Wednesday alone, when it was announced that UniCredit had joined, there was an increase of 16.5%. On this and other topics of this stock market week, I would like to welcome stock market strategist Oliver Roth. Mr. Roth, do you think that UniCredit will succeed in taking over Commerzbank, and what will that mean? "I actually think the intention is clear. UniCredit will try to take over Commerzbank. They secretly bought almost 4% of the shares and are now at 9%. The chances of this happening are difficult to assess. The fact is that the German "The state still holds just under 12% of Commerzbank. In order to convince small shareholders and pension funds, UniCredit would have to pay a high premium. Whether they will be successful is difficult to predict, but they will definitely try." This week the ECB cut interest rates for the second time since the interest rate turnaround. Do you expect another rate cut at the next meeting in October? "That's possible, but I wouldn't consider it likely. The ECB will wait to see the effects of the last two interest rate hikes. I currently see the next interest rate cut as a 50/50 chance." Inflation is also falling noticeably in the USA. The inflation rate fell to 2.5% in August from 2.9% in July. The Federal Reserve is about to turn interest rates. How much will the Fed cut interest rates? "Currently there are bets on a 50 basis point rate cut, but it is more likely to be a 25 basis point cut. However, there are indications that a large rate hike could be possible to stabilize the labor market and stimulate the economy before the elections." What does this mean for the future prospects of the DAX? "I believe the DAX will start the coming week stable, around 18,500 to 18,600 points. A small interest rate move will calm the market, a large interest rate move could provide a significant tailwind." Thank you, Mr. Roth, for your assessments. Let's look at the DAX again today: It can continue to grow, up 0.5% today. The interest rate cut fantasy is causing optimism, including at Fresenius. Analysts at JP Morgan have raised the price target for the healthcare group to 40.10 euros and set the rating to “overweight”. Fresenius shares are currently up 3.1%. The price of gold is also benefiting from fantasies of interest rate cuts in the USA. He continues his record hunt and peaked today at 2,500.33 US dollars. It is currently slightly lower at $2,466.

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