NFL Player Prop Picks Week 1 Thursday Night Football: Ravens @ Chiefs | TNF Week 1 Best Bets

[Music] welcome to the pr snap podcast presented by linar your top prop bets for Thursday night football's contest week one NFL action is finally here alongside Tyler wean I am Shannon summer we got some great prop bets for you plus we've got touchdown calls and of course we'll tell you which side we're kind of leaning in terms of uh if you guys are betting the sides or the over under for example so let's get into this Thursday night Showdown the AFC Championship rematch between the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs last season a bit of a disappointment for the Baltimore Ravens who had a poor showing Lamar Jackson and Company just could not take down Kansas City Chiefs on their way to a second straight Super Bowl so revenge on the mind of the Baltimore Ravens in this one it's been 222 days since that AFC Championship Game Tyler how pumped are you for this game uh I am just pumped we got NFL back I mean this game is going to be a very good one it's great to start the season with such a marquee game but I am pumped NFL is here and I am so ready to be talking football right really no better contest to kick off NFL season than Patrick momes going up against Lamar Jackson also kind of just a overall chess match between these two coaching staffs as well so it'll be interesting to see how both squads shake out a little bit different than they were last year we've got some improvements to the offense for the Ravens but same thing can be said for the Chiefs who got themselves a nice Speedy wide receiver so when we get into these prop bets we're going to be talking about a lot of those new things this season and what you can look for in this game we'll give you our three prop bets that you can find Underdog fantasy chalkboard sleeper parlay play if you don't have those apps download them use the promo code linar though so you'll get a deposit match plus you'll also get one free month of the linar app a tool that will help you tremendously not just in prop betting with our props AI tool but also in your DFS as well so make sure to check it out linar app.com and again that props AI tool that's been helping us in MLB season now we can take it to NFL season week one we're starting things off with Lin Stars pick and then Tyler and I will give our picks for this Thursday night game first pick is going to be Lin Stars props AI pick and linear going with Derrik Henry over on 65 and a half rushing yards can't argue with King Henry here linear's proje in 75 rushing yards and he's been over nine of 17 last year granted it was with a different team the Titans he was averaging 68.6 per game but now he gets an even better offensive line and less competition for targets remember Keon Mitchell's on the pup and you've got no JK Dobbins or Gus Edwards remember they're now with the charger so it's King Henry's show and last year the Kansas City defense gave up the fourth fewest passing yards great defense but they were kind of middle of the road in terms of rush yards allowed in fact they were 15th in yards per game allowed to the running back that's something that we had thought they would exploit in the AFC Championship game but just six carries in that game for the Baltimore Ravens something I think they learned their lesson they're going to change starting week one here tonight I think Todd monan learned his lesson hey they brought in Henry for a reason they're going to give him the ball what do you think Tyler yeah I think King King Henry is going to use get the ball a lot and I love the spot I think 65.5 for him is just way too low especially in a game where it's likely going to be close coming into the fourth quarter I could see the Baltimore uh Ravens in blowouts kind of eat up on the use of Henry I just don't think that's going to be the case in this game in week one Henry is new with the team I think they're gonna want to give him the ball and see what their new toy can do and when you look at kind of the overall game plan you have to think they're going to try to run the ball a lot just to keep the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes so that could be the direction that the Baltimore Ravens go and if they do why not give it to King Henry he can get it down on the ground and as can Lamar Jackson too but I like um the spot here for Derrick Henry to go over 65 and a half rushing yards so I totally agree with line star spot here now it's time for you and I Tyler to pick Our Best Bets of the night what do you got all right I really like my bet but I don't think anybody would guess it I going to go with Justin Watson over 14.5 receiving yards at minus 115 our lonar projections 23.2 consensus is 16.6 there's no Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy is in his first NFL game as a rookie Andy Reid typically brings up on rookie wide receivers