Trump's CRAZY Claims, Harris's SKYROCKETING Polls, Debate Night FEVER | Bulwark Take

hey everyone it's AB Stoddard at the bull workk I'm back with my friend and our fearless leader uh Bill Crystal he is the co-author of morning shots and also editor at large of the bull workk and we are awaiting polls like a lot of other people um they're not coming in quickly enough for me Bill uh but I did find a Florida Atlantic University political communication poll out last night that showed so today's Wednesday that showed Harris lead Trump by four percentage points and I thought the most interesting part was she has a double digit lead with Independence winning 48% to his 35 more importantly that was a huge boost over her previous numbers in this poll I guess a month ago when she was getting 45 to his 43 with Independence so that's interesting but uh no the Florida Atlantic University poll is not the one we were waiting for so I know you talked to Doug snik for your conversations podcast what are you thinking about the state of the race before we see all these polls yeah I think people are overdoing actually the polls which are if they they will show some bounce for Harris as the Florida Atlantic one does but on the other hand that always happens after a convention and the question is does the bounce subside or not which is hard to know ahead of time you know how How Deeply rooted is it in people's judgments how much it is hey I saw some of that convention it was kind of nice and then a week from now they see an ad by Trump saying Harris is soft on crime crime or immigration and they Chang their mind again right you just don't know right away how so serious this and this is unusual I mean so many ways but just again come back to the fundamental point about this race this race is a 15-week race it's been going five weeks she's had a very good five weeks uh and if you which the last was the convention probably went from something like minus two or three to plus three or four maybe I I'd be surprised if it goes up too much above four maybe five to six but I think that top number would be a little soft she's done what she had to do or what she could do I guess is I put it in these first five weeks including with the convention in terms of re introducing herself her own image uh being Centrist being patriotic Trump's floundered a bit I think he's actually pulled himself together and the campaign seems to be a little more organized the last few days and they're just going to go on the attack on Harris you know ruthlessly and mercilessly in every which way they can I don't know how much they don't seem to have quite settled on what issues or what aspects of Harris are most she's most vulnerable on and that's probably good for Harris for now but the key point to make is we're five weeks in two week we're talking Wednesday two weeks less than two weeks from now it's the debate presume it will will happen on September 10th right so that's the next segment and I don't think you know it's possible she'll be up seven going into the debate it's possible she'll be up one or two more likely in between and in any case the debate becomes very very big one key Point Doug znik who was Clinton's political director as you know very smart I recommend if I could this conversation that I had with him that's now up online you know he really goes through a lot of different aspects of the campaign and of strategy one point he makes is um very strongly is that you just can't you can't overestimate how important is that this is unlike every other campaign and and you know she she gets the nomination in effect five weeks ago uh they 10 weeks left we're onethird of the way through it right and normally as as Doug likes to said said in the in the in the conversation with me one thing he used to say in speeches all the time was you know the media is going to focus on a couple of things they're going to focus on the VP pick they're going to focus on the conventions they're going to focus on the debates history suggests they very rarely make a difference voters kind of know if they want to reelect the incumbent president or not the debate Romney you know Obama has a shaky debate he loses a point or two he gets it back the next debate you know voters go back to where they want to be basically which is a verdict on the incumbent or or judgment about the basic agendas and characters of the two candidates we don't have that this time and we have the basic judgment on Trump but Harris's and flock still not that well known and so the convention the VP pick picks both of them the conventions both of them I would say and the debate or debates become extremely important I mean stic main point is this is the opposite of every campaign pretty much he's been involved in and then every campaign of the last three or four decades and not just in this somewhat limited way but it's worth generalizing that point that all of our assumptions may not be quite right as we transfer them from twoy year twoe long campaigns to 15we campaigns what are your feelings about about what Harris needs to do in the debate she needs to do well obviously but do you have anything sort of specific in mind Mona and I spoke about this yesterday and how telsey Gabbert is helping prep Trump for the debate and that Harris seemed in debates in 2019 to get a little thrown off when she was insulted or attacked I am not worried about her responding to Trump's attacks because Trump is a joke he attacks everybody any attack on her that that he launches is going to be helpful to her in my view what did you and Mona I haven't seen it yet what did you guys sort of focus on what what struck you I don't think that Chelsea gabber got the best Mona thinks she did I disagree of Harris in that debate now Senator Harris says she's proud of her record as