Trump Might Have NO Paths To Victory

Published: Aug 23, 2024 Duration: 00:04:55 Category: News & Politics

Tags : Breaking News us news Kamala Harris politics donald trump trump campaign progressive news the young turks tyt trump polls the ring of fire trofire politics today rof farron cousins farron balanced

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According to all of the latest polling data, and I do mean all of it. There is not a single outlier poll right now that shows Donald Trump winning. So all of the polling data right now tells us that not only does Kamala Harris have a roughly four to six point national lead, but she is also leading in a vast majority of the swing states. Now that information is not new. A, anybody listening to this understands that that has been the case for quite some time. Now, you also understand that Harris is now winning on most of the issues. The only area where Donald Trump still holds a small advantage over her is on the issue of immigration. But because immigration is not the number one issue for voters, it's really not that big of a deal. But here's the other part of this and, and this is where things start to get a little more technical. We gotta put on our political scientist hats right now because it doesn't matter what the national popular vote is, those are the ones showing four to six points going to Harris. What matters is the electoral college and based on the advantage. The advantage is, I should say, that Harris has, right now, she actually has multiple different paths to winning the 270 electoral college votes that she needs because of her lead in these swing states, whether it's Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, doesn't matter. She can afford to lose some of them, which some polls still have Trump ahead in Nevada and Arizona. Some haven't ahead in Georgia. But if she just picks up a couple of the other states like a Wisconsin and a Pennsylvania done, or if she doesn't win Pennsylvania, but she does get a Wisconsin and North Carolina and an Arizona, where again, some of the polls do show her ahead in Arizona, she wins or get rid of Arizona, replace it with Nevada, she wins or get rid of Arizona and Nevada. But she manages to take Georgia, where right now there's a statistical tie keeping Wisconsin and North Carolina. She wins, give her Pennsylvania and North Carolina and maybe one of the other smaller states that's not Wisconsin. She wins. You get the point. She has multiple different paths that she can go that end in victory for her. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, because of the way the electoral college votes are scattered, he's left right now with almost no path forward. He is not winning in Wisconsin. He is once again losing in North Carolina. He is definitely behind in Pennsylvania. So even if he were to take Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. So what you'll still lose, that's not gonna help you. Oh, and by the way, Michigan also was another one. I'm sorry I left out Michigan. Um, and that's a big one too. But Trump is definitely not winning Michigan right now. So Trump would have to pull Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and North Carolina away from Harris in order to win this thing. Because for the most part, most of the red states in this country are not supplying tons of electoral college victory, right? Like, oh yeah, Trump's gonna win Montana, he's gonna win Wyoming. Well, Wyoming has three electoral college votes, folks that, uh, that no offense to anybody in Wyoming, but that doesn't matter. Montana, small population, small votes, doesn't matter. The Dakotas, what's that gonna do? Alabama still not a ton of votes. And now there's even talk of the possibility of Florida being in play. Harris can win this election multiple different ways. Donald Trump only has like one path to victory, and that is Kamala Harris's campaign imploding as bad as Trump's campaign is, and it doesn't look like that's gonna happen unless we find out that Kamala Harris on the weekends likes to go hunting for puppies. I think she's pretty safe, , but who knows? I don't wanna get overly optimistic, but the way things are looking right now, Trump is headed for a massive landslide defeat come November.

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