very very slowly Rashid rice had an amazing season last year but only played 31% of the uh games or sorry snaps week one sky Moore the year before was a rookie played 19% of the snaps these guys were high-end draft picks just like worthy I don't expect worthy to jump in and play 60 plus percent of the snaps without Hollywood Brown and with worthy playing you know more modest amount of snaps I think uh Justin Watson is in a great spot to go over 14.5 now if you look at last year he wasn't even playing that much but at the end of the season he was playing more than Sky Moore and averaged for his career 15.9 yards per reception he was over in 13 of 19 games last year now we're in a situation where I expect him to play a 50 to 60% of snaps week one and I think 14 and a half is just way too low if he's on the field that much well I see your spot with Justin Watson there but I'm gonna take a shot on the rookie I see your logic there I I get what you're saying with Andy Reid he does like to kind of ease rookies into things but I'm just going to take a shot here on one of the fastest wide receivers frankly we've ever seen over 45 and a half receiving yards line star's projection is 55.2 I think maybe the Chiefs will want to get worthy going early especially you mentioned Hollywood Brown out for this one Baltimore's defense does have some question marks with the departure of their defensive coordinator Mike McDonald remember he's now the head coach of the Seahawks they also like lost a lot of defensive guys like Patrick Queen javien Clowney so I think we will see Andy Reid try to exploit some of those weaknesses on Baltimore's defense rice is also a first rounder I do think this is a risky play though it's kind of maker break on a couple deep balls this is the Deep ball threat this is a guy who ran a record-breaking 4.21 at the combine the fastest man in the NFL the last time the Chiefs had a pretty Speedy wide receiver he didn't do too bad with Patrick Mahomes either Tyreek Hill had himself a nice career with the Chiefs this could be I I'm not saying he's gonna be Tyreek Hill but he's pretty fast so I think he could beat out some of those Baltimore Ravens uh secondary to get a nice deep shot for Patrick Mahomes and get him going early what do you think I love Xavier worthy as a talent uh I do worry how much he's going to be on the field week one really the first half of the season I worry uh it does help that Hollywood Brown is out I I expect Watson to probably run as the wide receiver too maybe micole Hardman a little bit uh but wory going to be on the field and I would not be surprised that when he is they're calling some stuff you know specifically for him and I mean that amount of speed with momes it only takes one uh one ball to go over and it can definitely happen but uh I definitely prefer Watson but that's why it's my pick and you got your exactly exactly and you guys can make your own informed decisions but yeah I do agree that it is a bit of a Mak or break I think there will be a couple deep ball shots that they take down the field do Xavier worthy whether he can live up to the hype of the first game it you know that's the risk that you take with taking a rookie on week one of NFL props but here we are we're going of them could both of them could work absolutely yeah Watson could end up playing only 40% of snaps but he gets one reception for one reception for 16 yards while worthy goes for 60 or something you know like there's there's many pass I just think that Watson line is way too low well let us know what you guys think in the comments of our picks for today if you have have any locks make sure to drop them in the comments if you can do us a huge favor right now like this video subscribe to the channel and comment below and you're automatically entered into our prop bets contest if we go three for three on our picks how about we give out $50 to a randomly selected comment journ we'll announce that on the next show so got to be in it to win it we need your comments below plus you also have to like this video as well and you're automatically entered into our contest also helps out our YouTube algorithm so you're doing us a service and also doing your self a service hopefully we can go three for three and give out some money set off this money gun that we have here in the studio and that Tyler has one as well so we're ready to ready to go for this NFL season now it's time for Touchdown calls of the game Tyler where are you headed for your first touchdown call of the 2024 season I'm going to go with Rashid rice plus 165 for Touchdown I just think this pricing is absolutely wrong for him KC loves to throw in the end zone and over the last eight weeks of last season he had 12 Red Zone targets which led the Chiefs Travis Kelce only had eight meanwhile Travis Kelce is plus 105 so Sports books has Travis Kelce as the favorite even though rice got way more Red Zone