a prosecutor and that she'll be a prosecutor president but I'm deeply concerned about this record there are too many examples to site but she put over 1500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana she blocked evidence she blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from Death Row until the courts forced her to do so she kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the State of California and she fought to keep cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way I think uh telsey gabard will likely probably lull Trump into a false confidence that women are you know at some level get nervous and thrown off by big strong men who are dominant figures and commanders and Chiefs like himself because that's the way people talk to Trump um I think that in terms of the interview coming up I wanted an interviewer or more than one as I wrote the other day before the debate so that she could be versed in answering these questions that make her nervous and of course she'll have to address Biden's cognitive decline uh which I think she can do because I don't believe that I don't believe the American vote any voter in in really I mean except for the most Mega like cult members who want to use this as a cudgel I don't think American voters believe that vice presidents ever come out and say the old man I'm working for he's gotten too old and he's passed his sell date and he can't do the job anymore that only happens in the movies and people No One Believes she was ever going to come out and and do that so so what are your thoughts in terms of what she has to accomplish at the debate what are the moments she's dreading and how should she handle them I mean I do think it's as always with these debates and I've been involved in one at least one vice presidential debate I was CR chief of staff and then pretty Qui pretty close attention that year and was marginally involved in on the bush preparations too um very marginally I've got to say um one thing one should always remember it's the overall impression that matters the most unless there's just one moment Quail you know Benson moment that that that leaps out Ford in 76 with Poland being uh know not controlled by the Soviet Union but that's not usually the case so then it becomes a question of so that's one thing to think about we come back to that in a second if you want but the other thing it's the overall impression I mean Sask made this point which I is very true candidates get better in the course of long campaigns if they're good candidates I mean Clinton and Obama would be the two best cases of that they were not great when they started in their presidential campaigns and they did a ton of debates in PR for primaries and by the time and they won and they they gave zillion speeches and a million interviews and by the time they got there in October to the ACT September October to the presidential general election debates even though they were fairly untested they' not run for president before for example they were ready they were ready right Harris has the huge advantage of not having to gone through a go through a Democratic primary like 2019 nightmare not having gotten beaten up being fresh new exciting and all this which she has been for the last five weeks it's a very big Advantage I think on the other hand she's the big same the flip side of that is the big disadvantage of she hasn't done a debate since what October 2020 against Pence very different situation where Pence was VP debate where they were each you know defending and promoting their their principle that's a very different dynamic I the good news is she could do great new fresh wow look at kamla Harris I never really saw her before she just took it to Trump she defended herself she explained her own bio and her own agenda and she punched Trump in the nose once or twice fantastic or yikes you know she got a little flustered she didn't really explain what she would do she wasn't able to answer why she quote failed as borders are and and gave money to Minnesota in 2020 for a bail fund you know all the obvious Trump attacks I don't know I mean I just think that's sort of the bigger question is just is she can she get herself she's been very impressive in these five weeks and getting herself suddenly ready for being a presidential General general election presidential candidate which is not easy and she wasn't quite ready in 2019 and being VP is a mixed blessing you do learn a lot obviously you're used to a certain amount of pressure and attention but on the other hand you're just not the number one person so it's just so different yeah I think the interview will be telling a little bit tomorrow night in the sense of just how comfortable she is how much it's the kamla Harris of the convention speech how much it's the kamla Harris of 2019 being a little thrown by one or two tough questions but again even an interview for half an hour with Tim W sitting next to you at a certain amount I'm sure of banter and you know what it's like and all this it's very different from a 90-minute debate with Trump who for all of his flaws which are many uh you know he's not going to let up on her he could look like a bully that's another question how he comes off but any I'm very I think it's a huge is it's a huge moment to debate in two weeks and a very unpredictable wi honestly you talked about how she's doing well in controlled environments and you think Trump is doing a little bit better and has pulled himself off the brink because that he's in controlled environments I I I do want to let you know that he did an interview with Dr Phil and he said that if Jesus Was the vote counter in 2020 he would won California if Jesus came down and was the vote counter I would win California okay in other words if we had an honest vote counter a really honest vote counter I do great with the Hispanics great I mean at a level that no Republicans ever done and he blamed to some extent he says Biden and Harris for his assassination attempt he says when this happened people would ask whose fault is it I think to a certain extent it's Biden's fault and Harris's fault I'm the opponent they are weaponizing government against me they brought in the whole doj to try and get me they weren't too interested in my health and safety okay then we have this new superseding indictment where Jack Smith the special counsel has tried to clean up his previous indictment within the lens of the new Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity presenting the same four charges as he did before but he's removed some evidence that could be construed as Trump acting as a president so what remains is him acting as a private person in private capacity as a candidate so with all that aside it's back in the news he's trying to really juice it he wants to raise money over it um he's giving freewheeling um interviews Jesus is not going to be the vote counter on November 5 bill and we know what he's you know laying the groundwork for here in terms of he is definitely nervous about the debate is want debate KLA Harris what what are your thoughts on Trump going into the debate and he's gone you know bananas in so many ways in the last two weeks do you think he's like calming down and readying himself for this understands like the stakes is sober about how serious it is I don't know I don't know I mean I think before the Biden debate he was somewhat equally probably unhinged in a lot of what he said on social media and what he said about 2020 and so forth maybe not quite as much but and then he pulled himself together and did what he had to do for the Biden debate obviously the story of the Biden debate was Biden but Trump did well by his standards he got you know towards the end he got a little he was so confident that he got Unleashed himself a little bit and obviously did so at the convention I don't know if he's maybe I'm overstanding it to say that I I suspect he's sort of pulling it back together a little bit but I feel like even in these interviews he doesn't look like a crazy person SAS M always says turn the turn the sound off you know and just look at him he's talking to Dr Phil he's talking of various podcasters I've never heard of uh but he looks like he's out there he's not scared of them he doesn't look like he's you know nuts sort of visually you know what I mean I'm worried that people are under are overestimating how bananas he is and underestimating that he'll get it together enough again he's not going to convince all of us who think he's utterly and totally unsuited to be president but those marginal low infation voters are they going to be turned off by him they could be if he bullies K Harris I think I mean the gender gap could explode even more than it already is which is pretty massive in a way that helps her I think he could make mistakes don't get me wrong you know the the indictment I just say a word about that all my lawyer friends are happy Smith did the right thing he had to narrow it because of the immunity decision but he did so in a very you know sound legal way and isn't good to remind people I actually think it's a political matter it's probably helps Trump there's not a single person who's moved by J January 6 who's going to be gee I forgot about January 6 and now I'm reading some story on page 11 of the you know the people don't need newspapers anymore but on you know samw and social media that there's like a new version of the indictment they already people who think he deserves to be punished as you should be for January 6 are already there I do think among a certain type of low information voter this that the Biden weaponizing justice department they're coming back it's almost just just over 60 days before the election there's another indictment they can't get any of these indictments through the courts because they're all you know problematic from legal and constitutional point of view this is Trump's line obviously um you know and here's just that just going after me again I don't know if it really helps him because I think the people who respond to that already are for him anyway but I think the notion that it's adding a brick in the case against Trump I really don't agree with that actually I would have been perfectly happy just to let it sit there and be the old indictment and just say the courts incidentally has helped Trump and that's why you can't elect Trump again because he's goingon to put a lot of prot trump judges on the courts you know like Eileen Canon uh so I don't know I I maybe maybe I'm overdoing it I've always aired on the side of worrying about Trump doing better than people expect sometimes I've been right sometimes I've been wrong here luckily but I I'm I'm a little nervous that people are too cocky that Trump's just going to be out of control in two weeks he he can do a lot of idiotic stuff on TR social that he doesn't unfortunately pay much of a price for but when he knows he's on National Television for 90 minutes he can pull it together enough to maybe reassure some of the Swing Swing voters he he has I think the bullying of of her could be big though that something he that's something he he hasn't ever quite I'm not sure he's ever figured that out how do you handle a younger woman a black woman in this case uh you know how does he he he'll want to attack her but it's not quite as easy as attacking Biden I don't think do you think I don't know that's so interesting bill um because I agree with you I think he has the ability to show up and control himself if he doesn't it's just going to be be so bad for him I mean if he's having a bad night and he