looks towards the end of the year and I think rice is going to get it in week one Let's uh let's go let's get on the touchdown board all right let's get it R for my pick I am going to none other than the Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews plus 170 for a touchdown this is Lamar Jackson's favorite Target he is back he is healthy and I think he's going to get the ball in the end zone six touchdowns last season in the 10 games that he played in the regular season 65 250 he's got that tight end Bild that is tough he had just two receptions in the AFC Championship game I think that was a mistake that they learned from they got to get him more involved in the passing game in this one this is an athletic great pass catcher and just amazing chemistry with Lamar Jackson I think Mark Andrews gets a touchdown for the Ravens in this one and at that price tag at plus 150 for one of Lamar Jackson's favorite targets I like the price tag and the value that we're getting with that as well Tyler what do you think of my 65 250 pound tight end touchdown call to start things off I mean he uh he's a beast in the end zone especially Beast with uh Lamar under Center there so you can't go wrong with a plus 170 TD call I wanted to go Derrick Henry but I feel like the value just really wasn't there for that one so yeah I mean he was money not great yeah so you know for those touchdown calls I like to see if we can try to get some value on such an you know kind of a bit of an unpredictable outcome in football so next up though we're talking betting the size in this one this is a tough one to handicap right now the Baltimore Ravens are threo underdogs Tyler which way do you lean in this one one I'm going to take three go Baltimore Ravens I've actually considered about uh laying the Plus one30 for the Baltimore money line as well oh I don't hate your logic there it is hard for me to go against the Chiefs though at Arrowhead but you know what and I actually wrote down Chiefs on my notes but I'm actually gonna go the other way with this one now that I've been just talking about Mark Andrews you know Lamar Jackson's getting his favorite Target back they're healthy he's got Z flowers he's now got Derek Henry a beast an absolute just H Truck of a guy who's going to run over some of those Chiefs Defenders and the Chiefs Defenders they're missing a couple pieces so it'll be interesting to see how Steve Spagnola is going I mean he's they have a great defense there's no arguing that but I think the uh Baltimore Ravens are out for some revenge in this one so I don't mind you know taking the road underdogs in this one so yeah I'm going to roll with Lamar Jackson the MVP and the and the Ravens in this one I changed my mind right on the spot there all right so those are our picks the over under the game total right now 46 some places 46 and a half are you going over or under I'm gonna go under on that I I think yeah while both offenses are kind of electric and KC got some new tools what we saw last year of KC and I expect for this game they pretty much have the same offense as last year I don't expect were they to play a lot so uh with that you know they weren't a high-scoring offense last year I don't expect them to be week one either especially against a decent defense no Baltimore can put up points but they're G to try and play slow and keep this game close yeah I agree with the game plan for Baltimore kind of try to slow things down a little bit keep it on the ground keep it away from Lam um Patrick Mahomes in this one also unders were 11 and six last season on Thursday Night Football um and the game last time that these two teams face each other in the AFC Championship games it was just a point total 27 it was a very low-scoring Affair the defenses were just kind of dominating in this one and it just kind of came down to a couple offensive plays here and there so yeah I like the under as well in this one especially given the fact that that was kind of the trend with Thursday Night Football what we saw last year so I I think that's kind of maybe how things will start also you got both squads probably shaking off some Jitters heading into week one but hey this will be a good game either way looking forward to finally getting back to some football again if you haven't already do us a huge favor like this video subscribe to our Channel and comment below we've got tons of football content coming your way including Tyler's DFS breakdowns as well we'll also be breaking down Friday night's game in Brazil that'll be a good one and make sure to tune in to our week we l Underdog fantasy pick them show plus we'll also have weekly props for you guys just tons of content so make sure if you haven't already subscribed to the linar YouTube channel and again let us know your lucks we're all here to help each other beat the books let's go win some money good luck out there guys see you next time