Rants and Raves he looked far more in control than Joe Biden on June 27th but I was interested to find later after you and I were on this live stream afterwards it was like so traumatic and then in the days that followed I learned that there were all these you know undecided lowi information not politically engaged voters who watched and the did the dial thing and really thought that he was lying and saying the same old thing and Phil bustering and I found that sort of surprising that that that there are people that also like he is we forget he's been around and they kind of see even if they're not engaged in politics like they see him doing his like same routine again one point Trump said I don't know what he's talking about I don't think he knows what he's talking about either I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence I don't think he knows what he said either like he actually can't help but being mean like being mean is part of his like what he thinks is like his superpower it Domin is so important to him that I I do think it'll be really hard for him to walk that's really a good that's really a good a good point and maybe that's right I mean I guess the one thing I'd say to Harris just thinking back on this again I mean I think it look she's benefiting hugely from the people did not want a trump Biden race and right she's benefiting hugely from being the person who's not Trump but also who's not Biden she can't yeah say it quite that way of course but I if I were prepping her I'd just say you gota you do not want to get in a tit fortat with Trump on this I think she'll be tempted to and I think maybe I'm wrong maybe she should maybe she needs to punch him in the nose maybe she needs to say wait a second that's wrong but I get nervous if it becomes Trump Harris tit fortat it's sort of not that different from Trump Biden in a way so she just happens to be younger and female and so forth but I mean whereas I think she needs to what's helped her so much in these five weeks has been the ability to sail above it and you can do that when you're giving speeches to Friendly crowds you can't do that in a debate I understand so maybe I'm being unrealistic but somehow she she has to at least begin with the posture that I'm going to make my case to the American people Donald you go ahead and make your case and you know that's my attitude not my attitude isn't I'm coming in looking to sort of Stick it to Donald I think that's a bit of a recipe that's what the Republican candidates the Trap they fell into in 2016 a little nervous about that for her now she has internalized very well so far the notion that it's got to be about her and about new forward change and so forth I hope she my general recommendation but I I don't have confidence in this I got to say is to stay on that path a little more than a lot of our friends would want who want her to really call him a convicted felon don't let him get away with anything don't let him lie say in the first five minutes that he's a criminal I don't think that's a good idea actually yeah again a balance a straddle for her right that she she want and it's kind you wrote about this yesterday that she's called him in her nominating speech and un serious man in so many ways but the threat and the danger of him is quite consequential and serious and so I do do want her in the 990 minutes to at least once or twice get to that when the moment is Right tot she has to get to the smer I don't want her to keep smiling and offer tomorrow tomorrow um the whole time because it it right it it like sort of normalizes the threat of trump like we can't just treat him like crazy grandpa who's kind of a goofball and that's um what makes and you and Tim we're talking about this Monday what makes a lot of Voters who aren't politically engaged sort of think well he can't be that threatened because he's kind of a goofball so it is going to be a balancing act and there was a new commercial out from them today or maybe last night on Project 2025 that I thought was great and it's the end they have him saying it takes time to get revenge Donald Trump may try to deny it but those are Donald Trump's plans well Revenge does take time I will say that and sometimes Revenge can be justified he'll take control we'll pay the price I saw the ad I thought it was pretty good and I do think I look I'm very much struck that the project 2025 stuff seems to have caught on so making the case for the danger of trump the forward-looking case project 2025 I think is very very important to kiss you say you can't just normalize it into just two kind of parties and you just chck pick what which one whose tax plan you like better or something you got to make that point you got to make the point about Ukraine and the danger to International order that Trump faces but I think her attitude going in is that that's those are the points she wants to make she'll obviously respond she'll have to think through how she wants to respond to him when if he insults her and goes crazy and it's you know comrade kamla and there's a moment for indignation there you don't want to become Mike Dukakis and be so disciplined that you don't get annoyed you don't get angry when he insults you personally and your family personally and I thought her family stuff was very very good at the convention and I I kind of wish you had done a whole bunch of interviews over the last two weeks honestly I think you you wrote this and I totally agree with you it just helps you get more comfortable you're putting a lot of weight on yourself if you have one big interview Thursday night and maybe she'll do more the week it's still what it'll still be another week yeah yeah so she has time but you know what even if some of them go a little bit Ary it's still I just think she'll be so much more comfortable but I don't know her that well and I don't know maybe she's comfortable already you know I mean she certainly has done she's done well you got to say the main thing she and the campaign have done well and probably the main reason to be somewhat optimistic is you know they've had five weeks to screw up and they haven't so why not the the safer bet if you're baseball if you're a basketball team your baseball teams been winning for five weeks the safer bet is probably that they know what they're doing and they'll keep on winning um one thing I do want to say about her not making mistakes and doing things right is they plan in this Georgia swing this week to go into some rural areas which I think is excellent and they don't intend they know they can't win them but they think if they can shave the margins in these areas um her n Waltz um and he of course you know knows a lot about rural issues a issues whatever so they're going to do all that football coach stuff and everything but but he is genuinely a small town American I mean that it doesn't get more than that I think that is so smart and I think it's really important to brag about it to say I'm going to places that are not friendly to Democrats and are not like dying to you know hear from from us and we we want to listen to them I I mean that is a good use of the time and the money in the in the 10 weeks left don't you think very much so yeah and I think it doesn't just affect Georgia though that's a very important state rural voters in North Carolina and Rural voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania see that and they think hey you know what she's in a town kind of like the town I live in and she seems to be talking to people who are might have Southern Accents if you're in Pennsylvania you don't have that accent but they're they're not so dissimilar so I I think people always political reporters are very into when you get sophisticated you understand there's seven states the matter and this is the col culus in this state and this is where you know you need to go get these voters but they missed the sort of national implications of some of this stuff this was very 92 with Clinton and Gore the bus tour didn't just help them in the particular States they took the bus to you know it just gave a sense of what they were doing as a pair as a and I think doing it with wal as smart I think the two of them is stronger than that each of one point I mean she he's been a good pick they have a good gen generally the image of the democratic party we saw at the convention was positive I think and if they can do a bus St through Pennsylvania with SH the two of them and Shapiro went through Michigan the two of them and wher and other people too I think it helps Trump's Always by himself that's ego it it's it's required and I think at the end of the day voters get a little sick of that as you sort of suggested and you know kind of like the idea of seeing I didn't know there was this young Governor somewhere in in you know Pennsylvania or Gretch Whitmer in Michigan we all know her but voters don't really know her and that's good that they they're all like working together you know I think that's a good image for her to to advance so yeah know I'm I'm I'm for them campaigning together one one point we should get off at one point sik made is the Vance pick uh he does think hurts Trump more than a typical bad VP pick and partly just because he is not an experienced politician and he won you know by a few points in Ohio where he should have won by a lot more uh after this huge amount of money was spent on his behalf in 2022 and that's it that's his elector history you know in a red State uh but also that his weaknesses play into Trump's weaknesses the weirdness the intolerance the mean-spiritedness it sort of it reinforces what people are nervous about about Trump it's sort of whereas if he had picked someone else he might have had someone who could take the edges off that and make you know Trump gets along with Tim Scott what's there's no problem they say that he's bigoted this means but Tim Scott seems like a nice guy and he gets along with Trump so what's the problem what Vance is sort of the opposite impact so I think I think highlighting making the VPS a little more important than they normally are and one way you do that is by traveling with the VP obviously if you're Harris I think is a good a good tactical move yeah always being with Waltz makes it more forward-looking you forget about Biden the other thing is somebody has to in a way that Harris can be too afraid to do because it is disrespectful to Joe Biden some outside packs or surrogates need to say if Trump who's going to be the oldest who is our oldest um nominee ever and would be our oldest ever president if he croaks do you want JD Vance to be president I'm sorry that sounds mean but that is effective and JD Vance doesn't want nuns to be teachers because you know they've never had kids whatever he is such a liability in this way and he juices exactly the people that she needs again you it can't be her because of the Biden the Biden Factor she has to be very careful of always looking low but you can have someone else asking that question right if this old man goes or has a pro health problem do you want JD Vance to lead the Free World and you know that's I agree I think he's he's such a liability okay we didn't get to North Carolina there's plenty of time talk about that um I want to poke your brain about it but Bill we I look forward to talking to you next Wednesday everyone who's tuned in today make sure that you come back to the bullworks YouTube channel we always have something going too much going but um you'll learn a lot and you'll laugh a lot as well thank you Bill thank you ab and we'll see you next time see you next week